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August weather ONLY MOD NOTE : #213

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13567…11

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    #62
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    jdsk2006 wrote: »
    It seems I do. Was originally thinking wexford going by met eireann long range ...... I'm a very confused bunny today
    Oh well, good to have choices. I hear with Met Eireann it is weather by committee anyway, as they decide models to go with each day..


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    #63
    omicron
    Registered Users Posts: 818 ✭✭✭omicron


    Kenring wrote: »
    I write for the farmers, not for the critics. Always easy to find fault and cherrypick the failures. Farmers are the most sceptical of all groups because they have to be the most practical. That's why I like dealing with them as clients. They call a spade a spade. But they are fair because they know longrange forecasting is about trends, not one date here or there. Also, they know one month out doesn't mean you throw away a system. If I didn't think I was pleasing them I'd soon take something else on. Radio shows still ask for interviews and they say it is by popular demand. So presumably I am delivering enough for those who are my target audience and if I can please them I am more than happy.

    There is no cherrypicking required to find the failure. In fact it requires considerably more cherrypicking to find the rare occasions when you've been right.

    So you forecast that the main silage harvesting month (June) will be warm and dry and it ends up being cold with record rainfall, and you still claim to have a great system?


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    #64
    Eamonn121
    Registered Users Posts: 9 ✭Eamonn121


    Crazy weather today in Dublin


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    #65
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    omicron wrote: »
    There is no cherrypicking required to find the failure. In fact it requires considerably more cherrypicking to find the rare occasions when you've been right.

    So you forecast that the main silage harvesting month (June) will be warm and dry and it ends up being cold with record rainfall, and you still claim to have a great system?
    I certainly do. Check the facts for June yourself here.
    ref: http://www.met.ie/climate/MonthlyWeather/sum1.pdf
    "June 2013: sunny and dry in many places; warmest in the west"
    (no mention of record rainfall.)
    Met Eirreann: 1st-9th: unsettled with showers.
    me(from almanac): 1st-9th: regular rain

    Met Eirreann: 9th-10th: dry
    me: 9th-11th: mostly dry

    Met Eirreann: 10th-17th: wet, cooler
    me: 10th-17th: more widespread rain

    Met Eirreann: 18th-19th: dry, warm
    me: 17th-19th: fine and mostly dry

    Met Eirreann: 20-30: unsettled, warmer and drier by end of month
    me: 26-28 widespread showers, cloudy 26th-29th, dry 30th

    So what's the problem?


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    #66
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 16,720 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    So eh, any interesting charts for the August Bank Holiday weekend?


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    #67
    relaxed
    Closed Accounts Posts: 572 ✭✭✭relaxed


    Kenring wrote: »
    I certainly do. Check the facts for June yourself here.
    ref: http://www.met.ie/climate/MonthlyWeather/sum1.pdf
    "June 2013: sunny and dry in many places; warmest in the west"
    (no mention of record rainfall.)
    Met Eirreann: 1st-9th: unsettled with showers.
    me(from almanac): 1st-9th: regular rain

    Met Eirreann: 9th-10th: dry
    me: 9th-11th: mostly dry

    Met Eirreann: 10th-17th: wet, cooler
    me: 10th-17th: more widespread rain

    Met Eirreann: 18th-19th: dry, warm
    me: 17th-19th: fine and mostly dry

    Met Eirreann: 20-30: unsettled, warmer and drier by end of month
    me: 26-28 widespread showers, cloudy 26th-29th, dry 30th

    So what's the problem?


    Take a read of your comments from last year, seems you got June completely wrong, that's the problem I think, you haven't a clue!

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=79637127

    Also, reading that thread it's seems it was a 3 day out rule last year, now you claim 24 hours.

    Furthermore it was 80% accuracy last year, now it's 85% accuracy.

    A stopped clock is right twice a day, we could all make forecasts based on reasonable long term historical patterns and then try and spin it when things go wrong, blowing it all out of proportion when things go right.


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    #68
    relaxed
    Closed Accounts Posts: 572 ✭✭✭relaxed


    blackbird99 wrote: »
    quote "The southwest, particularly Limerick, may be the wettest county, and Louth may be driest."
    safe enough bet there
    met eireanns climate map for rainfall
    climate_rainfallmap.gif

    original thinking from ken on that one!


