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Possible Storm / Strong Wind Event 2nd November

135

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    M6 buoy dropped 4.6mb in the past hour.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,654 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Would be good for a moderator to edit thread title to today's date, remove ? and add level 2 alert.

    This appears to be an intense meso-scale low which could generate wind damage across parts of the south and later central counties as it tracks generally northeast across the country from about the Galway-Mayo border to Antrim.

    Wind maximum likely to track from Kerry/Clare to Dublin/Meath and timing would be something like 0900h southwest, 1300h central and 1600h north Leinster. Potential for sustained winds 55 kts and gusts 75 kts, models have not necessarily missed this but the scale is so small that we need to do this old school. This could produce wind damage mainly trees down, power cuts and minor structural damage.

    Will leave the details and tracking to the forum members as I have to file numerous forecasts but if I feel the coverage needs a boost I will add more later.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,487 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Looking at the websites there is a lot of lightening in west Galway at the moment, I could see flashes in the Limerick area.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,471 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    Wind really picking up here in Waterford City coupled with heavy rain. Max gust so far 56km/h


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,065 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    The met have their eye off the ball here. Damage looks a cert for places like cork waterford. I'll stick my neck out here n say someone will record a gust of 90mph


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Was blustery here for a while as the front passed through. Less windy now again.

    I'm a little surprised that Mace Head is the only location reporting gale force at the moment, and only just.

    We'll see how things progress as the morning goes on.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,471 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    Was blustery here for a while as the front passed through. Less windy now again.

    I'm a little surprised that Mace Head is the only location reporting gale force at the moment, and only just.

    We'll see how things progress as the morning goes on.


    Yes Maq winds have eased somewhat here. Current Avg. 20km/h Gusting to 40km/h. Top gust this morning 59km/h


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,654 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sherkin Island had higher gusts earlier and has gone off line (power cut?) ... UK buoy west of Valentia has had sustained 41 kt winds for about 4 hours, and ship report near Cobh last hour showed 53 kt. Some of the models showing a very tight gradient across southern half of Ireland by 12z and deeper low despite land passage. This is pretty much what the Monday low was doing across eastern England and the North Sea. I also factored in that the leading wave lost energy but brought in very high moisture and dew point energy available for later deepening. This is also one of the rare cases that I mentioned in a different thread where my research gives me a reason to suspect intensification so for me, this went to the action side of marginal as soon as I saw the actual upper air data around 0300h. There is quite a tight gradient at 500mb above this small system. Add in the very high SST values and I think we have all the necessary ingredients including strong wind shear aloft and a well-timed pulse of solar sourced geomagnetic pulse. Anyway, seems to be pivoting now west of Clare with two meso-scale vortices evident on recent satellite loop, the southern one likely to dominate from here on. If you're north of a line Westport-Knock-Omagh there will only be moderate east backing to north winds until the low is into Antrim or beyond and then your winds will pick up to join what is likely to be a country-wide windstorm mid-day to mid-afternoon. Gradient appears to tighten almost all day so could get very stormy around Galway and Mayo, and almost as bad further south. Good calls by some yesterday, I was suspicious but could see the thing perhaps failing to ignite or taking the long way round, however this looks like a direct hit on the central corridor Galway to Dublin (eventually, for time being Cork is most at risk of damaging gusts).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 316 ✭✭chipsdave


    On The Galley Head coastline here wind has been blowing harder than I have heard for a while , would certainly be worried about power outages , sky quite bright now though as it was very grey there about an hour ago.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13 brianville


    chipsdave wrote: »
    On The Galley Head coastline here wind has been blowing harder than I have heard for a while , would certainly be worried about power outages , sky quite bright now though as it was very grey there about an hour ago.

    I agree, experiencing serious sustained winds in bandon area


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  • Registered Users Posts: 261 ✭✭aboyro


    Don't have an accurate wind reading but its stronger than 20kph out here. it should have peaked wind wise at this stage,yeah??? expecting to see a good storm surge at high tide 4pm or so. :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,230 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Max gust here so far 61 KMH


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,471 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    aboyro wrote: »
    Don't have an accurate wind reading but its stronger than 20kph out here. it should have peaked wind wise at this stage,yeah??? expecting to see a good storm surge at high tide 4pm or so. :D

    Gust of 45kt or 83km/h recorded in the last half hour at Waterford airport.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,067 ✭✭✭✭fryup


    sounds rough in ballybunion


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,055 ✭✭✭Red Nissan


    Good and windy here, was woken about 05:00am: Break: Tower Road Tree Down: could not get back to sleep.

