This Week's Storms - FORECAST, MODEL DISCUSSION ONLY

Sponge Bob

www.Meteoalarm.eu

Su Campu

Jersey Met Aviation chart for this evening (updates automatically).



The Met Éireann equivalent for midnight tonight shows the low of 976 hPa between the Isle of Wight and Cherbourg, and a low of 984 hPa northwest of Malin Head, at 57N 10W.

For Ireland, it gives light rain showers, occasionally moderate in the west coast. Freezing level 1000 ft (300 m) over Ulster and Leinster.

The trailing occlusion affects the far north and northeastern coastal counties and western Scotland, bringing snow and sleet showers on mountains, otherwise rain and sleet showers. Isolated graupel showers and thunderstorms along coasts.

For the far southeastern coast, as well as Wales, southern England and northern France, it gives occasional moderate rain, drizzle and sleet.

Su Campu

A nice animation showing the global circulation of weather systems over the past 72 hours based on the total precipitable water (TPW) measured by the polar-orbiting satellite scans. Warm humid air is orange/yellow/blue, cold polar air is purplish yellow. It's a large file so give it a minute to load.

We can see tonight's storm start off south of New Fouldland as a northward plume of warm tropical air, before being caught in the jetstream and dragged eastwards.




Archive here.

Wild Bill

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Ye are such girls, Mon/Tue will be a Mehhhh! like I said days ago

Feckin thread is all OMG OMG OMG crap.

I must apologise for doubting you, Great Sponge.

You nailed it! :cool:

Sponge Bob

Su Campus post just above yours shows why models cannot really predict nasty propulsive storms a long way out in time. Many variables must come together, eg the Jet Stream, to accelerate and rotate the systems into a frenzy. That is why the Thursday / Friday storm is now coming ashore in Brittany and not here.

Actually, anyone come across this site, I likes it a lot for quick up to date stat attacks on individual Met stations > http://www.xcweather.co.uk/ Dont remember it mentioned as much as Ogimet but more usable in the short term.

Obviously if you live in the wesht like I do then nothing will beat raintoday.co.uk

You can watch France here, http://www.xcweather.co.uk/FR/observations click wind and click on an individual station.

Rougies

Su Campu wrote: »

A nice animation showing the global circulation of weather systems over the past 72 hours based on the total precipitable water (TPW) measured by the polar-orbiting satellite scans.

Brilliant, thanks for that animation and the link.

nudge, nudge, nudge, BOOM!!! ....into France unfortunately

Sponge Bob

Top Gust in Malin was last week not this week , 78KT or 144kph on the 9th

The 13th ( Tuesday ) was second highest.

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=03980&ano=2011&mes=12&day=31&hora=24&min=0&ndays=31

However if you look at the Met site the top gust on the 9th and 13th between them is showing 70KT on the 13th in Malin.

http://www.met.ie/climate/daily-data.asp

Belmullet did not burst 70KT and Ogimet has it right I think.

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=03976&ano=2011&mes=12&day=31&hora=24&min=0&ndays=31

premiercad

It would appear a week trough is going to pass over today which might help ramp up these showers if it stays cold enough, currently a finger of showers extending from Donegal to Dublin and another line just off the north coast. :-)

Wild Bill

premiercad wrote: »

It would appear a week trough is going to pass over today which might help ramp up these showers if it stays cold enough, currently a finger of showers extending from Donegal to Dublin and another line just off the north coast. :-)

Is that the same thing (albeit on a much greater scale) as the streamers from the Irish Sea?

Sponge Bob

Ah lads, the storm is in SW Germany now, can we lock this one up?

Wild Bill

No before someone answers my question :mad:

or i may be forced to sthamp my feet.

premiercad

Wild Bill wrote: »

premiercad wrote: »

It would appear a week trough is going to pass over today which might help ramp up these showers if it stays cold enough, currently a finger of showers extending from Donegal to Dublin and another line just off the north coast. :-)

Is that the same thing (albeit on a much greater scale) as the streamers from the Irish Sea?

Kinda, these are embedded weak lows that are getting swallowed up, they tend to raise air temps/ warmer airmass as they pass over so more precip but rain sleet mix more likely. Streamers are just showers in a steady cold air mass coming off the warm sea

waterways

Interesting sat image of the storm centre north of Cologne.

Su Campu

Latest observations from the German Weather Service.

http://www.dwd.de/bvbw/appmanager/bvbw/dwdwwwDesktop?_nfpb=true&_pageLabel=dwdwww_start&T3200069671164966398067gsbDocumentPath=Navigation%2FOeffentlichkeit%2FWetter__Warnungen%2FWetter__Deutschland%2FFormulare%2FStdAw__node.html%3F__nnn%3Dtrue

Wind direction = DD
Mean speed = FF
Gust = FX

Kiel Lighthouse, on the North Sea coast, is reporting 58 knot mean winds at 1400, while Brocken (1132 m) has 83 gusting 101 knots.

There are inland and low level places also reporting mean winds above 50 knots, eg. Karlsruhe (116 m) 54 gust 72 knots, Aachen (231 m) 50 gust 83 knots.