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    #69
    Popoutman
    Registered Users Posts: 1,363 ✭✭✭Popoutman


    Ken, why not enter the August forecast prediction thread?

    As it stands, you've got nothing left to lose by joining in. It would give you a good comparison as to how your corecast would stand against other forecasters, and there's absolutely nothing wrong with that.


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    #70
    SeaFields
    Registered Users Posts: 6,551 ✭✭✭SeaFields


    Kenring wrote: »
    I'd head for Co. Kerry.
    jdsk2006 wrote: »
    Hi all, Anyone able advise me where in ireland to go camping for next 6days? We leave tomorrow and we are willing to drive wherever to the driest spot!!

    A section of the Ring of Kerry between Glenbeigh and Cahersiveen is closed this evening after a landslide due to torrential rain.


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    #71
    jdsk2006
    Registered Users Posts: 204 ✭✭jdsk2006


    SeaFields wrote: »
    A section of the Ring of Kerry between Glenbeigh and Cahersiveen is closed this evening after a landslide due to torrential rain.

    Omg :eek:


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    #72
    Nabber
    Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Kenring wrote: »
    So now you have two opinions to choose from, jdsk2006.

    i hope your opinion wasn't picked.
    If you choose Kerry as a joke, shame on you.
    People come here for advice, deliberate erroneous advice is dangerous.


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    #73
    gihj
    Registered Users Posts: 232 ✭✭gihj


    Nabber wrote: »
    i hope your opinion wasn't picked.
    If you choose Kerry as a joke, shame on you.
    People come here for advice, deliberate erroneous advice is dangerous.

    The poster asked about rainfall starting tomorrow.
    A landslide today in Ireland could mean 6 dry days from tomorrow on or minimal rainfall.

    I must say i find some posts on this thread and the general attitude to Ken disgraceful.
    If you doubt his methods then fair enough if you can pick them apart but some posts are just downright nasty.


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    #74
    Deank
    Registered Users Posts: 7,238 ✭✭✭Deank


    gihj wrote: »
    The poster asked about rainfall starting tomorrow.
    A landslide today in Ireland could mean 6 dry days from tomorrow on or minimal rainfall.

    I must say i find some posts on this thread and the general attitude to Ken disgraceful.
    If you doubt his methods then fair enough if you can pick them apart but some posts are just downright nasty.

    I think you'll find the problem people have with Ken is that he is making money from these so called predictions, if MTC did that and got it wrong he'd be subjected to the same level of scrutiny.


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    #75
    gihj
    Registered Users Posts: 232 ✭✭gihj


    Deank wrote: »
    I think you'll find the problem people have with Ken is that he is making money from these so called predictions, if MTC did that and got it wrong he'd be subjected to the same level of scrutiny.

    Well then if you dont agree then dont pay money.
    Absolutely no need for some of the things written on here.
    I mean that whole landslide comment from today when the timescale in question is the next 6 days.
    Utterly ridiculous really.

    And for all MTC's great work he will be the first to admit he cannot get it correct all the time.
    Nobody can.


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    #76
    Deank
    Registered Users Posts: 7,238 ✭✭✭Deank


    gihj wrote: »
    Well then if you dont agree then dont pay money.
    Absolutely no need for some of the things written on here.
    I mean that whole landslide comment from today when the timescale in question is the next 6 days.
    Utterly ridiculous really.

    And for all MTC's great work he will be the first to admit he cannot get it correct all the time.
    Nobody can.

    Mr. Ring thinks he can and never admits when he gets it monumentally wrong, as for his forecast links, especially the Indo one, which he posted earlier predicting good weather on certain days this year, I've checked all of the data and he was miles off, this is not a personal attack against Ken it's his methods and I'm sure he's a sound bloke. When you pay for something it shouldn't be broken.


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    #77
    Tornando9
    Registered Users Posts: 203 ✭✭Tornando9


    gihj wrote: »
    Well then if you dont agree then dont pay money.
    I mean that whole landslide comment from today when the timescale in question is the next 6 days.

    The next 6 days will be very wet going by the latest GFS, ECMWF, Hirlam and UKMO.
    All of these organisations use multi-million euro supercomputers and the majority of them run data 4 times daily and have hundreds of highly skilled techs and meteorologists along with mathematicians involved in producing the data and forecasts.

    Ken uses the moon.

    He then tells someone to go to the wettest county in Ireland camping for one of the wettest weeks in a long time.

