Winter 2010-2011 outlook

Villain

Kenring wrote: »

I also work for a living, but you seem to resent that. Not everybody is like you, it just so happens I make my hobby my living too. You'll find that several billion people around the world try to do the same.
No, I cannot allow a screen grab, it is intellectual property. But I am willing to discuss it. I had snow for 23/24 in Carlow but within the 50-80 mile radius range of weather forecasting, all counties getting much more in that time period.

The forecast was way way off it's in the past now so why not allow a screen grab?

You obviously have something to hide!

Kenring

duckysauce wrote: »

looks like the men in the white coats are coming to take you away.

If I awoke one day to find I'd changed my name on all my stationery to 'duckysauce'..I'd ring the men in white coats myself and plead for them to come and get me.

pistolpetes11

Kenring wrote: »

I also work for a living, but you seem to resent that. Not everybody is like you, it just so happens I make my hobby my living too. You'll find that several billion people around the world try to do the same.
No, I cannot allow a screen grab, it is intellectual property. But I am willing to discuss it. I had snow for 23/24 in Carlow but within the 50-80 mile radius range of weather forecasting, all counties getting much more in that time period.

To be honest , not allowing a screen grab because its IP is kinda silly .

It would put the debate into a lot of perspective ,

1: You got it completely correct

2: You got it wrong but are not prepared to admit it.

Back it up with the facts in black and white I say , that way putting the matter to bed and allowing the thread to get back on track.

Kenring

Villain wrote: »

The forecast was way way off it's in the past now so why not allow a screen grab?

You obviously have something to hide!

How can it be way way off for the 50-80 mile radius if snow actually did come like I said it would? I have nothing to hide but I do not want you making a federal case from something you are misinterpreting. Remember I am only using one gauge for a whole county. That is all I am granted access to by Met Eirann. Obviously there are microclimates everywhere. That is why I must speak generally. Because I only have 1, maybe 2 in some places, I don't even have verification rights. It is therefore not as scientific as I would want it to be. NOT MY FAULT.

Villain

Kenring wrote: »

How can it be way way off for the 50-80 mile radius if snow actually did come like I said it would? I have nothing to hide but I do not want you making a federal case from something you are misinterpreting. Remember I am only using one gauge for a whole county. That is all I am granted access to by Met Eirann. Obviously there are microclimates everywhere. That is why I must speak generally. Because I only have 1, maybe 2 in some places, I don't even have verification rights. It is therefore not as scientific as I would want it to be. NOT MY FAULT.

You didn't forecast this past week to have snow, you sad earlier you said the last week in Nov would be very cold I have a forecast from you that's says the total opposite!!

Either admit you got it wrong or let me post the details up

Kenring

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

To be honest , not allowing a screen grab because its IP is kinda silly .

It would put the debate into a lot of perspective ,

1: You got it completely correct

2: You got it wrong but are not prepared to admit it.

Back it up with the facts in black and white I say , that way putting the matter to bed and allowing the thread to get back on track.

I am not responsible for the thread going off track. Breaching copyright isn't going to change that. I tell the trends as I see them. People take issue with that? - well, get over it, I'm allowed to have an opinion. If you don't agree, give your opinion. If we have a difference of opinion, let's discuss it. But let's stop this personal attack stuff. Villain has been a prime shinkicker in the past, and now he's back. He seems to think that if I sell forecast reports I am some sort of devil. I don't recall coming over and forcing him at gun point to buy anything from me.

Kenring

Villain wrote: »

You didn't forecast this past week to have snow, you sad earlier you said the last week in Nov would be very cold I have a forecast from you that's says the total opposite!!

Either admit you got it wrong or let me post the details up

Sorry, still no. Admit that you got it wrong, because in all my work I ask you to consider the 50-80 mile radius rule of application. You have a forecast from me that says Carlow had the potential for subzero minimums around the moon's northern declination, range 23rd-24th. Let's hear you deny or confirm that.

Kenring

Damo9090 wrote: »

Its the paid forecast that the problem lies with.

Yes, I think so. It seems that is off-topic because it isn't about weather, it's about work ethics, i.e. should someone do things free or deserve to get paid for their time and effort.

Villain

Kenring wrote: »

Sorry, still no. Admit that you got it wrong, because in all my work I ask you to consider the 50-80 mile radius rule of application. You have a forecast from me that says Carlow had the potential for subzero minimums around the moon's northern declination, range 23rd-24th. Let's hear you deny or confirm that.

Forget about the 23rd I'm talking about last week in Nov that you mentioned and also first 4 days of December.

It's funny how under questions here you say it's an opinion, yet on Irish radio you tell people you can predict weather to within a day years in advance to try and sell your forecasts!!

LEIN

Villain wrote: »

It's funny how under questions here you say it's an opinion, yet on Irish radio you tell people you can predict weather to within a day years in advance to try and sell your forecasts!!

As i said over on the IWN its all spam.

