This Week's Storms - FORECAST, MODEL DISCUSSION ONLY

M.T. Cranium

00z GEM similar to GFS on first event, continues very intense for Thursday night event (930 mb low, same track).

We await the verdict from Europe now.

mickger844posts

Thursdays beast looks scary but as others have said we have seen this all before on the Boards weather forum over the years. We build up our hopes for them to be dashed. Will these two storms deliver the goods? Interesting week ahead.

nacho libre

yes. we've been here before with the gfs ramping up four-five days out, only then to downgrade a storm significantly closer to time. if the ecmwf agrees within 48 hours of Thursday's storm, then yes it's time to prepare for something big.

M.T. Cranium

The GME has weighed in with a very intense solution for Tuesday !

Could this signal that the main Euro models will follow that trend?

By the way, intense or not, Tuesday is going to turn damn cold and that may really be the main story for most. Mixed wintry showers sort of cold.

M.T. Cranium

UKMO ... stays in touch on both storms, would rate it middle of intensity pack at the moment on both.

ECM ... plot thickens on storm one, ECM now featuring a hang-back trough that may focus the strongest winds as late as Wednesday morning. This is out of sync with other guidance and could just be a reflection of the energy in the main trough. Worth hedging into forecasts at this stage. And storm two is pulled into the remnants of this complex mess at some explosive stage of deepening Thursday afternoon-evening. Model solution at present is still an intense windstorm for most parts of Ireland (Thursday night into Friday). Not quite as apocalyptic as some previous runs.

General conclusions (for me) ... play the forecasts conservatively but stressing potential ... first storm most likely to peak at minor damage, second storm still in play for moderate damage.

Also, should stress near-continuous "bad" weather all week, the details keep changing but it's a grab bag of foul weather of all sorts, basically. :eek:

Wild Bill

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Ye are such girls, Mon/Tue will be a Mehhhh! like I said days ago

Feckin thread is all OMG OMG OMG crap.

Jeez Sponge - who stole your Christmas spirit? :cool:

Steopo

After reading MT & ME outlooks for the week I'm getting the Christmas shopping done today & leaving the outdoor decorations in the box for another week! Gloomy week ahead (or exciting depending on your perspective) Let's hope we're not reading about flooding horror stories & damaged property by next weekend - never good to have homes flooded but especially the week b4 Christmas

leahyl

Christ almighty lads major upgrade from
Met Eireann since I read their site last! I'm getting worried about my Chrustmas night out on Thurs now....er....maybe not such a good idea? We'll see!

Wild Bill

mickger844posts wrote: »

Thursdays beast looks scary but as others have said we have seen this all before on the Boards weather forum over the years. We build up our hopes for them to be dashed. Will these two storms deliver the goods? Interesting week ahead.

Isn't that just the most beautifully symmetrical storm you've ever seen?

Ogie84

ME's current outlook states:

"Present indications suggest that another spell of extremely windy weather will develop during Thursday, with spells of heavy thundery rain, accompanied by strong to gale force and gusty southerly winds. These winds will veer southwest to westerly later in the day and during Thursday night and the rain will give way to squally blustery showers, some possibly wintry. It will become stormy overnight and for Friday, with some severe and potentially damaging winds likely in many places. "

Min

It is looking like continuous windy weather on the 6h GFS between the two storm systems, with the first system being a complex low system which has a secondary low coming close to the north west coast

Min

This GFS run has the Thursday/Friday storm has the centre of the low moving across Ulster.

rushbrook

One of the few great pleasures in living in this island off Western Europe is that we get tremendous deviation in our weather . This allows for a weather forum that forecasts an incredible amount of weather variation (except maybe heat-waves )

Anyway, my point here is that u read this forum to be made aware of the potential of a storm and to make necessary precautions closer to the event. There seems to be a lot of people who post in and are dismissive of some very experienced amateur contributors when the "event" doesn't pan out the way they wanted it.

I think this forum is brilliant and convinced me to buy a weather station that sadly a cat took great exception to. I hope nobody ever gets put-off making their own observations by the mindless few ignorant posts.

howlinwolf

i find it strange that met eireann have absolutley no weather warning about monday night/tuesday storm its only 36 to 48 hours away? in fairness they got it pretty much spot on with the storm a few days ago while most people on here where goin for the omg storm of the century stuff so i feel if they (met) dont give some serious warnings about monday night then im not too worried. i no the weather has been fairly mundane the last few months but i feel the ramping of systems on here has been over the top to say the least......wont stop my addiction to coming on every day and gettin excited though;)

gbee

Wild Bill wrote: »

Isn't that just the most beautifully symmetrical storm you've ever seen?

Is it time to start calling it the 'perfect storm?' ?

howlinwolf

rushbrook wrote: »

One of the few great pleasures in living in this island off Western Europe is that we get tremendous deviation in our weather . This allows for a weather forum that forecasts an incredible amount of weather variation (except maybe heat-waves )

Anyway, my point here is that u read this forum to be made aware of the potential of a storm and to make necessary precautions closer to the event. There seems to be a lot of people who post in and are dismissive of some very experienced amateur contributors when the "event" doesn't pan out the way they wanted it.

I think this forum is brilliant and convinced me to buy a weather station that sadly a cat took great exception to. I hope nobody ever gets put-off making their own observations by the mindless few ignorant posts.

there not mindless ignorant posts,just because some people feel some other people are over hypeing or ramping doesnt mean they are ignorant. predicting the weather is incredible hard and i take my hat off to all the people who can do this ( i wish i could too) but if someone thinks something isnt going to be as bad as someone elsa doesnt mak ethem wrong.....remember like it or not prob 90% of events are downgraded from earlier predictions.

gbee

howlinwolf wrote: »

......wont stop my addiction to coming on every day and gettin excited though;)

As time goes by, it will have depended on the actual system and how it effected the public.

Met Eireann have been both spectacularly wrong as well as 'on the ball' ~ for me personally, their inconsistency and again for me, their pedantic presentation of the weather reports sent me looking elsewhere for information.

My short synopsis is that sometimes the extremist are right, I liked Accuweather for a while but they are not worth looking at currently IMO, Joe Bastardi left them under a cloud for his over eager reporting of events that did not materialise, yet he said 'wall to wall tornadoes, like hell on earth' about a killer outbreak of tornadoes earlier this year in the US, so where do you go?

maquiladora

howlinwolf wrote: »

i find it strange that met eireann have absolutley no weather warning about monday night/tuesday storm its only 36 to 48 hours away? in fairness they got it pretty much spot on with the storm a few days ago while most people on here where goin for the omg storm of the century stuff so i feel if they (met) dont give some serious warnings about monday night then im not too worried. i no the weather has been fairly mundane the last few months but i feel the ramping of systems on here has been over the top to say the least......wont stop my addiction to coming on every day and gettin excited though;)

Last weeks storm was only ever going to affect the far north coast, it was Scotland that was in the firing line and it was a serious storm for Scotland.

The coming two potential storms look like affecting areas further south.

UK Met Office have had an early warning out since Friday. Met Eireann dont do early warnings, you probably wont see a warning until later tonight or early tomorrow.

dfbemt

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Ye are such girls, Mon/Tue will be a Mehhhh! like I said days ago

Feckin thread is all OMG OMG OMG crap.

And you had to read 340+ posts to arrive at that conclusion

irish1967

Like probably a lot on here I came on this morning almost positive I would see the usual downgrade. And it didn't happen.

That is just plain weird.

What goes up must come down .... Doesn't it ?

gbee

dfbemt wrote: »

And you had to read 340+ posts to arrive at that conclusion

I does not feel like 340 posts, I read them as they drop in, one post at a time and I rarely go back, it's as fluid as the real weather.

dfbemt

NEWSFLASH - The recession is over and we are rich again !!

If only we could find a way to store all this wind energy we would be quids in for the next few years.

Seriously, are there wind speeds at which wind turbines become dangerous in terms of their rpm's? The west coast has hundreds of turbines, if not thousands. They will be flat out this week.

gbee

dfbemt wrote: »

They will be flat out this week.

Moving camera to wind farm in anticipation of repeating the Scottish wind turbine explosion. Good tip.

howlinwolf

maquiladora wrote: »

Last weeks storm was only ever going to affect the far north coast, it was Scotland that was in the firing line and it was a serious storm for Scotland.

The coming two potential storms look like affecting areas further south.

UK Met Office have had an early warning out since Friday. Met Eireann dont do early warnings, you probably wont see a warning until later tonight or early tomorrow.

have to disagree to a certain extent, there was a good few posts on here saying that the storm eye was dropping more south and heading nearer ireland and some people said that it would veer north like a lot of these sysyems in the last 24 hrs but where told it wasnt going to happen. agreed a lot of people said it would slam scotland and n ireland would see the worst winds. i suppose if it was that easy to predict everybody would be doin it:)

maquiladora

howlinwolf wrote: »

maquiladora wrote: »

Last weeks storm was only ever going to affect the far north coast, it was Scotland that was in the firing line and it was a serious storm for Scotland.

The coming two potential storms look like affecting areas further south.

UK Met Office have had an early warning out since Friday. Met Eireann dont do early warnings, you probably wont see a warning until later tonight or early tomorrow.

have to disagree to a certain extent, there was a good few posts on here saying that the storm eye was dropping more south and heading nearer ireland and some people said that it would veer north like a lot of these sysyems in the last 24 hrs but where told it wasnt going to happen. agreed a lot of people said it would slam scotland and n ireland would see the worst winds. i suppose if it was that easy to predict everybody would be doin it:)

Well i cant speak for anyone else but it was pretty obvious on the models that the highest winds were always going to hit Scotland.

That is not the case with these potential storms, though of course that could change.

By the way, Met Eireann forecast this morning: "It will become stormy overnight and for Friday, with some severe and potentially damaging winds likely in many places."

John.Icy

Maq is correct howlin. There was never going to be a huge wind for the South. Always was Scotland, and NI to a lesser extent.

maquiladora

On my fone at the moment so havent had a chance to check the 06Z runs. Any change?

John.Icy

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-114.png?6

Very severe 6z for the second system!

Can someone fix that up to a permanent map? On phone..cheers.

Redsunset

Here you go Maq,

leahyl

redsunset wrote: »

Here you go Maq,

Tuesdays storm doesn't look like it will be as bad for the South am I right?