Germany's highest mountain, Zugspitze (manned station at 2960 m) 119 gust 184 knots at 1200CET! Imagine being the observer on duty up there!!

Sponge Bob

The Zugspitze is a tad higher than that Scottish one that reported 150kt last week. Around 9000 ft. Been up there in summer.

leahyl

Su Campu wrote: »

Germany's highest mountain, Zugspitze (manned station at 2960 m) 119 gust 184 knots at 1200CET! Imagine being the observer on duty up there!!

Went up the Zugspitze myself when I was on a school trip in secondary school - very cool! A snow lovers dream!:D

Sponge Bob

leahyl wrote: »

A snow lovers dream!:D

Not in June my son

leahyl

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Not in June my son

well I was there in October!:D

Deep Easterly

Where it's at on latest XCWeather observations:



Cochstedt Airport reported a pressure reading of 964hPa at 2.20pm but Berlin-Tegel to the east reporting 967 hPa at 3.20pm which suggests that the low is probably beginning to fill a tad at this stage.
Wet snow and sleet is being reported also in regions north and west of the low center though no exceptional windspeeds on these particular reports anyway. (Looking at German Obs only)

Sponge Bob

Core pressure was around 980 this am as it passed through Normandy and Picardy

M.T. Cranium

I had this interesting thought, no doubt seasonally influenced ... how are we to know that when people hear about a severe storm possibly coming their way, that they don't pray to be delivered from it, and that God has the power to over-ride the natural laws that the models had been processing, if only for a time, to send the storm away? This is something not only theoretically possible but a logical consequence of prayer if you believe that there is any point in prayer.

Now you have something different to talk about with the storm that never was (in Ireland at least). And looking at how it actually evolved, thank God that it didn't follow the original track, it would certainly have been every bit as destructive as we speculated on here at the time. If it could deepen from 995 to 965 mbs going due east over land, then think what it might have done travelling northeast mainly over water.

Now, if someone objects, why would God send the storm to France and not Ireland. Well, remember Thierry Henri? Just sayin ...

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I had this interesting thought, no doubt seasonally influenced ... how are we to know that when people hear about a severe storm possibly coming their way, that they don't pray to be delivered from it, and that God has the power to over-ride the natural laws that the models had been processing, if only for a time, to send the storm away? This is something not only theoretically possible but a logical consequence of prayer if you believe that there is any point in prayer.

Now you have something different to talk about with the storm that never was (in Ireland at least). And looking at how it actually evolved, thank God that it didn't follow the original track, it would certainly have been every bit as destructive as we speculated on here at the time. If it could deepen from 995 to 965 mbs going due east over land, then think what it might have done travelling northeast mainly over water.

Now, if someone objects, why would God send the storm to France and not Ireland. Well, remember Thierry Henri? Just sayin ...

If God does exist (and I have yet to hear any concrete proof that he doesn't) then surely the path of this storm was already set in place before time itself? and if so, that any prayers to redirect the tempest were already considered before they were even uttered?

Calibos

Deep Easterly wrote: »

If God does exist (and I have yet to hear any concrete proof that he doesn't) then surely the path of this storm was already set in place before time itself? and if so, that any prayers to redirect the tempest were already considered before they were even uttered?

I'm still waiting on concrete proof that leprechauns don't exist as well and until such time as I get it I would like our weather boardsies to give me the GPS co-ordinates of rainbows when they spot them so I can jump into the car with GPS in one hand and shovel in the other.

Deep Easterly

Calibos wrote: »

I'm still waiting on concrete proof that leprechauns don't exist as well and until such time as I get it I would like our weather boardsies to give me the GPS co-ordinates of rainbows when they spot them so I can jump into the car with GPS in one hand and shovel in the other.

You know they don't exist as they are a product of legend and folklore, which is itself is a product of collective human imagination. The same could be said regarding the idea of God; but on the other hand, could that imagination be a product of something beyond ourselves?

Anyway, back on topic. Storm low is moving into Baltic Sea and appears to be filling a little. Gusty westerly's over Germany at the mo.

TheMilkyPirate

Deep Easterly wrote: »

If God does exist (and I have yet to hear any concrete proof that he doesn't) then surely the path of this storm was already set in place before time itself? and if so, that any prayers to redirect the tempest were already considered before they were even uttered?

What concrete proof have you got that he does! :pac:

gbee

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Now, if someone objects, why would God send the storm to France and not Ireland. Well, remember Thierry Henri? Just sayin ...

Oh, ya, we've not forgiven him for robbing us form a footie match, now you're sayin he stole our storm too?

he does exist !!! hes the weather God, known to us all as M T CRANIUM

Deep Easterly

baraca wrote: »

What concrete proof have you got that he does! :pac:

Equally, there is no proof that he does. Hard to get off the fence on this one!

Su Campu

Politics and Religion......

I think it's time to close this thread. There is the reports and chat thread for any further reports that come in on this system.

74 pages. It's been quite a journey!