Promote books and paid forecasts from website.

duckysauce

Kenring wrote: »

I am not responsible for the thread going off track. Breaching copyright isn't going to change that. I tell the trends as I see them. People take issue with that? - well, get over it, I'm allowed to have an opinion. If you don't agree, give your opinion. If we have a difference of opinion, let's discuss it. But let's stop this personal attack stuff. Villain has been a prime shinkicker in the past, and now he's back. He seems to think that if I sell forecast reports I am some sort of devil. I don't recall coming over and forcing him at gun point to buy anything from me.

if your forecast was right let him post it , or is he part of the white power anti moon group too ?

Kenring

Villain wrote: »

Forget about the 23rd I'm talking about last week in Nov that you mentioned and also first 4 days of December.

It's funny how under questions here you say it's an opinion, yet on Irish radio you tell people you can predict weather to within a day years in advance to try and sell your forecasts!!

Well, over here we regard the 23rd as being in the last 10 days of November.
I never tell anyone I can predict the weather. That would be setting myself up as god. On my almanac it says I offer opinions. I do suggest the buyer can do the prediction from reading the trends and the reasons.

Villain

Kenring wrote: »

Well, over here we regard the 23rd as being in the last 10 days of November.
I never tell anyone I can predict the weather. That would be setting myself up as god. On my almanac it says I offer opinions. I do suggest the buyer can do the prediction from reading the trends and the reasons.

Lol you have a short memory Ken as was proven before you said it on the Last Word on Today FM. You forecast 15c High today with a low of 10c, you'll have to go 800 miles to get near that

Kenring

Damo9090 wrote: »

As i said over on the IWN its all spam.

Promote books and paid forecasts from website.

But there you go again discussing it! I have no wish to land myself in hot water with the moderators for self-promoting. This has gone far enough. I wish the discussion of whether or not I earn from products to cease on this forum. Please stop talking about it and requiring me to defend attacks on my activities. Methinks Villain and Damo are being deliberately obtuse in order to get me banned. I would rather there was some sort of control over those who are working at getting me removed. If you no longer hear from me the moderators will have cut me off as they have threatened to.
Can we get back to talking about Winter 2010-2011 Outlook?

Villain

Kenring wrote: »

But there you go again discussing it! I have no wish to land myself in hot water with the moderators for self-promoting. This has gone far enough. I wish the discussion of whether or not I earn from products to cease on this forum. Please stop talking about it and requiring me to defend attacks on my activities. Methinks Villain and Damo are being deliberately obtuse in order to get me banned. I would rather there was some sort of control over those who are working at getting me removed. If you no longer hear from me the moderators will have cut me off as they have threatened to.
Can we get back to talking about Winter 2010-2011 Outlook?

No intention of getting you banned, just looking to discuss your predictions in an "Honest" manner.

Do you deny you said that on Today FM? Do you deny that your paid forecast was totally and utterly wrong for this cold spell.

If you answer Yes then we can move but otherwise the discussion is pointless.

Kenring

Villain wrote: »

Lol you have a short memory Ken as was proven before you said it on the Last Word on Today FM. You forecast 15c High today with a low of 10c, you'll have to go 800 miles to get near that

Well, as I said, I was only using one temperature reading from one station. There could well have been that reading in one valley. Always take a range and consider trends, not specifics.

Villain

Kenring wrote: »

Well, as I said, I was only using one temperature reading from one station. There could well have been that reading in one valley. Always take a range and consider trends, not specifics.

Lol 15c today within 80 miles of Carlow?? Come on Ken??

Do you deny what I said you stated on Today FM

Kenring

Villain wrote: »

No intention of getting you banned, just looking to discuss your predictions in an "Honest" manner.

Do you deny you said that on Today FM? Do you deny that your paid forecast was totally and utterly wrong for this cold spell.

If you answer Yes then we can move but otherwise the discussion is pointless.

Yes I deny that I said that. I pointed people to where they could get where I said the last 10 days of November would be a cold spell. Do you deny that? Do you deny that I wrote in your report that there was potential for subzero minimums on northern lunar declination in the last 10 days of November in Carlow?

Villain

Kenring wrote: »

Yes I deny that I said that. I pointed people to where they could get where I said the last 10 days of November would be a cold spell. Do you deny that? Do you deny that I wrote in your report that there was potential for subzero minimums on northern lunar declination in the last 10 days of November in Carlow?

The forecast for last 10 days was totally wrong.

So you deny saying you can predict weather to the day even the hour years in advance live on Today FM?

thetonynator

Kenring wrote: »

Yes I deny that I said that. I pointed people to where they could get where I said the last 10 days of November would be a cold spell. Do you deny that? Do you deny that I wrote in your report that there was potential for subzero minimums on northern lunar declination in the last 10 days of November in Carlow?

ken, there is always potential for sub zero minimums in november. It's like me saying there is potential for over 20 degree temps in july and selling it.

I notice you didn't answer my earlier question about why you picked ireland to forecast for, is it because i was right?

