Winter 2010-2011 outlook

Wild Bill

Kenring wrote: »

Well, it would be bizarre and unusual to have a February too warm for snow as part of an unusually cold winter. It would mean a December and January so cold it would break all records. But I don't even think anywhere in Ireland will have a white Xmas. The snow should come on either side of it.

So - Christmas Eve and St Stephen's Day? I can live with that!

pistolpetes11

Kenring wrote: »

No, you may not "point out" something that is grossly untrue, and I deserve an apology. My article written on 17 September still stands on my website saying in two places that this period would be cold. One says "snow flurries around 23rd-25th". The other says "Some of the coolest periods may be ..last ten days of November, the week around New years Eve..." At the risk of self-promotion I cannot post the URL but if you email me I would be glad to.
I think February will be too warm for snow in Ireland. That is a mild winter in my book.

A mild February , does not make a mild winter

Fiskar

thetonynator wrote: »

May i point out that you didn't 'predict' this cold spell until after it started? You said we would have a mild winter. You will now come up with some big rant about how one cold spell doesn't make the winter, but this winter will always be considered a cold winter even if temps rise massively soon.

+1 and that also goes goes for more than mild Joe Bastardi.
Keep up the good "amateur" work on Boards and IW online.

yogidc26

Kenring wrote: »

Correction, I am pushing the boat out. I have been saying all year that a milder winter is in store , vs most other forecasters who have been declaring that another extreme winter just like that last one is already in the bag.

It illustrates something about the human psyche. We are so easily spooked. When something extreme happens we often think it's going to be the pattern henceforth for all the foreseeable future. Really, it is a protective response called shock, which closes down objectivity. We saw it in Australia with the global warming argument two years ago. One very dry year and a severe drought on one State brings a media-crowing about drought setting in for the next 1000 years. When it rains two weeks later the "experts" and media suddenly change their minds.

In NZ we also saw it a month ago with the Christchurch 7.1 mag earthquake followed by over 1000 aftershocks. Now folk there think equally destructive earthquakes are going to come anytime soon. They do not realise that very few severe earthquakes revisit the scene of a former crime with the same intensity and destruction within a lifetime. In fact for that reason Christchurch is probably now the safest place to be. Likewise, Ireland may be one of the least likely places to get a winter repeat of 2009/10.
The trick is to train yourself to check each year on its own merits, and not compare to averages based on the solar calendar year, and not on their own wishlist or some group or peer consensual expectation.

Not targeting anyone on this forum, but often one dummy says something, the other dummies copy the first one, and then it gets widely reported as "scientists say.." and before you know it we're all paying some carbon or climate tax. They haven't thought of a Cold Tax yet, but they will if you give them enough rope!

Ken Ring
www.predictweather.com

:D

mike65

I was wondering if Ken Ring had predicted this

Irish Times sacremongering

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2010/1130/1224284431435.html?via=rel

Prof Lockwood, who is also based at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratories in Oxfordshire, has shown that historically when sunspot activity is low, the jet stream changes direction to bring on the freezing weather.

The sun is currently very quiet, having recently passed through the “solar minimum”, the low point in an 11-year solar cycle that peaks at the “solar maximum”.

This will lead to more cold spells in the next few months and years, he believes

Well the solar maximum is due in two years so this seems like exaggeration.

thetonynator

mike65 wrote: »

I was wondering if Ken Ring had predicted this

Irish Times sacremongering

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2010/1130/1224284431435.html?via=rel



Well the solar maximum is due in two years so this seems like exaggeration.

I always thought ken ring predicted weather not irish times articles . . :P

:pac:

cammo 30

i can confirm that snow fall of 3 inches in drogheda fell today at 0200 hrs.

happy days having trouble putting up pics

Redsunset

mike65 wrote: »

I was wondering if Ken Ring had predicted this

Irish Times sacremongering

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2010/1130/1224284431435.html?via=rel



Well the solar maximum is due in two years so this seems like exaggeration.

Thats not Irish times scaremongering,i should not haved to tell you that.
I have alot of that explained in The sun is dead thread,i don't really care if people refuse to believe it or not.

Kenring

This from http://prop.hfradio.org/
"Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Covering the period: 22 - 28 November 2010
Solar activity was at very low levels during the entire 22 - 28 November 2010 period. Late on 27 November, from 1800-2400 UTC, activity increased to mostly unsettled to active levels with an isolated storm period. This increase in activity was due to the combined effects of a coronal hole high-speed stream (CHHSS) and a slow moving CME observed on 24 November. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed throughout the remainder of the period. Overall, the monthly average background 'hard' X-ray level is rising (as seen by the following plot), showing a change from deep solar cycle minimum. We are certainly in the rising phase of Sunspot Cycle 24. While it has been a slow up-tick over the last eighteen months, I expect to see a more rapid rise during late 2010, and through 2011."

