Winter 2010-2011 outlook

Su Campu · 14-10-2010 08:53PM

There was talk about what influence La Niña will have on our winter. Here are two articles that try to explain it (in Italian, and geared towards Italy, but helpful nonetheless). They say the La Niña Modoki should help the setup of North Atlantic blocking - the position of which, though, will be crucial for us. A bit too east and the cold will miss to our east.

First article (and Google translation - for what it's worth! :rolleyes: )
Second (translation)

nacho libre · 14-10-2010 08:58PM

"The current pattern has been moulded by almost record breaking tropical convection in the Indian Ocean leading to a very large amplitude phase 6 MJO orbit. This tropical convection looks to slowly decline keeping the MJO in phase 6 and the current pattern static. Until we see another major change in the GWO and the MJO, things won't get moving again."

is he right?

Su Campu · 15-10-2010 09:23AM

nacho libre wrote: »

"The current pattern has been moulded by almost record breaking tropical convection in the Indian Ocean leading to a very large amplitude phase 6 MJO orbit. This tropical convection looks to slowly decline keeping the MJO in phase 6 and the current pattern static. Until we see another major change in the GWO and the MJO, things won't get moving again."

is he right?

Is who right? Was that in one of the Italian articles?

Kenring · 15-10-2010 09:53AM

Deep Easterly wrote: »

And mine Not really relishing the thought of a dry, mild & pointless winter ahead after the chronic lack of any interesting weather over the last year.

A storm means violent weather, usually with wind either as part of a squall or from a major Atlantic storm system.

Hmm..on the South island West Coast where they get 300 inches a year, 100mm in a day is not enough to put a coat on..:)

Elmo5 · 15-10-2010 10:09AM

Based on nothing but my own experience of El Nino and La Nina winters; La Nina seem to bring us the dry, cold and frosty ones. El Nino seem to bring mild and wet winters.

Last couple of years have been lucky because of the sun's low activity and I think that has influenced things, turning El Nino precip into some snow in Jan last year.

This year I think will be pretty cold, but I am not sure if we are going to get the precipitation to bring tons of snow.

As I said, only on my own experience and I have absolutely no weather forecasting qualifications!

Kenring · 15-10-2010 11:34AM

Elmo5 wrote: »

Based on nothing but my own experience of El Nino and La Nina winters; La Nina seem to bring us the dry, cold and frosty ones. El Nino seem to bring mild and wet winters.

Last couple of years have been lucky because of the sun's low activity and I think that has influenced things, turning El Nino precip into some snow in Jan last year.

This year I think will be pretty cold, but I am not sure if we are going to get the precipitation to bring tons of snow.

As I said, only on my own experience and I have absolutely no weather forecasting qualifications!

Of course there will be some cold, after all we are talking about winter. 1991 was an El Nino, high sunspot activity, peak of solar cycle, and that typically gives Ireland a mild winter. From a solar and a lunar viewpoint it compared favourably with the mild winter of 2008. 2009/2010 was just the opposite: low sunspot activity, end of solar minimum, moon more approaching mid declination point. Result; extreme cold. Now, as the sun stirs into life we have moved on, again towards the more normal milder winter with less precipitation. A strong La Nina, which has been developing since mid year, activates the Gulf Stream, with a buildup of warmer than usual water over the equatorial Atlantic, reaching well up into northern Atlantic waters. I believe there is no other conclusion possible, a less severe winter for Ireland than the last one.
Ken Ring
www.predictweather.com

nacho libre · 15-10-2010 11:47AM

Su Campu wrote: »

Is who right? Was that in one of the Italian articles?

sorry. yes it was a bit random. i read that post over on netweather yesterday . the poster was saying it's the reason we have the current weather pattern over us. i would have asked the poster directly, but for some reason i'm unable to post on that forum or send private messages

Speak Now · 15-10-2010 11:49AM

Kenring wrote: »

a less severe winter for Ireland than the last one.
Ken Ring
www.predictweather.com

Last winter was our coldest in almost 50 years so you're hardly pushing the boat out with that prediction :rolleyes:

Su Campu · 15-10-2010 12:13PM

nacho libre wrote: »

sorry. yes it was a bit random. i read that post over on netweather yesterday . the poster was saying it's the reason we have the current weather pattern over us. i would have asked the poster directly, but for some reason i'm unable to post on that forum or send private messages

Your name isn't Owen is it??!!

Speak Now · 15-10-2010 12:14PM

Su Campu wrote: »

Your name isn't Owen is it??!!

