Cold Spell Media Forecasts and Model Output (General Chat)

Musicman2000

maquiladora wrote: »

0Z GFS would be heavy snow and blizzard conditions at times to areas from the south to the southeast on Sunday morning.

according to the ukmo that low is going to drop down the english channel wont come near us

JanuarySnowstor

I have to agree with Matty here.
Look guys, i'm 36 and over all the years it's prven impossible to predict snow in this country. More often than not it will remain dry or fall as rain.
While I love MT's forecasts and hope he is right, it is my firm opinion that if MT lived in this country for as mnay years he would understand that we rarely rarely get snow.

By the way I thought Met Eireann's forecast this morning was shocking, more or less snow for everywhere

maquiladora

Musicman2000 wrote: »

according to the ukmo that low is going to drop down the english channel wont come near us

The models are changing on every run. Expect more changes on the UKMO and GFS before we get there.

I'm only commenting on what the GFS is showing at the moment.

06Z run starting soon. Should be interesting.

Edit :

Actually here is the 0Z UKMO showing snow/heavy snow for the south, southeast and parts of the east.

The UK met office are currently winging it on their own output and intuition.
They've binned the 0z gfs,thats for sure when their latest tv forecasts have that precip over the south coast of England...and none elsewhere from that system
So if they ignore it,we should too to be honest.
They have degrees from universities and degree's of experience that we don't.

I'm flummaxed altogether.
Using my intuition,none of those showers in the NW are going to reach my area anyhow and I wouldn't want them to.
I want the wind NE or East thanks.
18 inches of snow that gave me the other week and the drifts are still in the ditches here.

paddymc1

belfast airport closed

Musicman2000

maquiladora wrote: »

The models are changing on every run. Except more changes on the UKMO and GFS before we get there.

I'm only commenting on what the GFS is showing at the moment.

06Z run starting soon. Should be interesting.

Your dead right about the GFS it would give us plenty of snow, but like the front it had for tonight had just disappeared into mid air

Musicman2000

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Your dead right about the GFS it would give us plenty of snow, but like the front it had for tonight had just disappeared into mid air

Agreed.
The gfs is utter cack at the moment.
And if it's utter cack at sub 48hrs,it's toilet paper beyond that.

Musicman2000

Deleted User wrote: »

Agreed.
The gfs is utter cack at the moment.
And if it's utter cack at sub 48hrs,it's toilet paper beyond that.

06z gfs on the way out now, god only knows what it will come up with

mickger844posts

As one of the guys said earlier its by looking at Sat Images and Radars is how we will know for sure whats going to happen. The models cant be trusted on any level at this stage.

Min

So far the GFS is saying snow for all tonight.

roryc1

I can see why the models are having trouble the satellite images it looks like there are all kinds of low’s forming around Iceland
http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=eu&sat=ir&type=loop

Musicman2000

Min wrote: »

So far the GFS is saying snow for all tonight.

yeah just looking at them now

Musicman2000

maquiladora wrote: »

0Z GFS would be heavy snow and blizzard conditions at times to areas from the south to the southeast on Sunday morning.

kiss good bye to thoese lovely charts gone south

Monkaa

So has this turned into a non event all weekend for the East now? When do the winds change to an easterly direction?

Big Daddy Cool

so i suppose judging by the charts that MT's forecast of 40cm of snow for meath til monday is now not going to take place.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Big Daddy Cool wrote: »

so i suppose judging by the charts that MT's forecast of 40cm of snow for meath til monday is now not going to take place.

The models are all over the place, I wouldn't worry.

I would suggest nowcasting using a street light !

Musicman2000

Big Daddy Cool wrote: »

so i suppose judging by the charts that MT's forecast of 40cm of snow for meath til monday is now not going to take place.

MT will have to answer that one for you

Supercell

The 6z has our low tracking much further south, headed for the south of England, maybe just clipping Kerry.
However by around Sunday midday, as a result of this low tracking over southern England the winds finally turn Easterly then North Easterly..and we all know what happens then on the East. So Sunday seems to be the day for the East.

maquiladora

Yep, shock horror, big changes on the 06Z GFS again. Who would have guessed?

