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Summer 2012. What will it be like?
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Someone with a weather station is a meteorologist, in my view. You are certainly not a florist or a heart surgeon. I also have no qualifications that make me a meteorologist, in fact in my country there is only a trainee-ship run by the Metservice itself, hardly a university degree.
Thats crazy criteria to use for calling someone a meteorologist, if thats the case we have a huge number of meteorologists here. I work as I.T. Engineer, weather is a hobby interest for me.Now please observe I did not attack you, you have chosen to help get this attacking ball rolling. I am just responding because anyone is entitled to defend themselves when they are quoted unfairly. And yes, to call to account my right to express my ideas in a discussion forum, or my right to earn a living does make you the self-elected Thought Police. Your ploy in the past was to get a fight going in order to get the thread closed, lest anyone started agreeing with my points. So prove me wrong by ceasing to be critical of me. Prove you are here for adult discussion by expressing ideas and not personal put-downs.
I haven't attacked you I have stated my opinion of your forecasts and the excuses you use when questioned on them.
You predicted a dry June and we had the wettest June ever in places, the 3 day excuse won't work there.
For as long as you post long range forecasts in this open forum I will give my opnion.
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Nope, sorry, I never predict anything. I give opinions, same as you, same as Met Eirann unless they use the word "will". As I said, there is an 80% expectancy. I never claim 100%, no one does. 80% means 2 months per year potentially out. That allowed June to be out. I have explained I expected heatwaves in Europe in my almanac. That could mean unexpected convective rain in Ireland. How many times do I have to say this?:rolleyes:Thats crazy criteria to use for calling someone a meteorologist, if thats the case we have a huge number of meteorologists here. I work as I.T. Engineer, weather is a hobby interest for me.
I haven't attacked you I have stated my opinion of your forecasts and the excuses you use when questioned on them.
You predicted a dry June and we had the wettest June ever in places, the 3 day excuse won't work there.
For as long as you post long range forecasts in this open forum I will give my opnion.0 -
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Nope, sorry, I never predict anything. I give opinions, same as you, same as Met Eirann unless they use the word "will". As I said, there is an 80% expectancy. I never claim 100%, no one does. 80% means 2 months per year potentially out. That allowed June to be out. I have explained I expected heatwaves in Europe in my almanac. That could mean unexpected convective rain in Ireland. How many times do I have to say this?:rolleyes:
In light of above can we change the title of this topic from "Summer 2012. What will it be like?" to "Summer 2012. What might it be like?"
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A quick chart to show how the IMT daily mean sea level pressure (IMT is the mean of 5 inland stations located with the central belt of the country - namely Casement Aerodrome, Claremorris, Shannon, Mullingar and Oak Park) is doing against its 30 year mean daily average(1981-10).
Chart data from the ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA Interim) & Ogimet
Although I have marked out the most significant periods in ridging and troughing over the country so far this year what is most striking in the chart is the sudden sharp drop from the near constant positive values in the 1st quart of the year (highest in almost 60 years) to a large negative anomaly in the 2nd quart. This sudden shift in pressure anomalies occurred sometime in the late March, early April period when the jet stream decided to go south for its summer vacation yet again.
Animation below shows the sea level pressure pattern for the period 20th March to around the 10th of April. A major shift in the overall weather pattern can be seen occurring over the eastern Atlantic over the course of this timeframe with the jet stream taken a sudden dart southwards as a ridge of high pressure declined to our west.
IMAGE from Vedur.is (Icelandic Met Office)
The above animation is probably a bit too 'trippy out' to make any sort of sense of, but what is does show is a major slackening in the general pattern over the north Atlantic (south of Greenland approx) over the course of time as slack troughs become almost stationary over that general area. It is this overall pattern that has largely sustained itself right through the summer period thus far with the more active areas of weather being pushed further south in towards Ireland and northern Europe. Not all that unusual in itself that is for sure, but this seems to be the general north Atlantic pattern of the last few summers as well.
Some signs that the jet stream will move a bit northwards over the next week or so but no real sign that it will go far enough north to allow any major rise in pressure from the south just yet. Still, only half way through summer at this point with plenty of time for a heatwave with spectacular thundery breakdowns yet!
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Rainfall totals at each of the reporting met stations for the summer period so far (up to yesterday). Just to note that there is missing data for Valentia from the 8th & 9th of July and from Johnstown on the 2nd so totals in the chart for these stations are incomplete. Rainfall totals this summer so far seem to be pretty unevenly distributed across the country. Cork has top spot whilst Gurteen, one of the most inland stations, is in 2nd place. Knock Apt is up there as well yet nearby coastal stations such as Belmullet and Mace recording some of the lowest totals of the season so far. Similar differences in totals between Dublin Apt and nearby Casement Aerodrome also. Odd weather altogether!
Data from met.ie
In other news, surface pressure averaging around 1020//1021 hPa across the country this afternoon. These are the highest MSLP values recorded since the 1st June last. When you consider that 1020 hPa is quite near the overall seasonal average, it really puts into perspective just how low values have been this summer so far.0 -
For the first time this summer,there was either no rain - or at most 'trace' - recorded at any of the synoptic stations yesterday, including those not included on the 'yesterday's weather page' (Dunsany /Phoenix Park/ Markee Castle/ Mt. Dillon / Moorepark - all reported 0.0mm).
From met.ie
An appropriate (and very cool) tune
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Provisional rainfall totals for the summer so far (up to 31st July) at met stations on the 'Daily data' page on met.ie.
(Just to note, data is incomplete for Mullingar as 25th July total not updated yet)
One of the more interesting features of the data I think is how Co. Mayo is home to not only the wettest station so far this summer (Knock) but also the driest (Belmullet).
Data from met.ie.0 -
Far too far out to be certain but as hinted at by MT in his forecast there is a chance of something a little bit more summery from the 2nd half of next week. Not any real agreement between the models on positioning of the ridge as of yet but liking very much what this morning's ECM is suggesting (chart for noon Thursday)
Such a set up would help to pull in some nice continental air in over Ireland but the high itself looks quite shallow which could mean that weak fronts could get trapped within it but this in itself would help to increase the chance of some nice summer storms developing!
Probably won't happen that way now as I have probably jinxed it totally.. :rolleyes:0 -
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Provided the convective factor from the hot European air stays away (which would be expected to bring ongoing rain on easterlies), I have potential in Ireland for a relatively dry spell in the last week of July and for much of the second half of August, apart from perigee rain around the 25th.
What do others think?
Apart from the fact that it rained every single day in the second half of August I dunno what to say to that one.
You call the October Forecast Competition which will be sticked in this forum in late september and I'll enter your precise values as my entry for October. Now thats fair!
OH!!! and IBTL 0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XkrywretTFU
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