Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium · 20-05-2011 06:38PM

UPDATE -- Alert now posted for heavy rainfalls and strong winds

This alert is to confirm that heavy rainfalls will develop late tonight and Saturday morning in many areas, with 20-30 mms potential, and although rather windy during this rainfall, much stronger winds will follow with a second frontal disturbance also bringing 5-10 mms further rainfall and some squally showers Saturday night into Sunday morning.

The strongest winds will arrive on the Atlantic coast around 2100h to midnight Saturday and persist most of the night, easing slowly on Sunday morning. Gusts to 65 mph (about 110 km/hr) are likely in exposed areas on both the west and south coasts, and to 80 mph (130 km/hr) on higher terrain well exposed to the west. These strong winds will start from a SSW direction and veer more to westerly before easing. For the Dublin area and most of the eastern counties, would expect an interval of 50 mph gusts before dawn on Sunday, and another blast of wind from the west locally enhanced by gaps in the eastern hills. Some areas can be sheltered from these winds while others see locally stronger gusts.

Anyone living in hilly terrain in the west might also experience locally damaging gusts due to lee wave effects, allowing small funnel type cloud formations to bounce along the surface. Would not be unduly concerned but we do expect to hear one or two reports of local wind damage as this system blows through, but remember, that means your chances of getting wind damage are about one in a million.

M.T. Cranium · 21-05-2011 06:42AM

Saturday, 21 May, 2011
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TODAY ... Wet and windy to start, with the southeast last into the rain, and potential for 15-25 mms across the country, heavier north and west ... some brighter intervals developing, limited sunshine but the rain should temporarily end mid-day west and afternoon east, while throughout, the winds remain moderately strong S to SW 25-45 mph, with a few higher gusts. Highs 14-16 C but rather chilly until the rain ends. Slight chance of thunder developing across Leinster and eastern Munster mid-day.

TONIGHT ... (alert) Becoming very windy with further rain or squally showers, winds SW 35-55 mph but gusts to 65 mph in Connacht and some parts of west Munster (and 75 mph on high summits) ... risk of some local wind damage especially near hills ... lows near 8 C but feeling very cold where exposed to the wind. Further rainfalls 5-10 mms.

SUNDAY ... Strong winds abating mid-morning, veering to westerly 40-60 mph briefly then settling in at 30-45 mph much of the day, with a lot of cloud left over, some light rain or drizzle becoming confined to northern counties by afternoon, and late day clearing for a few hours. Highs 12-14 C and feeling quite chilly.

MONDAY ... Another storm will rapidly develop and it will become wet and windy again, with another surge of very strong winds in the evening and overnight into Tuesday morning. Lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C, rainfalls of 10-30 mms, winds WSW 40-60 mph and some charts now showing alert conditions to 75 mph in coastal Mayo and Donegal. Stay tuned...

TUESDAY ... Rapid improvements across the south as the strong winds pull away from the north by mid-day and the cloud should part more readily than with the weekend storm. Winds westerly and quite strong in the morning, then moderate by afternoon. Lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C north, 14 C south.

WEDNESDAY to SATURDAY ... It is a rather "close run thing" but models continue to plant high pressure over Ireland and hold back the storm that wants to make it "three in a row" forcing that to spin around between Ireland and the Azores, and allowing the high to promote a weak easterly flow that should be dry and a bit warmer than of late. Temperatures should rise a degree or two each day until a peak around Sunday of 20-22 C in places. The first part of this dry spell could also give scattered ground frosts well inland, these more likely Wednesday and Thursday. Eventually this warmer dry spell should end with a modified cool northwesterly but there may not be much rain with this air mass change.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Widespread heavy showers and thunderstorms in a zone from about Dallas to Saint Louis, and also rain breaking out across the Dakotas and parts of western Canada. Dry and warm further west around the Pacific coast but clouding over now. The east remains a bit unsettled in the dying remnants of an old swirl of low pressure off the New England coast, radar was showing a few thunderstorms moving southwest in that region on Friday, but the sun was finally out in a few places too, allowing temperatures to recover to near normal values (around 20 to 23 C at this point).

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday 20th was the rare perfect day with warm sunshine and low humidity. Figures that a long weekend is now starting and cloud is moving in. The high was about 22 C. Not expecting a total washout, just a lot of cloud and scattered showers.

M.T. Cranium · 21-05-2011 07:54PM

UPDATE _ Saturday 8 p.m.
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This update concerns the second wind event in the forecast predicted for late Monday. The first event is on track and should begin to ramp up soon in western counties, as the low moves northeast through Donegal Bay around midnight and into western Scotland by morning. See the forecast above for details on this first event.

The second wind event now looks even stronger than previously depicted on all the reliable models, and forecast is now amended for SW winds of 45-70 mph over much of Ireland on Monday with 55-80 mph possible in parts of Connacht and west Munster. The strongest winds are now expected to arrive Monday early afternoon and persist through to late evening, gradually abating overnight except in north coast regions which will stay very windy until mid-morning Tuesday.

This intensification seems to have thrown the models into general confusion about events later in the week. The four models that I consider most reliable have basically four different solutions for the next disturbance in the series which they were all discounting in previous model runs. Now the ideas for the late week weather scenario range from unchanged (high pressure building in, the next low fizzling out to the south), to another strong low with strong winds late Wednesday and further showery weather to the weekend, to the third low becoming moderately strong and grinding to a halt over Ireland.

I will wait to see if there is a bit more agreement than this by the time I generate the next morning forecast ... this will allow the models two more chances to get their acts together. However, on the balance of the model spread at present, would suggest that Wednesday more likely to be showery than dry now. Beyond that, I don't really see a strong enough consensus to write off the promised warmer and dry spell late in the week and into the weekend, and I hope that won't be the outcome as I think this current progression of fronts has done the trick in terms of easing the dry conditions that were in place, a lot more would be too much of a good thing.

M.T. Cranium · 22-05-2011 06:54AM

Sunday, 22 May, 2011
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TODAY ... From now to about 0930h, there may be a few severe gusts in one or two locations and squally showers with hail, but these conditions will not be all that widespread, just in a few places near higher terrain mostly.

Windy with showers becoming widely separated by later this morning, and turning more to drizzle in northwest and north as the winds gradually decrease, from WSW 35-55 mph down to about 20-40 mph later. The sun may appear in the south at times this afternoon although higher cloud will quickly spread in over all regions from the next, more powerful storm. Highs today around 12 C north to 14 C south.

TONIGHT ... Rain setting in quickly as winds rapidly increase from the SSW, reaching 30-50 mph by midnight and 45-70 mph by morning. About 10-15 mms of rain on average, and lows near 7 C.

MONDAY ... Alert for strong winds in most regions, WSW 40-60 mph in most places and 50-80 mph in exposed west, south coast and upland terrain. Squally showers and perhaps hail and thunder, with variable cloud to follow, further showers, and winds veering to westerly. Staying very windy most of the day. Highs 13-15 C.

TUESDAY ... Overnight, the winds should gradually subside but will stay westerly and remain 20-40 mph for most regions especially Ulster. Lows will reach about 6 C and there will only be light drizzle if any further rain. During the day, it should clear at least partially and turn less windy, with highs of about 12-14 C. Winds backing late in the day to southerly. Cloud increasing again by evening.

WEDNESDAY ... It now looks as though a third storm in the series will try to compete with the first two, and while not quite as strong, the results will be about the same on a more gradual time scale. So Wednesday will slowly become more windy from the south and scattered showers may merge to a general rain especially in the northwest. The southeast could remain largely dry. Lows of about 2-5 C will be followed by highs near 12 C. Rather chilly in a raw breeze with the drizzly rain.

THURSDAY ... Showers, becoming rather heavy for a brief interval, then windy again but this time from the northwest to north, some further rain likely especially north, lows near 7 C and highs only 10-13 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with some sunny intervals, a few showers likely, but not quite as windy. Lows near 6 C and highs near 13 C.

OUTLOOK ... Gradual improvement through the weekend although some indications that another brief squally interval could develop on Saturday morning affecting mostly Ulster and nearby parts of Connacht and Leinster. Winds W to NW could briefly rise to 30-40 mph. Sunday looks likely to be dry and improved over Saturday. Highs around 14 C on Saturday and 17 C on Sunday. The changes are probably related (in terms of model evolution) to the stronger development on Monday but I would hold out this sliver of hope for a return to a better forecast scenario later in the week: if the Monday storm happens to underperform then (can recall this sort of flip-flop on a few occasions) there is some hope of a less active pattern to follow.