From this one can infer that solar activity is rising, cold abating. It is certainly not going the other way, back into solar minimum, so it is hard to see how scientists can come to the conclusion that the sun will become once again as inactive as it was over the last winter.

nacho libre

“November is a pretty good predictor of what December through February is going to be like,” he said.

if only that were true.:( we only have to look back to last November to see that's a flawed conclusion.

duckysauce

Ken you don't seem to do winters very well, last year the west of Ireland was a block of ice for 2 months when i pointed this out you said you don't do temperatures:D, seems you got this winter wrong aswell, maybe you should drop the moon and seek another medium, that works and is not just a media spinner ??

thetonynator

Kenring wrote: »

No, you may not "point out" something that is grossly untrue, and I deserve an apology. My article written on 17 September still stands on my website saying in two places that this period would be cold. One says "snow flurries around 23rd-25th". The other says "Some of the coolest periods may be ..last ten days of November, the week around New years Eve..." At the risk of self-promotion I cannot post the URL but if you email me I would be glad to.
I think February will be too warm for snow in Ireland. That is a mild winter in my book.

I'm afraid i cannot offer any apology, 8 inches 6.5 of which fell in the last few days of november in a usually snow free location is not ''a few flurries''. This is not a ''coolperiod'' it is the coldest november period at least since 1919 maybe ever. Could you pm me that url please? I would like to look it up. And one mild february doesn't mean a mild winter. Last winter was the coldest in a long long time, my snow toatl for the moneth was less than 1 cm. There was basically no snow here, doesnt mean it was a mild winter.

snow ghost

Kenring wrote: »

This from http://prop.hfradio.org/
"Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Covering the period: 22 - 28 November 2010
Solar activity was at very low levels during the entire 22 - 28 November 2010 period. Late on 27 November, from 1800-2400 UTC, activity increased to mostly unsettled to active levels with an isolated storm period. This increase in activity was due to the combined effects of a coronal hole high-speed stream (CHHSS) and a slow moving CME observed on 24 November. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed throughout the remainder of the period. Overall, the monthly average background 'hard' X-ray level is rising (as seen by the following plot), showing a change from deep solar cycle minimum. We are certainly in the rising phase of Sunspot Cycle 24. While it has been a slow up-tick over the last eighteen months, I expect to see a more rapid rise during late 2010, and through 2011."

From this one can infer that solar activity is rising, cold abating. It is certainly not going the other way, back into solar minimum, so it is hard to see how scientists can come to the conclusion that the sun will become once again as inactive as it was over the last winter.

Ken

I saw a cat paw print in the snow today - at first I thought it was a fox paw, but on closer inspection it was definitely feline, I had a quick read of it and it basically said that the winter was going to be Cat altogether.

Would this correlate with your predictions?

snow ghost

I have a totally and utterly non-sicentific 'feeling' that Friday is going to be Snow Apocalypse, :eek: most white-outs creep up unnanounced.

Kenring

snow ghost wrote: »

Ken

I saw a cat paw print in the snow today - at first I thought it was a fox paw, but on closer inspection it was definitely feline, I had a quick read of it and it basically said that the winter was going to be Cat altogether.

Would this correlate with your predictions?

I'd say paw you, having to resort to catty re-marks :rolleyes:

snow ghost

Kenring wrote: »

I'd say paw you, having to resort to catty re-marks :rolleyes:

Miaaoooowwww :eek:

Kenring

thetonynator wrote: »

I'm afraid i cannot offer any apology, 8 inches 6.5 of which fell in the last few days of november in a usually snow free location is not ''a few flurries''. This is not a ''coolperiod'' it is the coldest november period at least since 1919 maybe ever. Could you pm me that url please? I would like to look it up. And one mild february doesn't mean a mild winter. Last winter was the coldest in a long long time, my snow toatl for the moneth was less than 1 cm. There was basically no snow here, doesnt mean it was a mild winter.

I have been told by the moderator I cannot post references to my website. I have no desire to be entrapped. Nothing to prevent you looking it up yourself. One article 17 Sept and another 18 Oct.

Godge

It doesn't really matter whether the rest of the winter is mild.