Or FrostyJoe

nacho libre · 15-10-2010 12:28PM

Su Campu wrote: »

Your name isn't Owen is it??!!

Damn.:p I thought by lowering my expectations for Coleraine and being altogether kinder to forum members, it would enable me to hoodwink you all. Alas i've been rumbled!

Deep Easterly · 15-10-2010 12:34PM

Kenring wrote: »

Hmm..on the South island West Coast where they get 300 inches a year, 100mm in a day is not enough to put a coat on..:)

Deep Easterly · 15-10-2010 01:04PM

While we all anticipate the forthcoming winter, here is a look back at the HIRLAM frontal analysis charts for last winter (1st December 2009 to 28th February 2010). It is interesting to see how the cold weather developed synoptically in mid December and how it sustained itself thoughtout the rest of the season.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9OsiOcZDRyw

All images c/o KNMI

nacho libre · 15-10-2010 01:26PM

Deep Easterly wrote: »

While we all anticipate the forthcoming winter, here is a look back at the HIRLAM frontal analysis charts for last winter (1st December 2009 to 28th February 2010). It is interesting to see how the cold weather developed synoptically in mid December and how it sustained itself thoughtout the rest of the season.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9OsiOcZDRyw

All images c/o KNMI

great post paddy1. it was nice to relive some memories there- the highlight from my perspective being the low that broke through in mid January, which signalled the end of the big freeze, yet caused snow in the west and northwest for 12 hours! i recall the radio forecaster at the time saying it was an exceptional event, because in normal circumstances it would have been a rain and wind event, but due to the sustained cold beforehand, the milder air was modified by residual cold air still over parts of the country!

snowstreams · 15-10-2010 03:14PM

nacho libre wrote: »

... the low that broke through in mid january which signalled the end of the big freeze, yet caused snow in the west and northwest for 12 hours!!

Yeah I remember the massive drifts that formed from the wind and snow in the inland parts of mayo & galway!
I wonder will we get any of that type of snow again this year

Min · 15-10-2010 04:11PM

The snowstorm/blizzard in January was a horrible kind of snow, we had real powdery snow before that, this snow was wet and it led to the satellite dish needing to be cleared of snow twice as it had stopped the signal.
It gave several inches of snow but not as bad as the end of March blizzard.

WolfeIRE · 15-10-2010 04:54PM

latest gfs shows atlantic sw pushing away the cold before a northerly wind takes control again at the end of the week (starting mon 25).

Confidence: low (based on G*S)

Kippure · 15-10-2010 07:51PM

Deep Easterly wrote: »

While we all anticipate the forthcoming winter, here is a look back at the HIRLAM frontal analysis charts for last winter (1st December 2009 to 28th February 2010). It is interesting to see how the cold weather developed synoptically in mid December and how it sustained itself thoughtout the rest of the season.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9OsiOcZDRyw

All images c/o KNMI

Thats was class the way the Temp Euro high linked to the scandi high, then moved west to link up to form a classic greenland high in mid december.

Kenring · 16-10-2010 02:29AM

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Last winter was our coldest in almost 50 years so you're hardly pushing the boat out with that prediction :rolleyes:

Correction, I am pushing the boat out. I have been saying all year that a milder winter is in store , vs most other forecasters who have been declaring that another extreme winter just like that last one is already in the bag.

It illustrates something about the human psyche. We are so easily spooked. When something extreme happens we often think it's going to be the pattern henceforth for all the foreseeable future. Really, it is a protective response called shock, which closes down objectivity. We saw it in Australia with the global warming argument two years ago. One very dry year and a severe drought on one State brings a media-crowing about drought setting in for the next 1000 years. When it rains two weeks later the "experts" and media suddenly change their minds.

In NZ we also saw it a month ago with the Christchurch 7.1 mag earthquake followed by over 1000 aftershocks. Now folk there think equally destructive earthquakes are going to come anytime soon. They do not realise that very few severe earthquakes revisit the scene of a former crime with the same intensity and destruction within a lifetime. In fact for that reason Christchurch is probably now the safest place to be. Likewise, Ireland may be one of the least likely places to get a winter repeat of 2009/10.

The trick is to train yourself to check each year on its own merits, and not compare to averages based on the solar calendar year, and not on their own wishlist or some group or peer consensual expectation.

Not targeting anyone on this forum, but often one dummy says something, the other dummies copy the first one, and then it gets widely reported as "scientists say.." and before you know it we're all paying some carbon or climate tax. They haven't thought of a Cold Tax yet, but they will if you give them enough rope!