    Go figure..


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    #78
    relaxed
    Closed Accounts Posts: 572 ✭✭✭relaxed


    Kenring wrote: »
    I write for the farmers, not for the critics. Always easy to find fault and cherrypick the failures. Farmers are the most sceptical of all groups because they have to be the most practical. That's why I like dealing with them as clients. They call a spade a spade. But they are fair because they know longrange forecasting is about trends, not one date here or there. Also, they know one month out doesn't mean you throw away a system. If I didn't think I was pleasing them I'd soon take something else on. Radio shows still ask for interviews and they say it is by popular demand. So presumably I am delivering enough for those who are my target audience and if I can please them I am more than happy.

    I wouldn't call them clients, I would call them victims.

    Why send a lad to Kerry camping when the safest bet, according to both met eireanns current forecasts and your guesscast based on reading met eireanns charts for the last donkeys years, would be Louth.

    If you were an amateur I would say fine, but charging for this crap us no better than fortune tellers taking advantage of gullible people.


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    #79
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    Nabber wrote: »
    i hope your opinion wasn't picked.
    If you choose Kerry as a joke, shame on you.
    People come here for advice, deliberate erroneous advice is dangerous.
    No, absolute shame on you for assuming I would first joke and send an erroneous forecast, and further that I would give a dangerous forecast in order to cause someone harm. You have no evidence for either statement and it is just mischievous. It is like deciding someone is a criminal because you don't like his face and then having him arrested for nothing.


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    #80
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    relaxed wrote: »
    I wouldn't call them clients, I would call them victims.

    Why send a lad to Kerry camping when the safest bet, according to both met eireanns current forecasts and your guesscast based on reading met eireanns charts for the last donkeys years, would be Louth.

    If you were an amateur I would say fine, but charging for this crap us no better than fortune tellers taking advantage of gullible people.
    What on earth are you taling about? I have not charged anyone for my forecast information here.


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    #81
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 23,816 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    This is becoming tiresome.


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    #82
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    Tornando9 wrote: »
    The next 6 days will be very wet going by the latest GFS, ECMWF, Hirlam and UKMO.
    All of these organisations use multi-million euro supercomputers and the majority of them run data 4 times daily and have hundreds of highly skilled techs and meteorologists along with mathematicians involved in producing the data and forecasts.

    Ken uses the moon.

    He then tells someone to go to the wettest county in Ireland camping for one of the wettest weeks in a long time.

    Go figure..
    Aren't you all jumping the gun? I know there is a time difference between NZ and Ireland, but I wasn't aware it was 6 days.


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    #83
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    Popoutman wrote: »
    Ken, why not enter the August forecast prediction thread?

    As it stands, you've got nothing left to lose by joining in. It would give you a good comparison as to how your corecast would stand against other forecasters, and there's absolutely nothing wrong with that.
    No Popoutman, as you can see here there is one rule for me and another for the rest. I would either be disqualified because I use the moon, or because someone thinks I am an astrologer or a fortuneteller, or that I once got a week wrong 10 years ago so therefore I must be a conman. There is already rancour because I make a living from forecasts, whereas Met Eireann staff and weather anchors and media columnists who also make a similar living seem good guys. I can't even give out free forecasts here without there being, for some, something wrong or evil about that too. So why should I waste time entering a competition? It is not a level playing field here.


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    #84
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    Larbre34 wrote: »
    This is becoming tiresome.
    Agreed, but I fancy some posters may be trying to get this thread closed in case what I have said about August comes to fruition. I hope it's not true and time will tell. But the tactic has worked in previous years. I understand there are professional meteorologists here who do not like too much oxygen being given to alternative systems of forecasting.


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    #85
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    Just posting this if anyone is interested
    http://www.climatedepot.com/2013/07/26/new-paper-finds-lunar-tidal-cycles-influence-climate-study-published-in-the-international-journal-of-climatology-finds-the-18-6-year-lunar-tide-cycle-influences-rainfall-and-climate-over-adjacent-lan/


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    #86
    jdsk2006
    Registered Users Posts: 204 ✭✭jdsk2006


    Ken ring do you still stand by your original recommendation for co Kerry? I wonder is the worst of the rain over by now and is driest overall?

    By the way I have no interest in the war of wills going on around here....I just wanna give my kids a nice camping trip :)


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    #87
    octo
    Registered Users Posts: 321 ✭✭octo


    Ken, welcome back.