The new scenario also makes a warming into June very gradual but there are signs of warm weather at times in the week of 30 May to 3 June now.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Showers and thunderstorms becoming generally less severe but spreading over large parts of the Midwest and northern plains into southern parts of the Canadian prairies. Temperatures throughout near normal. Rather hot and dry in west Texas westward to southern California. Wet and overcast weather has spread into the Pacific northwest and most of British Columbia, with cool to seasonable temperatures.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday 21st was cloudy with light rain or drizzle, but not much accumulation, perhaps 1-2 mms. The high was about 15 C.

Will definitely update today's forecast around 7-8 p.m., drop by and check it out, perhaps the details will change on both the big windstorm and the unsettled weather to follow.

M.T. Cranium · 22-05-2011 07:27PM

Update -- Sunday, 7:30 p.m.

The available guidance for the storm expected late tonight and Monday has not changed very much. Expect winds to increase dramatically after 0300h in western counties and shortly after daybreak in eastern counties, with the peak gustiness likely to develop around 0900h to 1200h on the west coast and just slightly later than that elsewhere.

There is some tendency on the model charts to depict this as a mainly for the northwest counties windstorm, but I suspect that very strong gusts will develop in almost all regions as the jet stream appears to be very strong across the southern half of the country. This will interact with any showers that develop along the fast-moving fronts and following troughs, to "mix down" the stronger winds aloft towards the surface.

My predictions for maximum wind gusts would be around 80 knots in the northwest (this equates to about 90 mph or 140 km/hr) and 60-65 knots or about 70 mph (110 km/hr) in more exposed parts of the south and east. Locations in central Ireland may record maximum gusts around 50 knots, but there is always the risk of tornadic wind streaks in a situation like this -- be assured that many eyes will be watching this storm so the boards forecast and dedicated threads will be updated with any specific alerts if that kind of wind damage appears potentially likely. Just from a modelling point of view (and well in advance of the details of the storm being visible) you would suspect the biggest chance of a tornadic wind streak event here to occur across the central counties towards Meath or Kildare but that's just a general idea of where to look for radar evidence. The timing would be around 1000h to 1300h for the maximum risk.

More updates to follow if necessary, and the Monday morning forecast package may be posted a bit early and then updated as necessary.

Would advise spending the rest of daylight looking around your property for any loose items and assessing if your vehicles would get hit by tree branches or worse from a WSW direction especially if you live in an area that regularly gets stronger winds than most. The one good thing is, President Obama has very little hair to mess up. :cool:

M.T. Cranium · 23-05-2011 06:38AM

Monday, 23 May, 2011
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No major changes in this forecast, including the longer term, but I have added some details for today.

TODAY ... Alert for strong and locally damaging wind gusts

Connacht, already very windy, will experience gale to storm force gusts all morning and well into the afternoon. Heavy showers will turn more squally and then skies will become partly cloudy with passing showers including some hail and thunder. Winds from SSW 45-65 mph will veer to WSW increasing to 50-80 mph, local gusts to 90 mph, and only subside slightly before evening. Rainfalls 10-20 mms, highs 11-13 C, feeling very cold in the wind at times. Rainfalls 10-20 mms. Local flooding near coasts in a few places due to minor storm surges. Very large waves developing, use caution if viewing them later.

Munster, rain ending soon in west, persisting to 1030h east, then becoming quite windy this morning especially in Kerry and Clare, later Cork and Limerick, SSW 40-60 mph, then winds SW 45-65 mph this afternoon, although somewhat higher in exposed hilly areas. Risk of squally showers and even some thunder and hail, locally damaging wind gusts to 80 mph. More sunshine developing later in the day with showers becoming more widely separated although still a few quite heavy. Rainfalls 10-20 mms and highs 13 or 14 C. Some locally high water or flooding near coastal estuaries at high tides.

Leinster, rain becoming heavy for a time, winds rising to SSW 40-60 mph, veering rapidly mid-morning to WSW 45-65 mph, risk of locally severe storms with thunder, hail and damaging wind gusts or even a brief and small tornado (this applies to nearby parts of other regions), watch for updates on this risk ... rainfalls of 15-25 mms, highs 13-15 C and a few sunny intervals by afternoon, showers more isolated, but still quite squally at times, winds rapidly subsiding around 5-7 p.m. to W 20-40 mph.

Ulster ... Rain, heavy at times, winds increasing (in Donegal, already at) SSW 40-60 mph veering to WSW 60-90 mph with locally severe gusts and wind damage quite possible especially in areas well exposed to the Atlantic or between hills to north and south. Slight risk of a tornadic wind streak developing well inland especially south of Lough Neagh. Belfast and parts of Down not quite as windy, WSW 45-65 mph. Mostly cloudy all day but a few glimpses of sunshine late day, as showers become less frequent. Rainfalls 15 to 30 mms, highs 12-14 C. Winds staying strong until about 10 p.m. or so.

TONIGHT (general) ... Winds rapidly decreasing except near north coast where gradually decreasing, by midnight about 20-30 mph W most places, but 30-50 mph north coast. Clear intervals south, mostly cloudy with drizzle or light rain at times north. Lows generally 5-7 C. Feeling much colder in exposed locations.

TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals, some low cloud near north coast, foggy there at times, moderate WNW winds backing to SSW late in day, increasing cloud, highs near 12 C north to 15 C south.

WEDNESDAY ... Increasing cloud in eastern counties, cloudy with occasional rain western counties, becoming foggy over hills, moderate SSE winds and raw near coasts, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C. About 10-20 mms rain in west only.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy, showers, an interval of light winds as low drifts through Ireland in the morning, then an interval with strong northwest winds and scattered showers or coastal drizzle, winds 30-50 mph at times, lows of about 7 C and highs near 13 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, not as windy, a few showers mainly in north, winds WNW 15-30 mph, a bit warmer too, lows near 6 C and highs near 16 C.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, breezy, some showers, perhaps heavy for a while in Ulster and nearby parts of Connacht and Leinster, some sunny intervals, lows near 5 C and highs near 15 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, a bit warmer again, lows near 6 C and highs 14 to 17 C.

OUTLOOK ... Some chance of a warmer interval returning to the charts for the following week ... in the second week out, maps that remind me of the December cold spell, although of course at this time of year, the air mass would be 10-12 C daytime and 4-7 C overnight, with drizzle or rain instead of snow from the Irish Sea. I mention this because it may well not show up again or actually happen, but it looks intriguing (on GFS).

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Sadly, there were some major tornadoes on Sunday, and the city of Joplin Missouri has taken a major hit. There could be a considerable death and damage toll once rescue operations have run their course. It sounds very bad (F4-5) and there is talk of large areas of the city being destroyed, including parts of a hospital and some mega-stores. One never knows, but warnings for this storm may not have been as good as in some cases as the storm arrived totally rain-wrapped and was too massive to escape very easily. Expect to hear about a fairly substantial death toll, I'm sad to say, perhaps over 100. There were many other severe storms from the western Great Lakes to northeast Texas, but none seem to have been overly catastrophic, although there may be one or two isolated deaths given the numbers involved. Further east, it has been turning warmer on Sunday, while the west is generally hot and dry in the south, and cloudy with light rain further north. The weather systems are rather benign in comparison to both central U.S. and Ireland. This tornado disaster, rather than your local windy weather, may cause some changes in the Obama visit, I haven't heard anything as of now.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunday 22nd was cloudy with a few sunny breaks and only a few spits of rain, nothing measurable. Highs around 16 C.

Updates to follow on today's windstorm. But also, monitor the weather report and storm threads in the forum.

M.T. Cranium · 23-05-2011 01:07PM

UPDATE _ Monday, 1:00 p.m.
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Radar now indicating the first signs of what should develop into some scattered squally showers with some hail and thunder, and the slight risk of a minimal tornado capable of doing minor damage. To put that in perspective, there is perhaps a 30% chance that we'll get one report of a small tornado later today, so any one person's chance of seeing that would be about one in three million. But hail, thunder and gusty winds will be much more likely and most people will see at least some (more) of those.

It would appear a bit more likely that locally severe showers might develop in a broad zone from about Limerick northeast to Meath, with a second area across north Mayo into west Ulster.

As I am signing off duty now for a while, I hope anyone familiar with the radar would post any urgent updates if there is significant risk later on.

M.T. Cranium · 24-05-2011 06:26AM

Tuesday, 24 May, 2011
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The weekend outlook has improved marginally as the models seem to be slightly inclined to downgrade the strength of low pressure to the north at that point. On the other hand, the Icelandic volcano ash could become a minor part of the weather and a major nuisance for travel in a few days.

