Thursday/Friday Snow Potential

jo06555 · 14-12-2011 4:53pm

Musicman2000 wrote: »

The Waterford snow shield could be broken:D

I really hope so but we now have to wait til 9.30 what happens then? Will we know or will we need to wait for another update tommorrow?

pad199207 · 14-12-2011 4:55pm

Had a surprise snowfall here in Naas this morning , that left a nice dusting, still some on the parked cars and ditches where i am!

But about time we see a proper chance of something better:)

DOCARCH · 14-12-2011 4:59pm

jo06555 wrote: »

I really hope so but we now have to wait til 9.30 what happens then? Will we know or will we need to wait for another update tommorrow?

Or until the Great Oz MT speaks!

With sea temps still relatively high in the Irish Sea, could or probably will be a very marginal set up for the east coast. Elevation and distance from the coast will be the key to getting any snow.

gothwalk · 14-12-2011 5:02pm

jo06555 wrote: »

I really hope so but we now have to wait til 9.30 what happens then? Will we know or will we need to wait for another update tommorrow?

We'll have a better chance of knowing. You can never really say you know what the weather will do, even in the next few hours, but the 18z run should, in theory, give more accurate information than the 12z, because it has more data available to it, and is making predictions less far into the future.

So we won't know for sure, but we'll know more.

darkman2 · 14-12-2011 5:08pm

East coasts are going to struggle due to onshore winds to get snow at sea level but there may be snow for a time as the precipiation clears and winds go offshore - however a light wind may mitigate against this somewhat and allow snow to sea level on coasts at times.

drdeadlift · 14-12-2011 5:12pm

.8 deg c here on Camden street Dublin 2 found an old mercury thermometer.

jo06555 · 14-12-2011 5:21pm

darkman2 wrote: »

East coasts are going to struggle due to onshore winds to get snow at sea level but there may be snow for a time as the precipiation clears and winds go offshore - however a light wind may mitigate against this somewhat and allow snow to sea level on coasts at times.

So as it stands inland south east may be better off

only one · 14-12-2011 5:25pm

damn, im just underneath the pink in the south east:(

jo06555 · 14-12-2011 5:36pm

only one wrote: »

damn, im just underneath the pink in the south east:(

You in Waterford? I'm just wating for the pink to shape itself around Waterford and fill us with rain while the rest is snow

only one · 14-12-2011 5:39pm

east cork/west waterford boarder. ya i can see that happening too :mad:

Musicman2000 · 14-12-2011 5:41pm

If the low sinks further south than expected its game over, Even in Waterford it will be very marginal you would really need to be 20k inland.

only one · 14-12-2011 5:47pm

and what way is the low ment to sink at the moment?

jo06555 · 14-12-2011 5:55pm

Musicman2000 wrote: »

If the low sinks further south than expected its game over, Even in Waterford it will be very marginal you would really need to be 20k inland.

I'm on the Waterford / killkenny border but will still probably miss out

nacho libre · 14-12-2011 6:10pm

Rodar08 wrote: »

Not looking good for Donegal then Would you be able to tell me how many meters Buncrana is asl? Thanks Donegal gets good coverage but not so much here in Buncrana .. Even Derry seems to do better than us weather wise and thats only 14 miles away. Snow dance continuing

Friday and into the weekend look good for showers in the north and west to be mainly of sleet and snow as colder air from the north digs in. So don't give up hope yet.

maw368 · 14-12-2011 6:26pm

I'm in Brecon Mid to South Wales and just hoping the heavy snow from North Wales may drift down a bit to me

screamer · 14-12-2011 6:30pm

If the snow does arrive in the SE, what time of the day should it arrive, morning, afternoon or evening?

Harps · 14-12-2011 6:43pm

Best chance tomorrow night by the looks of it

Looks like we're still marginal for snow for the next few days as well, getting a bit sick of the wet mucky stuff we've had all week but at least its better than Atlantic fronts

kenmc · 14-12-2011 6:43pm

screamer wrote: »

If the snow does arrive in the SE, what time of the day should it arrive, morning, afternoon or evening?

are you delivering to order?

screamer · 14-12-2011 6:45pm

Nah, have a trip to take tomorrow, and was figuring if I knew what time roughly the weather would get bad, I'd plan to be there and back before it arrives, if it arrives, that's all. Snow +driving = mental traffic + p*ssed screamer!

Villain · 14-12-2011 7:03pm

The High Res charts I saw looked pretty good for inland areas of the SE.

I posted my thoughts on http://iwo.ie/2011/12/14/risk-of-snow-thursday-night-151211/

darkman2 · 14-12-2011 7:08pm

Funnily enough 10m winds are currently progged to remain offshore in the East which does increase the chances of some snow at sea level. The 850hpa winds go Easterly but it's not as important due to the fact temperatures at that level will be meandering between -4 and -6c.

