This Week's Storms - FORECAST, MODEL DISCUSSION ONLY

Mullaghteelin

seanknowsall wrote: »

All this hype about storms etc is just setting weather lovers up for another big disappintment yet again. I going to go mountain climbing on Friday in Sligo to prove that this is all hype. And before anyone says it... I can read weather maps and I understand basic meteorology... I could go into why I think these storms wont happen from a sciency point of view but I cant be bothered as I know and trust my gut instinct. Think I will put up a few outdoor Christmas decorations on Thursday.....

As a weather fanatic myself, I think its perfectly understandable that you feel this way. You dont want to get your hopes up to avoid disapointment so you cynically talk it down, like a form of defence mechanism. I felt the same after many years barely missing out on snowfall time and time again, but last years cold spell cured me of my cynicism.
Tuesdays storm was always a little more complex, a somewhat larger storm with different centres and the potential to be downgraded due to slacker gradients, etc.
Thursday nights storm however seems to be a different beast entirely. The consistency and agreement across the models for an unprecedented wind event should not be dismissed, indeed it would be foolhardy to do so.
The track may change somewhat, the worst of the winds may not do exactly what we would all like, but something BIG seems to be on the cards.

dfbemt

seanknowsall wrote: »

Now Now just because I not going along with the all the hype that you are spouting......

Then why are you posting here?

Some of us are interested in the weather but have very little knowledge of the scientific aspects. There are others on this forum who are excellent, this is their hobby and they are happy enough to share their knowledge with us.

Sometimes I post updates from my area and this is of value to the more learned. Most of all I am constantly learning from them.

Posts like yours ruin it for others. Please go away and save your trolling for somebody else.

Back to the weather. It has gotten very dark and moderately windy with sustained rainfall for the past 2 hours. Is this the lead in to Tuesdays stormy weather?

Mullaghteelin

dfbemt wrote: »

Back to the weather. It has gotten very dark and moderately windy with sustained rainfall for the past 2 hours. Is this the lead in to Tuesdays stormy weather?

Not quite yet, but a cold front has just arrived on the east coast, my temp has dropped over a degree in 5 minutes, literally. 3.9C and falling, was over 6C a short while ago.

Redsunset

Matt Hugo jetstream info

WolfeIRE

http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/danmark/vejrkort.htm
next 48 hrs or so

nedbor - rain
vind - wind

seanknowsall

dfbemt wrote: »

Then why are you posting here?

Some of us are interested in the weather but have very little knowledge of the scientific aspects. There are others on this forum who are excellent, this is their hobby and they are happy enough to share their knowledge with us.

Sometimes I post updates from my area and this is of value to the more learned. Most of all I am constantly learning from them.

Posts like yours ruin it for others. Please go away and save your trolling for somebody else.

Back to the weather. It has gotten very dark and moderately windy with sustained rainfall for the past 2 hours. Is this the lead in to Tuesdays stormy weather?

OK OK OK ... I apologise if I appeared to be rudely dismissing the forecasts on here. I just get so frustrated when major weather events that are hyped up dont materialise. I sorry to any other member on here if I was out of order... Wolfie was one of them. Also, and I not messing, what exactly is trolling??

seanknowsall

OK OK OK ... I apologise if I appeared to be rudely dismissing the forecasts on here. I just get so frustrated when major weather events that are hyped up dont materialise. I sorry to any other member on here if I was out of order... Wolfie was one of them. Also, and I not messing, what exactly is trolling??

Iancar29

premiercad wrote: »

"Seriously, are there wind speeds at which wind turbines become dangerous in terms of their rpm's? The west coast has hundreds of turbines, if not thousands. They will be flat out this week."


High winds are no good to wind turbines, and especially strong gusts play havoc with them, they are designed for nice constant medium wind and are actually very efficient on lower wind days , next week could see a lot of farms shut down and turbines go into weathercock mode where blades are turned edge first to the wind and clutched into neutral.

YEp..... or else THIS can happen ... :rolleyes:

WolfeIRE

seanknowsall wrote: »

I not messing, what exactly is trolling??

No prob.

It is someone who posts purely to invoke a negative or angry reaction from others.

Glad to say the boards weather forum has not got a major problem with this, mainly because the vast majority of members on here do not stand for it.

Sponge Bob

WolfeIRE wrote: »

I have never seen a storm this powerful on the charts in the short term. I think a serious discussion of its potential is warranted.

Actually the GFS shows many disasters at about a weeks range and I have tried to counsel against the hysteria in this thread...sadly to no avail.

GFS regularly shows lows of 920-940 at one week. Eventally someone will call "Wolf" and one will appear, non????? :cool:

WolfeIRE

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Eventally someone will call "Wolf" and one will appear, non????? :cool:

Ok, my mobile number is 555...

Sponge Bob

Did someone cry WOLF in this thread ?????? :cool:

Mullaghteelin

Sponge Bob wrote: »

GFS regularly shows lows of 920-940 at one week. Eventally someone will call "Wolf" and one will appear, non????? :cool:

Im not so sure about that.
The GFS may often have a crazy storm somewhere like the southern tip of Greenland deep into fantasy island on one run which might be gone the next, but to consistently have a storm of this intensity at this range, with support from the other main models is very rare.
I can still remember as a child the RTE presenter, possibly Evelyn Cusasck, pointing out the record breaking significance of the "Braer" storm in January 1993. I was fascinated by it, and from then on I started paying attention to low pressure values in forecasts. 913mb will take some beating!

nacho libre

While Tuesday's storm might not look as "bad", a period of sustained windy weather before a possible major storm could make the damage from it even more substantial.
With broad agreement from the models today, i think met eireann are dead right to flag Thursday's system well in advance, even if things on the day turns out not to be as bad. No one remembers if a poster on here gets a prediction wrong, but if Met Eireann underplay this and it turns out to be a significant storm, they won't be allowed to forget it. Su Campu's friend Michael Fish knows this all too well.

maquiladora

12Z GME for Tuesday.