I think i'm going to set up a forecasting company for southern algeria. Shouldn't be too hare winter: temps 30+ no rain. Summer: temps 40+ no rain. Anyone want to buy it off me? :rolleyes:

M.T. Cranium

Yes, it will go nicely with my Nigerian bank service that I just purchased at the very encouraging price of five thousand US dollars. Apparently in a month I will be getting a cheque for twenty thousand.

That will allow me to fly to Algeria and supervise operations.

Could you send me a cheque for five thousand US dollars just as a good faith gesture? Thanks.

I will see to it that your investment is suitably rewarded.

thetonynator

I'd love to m.t. But i just spent my last 5 grand on a shipment off discount viagra which i have been told i will be able to sell for 50 grand.

M.T. Cranium

You're obviously a sharper businessman than me, then, you stand to make twice the profit and get lucky at the same time. :cool:

Kenring

Villain wrote: »

The forecast for last 10 days was totally wrong.

So you deny saying you can predict weather to the day even the hour years in advance live on Today FM?

Oh I may have said it in jest. I may have also said we can do the street and the particular hat and handbag that would get snowflakes on them. Did I say how many raindrops plus/minus 7? Sometimes there are slow-to-grasp-concepts-folk who think this is an exact science, that it is not about trends but actual figures. But clearly most people get what I am trying to do or I wouldn't still be in business.

snow ghost

thetonynator wrote: »

But seriously, the donegal postman has a higher accuracy rate and all he does is look at foxes and stuff . . .:rolleyes:

Don't knock the Donegal postie - unless he starts reading fox paws and predicting their future - wild animals are in tune with their environment, they live outside, and they instinctively have a sense of what weather is probably coming, their next meal or life can depend on it.

I saw a few foxes out earlier wearing longer skirts than usual, so I knew it would remain chilly. :pac:

snow ghost

Kenring wrote: »

But clearly most people get what I am trying to do or I wouldn't still be in business.

Medicine Shows often remained in business for some time too Ken - they just kept moving to a new town.

Redsunset

From Joe B
Friday
it's interesting to see tonight's run of the ECMWF model try to re-charge the blocking for one more go around mid December to mid January, not only for Europe, but for much of the eastern U.S. This certainly runs counter to my ideas, which say we are going to break this and reverse it in the north.

Read more on his thoughts
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp

thetonynator

Kenring wrote: »

Oh I may have said it in jest. I may have also said we can do the street and the particular hat and handbag that would get snowflakes on them. Did I say how many raindrops plus/minus 7? Sometimes there are slow-to-grasp-concepts-folk who think this is an exact science, that it is not about trends but actual figures. But clearly most people get what I am trying to do or I wouldn't still be in business.

You say it is about trends. What sort of trends do you mean? Because saying on a national radio station that there will be rain on a certain date and no rain on another date and claiming to be accurate is not about trends, it exact forecasting. (Which coincidentally almost always is wrong).

Kenring

thetonynator wrote: »

You say it is about trends. What sort of trends do you mean? Because saying on a national radio station that there will be rain on a certain date and no rain on another date and claiming to be accurate is not about trends, it exact forecasting. (Which coincidentally almost always is wrong).

Okay, here's what I mean. I said, on Nov 30 "as soon as tomorrow's perigee is over and the moon crosses over to the south, then conditions should become considerably milder rather quickly".
The BBC Said for 4th Dec:
"Some changes today as the serious deep cold is pushed away thanks to a weather system coming in from the northwest. Therefore the snow showers that have been affecting eastern areas for so much of this week have finally died out, whilst outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow are coming into north-western areas.."
I had email last night from a UK correspondent who said The bone-bitingly cold east wind dropped in the UK on the 3rd, and the temperature never got above freezing. The clouds have rolled over and it already feels slightly warmer. The TV pundits predict a warmer week-end.

So it seems that I was correct about milder conditions coming in once the perigee at declination -06*22' had worked itself through. That was the trend. If I had said this weather over the next few days is going to get even colder, I would have been incorrect. As it was, I believe the moon method has value in that it can predict this sort of thing successfully. And in itself it is useful because plans may be made that may be economically advantageous, like a shop stocking up on winter clothing when the coldest periods are expected, or selling umbrellas on wet days.

A trend is not specific weather at Carlow or at Dublin on a specific day, but more like over a week. The figures I put out are focus points for the trend, i.e. rising or falling temperatures, but focussing on the figures as actual values misses the point of all forecasting, which is too inexact to stand such examination. One street will always be cooler than the next street, one valley will always get more rain than a neighbouring one because it faces the SW or whatever.

It's a bit like trying to put a numerical value to happiness. We can't. But we can say I am happier today than yesterday, but not as happy as I will be tomorrow. Does that help you understand what I mean?

Wild Bill

I'm a firm believer in Onion Rings when it comes to geo-climatic forecasts. When Saturn is in Meniscus then the cold blast is sure to track every which way (my emphasis). This isn't an exact prediction, more an impressionistic reflection of the true gravitational reality of the Universe.

Remember where you heard it first.

Max will be +1C in Rathdrum tomorrow. (Met Eireann) :cool: