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Possible Cold Reload

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    #242
    Wild Bill
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    29. NONE

    I kinda like the idea of the Devastating Leap Day Blizzard. :)


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    #243
    ZX7R
    Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    Lucreto wrote: »


    Vogan doesn't see any decent snow with this system just cold.

    I would not take his forcast to hart,a couple of days ago he said we be under a couple of feet of snow today...
    But he puts on a good show and is always excited about the weather


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    #244
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    He makes a good show of himself, that lad. :D


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    #245
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    Block not sinking ,

    Polar Vortex splitting,

    What so sad Beasterly ?

    We get feck all from it if this evenings runs are to be believed. A mild chart at 144 hrs is FI but then a good chart from 228hrs is to be taken seriously?


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    #246
    doccy
    Registered Users Posts: 366 ✭✭doccy


    I don't know why everyone is so depressed. We were always on the edge of the cold on this run. Even if the atlantic breaks through for a few days, there is a serious pool of cold in Europe right now, and it ain't just going away. The atlantic might win this battle, but it sure hasn't won the war.


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    #247
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    We get feck all from it if this evenings runs are to be believed. A mild chart at 144 hrs is FI but then a good chart from 228hrs is to be taken seriously?

    Bout 80 % Chance of the 144 chart verifying

    About 5% chance of the 228 chart verifying.

    Thats why I was asking earlier on bout verification stats, because 9/10 times we get a mild chart after T96 the first thing people have been saying is "thats FI"

    Whilst I agreed with that during the week I feel the models must have some sort of hold on how things are playing out now.


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    #248
    mcriot29
    Registered Users Posts: 386 ✭✭mcriot29


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    Block not sinking ,

    Polar Vortex splitting,

    What so sad Beasterly ?

    We get feck all from it if this evenings runs are to be believed. A mild chart at 144 hrs is FI but then a good chart from 228hrs is to be taken seriously?
    Its a a big let down from yesterdays gfs which showed irelsnd deep in a freeze for a few days, now all models agree. Ireland gets shag all in terms of cold infact even uk does not do much better , we need that cold pushed past west ireland , after one let down after another i think this winter will be the winter that never was


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    #249
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    Whilst I agreed with that during the week I feel the models must have some of hold on how things are playing out now.
    My concern about the GFS, given its provenance, is that it will correct nearer the continental US and will err further away. More so with half the Hemisphere covered with a single enormous contigous mass of cold that reaches Alaska.

    So what would they try most to get right?? Alaska or Ireland??? Shall we wait for the more 'Eurocentric' ECM and Hirlam then??


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    #250
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    My concern about the GFS, given its provenance, is that it will correct nearer the continental US and will err further away. More so with half the Hemisphere covered with a single enormous contigous mass of cold that reaches Alaska.

    So what would they try most to get right?? Alaska or Ireland??? Shall we wait for the more 'Eurocentric' ECM and Hirlam then??

    Tis why I was looking to get verification stats on how things are/were playing out .

    I would suspect it would correct nearer continental US ;)


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    #251
    hotwhiskey
    Closed Accounts Posts: 592 ✭✭✭hotwhiskey


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    We get feck all from it if this evenings runs are to be believed. A mild chart at 144 hrs is FI but then a good chart from 228hrs is to be taken seriously?

    144hrs is FI at the moment because the models are struggling that far out anything beyond 96hrs is not really worth looking at. Remember how long it took the models to pin down the easterly in the first place the struggled big time.

    Its looking good up to thursday we have cold air coming in with the risk of snow. Be happy if you like cold and snow lets see what tomorrow brings for Friday.


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    #252
    ZX7R
    Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    My better half has been on the phone to her parents in poland its -18 and droping
    birrr


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    #253
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    My concern about the GFS, given its provenance, is that it will correct nearer the continental US and will err further away. More so with half the Hemisphere covered with a single enormous contigous mass of cold that reaches Alaska.

    So what would they try most to get right?? Alaska or Ireland??? Shall we wait for the more 'Eurocentric' ECM and Hirlam then??

    Tis why I was looking to get verification stats on how things are/were playing out .

    I would suspect it would correct nearer continental US ;)

    Google doesn't seem to be throwing anything up with regard recent verification stats. I would suspect quite high as what's at 60 hrs now was definitely modelled accuarately at 120 hrs a few days back. I cannot stress enough that 120 to 144hrs is NOT FI on the GFS and ECM anyway.


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    #254
    hotwhiskey
    Closed Accounts Posts: 592 ✭✭✭hotwhiskey


    mcriot29 wrote: »
    Its a a big let down from yesterdays gfs which showed irelsnd deep in a freeze for a few days, now all models agree. Ireland gets shag all in terms of cold infact even uk does not do much better , we need that cold pushed past west ireland , after one let down after another i think this winter will be the winter that never was

    Why is everyone complaning and the easterly has not come yet!!!


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    #255
    konman
    Registered Users Posts: 234 ✭✭konman


    Wild Bill wrote: »
    rainymood.png

    Twenty hours non-stop and counting..........


    all in a normal day for us in the whest lol


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    #256
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    I would suspect it would correct nearer continental US ;)

    Well it should, whose tax dollars paid for it??