TODAY ... Partly cloudy, a few isolated showers mostly near the west coast but long dry intervals, some sunshine dimmed at times by high cloud and possibly a trace of volcanic dust or ash, with winds WNW 15-30 mph backing late in the day to SSW 10-20 mph. Highs 12-15 C.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, some clear intervals in the southeast, rain edging onto the west coast after midnight, winds SSE 10-20 mph increasing in west to 20-30 mph. Lows 3-6 C east, 6-9 C west.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy, some rather light rain at times, mostly in the west, spreading to the east coast by late afternoon, winds S 15-25 mph, highs near 13 C. Any volcanic ash should decrease for a while as upper level winds turn less favourable for transporting it.

THURSDAY ... Showers, some heavy for a brief interval, then variable cloud, some areas of rain or drizzle, winds turning NNW 20-40 mph, rather chilly by afternoon ... lows 8-10 C and highs 12-14 C. Rain potential through the period about 10-15 mms (probably closer to 5 mms southeast). Some risk of moderate ash deposition in northwest (trace to 1 mm)

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy, a bit warmer, showers arriving by evening and becoming rather heavy for a while in Ulster and Connacht. Winds WNW backing WSW 20-40 mph. Lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C north, 17 C south. Continued slight risk of ash or dust.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, showers probably ending in most areas around mid-morning then some dry intervals, limited sunshine, westerly winds at 15-30 mph, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C. Ash or dust potential may decrease although becoming stronger in Scotland.

SUNDAY ... Cloud and sunshine, isolated showers, breezy, lows near 6 C and highs near 18 C. Ash from Sunday to about Tuesday could reach a maximum, depending on production rates now until then.

OUTLOOK ... A few rather cool and breezy days, with a few showers, near the end of the month but June starting to look promising again as models are now beginning to feature strong high pressure near the Azores building north of Ireland. There could be some warmer easterly type flows, but also intervals that are cooler from north to northeast, into first half of June with this strong signal developing. I think it bodes well for the summer gradually improving relative to normal.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Monday proved a lot less active than the weekend although there were numerous storms from the Great Lakes to Oklahoma. Hot and humid over much of the east now. Cool and dry further north and to the west coast, hot and dry Texas to Arizona and southern Cal inland. Tuesday likely to bring another strong outbreak of severe storms in Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas, Missouri and the Ohio valley, central Great Lakes. Central Oklahoma looks volatile for tornadic outbreaks.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... This was a holiday Monday here and we had a pleasant sunny day with highs near 19 C.

M.T. Cranium · 25-05-2011 07:09AM

Wednesday, 25 May, 2011
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The pattern is showing faint signs of improving by lifting gradually, but there will be somewhat unsettled weather in most regions each of the next six or seven days. A more summery pattern could evolve if this gradual lift succeeds in allowing stronger high pressure to form south of Ireland by middle of next week. Forecast remains almost unchanged from yesterday ...

TODAY ... Cloudy, some rather light to moderate rain at times, mostly in the west, spreading to the east coast by afternoon, winds S 15-25 mph, except 25-35 mph near west coast with some higher gusts, highs generally near 12 or 13 C. Any volcanic ash in the regional atmosphere should decrease for a while as upper level winds turn less favourable for transporting it. Rainfalls today will vary from 10 mms in Connacht to 2 mms in southeast.

TONIGHT ... Rain becoming more showery and perhaps thundery from northwest to southeast with 5-10 mms of rain, winds becoming lighter due to presence of low centre, then northerly for western counties before dawn. Fog and low cloud in this initial phase of the northerly flow. Lows 7-9 C.

THURSDAY ... Showers, some heavy for a brief interval, then variable cloud, some areas of rain or drizzle, winds turning NNW 20-40 mph, rather chilly by afternoon, highs 12-14 C. Rain potential for the rest of the event about 3 mms west to 7 mms east but this would end mid-day in the west. Volcanic dust problems could return later in the day.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy, a bit warmer, showers arriving by evening and becoming rather heavy for a while in Ulster and Connacht. Winds WNW backing WSW 20-40 mph. Lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C north, 17 C south. Rainfall potential 5-10 mms mainly north. Continued slight risk of ash or dust.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, showers probably ending in most areas around mid-morning then some dry intervals, limited sunshine, westerly winds at 15-30 mph, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C. Ash or dust potential may decrease although becoming stronger in Scotland.

SUNDAY ... Cloud and sunshine, isolated showers with a period of heavier showers later in the day, breezy, lows near 6 C and highs near 17 C. Ash from Sunday to about Tuesday could reach a maximum, depending on production rates now until then.

OUTLOOK ... A few rather cool and breezy days, with a few showers, near the end of the month but June starting to look promising again as models are now beginning to feature strong high pressure near the Azores building north of Ireland. There could be some warmer easterly type flows, but also intervals that are cooler from north to northeast, into first half of June with this strong signal developing. I think it bodes well for the summer gradually improving relative to normal.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... On Tuesday, there were major tornadoes, hail and strong winds, as expected from Kansas south to the Dallas-Fort Worth region. Although not as bad as Sunday's storm, some deaths have been reported near Oklahoma City. This front has weakened since about midnight and is now rumbling through Missouri and Arkansas. It remains warm or hot and humid from this front east to the Atlantic now. There are a few other areas of showers and storms, non-severe, in that air mass. The southwest remains hot and dry, although the Great Basin region turned colder with showers into Utah and western Colorado.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks on Tuesday 24th, rather blah, highs near 15 C. Everyone here is more concerned with the local hockey team which won tonight to play in the Cup Final series.

M.T. Cranium · 26-05-2011 06:11AM

Thursday, 26 May, 2011
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Once again, we are being shown a light at the end of the tunnel. This time it looks a bit brighter. Alert for some locally strong wind gusts today to 60 m.p.h. in exposed western counties, then a few more breezy and rather variable days, although possibly not too bad in the south at times, but then generally sunny and warmer in early June.

TODAY ... Windy and rather chilly with heavy showers and possibly a bit of hail or thunder, then a clearing trend moving slowly across the country from west to east. Winds rising to NNW 30-50 mph (40-60 mph in exposed western county locations), some decrease likely by late afternoon. Rainfalls of about 5-10 mms, highs 11-14 C (highest southeast), and sunshine hours about 2-4 in east late today, 6-8 in west starting mid-day.

TONIGHT ... Somewhat less windy and chilly, lows 3-6 C. Winds NW 15-30 mph backing to W 10-20. Slight risk of a few showers far northwest coast.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, more sun in south than elsewhere, westerly breezes 15-30 mph, showers arriving late in day in Connacht and spreading to Ulster overnight. Highs 14-17 C, highest in south and east.

SATURDAY ... Morning showers mostly north of Galway to Dublin, then partly cloudy, breezy, morning lows 6-9 C and afternoon highs 12-15 C.

SUNDAY ... Early morning strong winds in northern counties especially (W 30-50 mph but 45-65 mph in Donegal and nearby parts of some other counties), pelting rain or squally showers for a while mostly north of Mayo to Down, but some lighter showers elsewhere, then gradually improving with winds subsiding. Lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

MONDAY ... Continued breezy and unsettled, lows near 7 C and highs near 15.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, warmer, moderate SW winds to strong SW in Donegal and coastal Mayo. Lows near 5 C and highs near 19 C south, 15 C north.

OUTLOOK ... With the usual caveat, models are advertising quite a warming trend from 1 to 3 June and several warm days to follow. Potentially if these charts verify, we could see highs near 23 C in the inland south and east, to 17 C northwest. Fingers crossed ...

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Wednesday brought further heavy storms and tornadoes to central states, this time from Ohio southwest to Arkansas. I have not heard any reports of severe damage and deaths but numerous reports of moderate damage and some injuries. Heavy rain spread further north into parts of the Great Lakes region. Warm and humid in the southeast and east coast. Cool and dry in north central states, further rain and low cloud in the northwest states and parts of Alberta, B.C. ... hot and dry in the southwest. Unusual weak tornadoes reported in the central valley of California north of Sacramento.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy with rain at times, heavier by evening. High about 14 C.

M.T. Cranium · 27-05-2011 06:13AM

Friday, 27 May, 2011
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TODAY ... Partly cloudy with longer sunny spells in south and east, but some low cloud, drizzle or light rain developing in Connacht by mid-day, spreading to parts of Ulster by late afternoon. Breezy with winds westerly 15-30 mph. Somewhat warmer than yesterday for most, highs 14-17 C (warmest southeast). Rainfalls 2-5 mms in north only, trace to 2 mms late in day in south. Sunshine hours about 5-8 on average.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy north with light rain at times, 2-5 mms, lows near 10 C. Partly cloudy south, isolated showers, lows near 8 C. Breezy for most with winds backing to SW 15-30 mph.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, showers continuing mostly in northern counties, where 2-4 mms possible. Longer sunny breaks in south. Winds SW 15-30 mph and highs 14-16 C, milder south.

