Cold Spell Media Forecasts and Model Output (General Chat)

th3 s1aught3r

Calibos wrote: »

150m from my house...



F**K

:rolleyes:

Seriously, does it ever snow at the beach ?

delw

isle of man wrote: »

If things stay as they are.

then the isle of man is right in the fireing line of all that prep going round in circles,

o the joys:D

hope it doesnt make the IOM sink with all that snow,what will we do without the IOM shadow in the future

Calibos

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

Seriously, does it ever snow at the beach ?

Yes, but I'm disgusted it only lasted for two days on the promenade and till the next high tide on the beach proper:D



I am trying to remember whether MT said coastal fringes were marginal for the last snowy spell a few weeks ago. Brays problem last time wasn't marginality, it was gap in streamerality and IOM snow shadowality

fizzycyst

it definately snows on the coast......sometimes this is tramore on December 1st


2010 btw

smellslikeshoes

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

Seriously, does it ever snow at the beach ?

It did here in north Wexford during the last spell. I'm 50 meters from the sea and we had 6 inches here, it even stuck on the sand right down to the water line.

megatron989

Calibos wrote: »

Yes, but I'm disgusted it only lasted for two days on the promenade and till the next high tide on the beach proper:D



I am trying to remember whether MT said coastal fringes were marginal for the last snowy spell a few weeks ago. Brays problem last time wasn't marginality, it was gap in streamerality and IOM snow shadowality

True that, the IOM shadow was totally killing the buzz in bray.
Could have been epic! (Heres a second chance so bring on the
snowmonster!)

lucy2010

Calibos wrote: »

Yes, but I'm disgusted it only lasted for two days on the promenade and till the next high tide on the beach proper:D



I am trying to remember whether MT said coastal fringes were marginal for the last snowy spell a few weeks ago. Brays problem last time wasn't marginality, it was gap in streamerality and IOM snow shadowality

Whats your views on it for this one Calibos? As its coming from the west this time could the mountains take it all ????

Calibos

lucy2010 wrote: »

Whats your views on it for this one Calibos? As its coming from the west this time could the mountains take it all ????

Hard to say. On the last big day of snowfall during the last period with the organised band of precipitation coming from the west we saw the band split in the middle as it crossed the midlands with the gap opening up crossing South Dublin and North Wicklow. However then the southern portion of the band which was trailing about 2 hours behind the Northern portion started to turn NE towards us in Bray. This was the last hope for a topup for Bray. Alas it petered out over the Wicklow Mountains.

I'd say any precipitation coming from the W or SW if its no more intense than that last organised band I mentioned woulc probably indeed be soaked up by the Wicklow Mountains. However if the Snow forecast for the weekend is more intense and/or its coming from the NW (ie. only has to cross the low dublin foothills to get to us) then we should get something out of it.

Musicman2000

GFS OOZ run just on the way out, that low sunday night is still on the same route not much change from the 18z run

M.T. Cranium

True but cold air remains a bit firmer in place while the low crosses south-central England, and there is less chance of mixing rain with the snow in southeast Ireland. It looks like a good start, awaiting some other model output for comparison. Then the system for the 23rd is held further south without the warming trend on the 18z, looking now at 25th, the usual GFS lurch back to default warming is apparent but even on these suspect charts the temperatures would stay around freezing to mid-day 25th or longer.

By now, I think we've all gotten used to the day 8 GFS warming trend that has failed about 70% of the time since mid-November and resulted in a mean error of about 15 dam (equivalent to 3-5 deg of latitude in track errors).

Will comment further in a while on the other models. But this GFS run is nearly perfect from my point of view, if you want prolonged cold and a major snowfall over the weekend. It's the old risk-reward problem, move the low too far away to eliminate all chance of mixing, and there can't be as much snow. Move the low closer for even more precip, and there's too much risk of mixing. The perfect track for this thermal gradient is just about what's shown on 00z GFS, and quite an intense low given the synoptics.

I also find the Friday night situation less subject to mixing or downgrade potential, just a straightforward intensification of surface cold feeding in from what's likely to be a frigid southwest Scotland.

Perhaps Ireland and the U.K. are the new Svalbard and the PV will settle in.

M.T. Cranium

UKMO and GME models appear quite favourable to cold and snowfall dominant outcomes.

ECM (Euro) has a rather suppressed look, maintains cold and is somewhat less snow-friendly due to less development.

Forecast will be based on blend with research model parameters guiding intensity. Could be quite the four day period for snow.

ninebeanrows

Morning runs have totally diminished the risk of widespread snow today and tonight.

The low is barely a feature on the runs.

A terrible downgrade.

GFS and UKM actually totally have got rid of it, not even a drop due in the east and not much anywhere barring the west and north.

Musicman2000

Weathercheck wrote: »

Morning runs have totally diminished the risk of widespread snow today and tonight.

The low is barely a feature on the runs.

A terrible downgrade.

GFS and UKM actually totally have got rid of it, not even a drop due in the east and not much anywhere barring the west and north.

Not according to MT'S update

ninebeanrows

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Not according to MT'S update

Well with all due respect to MT i have looked at every single model run and they have no more than 1-2mm of precipitation in Leinster from today through until Saturday afternoon/ evening.

So i would love to know where he is getting his data from or whether it is just guesswork and his estimation of how things will play out in the nowcast. Hope he is right.

The they throw up that small low feature that in yesterdays runs was intense but less intense today and going by the downgrade of todays low could be even less intense if the trend follows.

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote: »

Morning runs have totally diminished the risk of widespread snow today and tonight.

The low is barely a feature on the runs.

A terrible downgrade.

GFS and UKM actually totally have got rid of it, not even a drop due in the east and not much anywhere barring the west and north.