This winter already is different to the nondescript winters of the nineties and early noughties. Whether or not the winter is slightly above, slightly below or more than slightly below normal it is more like the winters of old.

Like 81-82 being remembered for the Minister for Snow, this November will be remembered for loads of Thundersnow and the IMF. That makes it an epic winter already even if the rest of it is a washout.

thetonynator

Kenring wrote: »

I have been told by the moderator I cannot post references to my website. I have no desire to be entrapped. Nothing to prevent you looking it up yourself. One article 17 Sept and another 18 Oct.

From the october one:

A quick overview of what to expect this winter for Ireland, and the reasons for the opinion. How does it compare with last winter? Cold but not as cold, drier but still likely to be some wet periods, probably all over by February

This is the introduction, and without meaning to be rude, it doesnt really forecast anythinf as it covers more or less everything.

''Cold but not as cold'' - well last winter was the coldest in nearly 50 years, so it was always really going to be at least a bit colder. So not as cold covers everything.

''drier but likely to be wet periods'' - well nov 2009 was so wet that this also covers everything, and saying there willbe wet periods is also covering yourself for more or less all eventualities too.

''probably all over by february'' - but yet later you go on to say:

These and a third interval in mid-March 2011 should be the coldest periods of winter.

However some of it is good - you did forecast this cold period, maybe not the depth of it, but you did forecast it. You also forecast the breakdown tomorrow, which i congratulate you on as there is a breakdown forecast tomorrow, although maybe it will come back, nobody is sure yet.

Unfortunatly i cant find the september article.

Kenring

thetonynator wrote: »

From the october one:



This is the introduction, and without meaning to be rude, it doesnt really forecast anythinf as it covers more or less everything.

''Cold but not as cold'' - well last winter was the coldest in nearly 50 years, so it was always really going to be at least a bit colder. So not as cold covers everything.

''drier but likely to be wet periods'' - well nov 2009 was so wet that this also covers everything, and saying there willbe wet periods is also covering yourself for more or less all eventualities too.

''probably all over by february'' - but yet later you go on to say:

However some of it is good - you did forecast this cold period, maybe not the depth of it, but you did forecast it. You also forecast the breakdown tomorrow, which i congratulate you on as there is a breakdown forecast tomorrow, although maybe it will come back, nobody is sure yet.

Unfortunatly i cant find the september article.

It's there (called Ireland rest of 2010 and 2011).
As for the rest of your comments, I don't understand - so basically you are praising me without wanting to appear to be?
"Cold" because it is winter, obviously, but "not as cold" is fairly clear, when I could have said colder than last winter overall, and that would have been entirely an opposite prediction. So that statement doesn't cover everything.
"Drier but likely to be wet periods" is the language of the forecaster. Once again I am saying something that would mean the opposite if I said "wetter" meaning overall for the season. So that statement doesn't cover everything either.
''..probably all over by february'' refers to the brunt of winter. 10th-16th February is a further potential period cold enough to bring snow in places that also have precipitation, but overall the month should be milder.
One more cold event in March completes a winter that many think will continue as it started, snow on snow on snow. I am saying that probably won't be the case, and that only 3 or 4 extra cold periods, one of them now easing, leaving 2 or 3 to go, does not qualify for a winter as bad as last winter.
These statements are as specific as one can get when talking about weather longrange, and are useful for longterm planning. If you were a salt contractor stocking up over January hoping that in February roads will still be snow-bound you may be out of luck. Perhaps you are trying to make generalities fit into specific one-size-fits-all predictions for the country and season. It is because of microclimates in each county, that forecasters have "maybes" and "chances of". It is not because they are lazy or wanting to mislead; it is just that they are always only talking about potentials.

Kenring

Rather deafening silence on this forum now, now that the cold is abating somewhat, as predicted, both in solar and lunar terms.
Solar because the sun is warming up in its new cycle 24, albeit very gradually over the next 18 months, and lunar because we are moving away from the both perigee/northern declination combination that always brings a rush of colder air southwards from the Pole.
The last days of November were in our predictions for the cold spell, and it was always only going to be temporary. It probably won't be as cold again until the end of December. It doesn't mean Caribbean temperatures will suddenly descend on Ireland, but it does bode well for the trend forecast for winter, that is that cold intervals would alternate with milder ones, and that end of October, end of November and end of December/early January temperatures would be the periods that would define the extent of the season's cold, and overall it may not turn out to be the record cold season for Ireland that those well-paid experts misled everyone about. Perhaps they will be proven correct in the long run, we shall see, but so far I think not.
As to the silence here, could be something about cats and tongues..

desolate sun

I never could understand the animosity people on this forum had towards KenRing. But now I think I get it.