SUNDAY ... After a showery night with lows near 8 C, the day will become breezy and becoming windy at times mid-day to afternoon, showers gradually becoming more frequent, heavier in Connacht and later Ulster, 5-10 mms potential. Winds SW 20-40 mph increasing to 30-50 mph in north, highs 13-17 C (coolest in north).

MONDAY ... Windy and rather cold with frequent showers, winds W 25-45 mph with some higher gusts in northwest, lows near 6 C and highs near 13 C.

TUESDAY ... Morning showers, variable cloud, then warmer as winds turn more to southwest, lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C (could reach 18 C in south).

OUTLOOK WED 1st to MON 6th ... Models continue to show this period as a warm, dry spell, with plenty of sunshine and highs 18-22 C in light easterly winds ... it could possibly reach 24 C in west given this set-up. East coast might have some local sea breezes. Despite a few false dawns with this warm spell, I think this signal is probably too strong to be a false start ... although details may change ... and the warm spell could last into mid-week before a cooler turn to northerly winds around the following weekend (this is very preliminary if you have interests in that weekend).

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Widespread rain and heavy storms on Thursday approaching the east coast but the major cities remained dry and sunny or at least hazy with very warm highs of 27-32 C. Cool and dry central states as far south as Oklahoma, hot and dry in the southwest, but Texas in between with the warmer air pushing back in. Showery over the northwest U.S. and most of western Canada. Friday likely to become very hot in TX and OK with severe storms developing in northern OK and central KS.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy but dry, highs near 13 C.

M.T. Cranium · 28-05-2011 07:19AM

Saturday, 28 May, 2011
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TODAY ... Widespread drizzle or light rain in northern and central counties, isolated showers in southern counties this morning ... becoming somewhat brighter in most parts except possibly the far north where showers may prove more persistent this afternoon ... rainfalls 3-7 mms heaviest north ... winds WSW 20-40 mph ... rather chilly with highs 10-13 C north, 13-16 C south.

TONIGHT ... Further showers developing, some heavy at times, amounts 3 to 7 mms, heavier west and north ... breezy or windy, WSW 20-35 mph ... lows around 8 C.

SUNDAY ... Showers likely ending in most areas for part of the day, sunny intervals developing, still quite breezy (SW 20-40 mph gusting to 50 mph in northwest), highs in north about 12-14 C and south 14-16 C. Showers returning by late afternoon west or evening elsewhere.

MONDAY ... Overnight rain, windy, then a showery day with some brighter intervals, windy at times (W 20-40 mph), lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

TUESDAY ... Morning showers, then partly cloudy, breezy, lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Early morning rain from a warm front ( :cool: ) then some hazy sunshine developing, turning warmer. Lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C.

THURSDAY to MONDAY ... Models continue to agree that this period, including the Bank Holiday weekend, should be warmer and settled with sunshine, light winds from an easterly direction, and potentially quite warm especially away from the east and south coasts, highs possibly 22-24 C.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Friday was very hot in the southwest, Texas and western Oklahoma with highs to 43 C around Abilene TX ... further north in the plains states, seasonably warm but not much over 25 C ... tonight, a few dry thunderstorms have begun to develop in Kansas ... the northwest states and much of BC, Alberta, are cloudy and showery ... further east, warm and humid over most of the eastern third of the U.S. with heavy rains in places, highs generally 25-30 C. Today, heavier storms will develop in Kansas, Nebraska and Missouri as the hot, increasingly humid air moves further north.

My long-range forecast for the summer indicates that much of the northeast U.S. and Midwest may be considerably cooler than last summer's scorcher, and below average too, with above normal rainfall. I'm expecting hotter than average conditions in the southern plains and inland west.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy with some rain in the morning mostly, a few brief sunny breaks later, highs near 14 C. Still plenty of snow above 1200metres here, and widespread flood concerns once that snow begins to melt in June.

M.T. Cranium · 29-05-2011 06:57AM

Sunday, 29 May, 2011
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TODAY ... Another wave of showers will quickly cross northern counties this morning, with some westerly winds at 30-50 mph at times, giving 3-5 mms but the south will get away with trace to 2 mm amounts in more scattered showers there, accompanied by westerly winds 20-40 mph ... then the sun should come out from time to time by mid-day and afternoon, with the southwest wind remaining fairly constant at 20-30 mph. Highs 13-17 C from north to south.

TONIGHT ... Becoming showery again with some rather blustery SW winds at times (30-50 mph), lows near 10 C and rainfalls of 3-5 mms, possibly up to 8 mms in Connacht.

MONDAY ... Dry and in places sunny intervals developing again, winds staying rather strong at WSW 20-40 mph, highs 13-17 C from north to south. Monday night will become windy and showery with 5-10 mms of rain in most places. Winds will increase to WSW 30-55 mph with some strong gusts near the west coast at times.

TUESDAY ... Once again, after lows near 8 C, the morning showers should clear away east and leave most places partly cloudy, breezy and a bit warmer by afternoon, with highs reaching 14-18 C north to south.

WEDNESDAY ... Patchy low cloud and drizzle in the morning across the north and west, lifting during the day, hazy sunshine developing there, otherwise partly cloudy to sunny as the day progresses, warmer, lows near 8 C and highs 17-20 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny, hazy and warmer for most, lows 6-9 C and highs 19-22 except a bit cooler close to the outer coasts, light and variable winds allowing sea breezes in most regions.

FRIDAY to MONDAY ... The warm, dry spell should continue except now with a more developed east to northeast breeze that will favour a cooling sea breeze on the east and north coasts only. Highs will range from 19 to 24 C except near 16 C in sea breezes. The warmest temperatures are likely to be found in central and western counties and the inland south. Slight cooling may develop on the outer south coast too.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The pleasant summery spell may break down fairly quickly mid-week in a more northerly flow, but it may not entirely collapse given that skies could remain partly cloudy and the ground will be quite warm after almost a week of warmth, which suggests daytime highs could recover in the cooler air mass to 17 or 18 C at least away from cooler northeast counties. By the following weekend (11-12 June) it could be a bit unsettled by the looks of the current charts.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Saturday was another very hot day in Texas, highs broke 110 F (43 C) in Abilene TX and nearby. A strong low is developing over Utah and western Colorado, and will move northeast. This will bring a lot of rain and thunderstorms to the northern and central plains starting late Sunday, but so far the fronts ahead of the storm are relatively inactive. The west coast is close to normal temperatures under widespread cloud. Otherwise, the eastern half of the U.S. and southern Ontario are all quite warm and humid with isolated storms, and the Memorial Day weekend underway in the states has generally good weather so far. Any chance for severe storms later Sunday seems likely to be near the Wyoming-Nebraska borders.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday 28th was a cloudy day with some sunny breaks, no rain, and highs near 16 C.

M.T. Cranium · 30-05-2011 06:41AM

Monday, 30 May, 2011
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TODAY ... Partly cloudy to start, rather chilly for late May, a few widely scattered showers or thundershowers later, brief in duration but capable of dropping 5-10 mms rain locally ... winds westerly at about 15 mph on average ... highs only 11-14 C from north to south. About 6-8 hours of sunshine in most places.

TONIGHT ... Further showers, rather heavy at times in far north, but otherwise only 1-3 mms rain, winds somewhat stronger especially northern counties, from WSW at 15-30 mph ... lows 6-8 C.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud once the morning showers depart, and somewhat warmer in a southwest wind of 15-30 mph ... coastal drizzle or fog south and west with this fog becoming thick during afternoon and evening ... highs 14 to 18 C northwest to southeast.

WEDNESDAY ... Aside from coastal fog and drizzle mostly within a few kms of outer south, west and north coasts, the day should steadily improve with warmer air arriving and winds abating especially inland south ... lows around 10 C and highs around 19 C inland.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY ... Sunny days and clear nights inland, some low cloud and fog possible near coasts but only weak sea breezes ... warm, highs reaching 19-23 C inland and west ... morning lows around 8 C.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY ... Little change although a northeast breeze will develop and cause sea breezes to cool some areas near the east coast and north Ulster. So, remaining sunny and quite warm in most places, but possibly rather hazy and even foggy near east coast. Highs generally 18-22 C but could be held down to 14-17 C near east coast.

MONDAY ... There may be an interruption in the warm, dry spell according to some guidance, as stronger northeast winds develop and push the warmer air back into the southwest counties. The rest of the country could then become cooler with variable cloud. It's still a week off and this indication could fade out of the forecast with any luck. The further outlook would at this point be a return to more seasonable but generally dry weather in a slack northerly flow with small weak features giving a constant variety of wind directions and setting up a few isolated showers.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Sunday (29th) was another hot, dry day across the southwest, Texas, Oklahoma and most of Kansas. Low pressure moving into Wyoming has spread a lot of cloud into states further north, and rain will break out today. A few severe storms are expected in Nebraska and Kansas. Further east, most places hot and humid (28-32 C), with a cluster of heavy storms moving through the lower Great Lakes, some wind damage earlier in southern Michigan. A somewhat cooler air mass covers the upper Great Lakes and most of central Canada (highs 20-24 C in this one).