    My own WS [sheltered] 49km/h @ 09:10 baro still dropping 986.1 hPa


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Widespread gusts even inland from 100-110 km/hr this evening as winds veer westerly.

    13110218_0206.gif


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,055 ✭✭✭Red Nissan


    Wind turning tropical here, higher sustained wind, a little difficulty in walking, sustained 22km/h via hand held Kestrel.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    STATUS ORANGE

    Wind Warning for Cork, Kerry and Waterford

    Becoming extremely windy in coastal areas. West to southwest winds, veering west to northwest will reach mean speeds of 60 - 75 km/hr with possibly damaging gusts of 110 to 130 km/hr

    Issued:
    Saturday 02 November 2013 09:00
    Valid:
    Saturday 02 November 2013 09:00 to Saturday 02 November 2013 18:00

    .


  • Registered Users Posts: 261 ✭✭aboyro


    Gust of 45kt or 83km/h recorded in the last half hour at Waterford airport.
    serious squall about 5 mins ago. i'll have the camera ready for the next one


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    I expect gusts in the Dublin region to reach 60 knots or 110 km/hr this evening.

    If i was to predict would say Dublin AIR, 7pm: 62 knots.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,654 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Low clearly visible on radar over Galway Bay. Circulation is rather slack out to about 984 mb at present then tightens up between that and 992 mb. Obviously the Kinsale platform is high up but sustained 55 kt gusting 69 kt. If this gradient is drawn north by deepening and track to northeast, would expect widespread damaging gusts inland. If you're near the track of the low watch for the calm eye conditions and a very gradual increase rather than anything sudden. I think peak winds in Galway might be around 3-6 p.m. Dublin around 5-9 p.m.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,198 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Low clearly visible on radar over Galway Bay. Circulation is rather slack out to about 984 mb at present then tightens up between that and 992 mb. Obviously the Kinsale platform is high up but sustained 55 kt gusting 69 kt. If this gradient is drawn north by deepening and track to northeast, would expect widespread damaging gusts inland. If you're near the track of the low watch for the calm eye conditions and a very gradual increase rather than anything sudden. I think peak winds in Galway might be around 3-6 p.m. Dublin around 5-9 p.m.

    when would you say peak conditions for the southwest i.e cork and kerry? blustery in north cork but nothing too severe.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,230 ✭✭✭pad199207


    According to radar the eye is slap bang over the Aran Islands


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,710 ✭✭✭weisses


    Some people are still asleep i guess

    http://www.meteoalarm.eu/en_UK/0/0/IE-Ireland.html


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,710 ✭✭✭weisses


    when would you say peak conditions for the southwest i.e cork and kerry? blustery in north cork but nothing too severe.

    Same here in Dingle (exposed location)

    Will post updates as day progresses


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Starting to pick up again here in Waterford now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 261 ✭✭aboyro


    http://axis-78tramore.axiscam.net/view/index.shtml

    just look at the lamp-posts on tramore prom right now!!!! a new take on lamppost watching:D


    click on zoom view


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    aboyro wrote: »
    http://axis-78tramore.axiscam.net/view/index.shtml

    just look at the lamp-posts on tramore prom right now!!!! a new take on lamppost watching:D


    click on zoom view

    Grand day for a cone. :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 261 ✭✭aboyro


    as they say in waterford "me candy floss just blewed away boy"


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Updated :
    STATUS ORANGE

    Wind Warning for Wexford, Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Waterford

    Becoming extremely windy at times today in coastal areas. West to southwest winds, veering west to northwest, will reach mean speeds of 60 to 75 km/hr with possible damaging gusts of 110 to 130 km/hr.

