This Week's Storms - FORECAST, MODEL DISCUSSION ONLY

ninebeanrows · 11-12-2011 4:56pm

Tuesdays system is quite complicated and abit further north at this point than the 6z.

Strong winds but nothing exceptional shown on the 12z.

maquiladora · 11-12-2011 5:02pm

Pangea wrote: »

Farming Forecast
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1MCHDFgAGpY&feature=plcp&context=C22c1aUDOEgsToPDskJXdhtE_MV8H9U6NQnKPqYV

First time that I recall Met Eireann talking about a system "threatening extremely stormy conditions".

Su Campu · 11-12-2011 5:03pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

Su , the other day u mentioned the probability of sting jets. Evaporative cooling u mentioned and i found that slantwise convection too is important to look into for potential.
Any idea what chart is related with the 2nd factor.... LI charts?

Really interested in this as i found out they are only recently being looked into. WOuld make a great Master's thesis if and when i get to do a MSc in Meteorology

The 1.5 PVU height charts and water vapour imagery are good indicators of stingjet potential. With a strong dryslot becoming entrained into the system, the 1.5 PVU height (which is an indicator of where the stratosphere starts) will show lowering in that area, plus the wv imagery will show a strong dark area, all meaning that strong subsidence of stratospheric air behind the system is becoming "sucked" into the centre. Evaporative cooling within this area caused negative buoyancy and the air accelerates downwards, dragging strong upper level winds down to low levels. A dark spot near the centre of the spiral is a good nowcaster that a stingjet is happening.

It was a stingjet that killed all those people taking part in the Fastnet Yacht Race in 1979.

Iancar29 · 11-12-2011 5:09pm

Su Campu wrote: »

The 1.5 PVU height charts and water vapour imagery are good indicators of stingjet potential. With a strong dryslot becoming entrained into the system, the 1.5 PVU height (which is an indicator of where the stratosphere starts) will show lowering in that area, plus the wv imagery will show a strong dark area, all meaning that strong subsidence of stratospheric air behind the system is becoming "sucked" into the centre. Evaporative cooling within this area caused negative buoyancy and the air accelerates downwards, dragging strong upper level winds down to low levels. A dark spot near the centre of the spiral is a good nowcaster that a stingjet is happening.

It was a stingjet that killed all those people taking part in the Fastnet Yacht Race in 1979.

Cheers Su, very detailed!

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 11-12-2011 5:11pm

Is it just me or is the 2nd system a bit further south on this run ?

ninebeanrows · 11-12-2011 5:13pm

Abandon ship!

this one gives us a direct smack, first storm force south easterlies, then the end!

ninebeanrows · 11-12-2011 5:14pm

100mph+ gusts hit Dublin (if this happened!)

cherryghost · 11-12-2011 5:15pm

t|nt|n wrote: »

Is it just me or is the 2nd system a bit further south on this run ?

Definitely, a good 50km further south and still intense.

howlinwolf · 11-12-2011 5:16pm

so it sounds like were givin up on tuesdays storm just a windy day......funny a few days ago it was been called a monster a little like thursday storm....anybody have a guess what will happen thursday storm:rolleyes:

leahyl · 11-12-2011 5:16pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Abandon ship!

this one gives us a direct smack, first storm force south easterlies, then the end!

I'm not sure what to make of that post! All I'll say is EEEKK!

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 11-12-2011 5:16pm

Will be interesting to see what the other models say !

WolfeIRE · 11-12-2011 5:16pm

Centred in Donegal Bay on Thursday at 9pm

Rick doesn't seem too bothered

Su Campu · 11-12-2011 5:17pm

75 knot sustained winds in the Irish Sea Thursday night. Buckets and mops will be need on the ferries....which won't be running anyway! Could mean Dublin Airport will be closed too....

ninebeanrows · 11-12-2011 5:21pm

howlinwolf wrote: »

so it sounds like were givin up on tuesdays storm just a windy day......funny a few days ago it was been called a monster a little like thursday storm....anybody have a guess what will happen thursday storm:rolleyes:

Stop spamming, you are talking through your nose. Nobody every said Tuesdays would be exceptional. We were concerned it would be very strong, but nobody mentioned anything above 70KT gusts and they are still likely in some parts. To be honest, if you don't have any constructive to post, please stop posting here.