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Hazy sunshine with a high near 18 C, but it became cloudy and rather chilly this evening with a weak front moving southwest and a few showers on radar just to the east of here now.

M.T. Cranium · 31-05-2011 07:18AM

Tuesday, 31 May, 2011
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TODAY ... A few morning showers mainly in western counties, then variable cloud, a bit warmer, with moderate SW winds. Connacht may see some light rain late afternoon and evening. Highs 14 to 17 C from north to south. About 2 to 5 mms of rain in some western counties, trace to 2 mms east. Sunshine about 5-7 hours on average, but dimmed by higher cloud.

TONIGHT ... Showers mainly north, drizzle near west coast and some fog developing, milder than previous nights, lows 7-10 C. Moderate SW winds.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with hazy sunshine at times, although low cloud, fog and drizzle may be more prevalent near west coast and outer south coast. Moderate SW winds, highs 15-19 C from north to south.

THURSDAY, FRIDAY ... Most places sunny and warm, with light winds. Some coastal areas cooler with sea breezes and local fog banks mostly offshore but could drift inland on outer coasts. Highs generally 19-23 C, warmest inland west and south, but a few places near 15 C due to sea breezes. Morning lows each day 7-10 C.

SATURDAY ... Continuing partly cloudy to sunny and warm in west and south, but north and east, at least near coasts, will become a bit cooler due to a stronger northeast breeze 10-20 mph. This may also bring some low cloud and fog inland. But otherwise, many places especially in the west and south should reach 20-23 C again, with 15-19 C north and east.

SUNDAY-MONDAY ... Slight changes will develop as the northeast breeze continues but with somewhat cooler air mixing in, but even so, many places in the west and south should remain dry, see at least some sunshine, and reach highs of 17-21 C. The north and east will see more extensive marine layer or sea breeze cooling with local fog and low cloud near the coasts, in particular north of Dublin and in north Ulster. This will hold temperatures down to about 14-17 C there. A few showers may develop in the north later Monday too.

OUTLOOK ... Showery in the north but remaining generally dry central and south next week, temperatures returning to more seasonable values almost everywhere, with highs 15-18 C. Those interested in the following weekend (11-12 June), keep your fingers crossed, the models really have no strong signals but have from time to time been suggesting a cooler northerly flow. This may be only a subtle change in a generally dry pattern though.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Monday (which was Memorial Day in the U.S.) had widespread heat and humidity central and eastern states, with a cold front slicing through the eastern Dakotas and central Nebraska bringing some tornadic thunderstorms -- damage reports are not too severe so far. Heavy rain has moved into Manitoba from North Dakota, and will spread into Minnesota and northwestern Ontario today. Further west, it has been rather cool and cloudy in many places except that the desert southwest remains rather hot and dry.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy with a few morning showers, sunny intervals Monday afternoon, cool ... highs near 15 C.

M.T. Cranium · 01-06-2011 06:58AM

Wednesday, 1 June, 2011
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Hey, I've been at this two years now, who's more surprised, the readers or the writer? Anyway, thanks for looking in and many kind messages.

TODAY ... Hazy sunshine developing across the south, more cloud north although with some breaks developing, just a few lingering showers or patches of drizzle mostly near the outer west coast. Warmer, highs 15-17 C north and 18-20 C south. Winds SW 20-30 mph.

TONIGHT ... Clearing further but extensive mist or low cloud north, fog patches inland (but sunrise is so early now, most won't see the fog) ... lows 10-12 C north, 7-10 C south.

THURSDAY ... Except for some low cloud or fog near outer coasts, warm sunshine in many places and highs 21-24 C away from cooling sea breezes that will be generally quite weak, although capable of dropping temperatures to about 15-17 C.

FRIDAY ... Little change, after a clear night with mist or fog patches in a few spots, lows near 7 C, sunshine, light winds and quite warm away from the east coast in particular due to a slight east wind setting in ... highs 21-24 C except 15-17 C near east and north coast, outer south coast.

SATURDAY ... Turning cooler in Ulster, and possibly north Leinster, due to a weak "back-door" cold front from the northeast and a stronger sea breeze that may also cool Dublin and coastal Wicklow. Cloudy at times with drizzle in these counties, highs 14-16 C. Otherwise, most other parts should remain rather warm, partly cloudy, north to northeast winds 10-20 mph and highs of about 17-21 C warmest in the southwest.

SUNDAY ... Current thinking (of mine) is that the Saturday cooling trend will fizzle out and await a second push of cooler air later Monday, so that Sunday may actually see a slight rebound in temperatures where it turned cooler on Saturday, and otherwise should stay about the same as Saturday further south. So, this would imply cloudy with sunny intervals north, highs 16-19 C and partly cloudy to sunny south, highs 17-21 C. (Morning lows 8-10 C)

MONDAY ... Once again, cooler air will try to push the warm air away and will begin to make further inroads, likely about as far south as Galway to Wicklow allowing areas further southwest to remain rather warm. The northern half to two-thirds of Ireland would then become cloudy with highs near 15 C while the southwest stays partly cloudy with highs 17-20 C. (Morning lows 8-10 C)

Some showers are likely by later Monday and into Monday night especially for Ulster where it could rain fairly steadily at times.

TUESDAY ... Showery and much cooler, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C. Winds northerly 15-30 mph.

OUTLOOK ... Somewhat unsettled mid-week, showery at times, some sunny breaks developing again, a slow return to higher teens for daily highs, and a slight chance of hitting around 20 C briefly before a second cooler spell develops late in the week. This "heat wave" summer being advertised in some quarters may have a brief preview this week but the main performance may be quite delayed from what I can see because of the retrograde nature of this strong high (retrograde = moving west = north winds setting in).

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... The very active front from Monday edged into the Great Lakes region and became less active although still strong enough to set off some marginally severe storms in the Lake Michigan region. Rain moved through Manitoba into northern Ontario followed by strong northwest winds. The plains states got into a refreshingly cooler air mass with highs near 24 C but most of the eastern third of the U.S. baked in record heat near 35 C for DC and 30 C in NYC. The west remains cloudy and cool with outbreaks of light rain, at least north of the deserts which are almost always hot and dry at this time of year.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny intervals this morning, showers at times since then, rather cool again, highs near 16 C. This May has averaged about a degree below normal here.

M.T. Cranium · 01-06-2011 08:51PM

UPDATE _ Wednesday, 8:50 p.m.
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The most recent model output continues to change details for the weekend. There now appears to be somewhat greater chance of showers in Ulster on Sunday and a return to the idea of a progressive cooling trend after Saturday. Monday at present is looking a couple of degrees cooler than previously forecast and showery in most northern and eastern counties.

As I expect these details to continue to change, I would say have a look at the morning forecast to see how the models are updating this situation. I still think the general trend will be more of a dramatic change in the north and east than in the west and south, but all regions will see a decline in temperature from Friday to Monday.

Also being featured on the current models would be a showery and cool period mid-week of next week, and a suggestion that the following weekend may warm up slightly from that with variable cloud and chance of showers in a southeast to east wind flow now.

M.T. Cranium · 02-06-2011 06:39AM

Thursday, 2 June, 2011
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TODAY ... Morning mist or low cloud, sea fog, but gradually clearing in most places to give spells of hazy sunshine and very warm temperatures, highs 21 to 24 C well inland and 18-21 C closer to coasts, 15-17 C on some outer coastal peninsulas where it may stay foggy. Very light winds also. In these situations, some cloud banks can persist where trapped between hills, so your chance of sunshine inland is probably about 70%, with 9 to 12 hours of sunshine fairly common.

TONIGHT ... Clear and mild at first, becoming misty or foggy in some places with banks of sea fog drifting some distance inland in west coastal and north coastal districts. Lows 9-12 C.

FRIDAY ... Almost a repeat performance of today but with more sea fog and low cloud appearing near the east coast and a better chance of warm sunshine close to the west coast especially in the southwest. For places inland the weather will be very similar, and highs will reach 22-25 C in some places. Highs of 16-19 C closer to the coast, with slight northeast winds.

SATURDAY ... Continuing sunny and rather warm in the southwest with highs of 19-21 C there. Partly cloudy and turning a bit cooler in most other regions with some low cloud in coastal Ulster and possibly eastern Leinster at least from Dublin north. Winds increasing to NE 15-25 mph. Highs away from the warmer southwest will be 15-19 C.