176.31.229.228/modeles/gme/run/gme-0-54.png

Tom Cruises Left Nut

:eek:

maquiladora

Hi res NMM model is showing gusts up to 95km/h for southeast/east coast areas for Monday afternoon ahead of Tuesdays low which will bring another round of winds, but the NMM only goes to 36 hours.

Su Campu

Re Monday/Tuesday system:

Soundings for New Foundland this morning show peak winds of 188 knots at around 250 hPa, agreeing pretty well with the model forecasts. This intense streak has moved offshore and has weakened slightly but is forecast to strengthen to near 200 knots later today as strong cold air advection from the Labrador Sea strengthens the gradient.

The surface low, just a 1010 hPa trough over New Foundland this morning, is moving eastwards under this jet and will strengthen explosively later today as that cold air goes to work on it. The low centre, however, seems to stay farther north than previously progged, with a strong trough making its way further south to our latitude during Monday, bringing just seasonal strong winds. It is the back side gradient that will bring the strong winds to the northwest on Tuesday, with some squally conditions likely near the occlusion. It look like any chances of a stingjet are greatly reduced as the central spiral stays north and becomes detached from the main jet, which will be weakening by this stage.

So for me it's a wet day Monday, and a clearer showery day Tuesday, with a 6-12 hour period of storm force winds for areas in the northwest and later northeast. I don't see any snow potential except for higher ground on Tuesday.

darkman2

NAE high res for Tuesday and Wednesday with showers turning quickly to snow during Monday night/early Tuesday before becoming widespread across the country. Should be fun with the wind.

km79

Does pink mean snow ?

Su Campu

km79 wrote: »

Does pink mean snow ?

Yes

darkman2

km79 wrote: »

Does pink mean snow ?

Yes, it shows the minimum parameters for snow have been reached and that snow is very likely in precipitation. Good chance of snow showers on Tuesday and Wednesday especially in the west and north but all places are at risk because showers will be moving smartly across the country on the strength of the wind. Heavy showers could lead to blizzard conditions at times particularly on high ground I would think.

Also Tuesday and Wednesday look absolutely bitter. 2 or 3c in that wind is going to feel really rough.

maquiladora

12z NAE has 75km/h sustained winds off the east coast on Monday evening. Cant see Tuesday yet.

only one

darkman2 wrote: »

km79 wrote: »

Does pink mean snow ?

Yes, it shows the minimum parameters for snow have been reached and that snow is very likely in precipitation. Good chance of snow showers on Tuesday and Wednesday especially in the west and north but all places are at risk because showers will be moving smartly across the country on the strength of the wind. Heavy showers could lead to blizzard conditions at times particularly on high ground I would think.

Also Tuesday and Wednesday look absolutely bitter. 2 or 3c in that wind is going to feel really rough.

Be nice if south east got snow off this

Su Campu

Re: Thursday/Friday system

There is still uncertainty in exactly how it will play out for later in the week. The situation upstream over the US shows a split jet over the NW US as a deepening upper trough over the SW US starts to close off over the next 24 hours. At the same time, the embryonic surface disturbance near the Bahamas moves north and becomes caught up under the jet. The problem is the exact behaviour of the cut off low over the SW US, which will determine how the jet rejoins itself off the east coast, and hence how it will interact with the surface low. This will have a big bearing on what shape the storm will be in as it reaches us later Thursday.

It sure does look like a biggy at the moment, but it is way too early to start issuing warnings at the moment. An interesting few days ahead....:)

dfbemt

only one wrote: »

Be nice if south east got snow off this

Highly unlikely Sorry

Pangea

Farming Forecast
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1MCHDFgAGpY&feature=plcp&context=C22c1aUDOEgsToPDskJXdhtE_MV8H9U6NQnKPqYV

Sponge Bob

If the Thursday night storm comes off it looks like causing storm surges in the North sea by Saturday.

tayto lover

If it snows on Tue I will have to use yellow golfballs. Don't play well with yellow golfballs.

Iancar29

Su Campu wrote: »

Re: Thursday/Friday system

There is still uncertainty in exactly how it will play out for later in the week. The situation upstream over the US shows a split jet over the NW US as a deepening upper trough over the SW US starts to close off over the next 24 hours. At the same time, the embryonic surface disturbance near the Bahamas moves north and becomes caught up under the jet. The problem is the exact behaviour of the cut off low over the SW US, which will determine how the jet ret rejoins itself off the east coast, and hence how it will interact with the surface low. This will have a big bearing on what shape the storm will be in as it reaches us later Thursday.

It sure does look like a biggy at the moment, but it is way too early to start issuing warnings at the moment. An interesting few days ahead....:)

Su , the other day u mentioned the probability of sting jets. Evaporative cooling u mentioned and i found that slantwise convection too is important to look into for potential.
Any idea what chart is related with the 2nd factor.... LI charts?

Really interested in this as i found out they are only recently being looked into. WOuld make a great Master's thesis if and when i get to do a MSc in Meteorology