Winter 2010-2011 outlook

Villain

Ken your charts for Carlow for this week nearly had me getting the summer clothes out!!

But its ok I know temps aren't very accurate!

Villain

Kenring wrote: »

Last year all of Ireland got snow. I am not aware that that is the case right now. Please correct me if I am wrong.

Most severe Snow here since 1982 Ken! not a sign of it on you charts for Carlow that I bought!

Redsunset

From the satellite thread i started.

2nd DEC 2010

Kenring

desolate sun wrote: »

So if average winter temps are 1 degree less than last year, technically it would be a milder winter?
That's kind of pathetic, don't you think?

Technically that would be a milder winter, yes, that's how mathematics goes.
So let's get clarity here - when global warmers say the world has risen by 0.7° in the last 100 years (not even 1 degree) and so therefore we should all have to pay a tax, you don't find that pathetic?

Kenring

redsunset wrote: »

From the satellite thread i started.

2nd DEC 2010

Great map! So far seems to have missed much of the southwest?

Kenring

Villain wrote: »

Most severe Snow here since 1982 Ken! not a sign of it on you charts for Carlow that I bought!

As I have always said, the sun is the wild card. Use the moon method for the timing of events and use the sun for temperature regimes.

Villain

Kenring wrote: »

As I have always said, the sun is the wild card. Use the moon method for the timing of events and use the sun for temperature regimes.

But Precip, temp everything was way out Ken.

Your forecast couldn't have been more wrong for this event

Kenring

Villain wrote: »

But Precip, temp everything was way out Ken.

Your forecast couldn't have been more wrong for this event

The forecast is about timing, as I have said. What you have mentioned, amounts of precip, temps, is to do with the sun.

duckysauce

Kenring wrote: »

No, but in central Siberia (same latitude range as Scandanavia)2 days ago it was -47, and yesterday it went up to a milder -45.
I never said mild, I said milder. If I did say mild I meant milder.

oh sorry i thought we were talking about Ireland ,so its siberia we are talking about :eek:.

snow ghost

Kenring wrote: »

As to the silence here, could be something about cats and tongues..

Ken,

Earlier in the year here, I cut and paste some of your forecasts and compared them to what actually happened.

The results: there was no correlation between the weather that happened and your forecasts.

I then had a look at your experience and background - and I came across the book you wrote about 'how to read your cat's paws'.

As such I conclude that you are the human equivalent of Old Moore's Almanack.

If anyone wants to believe the weather forecasts or theory of someone who claims to be able to read cats' paws - or pawmistry as you call it - fair play to them, but I found out the tooth fairy wasn't real when I was 7.

thetonynator

Record cold temps for both november and december, -16.4 in kilkenny, 7 foot of snow in the sally gao and nearly 2 feet insandyford, a densely populated area near dublin city. Thats not a slightly cold period with some flurries. And of course its abating, there hasnt been a cold spell since 1963 that lasted more than a few weeks. However even still it is going to be well below average temps for the next few weeks.

thetonynator

snow ghost wrote: »

Ken,

Earlier in the year here, I cut and paste some of your forecasts and compared them to what actually happened.

The results: there was no correlation between the weather that happened and your forecasts.

I then had a look at your experience and background - and I came across the book you wrote about 'how to read your cat's paws'.

As such I conclude that you are the human equivalent of Old Moore's Almanack.

If anyone wants to believe the weather forecasts or theory of someone who claims to be able to read cats' paws - or pawmistry as you call it - fair play to them, but I found out the tooth fairy wasn't real when I was 7.

Old moores almanac is much more accurate, dont be ridiculous!!!

But seriously, the donegal postman has a higher accuracy rate and all he does is look at foxes and stuff . . .:rolleyes:

K-9

Don't think the floods were predicted last year either plus this weather event.

