This Week's Storms - FORECAST, MODEL DISCUSSION ONLY

mickger844posts

Another 06Z GFS of second storm. Unreal if that came off :eek:

Spindle

With the second storm developing further south, does this make it less likely to track higher north and miss us? If it comes to Wednesday and the charts are still showing this I hope people actually pay attention to it. It looks like a big event.

corkman123

what about tuesdays storm? will the winds still be strong down south?

Conrach

UKMO recent NI forecast for Tuesday to Thursday.

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Gales or severe gales with showers on Tuesday these wintry. Windy with wintry showers on Wednesday. Dry and bright at first on Thursday but gales and heavy rain later.

Updated: 1143 on Sun 11 Dec 2011

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ni/ni_forecast_weather.html

Neddyusa

.

John.Icy

Here's the 6z for +114, 6 hours previous to redsunsets one...this shows potentially how severe this thing could get.

only one

Warnings


Weather Warning

Issued at 11 December 2011 - 12:01
Weather Advisory
The weather in the coming week will be very windy alot of the time with some stormy episodes expected. At the moment later Tuesday or Wednesday and Thursday night/Friday look to be especially at risk.
Some falls of sleet or snow will occur at times also especially in the North and West.
There is also the risk of some flooding especially along the Atlantic sea board where there will be very high seas and swell coinciding with high tides.

Gale Warning

Southwest to west winds will reach gale force at times later today and early tonight on Irish coastal waters from Mizen Head to Erris Head to Fair Head
Issued at 05:00 on 11-Dec-2011

Small Craft Warning

Southwest to west winds will reach force 6 or higher tonight on coasts from Fair Head to Carnsore Point to Mizen Head.
Issued at 05:00 on 11-Dec-2011

maquiladora

From the look of that 06z gfs Tuesday doesnt look as bad, but havent seen the other models this morning.

Mullaghteelin

I thought the centre of the storm looked unrealistically large on those weatheronline charts, but now I realize they dont depict pressures lower than 950hpa!
Perhaps Im a bit slow for only noticing that now.

premiercad

"Seriously, are there wind speeds at which wind turbines become dangerous in terms of their rpm's? The west coast has hundreds of turbines, if not thousands. They will be flat out this week."


High winds are no good to wind turbines, and especially strong gusts play havoc with them, they are designed for nice constant medium wind and are actually very efficient on lower wind days , next week could see a lot of farms shut down and turbines go into weathercock mode where blades are turned edge first to the wind and clutched into neutral.

tylercollins

Metoffice have taken down the yellow warning for Northern Ireland on Tuesday, it has now moved to Wales and South of England.

Probably just going to be the average windy day on Tuesday now in Northern Ireland.

P.S. Wish these storms would happen at the weekend

cherryghost

Through all this, there is potential for some snow fall :P

Sierra Oscar

tylercollins wrote: »

Metoffice have taken down the yellow warning for Northern Ireland on Tuesday, it has now moved to Wales and South of England.

Probably just going to be the average windy day on Tuesday now in Northern Ireland.

Indeed, and a catch all wind warning has been extended across the entirety of Ireland for Thursday.

Pangea

What happened Tuesdays storm?
I thought we were in the firing line.

Pangea

Never mind ,MET UK have yellow warning back on for NI.
They tend to take down warnings and them update them, part of the rollercoaster sure!

What a pretty sight!
Tuesday


Thursday

maquiladora

UKMO arent responsible for issuing warnings for the republic, thats why tuesdays chart looks like it does, not becausre the wind hits wales, cornwall and NI but by magic not the republic!

The alert area covering all of Ireland for the second storm is something Ive never seen before from the Met Office.

seanknowsall

Expect significant downgrade for both these events.... Tuesday will be a breezy day in most of Ireland with perhaps a gale of the north west coast. Nothing unusual in that. Friday's "once-in-a-lifetime" event will downgraded significantly by Wednesday and will take a more northerly route. Nothing more than strong gales off the north coast for a few hours. All this hype about storms etc is just setting weather lovers up for another big disappintment yet again. I going to go mountain climbing on Friday in Sligo to prove that this is all hype. And before anyone says it... I can read weather maps and I understand basic meteorology... I could go into why I think these storms wont happen from a sciency point of view but I cant be bothered as I know and trust my gut instinct. Think I will put up a few outdoor Christmas decorations on Thursday.....

corkman123

exactly, all this weather hype is ridiculous.. id love to be proven wrong though!

WolfeIRE

You know it's not going to happen but 'couldn't be bothered explaining' why?

Sean....troll, goblin, garden gnome forum is that way ->

MiNdGaM3

A quick analysis of Thursday/Friday's storm of the 06z GFS ensembles show...
12 of the runs develop a significant storm, 7 ordinary depressions and 1 has practically nothing
Of the significant storms, 11 have their strongest winds occurring between t114 (12 midnight) and t120 (6am Friday), and 1 Thursday afternoon
During peak winds across Ireland,
1 run goes <930hPa
1 run goes 930-935hPa
2 runs go 935-940hPa
3 runs go 940-945hPa
5 runs go 945-950hPa

10 of the storms go to or across the North of Ireland
2 of the storms go across the center of Ireland

MetLuver

Neddyusa wrote: »

.

