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Cold Spell Media Forecasts and Model Output (General Chat)

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    #242
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Im using my mobile so can someone post up latest nae


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    #243
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users Posts: 9,011 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    redsunset wrote: »
    Im using my mobile so can someone post up latest nae

    Tell me where to find it and ill do it !


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    #244
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    redsunset wrote: »
    Im using my mobile so can someone post up latest nae

    10121906_1706.gif

    Low well to the south like the 06Z GFS

    10121906_1706.gif


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    #245
    premiercad
    Registered Users Posts: 352 ✭✭premiercad


    eagle on ray darcy


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    #246
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Thanks maq.if that stay south in next run it don't look good


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    #247
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Eagle did a great job summing up the performance of the models and why there is confusion.

    He indicated a widespread snow event likely over the weekend


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    #248
    homolumo
    Registered Users Posts: 1,080 ✭✭✭homolumo


    oh dear. Am I right in saying that the complexity of this system has been the reason for the difference between model runs?


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    #249
    dave1982
    Registered Users Posts: 4,604 ✭✭✭dave1982


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    Eagle did a great job summing up the performance of the models and why there is confusion.

    He indicated a widespread snow event likely over the weekend


    He had different forecast at half 9 on 96FM light snow shows down south???
    This too confusing:(


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    #250
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Several 06Z GEFS ensemble member show the low in a more favourable way :

    gens-1-1-54.png?6
    gens-6-1-60.png?6
    gens-10-1-54.png?6
    gens-11-1-54.png?6

    etc....


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    #251
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,692 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    did any of you hear Gerard Flemming on the Pat Kenny show?


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    #252
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    homolumo wrote: »
    oh dear. Am I right in saying that the complexity of this system has been the reason for the difference between model runs?

    Yes, its a bit of a nightmare for forecasting.


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    #253
    ciaranm
    Closed Accounts Posts: 289 ✭✭ciaranm


    Wasn't it a similar case yesterday morning, with the charts giving a significant downgrade?
    If we get another upgrade in the afternoon I think it's safe to say that they're hopelessly out of their depth, and forecasting will come down to intuition and experience.


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    #254
    homolumo
    Registered Users Posts: 1,080 ✭✭✭homolumo


    Despite the potential disappointment, I have to say that this is fascinating and has been for the last week or so.


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    #255
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    nacho libre wrote: »
    did any of you hear Gerard Flemming on the Pat Kenny show?

    What did he say Nacho ?


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    #256
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Maq. that system you a re referring to their apears to sit over the SE, S and E for the afternoon before tracking westwards again. This perhaps is what the eagle was referring to


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    #257
    MollyZ
    Registered Users Posts: 166 ✭✭MollyZ


    nacho libre wrote: »
    did any of you hear Gerard Flemming on the Pat Kenny show?

    Yes, I heard him. He said that it was almost impossible to forecast more than four to six hours ahead as they don't know where these low pressure systems will develop. Hope I have that right - I'm not an expert and struggling to understand some of this stuff :)


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    #258
    Happyman42
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,066 ✭✭✭✭Happyman42


    MollyZ wrote: »
    Yes, I heard him. He said that it was almost impossible to forecast more than four to six hours ahead as they don't know where these low pressure systems will develop. Hope I have that right - I'm not an expert and struggling to understand some of this stuff :)

    Yep that's what he said...also said it looks cold up to Christmas Eve and possibly beyond.


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    #259
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    Maq. that system you a re referring to their apears to sit over the SE, S and E for the afternoon before tracking westwards again. This perhaps is what the eagle was referring to

    There is a lot of uncertainty about the lows over the next couple of days. Massive pinch of salt with any model or forecast.

    Sat24.com is your friend. :)


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    #260
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,692 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    ok. i take it no one did so. Gerard Flemming said there would be more widespread snow tonight. He also say he wasn't sure if there would be positive figures for at least six- seven days. He said there were various scenarios that could play out around Christmas. He did say though that it would get milder in the days after Christmas.
    He also summed up the difficulity of trying to forecast what happens over this cold period quite well i thought.