M.T. Cranium

As per my general forecast, I think Ireland will see several more periods of severe winter weather. There's no doubt in my mind that this past week to ten days has been the most severe start to winter in Ireland and the U.K. for a long time, probably it would equal anything in the three centuries of records in England. Now sometimes a winter gets front-loaded and nothing much happens after one wintry episode, but I am not seeing that potential here, if anything, this is starting to look like a classic that could eventually be ranked up there with the "big" winters like 62-63 and 46-47, although I would concede that there is some chance of a flip-flop to mild weather in later January -- this may last a week or two then fade back to cold conditions. By then, there could be a lot of wintry episodes already in the bank so to speak, and at some point, you can't undo a severe winter even if some mild spells develop (as per 1981-82).

I'm not looking for any arguments by the way, I consider this field to be experimental and any realistic validation of anyone's forecasts will reveal a track record somewhere between random and perfection, unfortunately it tends to be closer to random than we would like and further from perfection than we would want to admit. But it is an improving field, I would say.

The best thing to do is to make forecasts, compare them with others and with reality, and to enter contests where possible to get realistic assessments of where you stand relative to other people trying to do this rather difficult task. Then a lot of the hype and p.r. fog dissipates and people can see what's really happening with forecasts and with different concepts. Right now in our boards winter forecast contest, we've got 35 (I think it was) winter forecasts that pretty much cover the spectrum, so come end of March when the snowfall part of that contest ends (not necessarily when snowfall ends) we will have something to point at and prod with sticks. Until then, I ain't sayin' much about whose forecasts I would take to the bank.

One other thing I would like to add -- people tend to take this subject maybe a little too seriously, we need to be realistic about where things stand. At least some progress is being made. That's quite something in and of itself.

duckysauce

seems you get it wrong everywhere not just ireland Ken. Meaow

http://www.sillybeliefs.com/ring.html

Elmer Blooker

duckysauce wrote: »

it's going to be -6 here tonite, and its -2 at the moment i don't call that mild.

Where's here? Are you near Mullingar? It appears to be the only place below freezing tonight.
When the sky cleared around 7 pm I expected the temp to drop like a stone to around -5 or -6 but it actually went from 1 to 2c at Dublin Airport. It's over, the Atlantic influence is firmly in control.

thetonynator

M.t., one thing i will say about the winter forecast competition is that an awful lot of people in the comp. (myself included) made those forecasts up on the spot and if they turn out to be right it will only be coincidental. I'm not saying that there arent a lot of genuine scientific forecasts in it, but theres a lot of random guesses in there two that can be taken with a pinch of salT! ( that is if the nra haven't used it all . .:rolleyes:)

Kenring

thetonynator wrote: »

Record cold temps for both november and december, -16.4 in kilkenny, 7 foot of snow in the sally gao and nearly 2 feet insandyford, a densely populated area near dublin city. Thats not a slightly cold period with some flurries. And of course its abating, there hasnt been a cold spell since 1963 that lasted more than a few weeks. However even still it is going to be well below average temps for the next few weeks.

Oh I see. I can say back in September that the last 10 days of November would be extra cold for the season because of the moon and then go less cold, whilst almost everyone else said winter would be worse than 2009/10 with ongoing snow, no mention on their part that the end of November would be a temporary snow dump; then it happens and you come along and say "of course it's abating", as if everybody knew it would. But everybody didn't, which is perhaps why they buy my books.
It may indeed be "below average for the next few weeks" in someone's opinion. You can't argue with opinion or feeling. Averages are a shifting line year to year, they are very local, and like feelings and opinion, they mean nothing, they are not mathematical, they are an attempt to make the expression of opinion about relativity mathematically respectable. You will not see an average walking about the streets, you will not trip over one in the dark. Averages are used to tax and penalise, they are where politics meets tertiary education. Averages have no place in weather because weather is not a science that stands up to mathematical rigour, as weather/climate is too inexact. The nearest I think one can come to quantifying it is to discuss what appear to be trends.