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    #257
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    Google doesn't seem to be throwing anything up with regard recent verification stats. I would suspect quite high as what's at 60 hrs now was definitely modelled accuarately at 120 hrs a few days back. I cannot stress enough that 120 to 144hrs is NOT FI on the GFS and ECM anyway.

    Found something here on Ryan Muae's Site

    http://policlimate.com/weather/verification.html

    Next thing is to try and get my head around them


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    #258
    snow ghost
    Registered Users Posts: 1,379 ✭✭✭snow ghost


    mcriot29 wrote: »
    Its a a big let down from yesterdays gfs which showed irelsnd deep in a freeze for a few days, now all models agree. Ireland gets shag all in terms of cold infact even uk does not do much better , we need that cold pushed past west ireland , after one let down after another i think this winter will be the winter that never was

    This could play out either way.

    I see the positive in having such a tightrope scenario and I favour a heavy snowfall outcome based soley on a hunch, the set-up and because it is February and some past experience tells me this could happen.


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    #259
    mothel
    Registered Users Posts: 248 ✭✭mothel


    What's FI? Can't ask those scary people on the "model discussion only thread" I might get excommunicated! :o


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    #260
    opr
    Registered Users Posts: 8,267 ✭✭✭opr


    mothel wrote: »
    What's FI? Can't ask those scary people on the "model discussion only thread" I might get excommunicated! :o

    Fantasy Island - It relates to the fact that the charts in that time period tend to be more of a fantasy nature than an actual reliable representation of what will happen. Basically too far out for accurate predictions.

    Opr


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    #261
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    FI is anything beyond 144 hours where models are getting a bit "Fantasy"


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    #262
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    mothel wrote: »
    What's FI? Can't ask those scary people on the "model discussion only thread" I might get excommunicated! :o

    Its called Fantasy Island ,

    Basically means the output on the charts is outside of a reliable timeframe for them to verify.

    When the models are having a hard time getting to grips with a setup the FI is said to be around 72-96hrs but usually after 144 hours would be the normal FI time


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    #263
    thomasj
    Registered Users Posts: 4,791 ✭✭✭thomasj


    mothel wrote: »
    What's FI? Can't ask those scary people on the "model discussion only thread" I might get excommunicated! :o

    Its fantasy island - its where you see forecasts days away people dream of only for reality to sink in closer to the time :(


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    #264
    Mountainsandh
    Registered Users Posts: 6,700 ✭✭✭Mountainsandh


    Goddamit we deserve that cold, we've earned it with all that rain !


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    #265
    mothel
    Registered Users Posts: 248 ✭✭mothel


    Thank you! There was I thinking it was some highly technical meteorological reference! :D


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    #266
    doccy
    Registered Users Posts: 366 ✭✭doccy


    snow ghost wrote: »
    This could play out either way.

    I see the positive in having such a tightrope scenario and I favour a heavy snowfall outcome based soley on a hunch, the set-up and because it is February and some past experience tells me this could happen.

    You may well be right.


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    #267
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    Google doesn't seem to be throwing anything up with regard recent verification stats. I would suspect quite high as what's at 60 hrs now was definitely modelled accuarately at 120 hrs a few days back. I cannot stress enough that 120 to 144hrs is NOT FI on the GFS and ECM anyway.

    Ehh? Anything after +96hrs is firmly into FI!!! 120 to 144hrs is most definitley FI on GFS and ECM and every other model for that matter! Surely the fact that the charts have changed so much in the last 24 hours at that timeframe prove that??? Oh and we have increasing snow event potential at just +48hrs, the chance of snow falling over Ireland at this timeframe has increased significantly since last nights output! So how +144hrs is not FI is beyond me!


    Expecting upgrades in the morning- This is far from over everyone!




    Dan :)


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    #268
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    mike65 wrote: »
    Looks like the cold freaks will be happy for 4 maybe 5 days at most, Sunday looks like being double figures (just) for many.
    Snowc wrote: »
    You are in no postion to be using the word freak with your 70,862posts on an internet forum .I would love some cold dry weather for a change.

    When you are something more than a bit of fluff on boards backside you can make such a comment.


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    #269
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    Ehh? Anything after +96hrs is firmly into FI!!! 120 to 144hrs is most definitley FI on GFS and ECM and every other model for that matter! Surely the fact that the charts have changed so much in the last 24 hours at that timeframe prove that??? Oh and we have increasing snow event potential at just +48hrs, the chance of snow falling over Ireland at this timeframe has increased significantly since last nights output! So how +144hrs is not FI is beyond me!


    Expecting upgrades in the morning- This is far from over everyone!




    Dan :)

    Where can I get a chart from 144 hrs ago ?

    Just to match it up and see .


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    #270
    snow ghost
    Registered Users Posts: 1,379 ✭✭✭snow ghost


    mike65 wrote: »
    When you are something more than a bit of fluff on boards backside.

    I wouldn't be alluding to being anything more than a 'bit of fluff' on a backside, the only other thing that tends to cling to backsides is brown and does not bare thinking about. :eek:


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    #271
    snow ghost
    Registered Users Posts: 1,379 ✭✭✭snow ghost


    doccy wrote: »
    You may well be right.

    We shall see doccy, who knows, but it would be nice to be snowed under.


This discussion has been closed.
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