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    #261
    ffarrell7
    Registered Users Posts: 605 ✭✭✭ffarrell7


    dave1982 wrote: »
    He had different forecast at half 9 on 96FM light snow shows down south???
    This too confusing:(

    In case you think I am being anti-Cork here with respect to the lack of snow down there I am not. I am going on my 'fly fishing' holidays to the Googane Barra region next June so if I did not like Cork I would not be holidaying there. However what is very frustrating for Cork people is the fact that it is too far South for much if any snowfall. I think that Cork City may get a few light snow showers tonight but that should be the extent of it. Further North and East I see much greater amounts but not as much as some people are saying.:):):)


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    #262
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,692 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    MollyZ wrote: »
    Yes, I heard him. He said that it was almost impossible to forecast more than four to six hours ahead as they don't know where these low pressure systems will develop. Hope I have that right - I'm not an expert and struggling to understand some of this stuff :)

    sorry didn't see your post before posting mine:o


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    #263
    ciaranm
    Closed Accounts Posts: 289 ✭✭ciaranm


    http://www.belgingur.is/vedurkort/

    Shows a heavy but fairly brief snowfall for dublin tonight.
    It was quite accurate for the last cold spell.


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    #264
    premiercad
    Registered Users Posts: 352 ✭✭premiercad


    LP just off the east Icelandic coast and lots of cloud from the other LP coming in over scotland and NI showers should ramp up as a result


    image.ashx?ok=1&country=scan&type=slide&time=&index=1&sat=ir


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    #265
    Spindle
    Registered Users Posts: 500 ✭✭✭Spindle


    I think it is time to bin the computer models and just use a good old fashioned bit of sticking the head out the window and seeing what is coming over the hill weather forecasting :)

    After all computer models only can model using data that has been collected from previous occurrences of similar weather. When there are to many variables that have not been seen in this part of the world before they can only produce there best effort which might be a good bit off, and when you are trying to pin point weather on a tiny island in the Atlantic a good bit off would mean a huge change in weather.

    Wouldn't it be nice to be a fly on the wall inside Met Eireann now!


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    #266
    mac80
    Closed Accounts Posts: 298 ✭✭mac80


    Looking at Sat24 Would I be correct in assuming there is a band of heavier showers coming from the Northwest around nidday heading towards monaghan/Louth?


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    #267
    premiercad
    Registered Users Posts: 352 ✭✭premiercad


    LP just off the east Icelandic coast and lots of cloud from the other LP coming in over scotland and NI showers should ramp up as a result


    also look at raintoday..showers are definately more intense out off the scotish coast now they will carry further inland than the current convective ones


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    #268
    dacogawa
    Registered Users Posts: 1,838 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    Spindle wrote: »
    Wouldn't it be nice to be a fly on the wall inside Met Eireann now!


    I wouldn't like to be that fly, they would be badgering you for answers "mister fly what the hell is going to happen!"


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    #269
    Brenireland
    Registered Users Posts: 1,363 ✭✭✭Brenireland


    nacho libre wrote: »
    ok. i take it no one did so. Gerard Flemming said there would be more widespread snow tonight. He also say he wasn't sure if there would be positive figures for at least six- seven days. He said there were various scenarios that could play out around Christmas. He did say though that it would get milder in the days after Christmas.
    He also summed up the difficulity of trying to forecast what happens over this cold period quite well i thought.

    why dya ask?lol:D


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    #270
    GoldenGreen
    Registered Users Posts: 213 ✭✭GoldenGreen


    pure white out blizzard in Letterkenny now, never seen the likes of it before


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    #271
    Big Daddy Cool
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,774 ✭✭✭Big Daddy Cool


    Spindle wrote: »
    I think it is time to bin the computer models and just use a good old fashioned bit of sticking the head out the window and seeing what is coming over the hill weather forecasting :)

    agree, just bin all these charts, models, web pages, polar lows, greenland express's, and just put the fire on, sit back, and just keep glancing at the window for updates.


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