You KenRing are wrong. You predicted a mild winter, you didn't predict the snow armageddon that the east of the country got. Why can't you just say you were wrong, instead of making petty remarks. It's kind of embarrassing reading your posts, trying to cover your tracks. Why can't you be a man, and admit you're wrong?

Kenring

desolate sun wrote: »

I never could understand the animosity people on this forum had towards KenRing. But now I think I get it.

You KenRing are wrong. You predicted a mild winter, you didn't predict the snow armageddon that the east of the country got. Why can't you just say you were wrong, instead of making petty remarks. It's kind of embarrassing reading your posts, trying to cover your tracks. Why can't you be a man, and admit you're wrong?

What part of "cold in last 10 days of November for Ireland" do you not understand? No, the animosity may be because the idea that the moon and sun control weather is so basic and obvious that grownups are too embarrassed to admit they didn't notice it. And the meteorologists on this forum who hide behind false names perhaps don't like the fact that a nonmeteorologist who lives 14000 miles away, and who writes a yearly book about Ireland's weather only because no one else seems to have the fortitude to attempt the task, seems to get more media attention at times.
And I didn't predict a mild winter, I said milder than last winter, big difference. From a lunar point of view Ireland is working towards milder winters, but the sun is the wild card.

pistolpetes11

The silence here is more so to do with the fact that everyone is off enjoying all the snow we have.

By the way self praise is worthless, even more so when your praising your self on a event that's only just begun.

If we do in fact have a mild winter I for one will say fair play and it's a good call.

Until then , less of the self praise please .

Kenring wrote: »

Rather deafening silence on this forum now, now that the cold is abating somewhat, as predicted, both in solar and lunar terms.
Solar because the sun is warming up in its new cycle 24, albeit very gradually over the next 18 months, and lunar because we are moving away from the both perigee/northern declination combination that always brings a rush of colder air southwards from the Pole.
The last days of November were in our predictions for the cold spell, and it was always only going to be temporary. It probably won't be as cold again until the end of December. It doesn't mean Caribbean temperatures will suddenly descend on Ireland, but it does bode well for the trend forecast for winter, that is that cold intervals would alternate with milder ones, and that end of October, end of November and end of December/early January temperatures would be the periods that would define the extent of the season's cold, and overall it may not turn out to be the record cold season for Ireland that those well-paid experts misled everyone about. Perhaps they will be proven correct in the long run, we shall see, but so far I think not.
As to the silence here, could be something about cats and tongues..

duckysauce

Kenring wrote: »

Rather deafening silence on this forum now, now that the cold is abating somewhat,

it's going to be -6 here tonite, and its -2 at the moment i don't call that mild.

Kenring

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

The silence here is more so to do with the fact that everyone is off enjoying all the snow we have.

By the way self praise is worthless, even more so when your praising your self on a event that's only just begun.

If we do in fact have a mild winter I for one will say fair play and it's a good call.

Until then , less of the self praise please .

No problem, but then I was only responding to the criticism that was unkind and inaccurate and something I did not feel I deserved. Down here us rugby-ites tackle stuff like that.

desolate sun

Kenring wrote:

I have been saying all year that a milder winter is in store , vs most other forecasters who have been declaring that another extreme winter just like that last one is already in the bag.

Ireland may be one of the least likely places to get a winter repeat of 2009/10.

So this is not an extreme winter, nor is it a repeat of 2009/2010?
I would say the snowfall is more extreme than last year.

Kenring

duckysauce wrote: »

it's going to be -6 here tonite, and its -2 at the moment i don't call that mild.

No, but in central Siberia (same latitude range as Scandanavia)2 days ago it was -47, and yesterday it went up to a milder -45.
I never said mild, I said milder. If I did say mild I meant milder.

desolate sun

Kenring wrote: »

No, but in central Siberia (same latitude range as Scandanavia)2 days ago it was -47, and yesterday it went up to a milder -45.
I never said mild, I said milder. If I did say mild I meant milder.

So if average winter temps are 1 degree less than last year, technically it would be a milder winter?
That's kind of pathetic, don't you think?

Kenring

desolate sun wrote: »

[/I]

So this is not an extreme winter, nor is it a repeat of 2009/2010?
I would say the snowfall is more extreme than last year.

Last year all of Ireland got snow. I am not aware that that is the case right now. Please correct me if I am wrong.