This link explains mt's thinking and the reason for this mornings optimistic forecast by him.
It seems logical to me given the woefull performance of models at the moment in what is usually the reliable sub 96hr time frame.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/66823-model-thread-discussion-thursdays-output/page__view__findpost__p__1975427I'm surprised you're getting into the act of getting depressed based on one run,you know better than that given their current confusion

ninebeanrows

Deleted User wrote: »

This link explains mt's thinking and the reason for this mornings optimistic forecast by him.
It seems logical to me given the woefull performance of models at the moment in what is usually the reliable sub 96hr time frame.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/66823-model-thread-discussion-thursdays-output/page__view__findpost__p__1975427I'm surprised you're getting into the act of getting depressed based on one run,you know better than that given their current confusion

What ya mean though? I am talking about tonights and tomorrow snow that has totally disappeared from Model Outputs?

That discusses the risk on Sunday.

MT is still forecasting 15cm of snow for Dublin up until the end of Saturday.

DOCARCH

ME are on MTs side at present:

Bitterly cold today, with.....showers mainly in Ulster, Connacht and west Munster during the day, but becoming more widespread this evening, with a risk of prolonged falls in many areas.

We'll see. This was reiterated in ME forecast just before 8 on Radio 1.

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote: »

What ya mean though? I am talking about tonights and tomorrow snow that has totally disappeared from Model Outputs?

That discusses the risk on Sunday.

MT is still forecasting 15cm of snow for Dublin up until the end of Saturday.

what I mean is all output is suspect and for the first time ever since you and I have been posting on this forum,we're relying on forecaster intuition -so lets think laterally and apply some of our own,we need to now

ninebeanrows

DOCARCH wrote: »

ME are on MTs side at present:

Bitterly cold today, with.....showers mainly in Ulster, Connacht and west Munster during the day, but becoming more widespread this evening, with a risk of prolonged falls in many areas.

We'll see. This was reiterated in ME forecast just before 8 on Radio 1.

How do you mean side?

I wish for snow more than the next man but i am going by what output has been put in front of me! And it spells no snow upto 2cm for the Leinster region.

Obviously this will be an interesting nowcast situation and hopefully the satellite explodes with life later but it doesn't get away from the fact that the models have shown an absolute downgrade in last 12 hours and don't really show this low getting to much.

Monkaa

Upgrade, downgrade, upgrade, downgrade!!!!! Who do you listen to! So annoying...Think ill just wait and hope the for best/worst :rolleyes:

91011

Monkaa wrote: »

Upgrade, downgrade, upgrade, downgrade!!!!! Who do you listen to! So annoying...Think ill just wait and hope the for best/worst :rolleyes:

Every forecast service has been saying that even a slight change in wind dircetion could dramatically change the weather.

At 5.30am BBC forecast a huge snowfall over Ireland for tonight & all day tomorrow. At 6.00am this had disapered - I had to stay at home to wait til I saw it again to be absolutely sure I wasn't missing something.

Met eireann have also downgraded and are say snow showers, but no longer saying widespread snow. they are also now saying mainly dry from tomorow onwards.

roryc1

Weathercheck wrote: »

How do you mean side?

I wish for snow more than the next man but i am going by what output has been put in front of me! And it spells no snow upto 2cm for the Leinster region.

Obviously this will be an interesting nowcast situation and hopefully the satellite explodes with life later but it doesn't get away from the fact that the models have shown an absolute downgrade in last 12 hours and don't really show this low getting to much.

WC, I was thinking the same this morning looking at the models, and still have my concerns, but the models have been all over the place the last few days and I have given up on them, I think its now all down to satellite and radar watching regarding today and tmrw

DOCARCH

Weathercheck wrote: »

How do you mean side?

I mean forecasting more widespread snow for later today/tonight than the current models would indicate.

Nice looking area of cloud to the NW of Scotland atm - wonder will that come this way and have an impact? http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=gb&sat=ir&type=loop

BTW, I see light rain being reported at Castlederg at 0700 at -1c. Has the warmer atlantic air entered the mix now as well?

ninebeanrows

DOCARCH wrote: »

I mean forecasting more widespread snow for later today/tonight than the current models would indicate.

Nice looking area of cloud to the NW of Scotland atm - wonder will that come this way and have an impact? http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=gb&sat=ir&type=loop

The honesty of it all is nobody has a clue!

irish1967

DOCARCH wrote: »

I mean forecasting more widespread snow for later today/tonight than the current models would indicate.

Nice looking area of cloud to the NW of Scotland atm - wonder will that come this way and have an impact? http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=gb&sat=ir&type=loop

Yeah was just watching that NW Scotland clump. Hard to figure its exact track yet.

ninebeanrows

DOCARCH wrote: »

I mean forecasting more widespread snow for later today/tonight than the current models would indicate.

Nice looking area of cloud to the NW of Scotland atm - wonder will that come this way and have an impact? http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=gb&sat=ir&type=loop

We'd need to be seeing the development of something by mid afternoon to our northwest for the potential that this has upgraded.

Remember the if this is not organised into bands and a system the clouds will hit land and not much will make it past the Midlands

DOCARCH

Weathercheck wrote: »

The honesty of it all is nobody has a clue!

Amen to that! Flip flop.

irish1967

Weathercheck wrote: »

The honesty of it all is nobody has a clue!

I,for one (even as a snow lover) appreciate an alternative view of things... with greatest respect for all experts on here to rely on just one view brings us back to the ME only days. As you say... its a wait and see.

DOCARCH

DOCARCH wrote: »

BTW, I see light rain being reported at Castlederg at 0700 at -1c. Has the warmer atlantic air entered the mix now as well?

un manned You can take it,thats not rain anyway,that far inland.

maquiladora

0Z GFS would be heavy snow and blizzard conditions at times to areas from the south to the southeast on Sunday morning.