SATURDAY NIGHT ... Partly cloudy and reasonably mild, lows 7-9 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud but remaining dry except for some light showers in Ulster and drizzle or fog near north and east coasts. A little cooler again, but still pleasant in parts of the south and west. Highs 16-18 C there, and closer to 14-15 C north and east. Winds northeast 15-25 mph

MONDAY ... Cloudy with some showers developing especially in Connacht but in isolated form elsewhere too. Winds backing around to southeast 10-20 mph, lows of 6-8 C and highs of 14-17 C.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ... A cool, showery interlude with some dry intervals too and a northerly flow although winds at the surface may be more variable. Highs only 13-15 C and rather cold nights 4-7 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Continued rather cool, but mostly dry. Highs 14-17 C.

At present, beyond the next 2-3 days, no signs of unusual warmth and by mid-month despite this upcoming spell, most of Ireland may be running close to average for June.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... On Wednesday, a line of severe storms hit parts of New England with some weak tornado activity reported. Kansas and Colorado also had some severe storms. Otherwise, hot and dry in the south, pleasantly warm and dry from plains states to Great Lakes, and cloudy and cool in the far west.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Some sunny intervals, some long cloudy periods, thunder during the afternoon although the rain from that storm missed my location. Light rain all evening. Chilly, highs only about 14 C.

M.T. Cranium · 03-06-2011 06:39AM

Friday, 3 June, 2011
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TODAY ... Mostly sunny and very warm, hazy but foggy near some east and north facing coasts. Light northeast winds, except 10-15 mph near east coast. Highs generally 21-25 C but 16-19 C close to the east coast and outer north coast. For the Dublin region, it should be a sunny day in most places but don't be surprised if you find fog drifting inland a few city blocks from the seafront, and there it could be a lot cooler (16 C) than in most of the city (20-22 C). The warmest places in Ireland today are likely to be the inland south, west and while there could be fog banks over the Atlantic too, these might be held offshore by the weak easterly winds. One or two places on the outer south coast could also see fog.

TONIGHT ... Generally clear but hazy, then becoming misty or foggy especially in north and east. Lows about 8 to 11 C.

SATURDAY ... With increasing northeast breezes 15-25 mph, much of Ulster and north Leinster will see lower temperatures and some low cloud or fog, with drizzle near coasts. Highs will reach 15-18 C there. Further south and west, it will only turn slightly cooler in a mixture of cloud and sunshine, with highs 18-21.

By late Saturday, some steady rain is possible in Ulster moving down from western Scotland.

SATURDAY NIGHT ... Cloudy with a few outbreaks of light rain mostly in northern counties, moderate northeast winds, lows near 8 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud with some showers or outbreaks of rain spreading mainly down the west coast from Connacht towards west Munster. Winds easterly 10-20 mph, although stronger at times near coasts, but some eastern counties may have a few brighter intervals with limited sunshine. Highs about 14-16 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with outbreaks of light rain mostly in the western counties, winds east 10-20 mph, lows near 7 C and highs 14-16 C.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy, periods of rain, possibly becoming rather heavy at times, as winds remain east 15-25 mph, lows near 7 C and highs only 12-15 C. It may be as cold as 10 C daytime in parts of Ulster and over in northern Scotland there could be snow on hills in this modified arctic flow coming down from the north.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... This wet, chilly pattern may hang around but the longer it does, the more likely it becomes that a somewhat milder southeast flow will push in and replace the colder air with an air mass near 15-17 C and this could turn the rain more thundery at times. Eventually this almost stationary low should drift off to the south and allow a gradual improving trend, possibly around next weekend. This would probably allow temperatures to recover slightly. But the following week should see a return to more "mobile" westerly weather patterns and it should reach 17-20 C at times.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Hot and dry in the central states, with a few non-severe storms spreading out from the high plains. Cool and wet in the northwest states and B.C.-Alberta. Seasonably warm and dry in most of the Great Lakes and northeast U.S., with yesterday's strong storms off into eastern Canada.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Rain off and on all day, 14-15 C. About 20 mms of rain has fallen so far.

M.T. Cranium · 04-06-2011 07:42AM

Saturday, 4 June, 2011
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TODAY ... A few sunny intervals mainly in the south but widespread cloud, although continuing rather warm inland, west and south coasts. Highs about 17-21 C with winds NNE 10-20 mph in this half of the country. From north Connacht through all of Ulster and around to northeast Leinster, noticeably cooler than yesterday with extensive low cloud, sea fog and drizzle near coasts. Highs 12-16 C in this zone. Winds NE 15-25 mph, quite chilly near outer coasts where fog could be dense at times. Dublin may be somewhat transitional with a mild start lasting to about mid-day with the sea breeze making larger inroads then the air mass change delivering the more permanent change, so would look for about 17-18 C mid-day as the high.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, drizzle may turn to steady light rain in some parts of Ulster and Leinster, also near the northwest coast, but could stay dry in some southern districts, lows 6-9 C.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy, outbreaks of light rain (2-5 mms) likely to cover the eastern half of the country at times, but more isolated showers further west with some brighter intervals, winds rather variable as weak lows form off the northwest and southeast coasts. Highs about 15 C on average, could be held down to 12 C in coastal fog but could rise to 17 C in a few brighter areas inland south and west.

MONDAY ... After a rather chilly overnight low of 5-7 C in cloud and drizzle, the day will be mostly cloudy but could see a few brighter intervals, as the northern low gradually expands to dominate with showers and periods of light rain developing in a generally northwest flow off the Atlantic, but still rather variable winds, highs 13-16 C.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ... Showery, some prolonged periods of rain in north, light winds near drifting low moving inland north, stalling and then drifting back to northeast. This will promote light westerly winds across south where it could be more variable, leading to showers becoming thundery in a few places. Quite chilly especially in the north, highs only 10-13 C there, about 13 to 15 C south. Morning lows around 5-7 C unless there is any extensive clearing in one or two spots, then it could be near ground frost (air temp about 2 C) in those locations.

THURSDAY to SUNDAY ... This period will see the extensive cloud shield and moisture from the slow-moving disturbance gradually breaking up so while the changes from day to day will be slight, a very slow improvement is probable and temperatures should recover somewhat just because of the increased brightness and some sunshine, to reach about 15-17 C by the weekend. The average minimum is likely to be 5-8 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Further showers or rain are suggested around Monday 13th as warmer air pushes back in, then a somewhat warmer week is likely with potential for temperatures to return to the 20-22 C range eventually. The pattern looks capable of transitioning to near heat wave conditions by about the 20th or so.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Hot and dry air mass over the central and southern plains but extensive although non-severe showers and storms in the high plains. Further west, hot and dry in parts of the southwest, but unusually cool and showery in central and northern California. The northwest states and B.C. have cleared out with fairly warm temperatures developing. Inland western Canada and northern plains extensive rain and mountain snow. Great Lakes, northeast warm and dry.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday 3rd was cloudy to start, partly cloudy by early afternoon and clear by evening, with a high of about 18 C.

lucernarian · 04-06-2011 11:39PM

I just want to add that the NAE and GFS models are both pointing to some heavy and prolonged falls of rain throughout tomorrow (Sunday) in Ulster and north Leinster and also for the first part of Monday to a lesser extent. The Met Office has also issued a "Be aware" warning for NI with predictions of 1 to 2 inches of rain and the warning is valid for over 24 hours. The warning was only issued this evening.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ni/ni_forecast_warnings.html

The NAE model has been flagging this throughout today and GFS has given similar support at a slightly later stage.

The pressure charts look remarkably innocuous though on first glance. Perhaps there's a small convergence zone at play here though the Met Office charts haven't specifically marked this.

M.T. Cranium · 05-06-2011 06:41AM

Sunday, 5 June, 2011
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TODAY ... Cloudy with outbreaks of light rain mostly in north and east, turning to a steady downpour in eastern Ulster and some parts of north Leinster. Amounts 10-20 mms there, 5-10 mms west Ulster, north Connacht and some other parts of Leinster, and trace to 5 mms in counties from Galway south to include most of Munster and south Leinster. A few brighter intervals in the south later could allow highs to reach 16-17 C but in most other places, only 12-14 C. Winds rather light from a generally northwest direction trending more to north or northeast in coastal Leinster. Some mist or fog near coasts especially northwest and northeast counties.

TONIGHT ... Further 5-15 mms rain in east Ulster, trending to dry elsewhere and chilly in a northwest flow 10-20 mph, lows 6-8 C.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, a few more showers developing mostly in Connacht and west Ulster, then spreading late in the day further south. Some bursts of heavier rain across the north and potential for 10-20 mms. Highs will range from 12 C north to 17 C south coast.

Despite the rain in the forecast, we should note that some southern districts could remain largely dry for most of the remainder of the weekend and so I would not be too pessimistic about conditions for outdoor events in some of these counties (this would apply mainly to Munster).