Villain

Kenring wrote: »

Oh I see. I can say back in September that the last 10 days of November would be extra cold for the season because of the moon and then go less cold, whilst almost everyone else said winter would be worse than 2009/10 with ongoing snow, no mention on their part that the end of November would be a temporary snow dump; then it happens and you come along and say "of course it's abating", as if everybody knew it would. But everybody didn't, which is perhaps why they buy my books.
It may indeed be "below average for the next few weeks" in someone's opinion. You can't argue with opinion or feeling. Averages are a shifting line year to year, they are very local, and like feelings and opinion, they mean nothing, they are not mathematical, they are an attempt to make the expression of opinion about relativity mathematically respectable. You will not see an average walking about the streets, you will not trip over one in the dark. Averages are used to tax and penalise, they are where politics meets tertiary education. Averages have no place in weather because weather is not a science that stands up to mathematical rigour, as weather/climate is too inexact. The nearest I think one can come to quantifying it is to discuss what appear to be trends.

Ken why would you say "last 10 days of November would be extra cold " when your paid forecast says different?????

To be honest you are getting more like Brian Cowen everyday, not able to accept you got it wrong.

I have no problem what so ever with these long range forecasts except when someone charges for it, gets it wrong and instead of saying "oops got that one way wrong" they come up with every excuse under the sun including changing their forecast!!

thetonynator

Ken, can i ask you why you chose ireland to forecast??? You live in new zealand, so that an obvious choice, and australia is not far away ( relatively :rolleyes:) but why ireland?

Would it, by any chance be becaus ewe used to/usually have very bland boring predictible weather by any chance???

duckysauce

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Where's here? Are you near Mullingar? It appears to be the only place below freezing tonight.
When the sky cleared around 7 pm I expected the temp to drop like a stone to around -5 or -6 but it actually went from 1 to 2c at Dublin Airport. It's over, the Atlantic influence is firmly in control.

Leitrim near here http://www.johnbarrington.ie/weather/

thetonynator

Kenring wrote: »

It may indeed be "below average for the next few weeks" in someone's opinion. You can't argue with opinion or feeling. Averages are a shifting line year to year, they are very local, and like feelings and opinion, they mean nothing, they are not mathematical, they are an attempt to make the expression of opinion about relativity mathematically respectable. You will not see an average walking about the streets, you will not trip over one in the dark. Averages are used to tax and penalise, they are where politics meets tertiary education. Averages have no place in weather because weather is not a science that stands up to mathematical rigour, as weather/climate is too inexact. The nearest I think one can come to quantifying it is to discuss what appear to be trends.

I'm sorry ken but there is absolutely no way i can let this go.

Aver ages are not opinion, they are measured at weather stations over a period of 30 years (1961 to 1990 in ireland) and they do not shift from year to year, the same 30 tears are used to compare against all the time. Ther do mean everything, they clearly are mathematical. They do not walk or trip you up as they are not physical objects. Weather and climate measurments are exact, look at met.ie there are plenty of exact measurements for years and years.

M.T. Cranium

thetonynator wrote: »

M.t., one thing i will say about the winter forecast competition is that an awful lot of people in the comp. (myself included) made those forecasts up on the spot and if they turn out to be right it will only be coincidental. I'm not saying that there arent a lot of genuine scientific forecasts in it, but theres a lot of random guesses in there two that can be taken with a pinch of salT! ( that is if the nra haven't used it all . .:rolleyes:)

I thought that was just the guys below Con Sensus, not you, Joe Public, Jerry and Danno. By the way, regional bias there? Something in the local water supply perhaps? :cool:

thetonynator

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I thought that was just the guys below Con Sensus, not you, Joe Public, Jerry and Danno. By the way, regional bias there? Something in the local water supply perhaps? :cool:

My forecasts are 100% fiction, made up of wishful thinking and very little else . . .

I have had 7 lucky months and 2 bad ones . . unfortunately i've no spare strikes . . .