Fair enough to remind us this is still quite far off and may not come off, but your just acting like a troll.

This is a warning by the way, to stop trolling.

leahyl · 11-12-2011 5:22pm

Guys it's prob better not to get TOO excited about this! I mean Tuesdays event is not going to be as bad as we initially thought so maybe the same for this one? I'm just being cautious!

ninebeanrows · 11-12-2011 5:24pm

UKM is pretty much similar and usually is more reserved (realistic?) than the GFS

UW96-21.GIF?11-17

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 11-12-2011 5:24pm

Ya beat me to it WC !

12z ECM will be an interesting read

premiercad · 11-12-2011 5:24pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

premiercad wrote: »

"Seriously, are there wind speeds at which wind turbines become dangerous in terms of their rpm's? The west coast has hundreds of turbines, if not thousands. They will be flat out this week."

High winds are no good to wind turbines, and especially strong gusts play havoc with them, they are designed for nice constant medium wind and are actually very efficient on lower wind days , next week could see a lot of farms shut down and turbines go into weathercock mode where blades are turned edge first to the wind and clutched into neutral.

YEp..... or else THIS can happen ... :rolleyes:

Exactly note the turbines brake has failed and it's pointing downwind other turbines locked and into wind, that looks expensive!!!

Reckless Abandonment · 11-12-2011 5:25pm

howlinwolf wrote: »

so it sounds like were givin up on tuesdays storm just a windy day......funny a few days ago it was been called a monster a little like thursday storm....anybody have a guess what will happen thursday storm:rolleyes:

I'm starting to hope you're right.. that thing could reinvigorate construction industry in Ireland over night

maquiladora · 11-12-2011 5:25pm

Very severe with the 2nd storm again on this run. Not going to worry about it yet though, so much can change and probably will. But certainly needs to be watched.

ninebeanrows · 11-12-2011 5:26pm

Just to note, UKM looks stronger for Tuesday's system.

(Sorry for all the images!)

60hrs

UW48-21.GIF?11-17

plein de force · 11-12-2011 5:26pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Abandon ship!

this one gives us a direct smack, first storm force south easterlies, then the end!

what do you mean by that :eek:

Rougies · 11-12-2011 5:28pm

Here's a video of that Scottish wind turbine bursting into flames.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jCyQD83NLDc

leahyl · 11-12-2011 5:30pm

plein de force wrote: »

Weathercheck wrote: »

Abandon ship!

this one gives us a direct smack, first storm force south easterlies, then the end!

what do you mean by that :eek:

Of the world! :-O

Su Campu · 11-12-2011 5:32pm

Or this is what happened to a Danish one a year or so ago...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbCs7ZQDKoM

WolfeIRE · 11-12-2011 5:35pm

Regarding cold: The further south the centre of this storm system tracks in the next few days the colder the air will be that is pulled down in its aftermath. The last few GFS runs have been quite consistent in their projection. The ECM will be very interesting.

Regarding rainfall: Anything between 70-100mm could fall in the SW,W and NW between now and next Saturday evening. More like 45-60mm in other coastal counties and 40-50mm well inland.

Forecast for the coming week from Sky News
http://news.sky.com/home/video/16128058

Rougies · 11-12-2011 5:35pm

Su Campu wrote: »

Or this is what happened to a Danish one a year or so ago...

I hope Airtricity are reading this thread, or we could be seeing more vids like that from closer to home

WolfeIRE · 11-12-2011 5:39pm

Su Campu wrote: »

Or this is what happened to a Danish one a year or so ago...

Think I saw Chuck Norris fleeing the scene at the end.

howlinwolf · 11-12-2011 5:40pm

listen weathercheck dont threaten me with ur warnings freedom of speech is still available in this country,its not my fault amost of these events you are predicting dont come off maybe you should study your charts a little harder instead of threatening people who have an opinion

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 11-12-2011 5:42pm

Oh dear

This Week's Storms - FORECAST, MODEL DISCUSSION ONLY

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