U36-602.GIF?14-17

JanuarySnowstor · 14-12-2011 7:23pm

For me tomorrow wont happen.
It will either miss us completely or be too mild.
Next.....

bb1234567 · 14-12-2011 7:28pm

so let me get this straight, we are getting an easterly airflow but its to weak or something?is mainland europe not yet cold enough?

racso1975 · 14-12-2011 7:37pm

Lashing rain in carlow very windy would imagine that it would be very difficult for snow to stick

Su Campu · 14-12-2011 7:43pm

I think tomorrow evening freezing rain will be more of an issue for more people than snow. Theta-e and theta-w range from above +20/+6 °C in the south to +15/+3 °C nearer the northern extremity of the rain, which would equate to a snowline of around 400 m in the south to 150 m in the north. If any frost sets in before the rain arrives, it is possible that any rain falling may freeze on contact for a while, causing a slight glaze on surfaces. Whether a frost will set in though is another question, with increasin mid and high level cloud arriving before the rain.

I think people in the southeast shouldn't be getting their hopes up for snow any times soon, unless you live a few hundred metres up. Better chance further north, but even then it will be a sleety mix for most.

Best chance for low level snow is showers in the north and west on Saturday.

screamer · 14-12-2011 8:02pm

Thanks Su Campu, I'm only 150M, and it's raining right now, will be happy to see no snow until closer to xmas when I don't have to drive anywhere. Cheers.

pauldry · 14-12-2011 8:07pm

well you wont see any snow at xmas coz its gonna be mild 8 to 11c next week

Gonzo · 14-12-2011 8:11pm

highly doubt meath will see anything from this and if we do it wont be much, had a very light dusting of snow this morning. still a few patchs from yesterday morning left in the garden. Then again yesterday's snow came as a complete surprise as atlantic based cold spells normally never deliver here so anything's possible. Good to hear that Christmas week will be mild, really dont like having snow during the runup to christmas.

Su Campu · 14-12-2011 8:16pm

I should have pointed out that the snowline will start lower in the south earlier tomorrow as the first rain arrives - probably 150-200 m - but will quickly rise to around 400 m.

jo06555 · 14-12-2011 8:58pm

Su Campu wrote: »

I should have pointed out that the snowline will start lower in the south earlier tomorrow as the first rain arrives - probably 150-200 m - but will quickly rise to around 400 m.

So this thread is a non starter then as nothing major or new is really happening?

derekon · 14-12-2011 9:21pm

Just saw the BBC weather and it has Dublin covered in the white stuff from around 8pm-11pm tomorrow night..........wee chance of snow I would say!

D

Su Campu · 14-12-2011 9:24pm

Met Éireann:

Thursday

Further wintry showers will affect the north and west but other areas will be mainly dry. However, outbreaks of rain or sleet are likely to affect southern coastal counties later tomorrow evening. Winds slackening during the day but remaining cold; highest temperatures 4 to 7 degrees.

Outlook

Thursday night will be very cold with temperatures falling to between 0 and -3 degrees. Rain will move into western parts overnight and some snow is likely too. Showers will continue along the west and north coasts on Friday and it will feel cold in moderate to fresh northwest winds. Some of the showers will be wintry, with hail, sleet and snow likely. Highs will range from 3 to 6 degrees. Cold again on Friday night with lowest temperatures of -1 to 2 degrees. It will stay cold on Saturday with more showers in the west and north as the chilly northerly winds persist. Temperatures will struggle to reach 4 or 5 degrees, while at night temperatures will plummet to between -1 and -4 degrees, with a widespread severe frost and icy patches. Sunday will be a similar day with further showers and low temperatures.

jo06555 · 14-12-2011 9:39pm

Rte. / Met eireann weather only showing rain and sleet for tommorrow so I suppose that's that then the fun of snow is over once again

NickDrake · 14-12-2011 9:42pm

Can Met Eireann get it wrong again? Wouldn't be the first time.

I remember they messed up big time by missing the snow that hit the East one night last winter when it came in off the Irish sea

Su Campu · 14-12-2011 9:48pm

The Wicklow mountains will get a pasting alright, and Sally Gap could be closed come Friday morning, but at low level I think it will be as I stated above.

bb1234567 · 14-12-2011 9:48pm

NickDrake wrote: »

Can Met Eireann get it wrong again? Wouldn't be the first time.

I remember they messed up big time by missing the snow that hit the East one night last winter when it came in off the Irish sea

yep remember it well,they forecast a fairly dry night with a few light snow showers, turns out a massive dumping of snow hit dublin,7 inches in one night think it was 18th december ,didnt stop snowing after that until 26th december stephens day when it all melted. we had somewhere around 1 ft 5 inches in rathgar in dublin last year on xmas day...good times:D

Musicman2000 · 14-12-2011 9:57pm

bb1234567 wrote: »

yep remember it well,they forecast a fairly dry night with a few light snow showers, turns out a massive dumping of snow hit dublin,7 inches in one night think it was 18th december ,didnt stop snowing after that until 26th december stephens day when it all melted. we had somewhere around 1 ft 5 inches in rathgar in dublin last year on xmas day...good times:D

Can be very hard to forecast snow, especially in this situation but I don’t even think she mentioned tomorrow night and the same after the six o clock news.

And here is the Gfs 18z run snow gone.

darkman2 · 14-12-2011 9:58pm

18z GFS has put the bulk of precipitation well to the South with most of the country dry tomorrow night. Similar to the 12z Hirlam and ECM forecast.

smallwonder · 14-12-2011 10:01pm

Su Campu wrote: »

I think tomorrow evening freezing rain will be more of an issue for more people than snow. Theta-e and theta-w range from above +20/+6 °C in the south to +15/+3 °C nearer the northern extremity of the rain, which would equate to a snowline of around 400 m in the south to 150 m in the north. If any frost sets in before the rain arrives, it is possible that any rain falling may freeze on contact for a while, causing a slight glaze on surfaces. Whether a frost will set in though is another question, with increasin mid and high level cloud arriving before the rain.

What do you reckon the probability is of this happening in the North West? I've a bit of driving to do tomorrow evening.

jo06555 · 14-12-2011 10:05pm

So that's that then I should of known it was too good to be true

John.Icy · 14-12-2011 10:07pm

NickDrake wrote: »

Can Met Eireann get it wrong again? Wouldn't be the first time.

I remember they messed up big time by missing the snow that hit the East one night last winter when it came in off the Irish sea

Yeah. How dare ME not control the convection rates for the Irish sea!!!! Bunch of fools!

:pac:

Redsunset · 14-12-2011 10:08pm

Latest NAE, however im with Su on this one,i think only nthe highest hills seeing some accumulation .

Su Campu · 14-12-2011 10:21pm

smallwonder wrote: »

What do you reckon the probability is of this happening in the North West? I've a bit of driving to do tomorrow evening.

Should be snow showers above around 100 m in the northwest tomorrow night.

Mountainsandh · 14-12-2011 10:36pm

Redsunset, would that pink blob be likely to move any way ... like... just a little South ? ... any chance at all ? ... please and thank you ?

Redsunset · 14-12-2011 10:40pm

Oh she'll move any way it wants in next runs and even become a magician and disappear.:D

Redsunset · 14-12-2011 10:45pm

From Ian Fergusson,

Just finished long conference with UKMO colleagues. Please keep tuned to f'casts for Thurs night/Fri AM. Glos/M4 Wilts snow issue Fri AM: not good...

So it looks like parts of southern England are in for a wintry belt,Feckers

Edit,yeah must be worried bout this from the NAE. EDIT UKMO WARNING Outbreaks of heavy rain will turn readily to snow during the early hours of Friday. The snow is likely to accumulate over time with a risk of up to 10 cm over higher ground. At low levels sleet is more likely but even here some lying snow cannot be ruled out.

Trotter · 14-12-2011 10:52pm

Im amazed how the charts changed so much in the space of the afternoon/evening. I shouldnt be I suppose!

Su Campu · 14-12-2011 10:56pm

redsunset wrote: »

From Ian Fergusson,

Just finished long conference with UKMO colleagues. Please keep tuned to f'casts for Thurs night/Fri AM. Glos/M4 Wilts snow issue Fri AM: not good...

So it looks like parts of southern England are in for a wintry belt,Feckers

Edit,yeah must be worried bout this from the NAE

But again it will be on the moors, above around 150 metres. Should be some very high snowfall rates there on the northwest sector of the low tomorrow night.

dbyrne · 14-12-2011 10:58pm

just checked bbc and sky weather (red button) and there could be a good snow event on Thursday night between 11 and 1 am for the southeast and east. dont know how much but hope it goes as predicted as it would be nice to see some snow.

jo06555 · 14-12-2011 11:22pm

dbyrne wrote: »

just checked bbc and sky weather (red button) and there could be a good snow event on Thursday night between 11 and 1 am for the southeast and east. dont know how much but hope it goes as predicted as it would be nice to see some snow.

But surely that's based on the 3.30 run today as the 9.30 run has just wiped all snow from south east IMO no? ?????

Thursday/Friday Snow Potential

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