    My understanding is you use the saros cycle, 18 years and 11 days, to make your forecasts. That is, you believe the weather gets recycled every 18 years and 11 days. At least the forecast of yours I've seen, which somebody paid good money for, was a direct copy of the daily data from the nearest Met Eireann synoptic station from 18 years and 11 days previous. I know you talk about other cycles, like the Metonic cycle, but this is your modus operandi, is it not? A recycling weather system supposedly caused by the moon? That nobody else has managed to figure out?

    As 18 years ago from this summer was 1995, a fantastic summer in Ireland, that would be the reason for your very optimistic forecast for this year, would it not?

    How do you think this summer is turning out compared to that one? What about all these heavy showers? I don't remember them from 1995?


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    #88
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    jdsk2006 wrote: »
    Ken ring do you still stand by your original recommendation for co Kerry? I wonder is the worst of the rain over by now and is driest overall?

    By the way I have no interest in the war of wills going on around here....I just wanna give my kids a nice camping trip :)
    I never change a forecast when I set it down, it is fixed in concrete like the tide tables. Perhaps Met Eireann are better suited for short term forecasts because my work is basically about trends. My wet spells are 1st-2nd and 6th-10th in the first half of August. For 1st-2nd a cold front brings scattered cloud and some isolated to light showers through most districts, although the southeast is expected to be mainly fine and dry. From my point of view the driest up until the 5th should be Kilkenny in Leinster; and Tralee, Killarney and Cork in Munster. I hope that helps.


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    #89
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    octo wrote: »
    Ken, welcome back.

    My understanding is you use the saros cycle, 18 years and 11 days, to make your forecasts. That is, you believe the weather gets recycled every 18 years and 11 days. At least the forecast of yours I've seen, which somebody paid good money for, was a direct copy of the daily data from the nearest Met Eireann synoptic station from 18 years and 11 days previous. I know you talk about other cycles, like the Metonic cycle, but this is your modus operandi, is it not? A recycling weather system supposedly caused by the moon? That nobody else has managed to figure out?

    As 18 years ago from this summer was 1995, a fantastic summer in Ireland, that would be the reason for your very optimistic forecast for this year, would it not?

    How do you think this summer is turning out compared to that one? What about all these heavy showers? I don't remember them from 1995.

    I wonder if Andy Doyle is happy with you sharing the content of personal emails on boards?
    I don't just use one cycle, as I have said before, it is the solar cycle that is responsible for amounts of rain and the lunar cycle for rain timing. For lunar cycles the saros is important for eclipses, and they set the stage for large weather events down the track. The nodal cycle is the main cycle responsible for the recycling of seasons. The metonic and double metonic can give fairly accurate repeats of weather maps.
    When it comes to daily forecasts trends must narrow to a focus, which is where critics love to find fault.
    As for Andy Doyle, I have nothing but praise for him and if he is reading this I wish him well and thank him again for his open mindedness. His name only came up in my response to a question here.
    Heavy showers are in my almanac and I called for flooding in the last week of July, especially in central counties around 25th-27th.


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    #90
    Cee-Jay-Cee
    Registered Users Posts: 12,235 ✭✭✭✭Cee-Jay-Cee


    Deank wrote: »
    Ahem sorry to step in here but MTC is far from an amateur, with regards to Mr Rings predictions (no disrespect intended) but even a stopped clock tells the right time twice a day.

    I meant MTC and the other amateur forecasters not that MTC was an amateur.


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    #91
    Cee-Jay-Cee
    Registered Users Posts: 12,235 ✭✭✭✭Cee-Jay-Cee


    rainbowdash wrote: »
    So what to do you want us to do here, just agree 100% that Ken Ring is the future of weather, close down Met Eireann, and wait for Kens tweets.

    Its different points of view that make all these threads interesting.

    Similarly it's different people's forecasts or weather predictions that make the weather forum interesting.

    You don't have to agree with anything you don't want to but would it be do hard to simply accept that the are differing views on this topic. I never said anywhere that ME should be closed down or that any one person or organisation should be the sole provider of forecasts. I never advocated KR or anyone else. I simply stated that KRs forecasts were every bit as valid as everyone else who posts in this forum and that you should lighten up a bit (which you really should as you seem to read way more into things than was intended)


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