Winter 2010-2011 outlook

snow ghost · 05-12-2010 3:33am

Wild Bill wrote: »

I'm a firm believer in Onion Rings when it comes to geo-climatic forecasts. When Saturn is in Meniscus then the cold blast is sure to track every which way (my emphasis). This isn't an exact prediction, more an impressionistic reflection of the true gravitational reality of the Universe.

I'm a firm believer in Chaos Theory myself - when a butterfly farts in New Zealand I can smell BS in Ireland.

darol15 · 05-12-2010 10:33am

soo long story short will the weather worsen by say th 17th od december ?
my christmas tests lol or will it get better ?

Wild Bill · 05-12-2010 10:45am

If you are focused and study hard it will get better. I'm guessin' English isn't one of yer best subjects?

darol15 · 05-12-2010 11:30am

sounds lik alot of work

yer im in honours anyway

desolate sun · 05-12-2010 11:48am

Accuweather has Ireland into double figures by next weekend. Then down to about 3 and 4 by the 17th. I don't care if we get mild weather now as long as we get cold and snow for Christmas.
What do the weather peeps here think? Is there much milder weather coming in and will it get cold again?
Here where I am, we didn't experience anything like the East got, so I am waiting for some decent snowfalls

Wild Bill · 05-12-2010 11:53am

Young Darol, for that I promise you 10cm of snow on the 17th. I've been reading the Joe Bastardi column (linked above) and my Onion Ring is adamant the cold funnel will not drift southeastwards. And my Ring got more forecasts correct than the Paul the Octopus (RIP).

I see a traditional blocking Scandinavian High building over, funnily enough, Scandinavia.

Of course we don't want it drawing air up from the Eastern Med so it will move westwards every ten days allowing a flow of polar lows to flow from the pole, blanketing us with three days of heavy snowfall every ten days.

The following calm clear periods will see temperatures fall to -30C in midland areas.

On the 15th February Ireland's first snow-hotel will be built in Coosan, outside Athlone.

This oscillating block will be maintained till early April - the Onion Ring can't see further than that at the moment - the signals from the troposphere are very faint apparently.

jamesoc · 05-12-2010 12:43pm

To be honest Ken Ring i think you are full of BS , you cant seem to answer a straight question without resorting to crap .
Heres a question for you that might just begin to restore a smidgen of credibility in my eyes anyway , if you cant answer it thats fine dont bother replying .
Simple question : will it snow on the 25th of December in Ireland , and if so where ? , simple

.

darol15 · 05-12-2010 12:49pm

ur onion ring is talkin ****e lol wud be nice do

Kenring · 05-12-2010 1:33pm

jamesoc wrote: »

To be honest Ken Ring i think you are full of BS , you cant seem to answer a straight question without resorting to crap .
Heres a question for you that might just begin to restore a smidgen of credibility in my eyes anyway , if you cant answer it thats fine dont bother replying .
Simple question : will it snow on the 25th of December in Ireland , and if so where ? , simple .

Ask the onion ring guy, I've done my bit. No one wants discussion, just pokes and digs.

Dotsie~tmp · 05-12-2010 1:36pm

Where might i purchase these onion-ring forecasts?

Faithfully.
I.R. Gobshytington.

Danno · 05-12-2010 2:42pm

This cold spell has been worse than last January. Colder, more snow and ice too.

i.e. Lowest here was -12.7c this December VS -12.0c last January.
Max snow was 5" this December VS 3" last January.

thetonynator · 05-12-2010 4:51pm

Danno wrote: »

This cold spell has been worse than last January. Colder, more snow and ice too.

i.e. Lowest here was -12.7c this December VS -12.0c last January.
Max snow was 5" this December VS 3" last January.

Actual cold spell might be shorter, not sure how you would measure that, but snow cover her is much longer, 9 days and counting compared to only 4/4.5 last january.

Gonzo · 05-12-2010 5:06pm

this cold spell is way better than the one we had last January. The Isle Of Man shadow never left us alone for 2 whole weeks and as a result we only had 2 inchs of snow vs almost a foot of snow this time around.

jamesoc · 05-12-2010 5:14pm

Kenring wrote: »

Ask the onion ring guy, I've done my bit. No one wants discussion, just pokes and digs.

Ah right the old '' Ive been insulted '' excuse not to answer a question

, well Ken I'm not overly impressed by snake oil salesmen myself , anyway back on topic , if not for my benefit then maybe for the benefit of the snow hope-rs of this bankrupt little Isle , will it snow in Ireland this Christmas , and if so where ?, in your scientific opinion of course

.

nacho libre · 05-12-2010 5:33pm

thetonynator wrote: »

Actual cold spell might be shorter, not sure how you would measure that, but snow cover her is much longer, 9 days and counting compared to only 4/4.5 last january.

Yes this cold period has in fact been shorter in terms of severe cold. as we've seen in the past few days temperatues reach 7 c in some places. For 11 - 12 days back in late December into January i don't think any place recorded temperatures of 7c.

Villain · 05-12-2010 5:49pm

Kenring wrote: »

Ask the onion ring guy, I've done my bit. No one wants discussion, just pokes and digs.

LOL you couldn't be more wrong Mr Ring, YOU are the one that doesn't want discussion, you just want to make excuses and ignore what you have said in the past.

You denied saying you can forecast down to the day years in advance, the you admit saying it but it was in "Jest". It certainly wasn't in "Jest" it was a PR Sales sound bite.

Then you say you said that the last week of November would be very cold, yet the paid forecasts you sold say the total opposite.

You try and make excuses about the conditions been like that within 80 miles yet within 500 miles there was no-where any where near what you forecast not even a distant Valley.

Then when all excuses fail you say its an opinion, well Mr Ring if all you have is an incorrect opinion then maybe you should state that when on Radio Shows and your website so people know what they are paying for.

You don't want any discussion that you can't control or manipulate.

Pangea · 05-12-2010 5:53pm

I had more days of snow cover last winter, this is without a doubt shorter.
I probably had more snow last winter, so for me last winters freeze was much worse, with ice and snow lying for the most part of a month.

opinion guy · 05-12-2010 6:05pm

Pangea wrote: »

I had more days of snow cover last winter, this is without a doubt shorter.
I probably had more snow last winter, so for me last winters freeze was much worse, with ice and snow lying for the most part of a month.

Agreed. This is in no way comparable yet.

jamesoc · 05-12-2010 6:29pm

opinion guy wrote: »

Agreed. This is in no way comparable yet.

Bear in mind that last winters freeze was a twinkle in the eye at this stage last year , already this past week has been far colder than last Dec/Jan down here in the SW , if the chap from Carlow 'villian' says Rings forecasts are totally wrong then thats proof enough for me , he actually purchaced the forecasts , did you ? .

jamesoc · 05-12-2010 6:31pm

Pangea wrote: »

I had more days of snow cover last winter, this is without a doubt shorter.
I probably had more snow last winter, so for me last winters freeze was much worse, with ice and snow lying for the most part of a month.

Beginning when ? .

Villain · 05-12-2010 6:31pm

jamesoc wrote: »

Bear in mind that last winters freeze was a twinkle in the eye at this stage last year , already this past week has been far colder than last Dec/Jan down here in the SW , if the chap from Carlow 'villian' says Rings forecasts are totally wrong then thats proof enough for me , he actually purchaced the forecasts , did you ? .

Yep

jamesoc · 05-12-2010 6:36pm

Villain wrote: »

Yep

BTW in the interests of fair play i would love to hear from any others who have purchased Rings forecasts , if you are satisfied with his methods and happy with his forecasts lets hear about it .

opinion guy · 05-12-2010 7:16pm

jamesoc wrote: »

Bear in mind that last winters freeze was a twinkle in the eye at this stage last year , already this past week has been far colder than last Dec/Jan down here in the SW , if the chap from Carlow 'villian' says Rings forecasts are totally wrong then thats proof enough for me , he actually purchaced the forecasts , did you ? .

No. Dude I'm clueless about this stuff - don't know who or what Ring is. But I do have a good memory and I do know jan/feb speel lasted 4 weeks at least and this is not near that yet. Also - aren't some folks predicting a milder winter towards february. I don't expect that just because things start out this way they will stay this way. I've lived on the continent - often winters that are cold early end up quite mild on balance

patneve2 · 05-12-2010 8:00pm

Latest ECM 12Z @240hrs:

Long way off, but nearly all the major models are all contemplating the solution of renewed strong northern blocking. Fingers crossed. :cool:

p.s. impressive chart (long way off so pinch of salt needed)

Musicman2000 · 05-12-2010 8:24pm

Was justh watching the forecast on country file over on BBC 1 he said it would get a littel bit milder towards the weekend, But its not going last, so there could be hints of a cold spell coming back and most of the models are hinting at something, but thinks will change over the next week or so, be intertesting to watch

thetonynator · 05-12-2010 8:45pm

Pangea wrote: »

I had more days of snow cover last winter, this is without a doubt shorter.
I probably had more snow last winter, so for me last winters freeze was much worse, with ice and snow lying for the most part of a month.

For this part of the country anyway there has been snow cover for much longer, 5 days longer already and no sign of a full thaw yet. Also, min temps this timw were marginally ( 0.1!) colder than min last year, and we had several ice days this year too, as many as last year.

thetonynator · 05-12-2010 8:50pm

Well into FI!!!

nacho libre · 05-12-2010 9:01pm

I wonder has ireland ever had -20 upper air over it?

thetonynator · 05-12-2010 9:06pm

nacho libre wrote: »

I wonder has ireland ever had -20 upper air over it?

47/63 maybe? Are there charts for those years available???

Wild Bill · 05-12-2010 9:45pm

Just for the record; there has been 100% snow cover in Sandyford since Sat 25th November; mostly below freezing (lowest -11C) and occasional slight thaws (max in the period +3C).

Accumulation by last snowfall (Friday) was just 28cm; there is still 25cm on undisturbed surfaces.

No green grass visible anywhere since the night of 24th November.

This is most unusual.

Winter 2010-2011 outlook

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