TUESDAY ... Outbreaks of moderate or heavy rain in northern half of Ireland, light to moderate showers some thundery in southern counties, lows near 6 C and highs near 15 C (12 C north).

WEDNESDAY ... Further heavy showers, rather chilly, and possible thundershowers, then variable cloud with lows near 5 C and highs near 14 C.

THURSDAY to SUNDAY ... The unsettled weather will continue but with a slight improving trend that will allow temperatures to drift upward to near normal values. Highs then should climb from about 15 C to near 20 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Continuing a slow warming trend all of the following week with some showery intervals but more sunshine than this coming week.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Saturday was hot and dry in most central states, a few thunderstorms mostly brief and non-severe, but a band of heavy storms moving through the Ohio valley towards Washington DC overnight and spreading further north on Sunday. Rather showery in California and sunny further north with warmer temperatures.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny, high of about 23 C on Saturday.

M.T. Cranium · 05-06-2011 08:31PM

UPDATE _ Sunday, 8:30 p.m.
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The south has fared considerably better than the north today, and this trend will continue. One slow-moving upper-level disturbance is presently located over Ulster and will drift off towards Scotland on Monday. A second very chilly upper level low that is phasing with surface low pressure near Iceland today will drift southeast and arrive over Donegal Bay late Monday night, taking most of Tuesday and Wednesday to cross the north. While today's rain gradually tapers off to drizzle across the north tonight and a few breaks appear in the cloud cover mid-day Monday, this second disturbance will bring heavy rain, very chilly temperatures and even the risk of sleet or snow at higher elevations. Some of this unsettled weather will spread into central and parts of southern counties by Tuesday, but Donegal, Mayo and nearby counties appear likely to get the worst of it. Temperatures may be held as low as 5-8 C at times on Tuesday, and hills above 500m have the risk of snow or sleet with temperatures of 2-4 C. There may be some risks to safety of livestock on higher terrain, and it would definitely not be a good time to be camping or climbing with conditions no better than mid-January on average. The worst of this second round will last from early Tuesday to early Thursday.

As always, the impacts on Dublin and most of the south will be much less dramatic but I think that everyone will feel the chill at some point as this unusual weather pattern comes and goes. The eventual end game for this slow moving storm seems to be a leisurely return to base as the low starts to head north and then west later in the week. This will keep Ireland in a rather chilly westerly flow but as the clouds lift and break somewhat, temperatures should struggle back to the mid-teens.

More details in the morning forecast.

M.T. Cranium · 06-06-2011 06:38AM

Monday, 6 June, 2011
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TODAY ... Rain or drizzle will edge slowly east to cover most of the western third of the country, but further east, sunny intervals with extensive cloud developing around mid-day. Highs only 9-12 C west, 13-15 C east. The western rainfall amounts by evening should be about 5 mms.

TONIGHT ... Very chilly with rain, drizzle and fog covering most of the north and west, showers developing in the southeast. Rainfall amounts 10-15 mms except 2-5 mms southeast. Lows reaching 5 C and winds rather light in the north, W-NW 15-25 mph across the south. Conditions from tonight through Thursday will resemble almost wintry weather, it could become uncomfortable or even dangerous for those exposed to the elements for long intervals.

TUESDAY ... Rain and unseasonably cold for most, with the risk of sleet or snow developing on northern hills especially above 500m. Highs 8-10 C at low elevations and 4-7 C at higher elevations. The south will have variable cloud and frequent showers with some hail and thunder, with westerly winds 10-20 mph, highs 12-15 C.

Rainfall amounts of 20-30 mms possible in most areas but more variable in the south where some places could escape with only 5 mms or so.

WEDNESDAY ... The cold rain with high elevation sleet will slowly push east becoming more confined to eastern Ulster but it will remain showery in the wake of the steady rain, and showers or thundershowers in the south. Morning lows of 3-7 C and afternoon highs of 8-13 C will be close to record low values. A further 10-30 mms of rain possible.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Continued very cool and unsettled ... rainfall will become showery in all regions, with hail and thunder quite frequent in the showers. Lows 3-7 C and highs 12-15 C. Winds generally WNW 15-30 mph.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... The very gradual improvement should continue, but temperatures will struggle to reach 16 C by Sunday. Showers should become less frequent at least. Rain then warmer by Monday, and turning quite warm early in the week, then slightly cooler again mid-week.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... The basic theme is that temperatures are not too far from normal values in most regions. The heat in the central plains has lost some of its edge, and air masses further north are only a bit cooler now. The heaviest thunderstorms on offer at present are in the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Scattered showers are widespread in California and western Nevada, but it remains sunny and warm further north on the west coast.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... We enjoyed a sunny, rather warm Sunday with highs near 22 C. Monday is expected to see increasing cloud and similar temperatures, then rain on Tuesday.

M.T. Cranium · 07-06-2011 07:13AM

Tuesday, 7 June, 2011
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy and unseasonably cool with periods of rain, as well as some hail showers that could become thundery in southern counties. Rather light winds (due to proximity of low) in northern counties, but breezy to windy at times further south, WNW 20-35 mph, adding more chill. Highs may reach 10-13 C especially where skies break briefly, but at other times temperatures could be in the 7-9 C range, very close to record low values for daytime at this time of year. Rainfalls 10-30 mms, rather variable due to showery nature of the rain, probably heavier in west than east generally.

TONIGHT ... Rain continuing, with 10-20 mms further accumulations, very cool with lows 3-7 C. A band of sleety showers is likely to push through Donegal into parts of north Connacht and west Ulster and snow could accumulate on higher ground. Further south, the showers may become rather light after midnight with widespread fog or mist.

WEDNESDAY ... Further rain that may mix with sleet or snow over higher parts of the north, while the central and southern counties see intermittent showers with some hail and thunder, gusty WNW winds 20-35 mph, and highs that will only reach 7-9 C in north and 10-13 C south. Rainfalls of 10-20 mms possible.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY ... Little change except that the northern counties will get out of the steady rain and into the same showery conditions that had prevailed earlier in the south. Lows near 4 C and highs near 13 C, with gusty W-NW winds 20-40 mph. There may be some very heavy hail showers especially in western counties.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Saturday may give a slight improvement with partly cloudy skies and highs 15-16 C, then rain is likely to push in by early Sunday from the southwest as part of a general warming trend. The following week should be closer to mid-June average temperatures, reaching 17-20 C at times.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... The heaviest storms overnight will probably be in Montana and North Dakota, but later today North Dakota and Minnesota will be under a widespread severe storm alert. Heavy rain will spread further north to drench parts of the Canadian prairies. Showers will extend back across the Rockies to the B.C. and Washington coasts. The southwest has cleared up and turned warmer, with the heat rebuilding in the south central states. The east coast will see rather cool temperatures north of about PHL and warm but humid weather further south.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Monday was another sunny day with just a slight increase in cloud to sunset, but it will cloud over tonight here and become showery on Tuesday. The high Monday was 24 C.

M.T. Cranium · 08-06-2011 06:41AM

Wednesday, 8 June, 2011
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Three more days of this cool, unsettled weather, then a slight break on Saturday before more rain on Sunday ... but beyond that the outlook improves as the jet stream lifts away from Ireland during next week, which should allow temperatures to return to normal mid-June values.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with widespread showers developing, heaviest across central and eastern counties. Once again, some thunder will accompany hail in these showers. The rain may be somewhat lighter in parts of the south, but amounts will generally be 5-15 mms today. There is a slight chance of sleet or snow falling on highest elevations especially in Ulster and Connacht. Winds generally NW 15-30 mph but 20-45 mph in exposed locations from about Galway Bay south and east to about Wexford. Highs will reach 12-15 C for most but could be held to 10 C in the north.

TONIGHT ... Further showers, but these becoming lighter and less frequent, with mist or fog developing, very cool with lows 3-7 C. Slight ground frost could develop any place that skies clear for an hour or more. Average rainfalls about 3-5 mms.

THURSDAY ... Continued breezy to windy and very cool for time of year, with widespread hail- and thunder- showers. Winds generally WNW 20-40 mph, rainfalls 5-10 mms. Highs 12-14 C with potential for lower mid-day temperatures near strong showers. (the air aloft will be exceptionally cool)

FRIDAY ... Little change from Thursday, with lows near 4 C and highs near 13 or 14 C, showers with some hail, breezy.

SATURDAY ... Some dry intervals developing at least away from the north which may remain cloudy and drizzly. Some sunshine likely for Munster and south Leinster. Morning lows could be in the 2-6 C range and highs about 14 to 16 C except 11-13 C north.