Yes, Yes, I agree totally. I couldn't have put it better myself :pac:

Spindle

seanknowsall wrote: »

Expect significant downgrade for both these events.... Tuesday will be a breezy day in most of Ireland with perhaps a gale of the north west coast. Nothing unusual in that. Friday's "once-in-a-lifetime" event will downgraded significantly by Wednesday and will take a more northerly route. Nothing more than strong gales off the north coast for a few hours. All this hype about storms etc is just setting weather lovers up for another big disappintment yet again. I going to go mountain climbing on Friday in Sligo to prove that this is all hype. And before anyone says it... I can read weather maps and I understand basic meteorology... I could go into why I think these storms wont happen from a sciency point of view but I cant be bothered as I know and trust my gut instinct. Think I will put up a few outdoor Christmas decorations on Thursday.....

Could you explain the "scinecy" points that make you believe the storm wont be that bad? Seems like you know more than the supercomputers generating these models apart from how to spell that is.

seanknowsall

WolfeIRE wrote: »

You know it's not going to happen but 'couldn't be bothered explaining' why?

Sean....troll, goblin, garden gnome forum is that way ->

Now Now just because I not going along with the all the hype that you are spouting......

darkman2

I know most are focusing on fairly severe storm potential on Thursday but don't forget there is a real risk of snow at times in many places on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday due to returning polar maritime air. Tuesday and Wednesday look very bitter in the midlands and east in particular with temperatures probably no high then 2 or 3c for most. Add in the wind chill and that is not going to be at all comfortable.

In fact I think this should be mentioned in the thread title or else some are going to be very surprised.

seanknowsall

Spindle wrote: »

Could you explain the "scinecy" points that make you believe the storm wont be that bad? Seems like you know more than the supercomputers generating these models apart from how to spell that is.

I can spell just as good as others... a typo is hardly proof one cant spell... you "think you know it" tool

ninebeanrows

seanknowsall wrote: »

Expect significant downgrade for both these events.... Tuesday will be a breezy day in most of Ireland with perhaps a gale of the north west coast. Nothing unusual in that. Friday's "once-in-a-lifetime" event will downgraded significantly by Wednesday and will take a more northerly route. Nothing more than strong gales off the north coast for a few hours. All this hype about storms etc is just setting weather lovers up for another big disappintment yet again. I going to go mountain climbing on Friday in Sligo to prove that this is all hype. And before anyone says it... I can read weather maps and I understand basic meteorology... I could go into why I think these storms wont happen from a sciency point of view but I cant be bothered as I know and trust my gut instinct. Think I will put up a few outdoor Christmas decorations on Thursday.....

To be honest there is alot of bull**** being posted on here lately. Like for example the prediction for the storm during the week. The prediction quoted Potential and always noted it was likely to just affect the north coast and into Scotland. The charts never actually showed the storm affecting anywhere other thank ulster and north Connacht, but there was trending to move south which was highlighted on here at one point, but this was never indicated on OP runs. The fact was 90mph gusts were recorded in Malin Head and Scotland suffered a severe storm.

Also i hear talk about this Tuesday storm being downplayed 'as usual'. The fact was Tuesday storm doesn't look much different to when it was modelled at its most severe, it was always highlighted that it would likely have peak gusts around 70 knots, which is still expected. We just warned that it would be possible that it could strengthen further in upcoming model runs. The fact is a moderate storm will push to our north Tuesday and will bring winds pretty much as predicted a few days ago, although as ever nothing is certain and detail could change again.

Perhaps if people read what is actually written instead of glancing at a line and making their conclusion you might know the whole story.

It seems people hear what they want to hear and then go throwing their toys out of their pram when what they wanted to happen doesn't come to pass, for this you can only blame yourself.

WolfeIRE

seanknowsall wrote: »

Now Now just because I not going along with the all the hype that you are spouting......

I am more than happy to warn of the potential dangers assoicated with the coming week's weather as opposed to the 'I am going mountain climbing on Thursday to prove you wrong' message you are promoting.

I have never seen a storm this powerful on the charts in the short term. I think a serious discussion of its potential is warranted.

Conrach

maquiladora wrote: »

UKMO arent responsible for issuing warnings for the republic, thats why tuesdays chart looks like it does, not becausre the wind hits wales, cornwall and NI but by magic not the republic!

The alert area covering all of Ireland for the second storm is something Ive never seen before from the Met Office.

I was just about to comment on that Maq. After all the years I have followed the weather I have never seen the UKMO do this! I have trying to think of the reasoning behind it and was going to ask on here.

WolfeIRE

Latest from UKMO
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=5

Latest from Simon Keeling of weatheronline.co.uk. He explains the setup quite well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6J8DxTNG5PM

Spindle

WolfeIRE wrote: »

I am more than happy to warn of the potential dangers assoicated with the coming week's weather as opposed to the 'I am going mountain climbing on Thursday to prove you wrong' message you are promoting.

I have never seen a storm this powerful on the charts in the short term. I think a serious discussion of its potential is warranted.

Plus when did you ever see Met Eireann have a warning like this,

Issued at 11 December 2011 - 12:01
Weather Advisory
The weather in the coming week will be very windy for a lot of the time with some stormy episodes expected. At the moment, later Tuesday or Wednesday and Thursday night/Friday look to be especially at risk.

Normally they play it very safe, of course there is uncertainty but there is the risk this could be bad, it is better to be warned than have it come out of nowhere. Having said that I don't think it will be the end of the world either.