This run is very much a downgrade for Saturday/Sunday but who knows yet if the inevitable changes on the 12Z and 18Z runs will lead to further downgrades or upgrades?

premiercad

So has this turned into a non event all weekend for the East now? When do the winds change to an easterly direction?

East coast streamers sunday for East/South coast

Supercell

Sunday onwards we get NE winds..then its a matter of watching the steamers, until then its all about the west and north. Us in the east just have to wait our turn

leahyl

OMG lads i've missed so much - was out last night at Christmas party - no sign of any snow though;) I believe at this stage, from the looks of these models, that it is very much up in air about where will get snow and where won't so i'm not panicking just yet....

lucernarian

It's a bit of a trainwreck this morning with regards to the finer, secondary features but the pattern we're faced with has been well flagged for a few days now. I think the models are doing a decent job. There's one area I'd criticise them for, the evolution of the LP on Friday night really has varied quite a lot with some unlikely forecasts being thrown out as a result. The 06z GFS output looks rather frustrating for Ireland as a whole but it would have to verify exactly to leave out as much area as it has from snow.

The one thing most of us can say is that the one thing the models show, is NOT the exact track of a LP or indeed the Polar Vortex!

And by the way, when the wind direction turns northeasterly I really expect more shower development for the east coast than the models are letting on. They made the same mistake with the last cold outbreak. Though the snow that fell wasn't dense at all and that helped it to look a bit deeper than otherwise expected. That's what I found in both Louth and Dublin anyway.

Big Daddy Cool

Supercell wrote: »

Sunday onwards we get NE winds..then its a matter of watching the steamers, until then its all about the west and north. Us in the east just have to wait our turn

well in the space of 3 hours, us on the east coast have gone from 40cm's to nothing, so sunday is a long way away at this stage and anything could happen, and as i live on a very hilly area the least snow we get the better, well until tuesday anyway, then it can snow all it likes.

maquiladora

06Z GFS out as far as the 23rd now, looking fairly dry for us but keeping the cold conditions.

Supercell

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

It's a bit of a trainwreck this morning with regards to the finer, secondary features but the pattern we're faced with has been well flagged for a few days now. I think the models are doing a decent job. There's one area I'd criticise them for, the evolution of the LP on Friday night really has varied quite a lot with some unlikely forecasts being thrown out as a result. The 06z GFS output looks rather frustrating for Ireland as a whole but it would have to verify exactly to leave out as much area as it has from snow.

The one thing most of us can say is that the one thing the models show, is NOT the exact track of a LP or indeed the Polar Vortex!

And by the way, when the wind direction turns northeasterly I really expect more shower development for the east coast than the models are letting on. They made the same mistake with the last cold outbreak. Though the snow that fell wasn't dense at all and that helped it to look a bit deeper than otherwise expected. That's what I found in both Louth and Dublin anyway.

I agree completely, little variations on the track of that low will have major implications for Ireland.
When the NE wind comes there will be streamers on the east coast, the GFS always underestimates these, I'm ignoring the precip charts and looking at the 850 level winds and pressures etc and drawing my own conclusions from that.

Inquitus

Upgrades, Downgrades............

So at 7am it looked like no snow, now we are back to big snow?

lucernarian

Also the satellite coverage is suggesting the centre of the low going past Iceland is already a little more south and a tiny bit east than the models expected. I don't know the exact consequences of this but anything for Saturday is an improvement on the GFS model I feel!

maquiladora

06Z GFS goes for the classic Christmas morning breakdown Pure FI but nice to see the cold holding right to the big day on that run.

I'd expect it to be pushed back further in the coming days.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Inquitus wrote: »

Upgrades, Downgrades............

So at 7am it looked like no snow, now we are back to big snow?

I reckon its best to wait for the 12z runs, we can see if there are any changes then and if the models are in agreement