SUNDAY ... Rain and fog developing, strong southeast winds veering more to southwest. Lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

OUTLOOK ... Monday will be cool and showery, but the rest of the week may bring some improving weather with the average high likely to be 17 to 19 C.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... On Tuesday, some unusual heat moved north into Minnesota and Wisconsin with the "twin cities" over 100 F which is rare this early in summer. A weak cold front brought scattered thunderstorms to North Dakota and one or two of these became severe. Widespread heavy rains across the northern parts of ND and Montana into the Canadian southern prairies, and showers into southern B.C. ... mainly dry and hot or at least very warm in most other eastern and southern states. Today the cold front will move rapidly through Minnesota into Wisconsin and Iowa where some severe storms are possible.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy, isolated showers but no accumulation at my location, sunny breaks lasting a few minutes but clearing by evening, highs around 17 C in a slight northerly flow.

M.T. Cranium · 09-06-2011 07:43AM

Thursday, 9 June, 2011
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TODAY ... Continued breezy and very cool for time of year, some dry intervals with brief sunny breaks to start in the east, but cloudy west, with widespread hail- and thunder- showers likely to spread in from the Atlantic fairly soon. Winds generally WNW 15-30 mph, rainfalls 5-10 mms. Highs 12-14 C with potential for lower mid-day temperatures near strong showers. (the air aloft will be exceptionally cool) ... some prolonged showers may merge into periods of rain central counties mid-day.

TONIGHT ... Showers becoming less frequent and some clear intervals, quite chilly, lows 2-5 C, some frost in a few inland locations.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud with hail showers at times, cool, highs near 13 C, rainfalls 5-10 mms.

SATURDAY ... Some dry intervals developing at least away from the north which may remain cloudy and drizzly. A few showers at times near the west coast also. Some sunshine likely for Munster and south Leinster. Morning lows could be in the 2-6 C range and highs about 14 to 16 C except 11-13 C north.

SUNDAY ... Rain and fog developing from early morning, southeast winds 15-30 mph veering more to southwest. Lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C. Potential rainfalls 20-30 mms.

OUTLOOK ... Monday will be cool and showery, but the rest of the week may bring some improving weather with the average high likely to be 17 to 19 C.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Wednesday brought some severe storms to southern Ontario and states between Michigan and Iowa, as a cold front slowly advanced into very hot and humid air, while further south, highs reached 32-35 C. This front will make gradual progress south today to reach about New York to the Ohio valley, and the air mass replacing it will be considerably cooler. Cool and dry northern plains states, hot and dry southern plains. Variable cloud across the west.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... A rather bland day here on Wednesday, cloud all morning, sunny breaks in the afternoon, cool with highs near 17 C.

M.T. Cranium · 10-06-2011 06:37AM

Friday, 10 June, 2011
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The hits just keep on coming ...

TODAY ... Unseasonably cool with showers spreading across the south, some dry intervals north central counties at first, although limited sunshine, then more rain (and possibly sleet at high elevations) spreading into the northwest mid-day and across Ulster by afternoon and evening. Winds relatively moderate (mostly W 15-25 mph) and highs 10-13 C.

TONIGHT ... Some lingering rain or drizzle in the north, dry elsewhere with some breaks in the overcast, lows 3-6 C. Any longer breaks in the cloud could lead to scattered ground frost again.

SATURDAY ... A brief but welcome break from the gloomy weather may coincide with the daylight hours on Saturday, with some sunshine across the southern half of Ireland and at least dry if cloudy conditions further north. Not too windy either, with highs a bit closer to average at 14-16 C.

SATURDAY NIGHT ... Rain spreading in from the southwest, strong E to SE winds developing, 10-20 mms rain, lows near 7 C.

SUNDAY ... Intervals of rain, moderate or heavy, becoming thundery in parts of the southeast, 20-30 mms potential, foggy especially over northern hills, but some brief clearing late in the day southwest ... highs 12-14 C.

MONDAY ... Becoming rather windy in Connacht and west Munster during the morning, WSW veering WNW 30-50 mph, showers moving east through the morning, some clearing later, lows near 6 C and highs 12-14 C.

OUTLOOK ... Slightly milder with highs into the range of 15-17 C but further showers from several frontal systems in a disturbed westerly flow. It may take until past the 20th before we see much of an improvement although there is a faint upward trend now in the temperatures.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Severe storms were widespread in New England and west of Chicago into Iowa, with the hot, humid air now suppressed south of the Great Lakes. Cooler, drier air was slowly pushing south into Ontario and Michigan, and Wisconsin from a sprawling high further north. Widespread cloud and some showers or storms over the Rockies north of about Denver, hot and dry south of there and east into the plains states.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... A rather bland day here on Thursday with cloud, light winds, and a high of about 17 C.

M.T. Cranium · 10-06-2011 07:26PM

UPDATE _ Friday 10th June, 2011 _ 7:30 p.m.
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ALERT issued for evening thunderstorms with hail in the Dublin city region, these likely to pass from west to east across the city now to 8:30 p.m., some locally heavy falls of hail could lead to poor driving conditions.

Tonight, there may be some longer clear intervals in parts of the inland south or central counties, that could allow for moderate to severe frost to develop especially in valleys and lower elevations with flat terrain, so cover up any tender plants in your gardens if you are in a frost-prone location.

As for the weekend outlook, no real changes to report, basically if you have any outdoor plans and can accomplish them on Saturday rather than Sunday, this would be wise because Sunday is basically looking like a "washout" and perhaps the term "shocker" would apply given the date on the calendar. In other words, a heavy rainfall seems unavoidable, followed by rather strong winds overnight into Monday, and no real warming involved. Saturday on the other hand will be a touch warmer than of late, mainly because more sunshine will manage to get through.

Next week at present is not looking much better than this week, although the source of the air masses will be the rather chilly near Atlantic rather than the very chilly far northern Atlantic, so that may produce a slight upturn; however, getting back to normal mid-June values will require some longer dry intervals with a bit of sunshine at least, so would say that one or two days may achieve this, other days may be back to the 12-14 C range.

I am actually beginning to see the advantages of living so far away. :cool: (as in, don't shoot the messenger) ... but cannot say that the weather here is any great improvement, although it has been dry most of the week, rather chilly here since Tuesday.

M.T. Cranium · 11-06-2011 06:45AM

Saturday, 11 June, 2011
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TODAY ... Cloudy with some drizzle or light showers in west coast counties this morning, while the day starts dry with some bright or even sunny intervals elsewhere. Mid-day clouds should become more broken or scattered for a while, although an isolated shower with a bit of hail or thunder could be found in one or two places, before thicker cloud moves back in from the south towards evening. Rain will then follow on the south coast. Winds today should be light and rather variable, and highs will reach 13-16 C, with 1-3 mms rain at most.

TONIGHT ... Periods of rain, foggy, winds rising to ESE 15-30 mph (20-40 mph south and east coast), lows around 7 C. Rainfalls of 10-20 mms across the south, remaining dry in Ulster and northern parts of Connacht and Leinster until near sunrise.

SUNDAY ... Periods of rain continuing, becoming heavy at times, thundery in some parts of the east and south, potential for 20-35 mms and some spot flooding. Rather chilly due to the brisk winds and rain, but temperatures will edge up towards 12-14 C as the rain ends later. Some clearing in west Munster by late afternoon, but rain continuing elsewhere. Winds veering from SE to SW 15-30 mph with some higher gusts likely near fronts. Models are showing a band of heavy rain spreading northeast across almost all parts of the country from morning in the south to late afternoon northeast. This is also when thunder may develop.

SUNDAY NIGHT ... Becoming quite windy especially in Connacht after midnight as winds become W 20-40 mph. Showers ending gradually, lows 6-8 C.

MONDAY ... Windy in the north, cloudy for much of the day with drizzle or light rain persisting for a while, but gradual clearing further south and not as windy, highs reaching 14 C south, 11 C north.

TUESDAY ... Another rather cold morning likely, lows 2-7 C, then partly cloudy, isolated showers, some sunshine and highs of about 14-16 C, so slightly improved over much of the past week. Rain spreading in again from the southwest late in the day.

OUTLOOK ... Showery and rather cool Wednesday to Friday, highs generally 12-14 C. Following that, some indications of a gradual warming trend, but we were speaking of that in May for several weeks before it finally materialized, so ... let's just hope this one is on time.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... The hot, humid weather has been pushed a bit further south during the day on Friday but will not be fully removed from the northeast U.S. until after the weekend as a frontal wave now west of Chicago moves east along the front and holds it back for another day or so. Heavy rainfalls are likely with a few severe storms near PHL and DCA. The front is now less active further west but still marks a sharp temperature divide with cooler, dry air in the central and northern plains. Showers are moving east across the Canadian prairies, and the weather on the west coast is cloudy but dry.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday was a cloudy day with no rain and a high of about 17 C.

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