    Issued:
    Saturday 02 November 2013 09:00
    Valid:
    Saturday 02 November 2013 10:00 to Saturday 02 November 2013 18:00
    STATUS YELLOW

    Wind Warning for Dublin, Louth, Wicklow and Meath

    West to northwest winds will reach mean speeds of 45 to 65 km/hr with gusts of 90 to 110 km/hr, mainly in coastal areas

    Issued:
    Saturday 02 November 2013 09:00
    Valid:
    Saturday 02 November 2013 16:00 to Saturday 02 November 2013 23:00


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Seriously? The Met are issuing warnings now? This system has been progged for 5 days now and not a peep out of them. Crazy.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,654 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wind max could jump north so that a few locations in west Kerry might not ramp up too much, eventually your strongest winds around Tralee might come fairly late in the afternoon but I think what's going to happen is that the south coast wind max will just give way to a central wind max as the circulation tightens up around 12-13h.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    A swathe of gusts to 60 or even 65 knots will affect a swathe of the country this evening. Enough to down weak trees. Will be an interesting watch as the low moves over us.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,198 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Seriously? The Met are issuing warnings now? This system has been progged for 5 days now and not a peep out of them. Crazy.

    yeah you and maq have been watching this very closely. has the system gone further north than originally expected?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,471 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    49kt or 91km/h recorded in the last half hour at Waterford Airport. 70km/h at my more inland station

    www.waterfordcityweather.com


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    yeah you and maq have been watching this very closely. has the system gone further north than originally expected?
    It is pretty much on track, it is heading quite far north but the initial swathe of winds is well south of the centre. This gradient will change later and the strongest winds will be when the low clears the east coast overnight. Will not be a pleasant evening especially in squally showers where winds will gust to 110 km/hr or even 120 km/hr on occasions.


  • Registered Users Posts: 402 ✭✭cyclops999


    What sort of conditions can Midlands expect later on.


  • Registered Users Posts: 227 ✭✭diceyd


    take care and be safe everybody


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    cyclops999 wrote: »
    What sort of conditions can Midlands expect later on.

    Later this afternoon and evening winds will gust to as high as 90/100 km/hr inland.

    There appears to be a peak intensity in the wind gust area near Dublin with gusts from 100-120 km/hr this evening from 5-10pm


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 789 ✭✭✭Turnipman


    Really wild and windy on the Mizen - my neighbouring weather station (Schull) has recorded gusts of up to 60 mph.

    Heavy showers have been passing through since around 02.00 but they've generally been of very short duration - a couple of minutes and they're gone.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,198 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Wind max could jump north so that a few locations in west Kerry might not ramp up too much, eventually your strongest winds around Tralee might come fairly late in the afternoon but I think what's going to happen is that the south coast wind max will just give way to a central wind max as the circulation tightens up around 12-13h.

    its relatively calm here right now..not too much wind at present.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,055 ✭✭✭Red Nissan


    We've gone calm.

    Baro is showing a dip and dropping again now v slowly @ 986.5 hPa.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Interesting that there was no gales reported at 10am at any coastal station.

    I'd expect that to change in the southwest over the next couple of hours though.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,230 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Pressure down to 981.2mb here now and falling very rapidly -22.3mb last 24hrs


  • Registered Users Posts: 93 ✭✭Clamball


    Calmed down totally in Cork City now, thankfully.


  • Registered Users Posts: 219 ✭✭Penname


    Pressure falling in North Kildare. Reading 982mb but falling rapidly. Lowest recorded pressure on my station which I've had almost a year. Highest windspeed today has been 21kph but my ISS isn't in a great position so I suspect it should be higher.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Looking at the NMM-8, it does show this weakening of winds until 11-12 when strong winds reach the southwest again and continue in over the country until around 8pm exiting the east coast, with areas nearer the coasts with the strongest of the gusts of course.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭Lumi


    The wind has started to pick up again here in Galway city
    WNW'ly, Mean 20mph , Recent gust 42mph

    Barometer 979.25 hPa: Falling -0.80 hPa/hr


  • Registered Users Posts: 34 phillo65


    What would ye think on this hitting Sligo.Have a dodgy tree thats going Monday and dont want it to fall the wrong way before.Long time follower of this forum and find it interesting,educational and entertaining.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 20 crispydolphin


    Horrible wind in the south-east


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