Basically what ive shown is that you and de etc the experts using scientific methids have lost out to someone relying entirely on chance . :D:D

I'm sure it will catch up with me eventually and i'll get a few sub 20 points months . . .:D

Kenring

duckysauce wrote: »

seems you get it wrong everywhere not just ireland Ken. Meaow

http://www.sillybeliefs.com/ring.html

You pick as your source a website full of misquotes and fiction registered to a very big company who deal weather forecast inaccuracies to other big companies and what they consider high-moral-ground intellectual ethics. They culled posts I sent and/or made up things that I didn't say, so it made a better story. They seem to be a nameless dangerous element of redneck white-supremism calling for the banning of anyone who isn't 'normal' and mainstream, which includes 'psychic' entertainers, alternative healers, other cultures and their beliefs, indigenous tribes and small people brave enough to speak out against corruption in government, all trying to enjoy expression in a free world. They equally hate the Irish, all Catholics, all religious people, all immigrants. If you wish to be taken in by a Taleban lookalike you will also be regarded as one.

duckysauce

Kenring wrote: »

You pick as your source a website full of misquotes and fiction registered to a very big company who deal weather forecast inaccuracies to other big companies and what they consider high-moral-ground intellectual ethics. They culled posts I sent and/or made up things that I didn't say, so it made a better story. They seem to be a nameless dangerous element of redneck white-supremism calling for the banning of anyone who isn't 'normal' and mainstream, which includes 'psychic' entertainers, alternative healers, other cultures and their beliefs, indigenous tribes and small people brave enough to speak out against corruption in government, all trying to enjoy expression in a free world. They equally hate the Irish, all Catholics, all religious people, all immigrants. If you wish to be taken in by a Taleban lookalike you will also be regarded as one.

looks like the men in the white coats are coming to take you away.

H2UMrsRobinson

thetonynator wrote: »

M.t., one thing i will say about the winter forecast competition is that an awful lot of people in the comp. (myself included) made those forecasts up on the spot and if they turn out to be right it will only be coincidental. I'm not saying that there arent a lot of genuine scientific forecasts in it, but theres a lot of random guesses in there two that can be taken with a pinch of salT! ( that is if the nra haven't used it all . .:rolleyes:)

I'm in your gang thetonynator...My forecast was made out of a reasonably pathetic need not to be left out of any competition on the go! Had a sneaky peak at everyone elses forecast and picked numbers that I liked the sound of. Although my 35cm snowfall "predicition" for the winter is looking a little conservative now !

Kenring

Villain wrote: »

Ken why would you say "last 10 days of November would be extra cold " when your paid forecast says different?????

To be honest you are getting more like Brian Cowen everyday, not able to accept you got it wrong.

I have no problem what so ever with these long range forecasts except when someone charges for it, gets it wrong and instead of saying "oops got that one way wrong" they come up with every excuse under the sun including changing their forecast!!

I was not aware that you work for everybody for nothing, How do you afford to pay overheads and staff?
I am not aware of changing any forecast. The last 10 days of November cold is in all of my work. Pray tell me where it says last 10 days of November would be pristine dry and warmer.
To deliberately misquote me just because one is a rival meteorologist who also operates a weather website is rather unfair.

Villain

Kenring wrote: »

I was not aware that you work for everybody for nothing, How do you afford to pay overheads and staff?
I am not aware of changing any forecast. The last 10 days of November cold is in all of my work. Pray tell me where it says last 10 days of November would be pristine dry and warmer.
To deliberately misquote me just because one is a rival meteorologist who also operates a weather website is rather unfair.

Lol a hobby website Ken with a station auto updating and automated forecast, I work for a living.

I will gladly show how you were wrong and how you didn't predict very cold weather for November if you let me post a screen grab of your forecast??

Kenring

Villain wrote: »

Lol a hobby website Ken with a station auto updating and automated forecast, I work for a living.

I will gladly show how you were wrong and how you didn't predict very cold weather for November if you let me post a screen grab of your forecast??

I also work for a living, but you seem to resent that. Not everybody is like you, it just so happens I make my hobby my living too. You'll find that several billion people around the world try to do the same.
No, I cannot allow a screen grab, it is intellectual property. But I am willing to discuss it. I had snow for 23/24 in Carlow but within the 50-80 mile radius range of weather forecasting, all counties getting much more in that time period.