Ken Ring
www.predictweather.com

yogidc26 · 16-10-2010 07:05AM

Kenring wrote: »

Correction, I am pushing the boat out. I have been saying all year that a milder winter is in store , vs most other forecasters who have been declaring that another extreme winter just like that last one is already in the bag.

It illustrates something about the human psyche. We are so easily spooked. When something extreme happens we often think it's going to be the pattern henceforth for all the foreseeable future. Really, it is a protective response called shock, which closes down objectivity. We saw it in Australia with the global warming argument two years ago. One very dry year and a severe drought on one State brings a media-crowing about drought setting in for the next 1000 years. When it rains two weeks later the "experts" and media suddenly change their minds.

In NZ we also saw it a month ago with the Christchurch 7.1 mag earthquake followed by over 1000 aftershocks. Now folk there think equally destructive earthquakes are going to come anytime soon. They do not realise that very few severe earthquakes revisit the scene of a former crime with the same intensity and destruction within a lifetime. In fact for that reason Christchurch is probably now the safest place to be. Likewise, Ireland may be one of the least likely places to get a winter repeat of 2009/10.
The trick is to train yourself to check each year on its own merits, and not compare to averages based on the solar calendar year, and not on their own wishlist or some group or peer consensual expectation.

Not targeting anyone on this forum, but often one dummy says something, the other dummies copy the first one, and then it gets widely reported as "scientists say.." and before you know it we're all paying some carbon or climate tax. They haven't thought of a Cold Tax yet, but they will if you give them enough rope!

Ken Ring
www.predictweather.com

I dont post to offen here but come on that is like saying it might rain but then again it might not. We all know that forcasting so far a head is nearly impossible and have to take with a pinch of salt what anyone says about a few months ahead.

Kenring · 16-10-2010 09:29AM

yogidc26 wrote: »

I dont post to offen here but come on that is like saying it might rain but then again it might not. We all know that forcasting so far a head is nearly impossible and have to take with a pinch of salt what anyone says about a few months ahead.

Incorrect. The question is, will it be a winter as bad/cold/heavy snow as last winter. It's a simple yes or no question. I'm saying the answer is no. Somehow from that you interpret I am saying both yes and no. I'll say it again in case you missed it. Mild winter, much less snow this time.
You say "we all know.." No we don't. I have a different view and I am part of the all.
Nearly impossible? According to whom?

thetonynator · 16-10-2010 10:38AM

Kenring wrote: »

Incorrect. The question is, will it be a winter as bad/cold/heavy snow as last winter. It's a simple yes or no question. I'm saying the answer is no. Somehow from that you interpret I am saying both yes and no. I'll say it again in case you missed it. Mild winter, much less snow this time.
You say "we all know.." No we don't. I have a different view and I am part of the all.
Nearly impossible? According to whom?

Thats not really a prediction, 9 out of 10 irish winters are mild and most with less snow than last year.

Kenring · 16-10-2010 11:01AM

thetonynator wrote: »

Thats not really a prediction, 9 out of 10 irish winters are mild and most with less snow than last year.

This is confusing, to say the least. Here in NZ any sentence that starts "I predict that..." is called a prediction. It is fairly easy to work out why. If equally I said "I guess.." around here we would call that a guess. Or if I said I think, why, that would be a thought! Voila! It is a straight forward system! So do please enlighten me on what would consititute a real prediction because on this board I would sincerely like to join other members in making them. What's more I have now read about 6 statements that claim to be predictions by different weather services, from Met Eirann to PWS and some on this board, all going for a worse winter than last year. Mine claims the exact opposite. Please kindly explain why mine is not really a prediction whilst theirs is.

regards
Ken Ring
www.predictweather.com

Redsunset · 16-10-2010 01:51PM

Nina EAST

Nina WEST:

Looks like we're all having a go at "predictions"

So here's mine.

Im going for the top chart,a cold and mostly dry anticyclonic influence centred roughly over germany kicking up a south easterly continental airflow.We could be sitting at the edge of this so with the atlantic trying to break through we could be seeing one or two territorial battles thus creating a heavy fall of snow in places.

Seems a plausible outcome as any, written by the so called "experts".
And no im not taking a swipe at any one on this forum.

I think the media are just being ridiculous lately with their snowmageddan portrayal of the coming winter all because of the last two.
Not too much Global warming on their Front pages at the moment,until the next hiccup that his.

Sensational rubbish will always grap attention unfortunately.
Rant over...........

thetonynator · 16-10-2010 02:42PM

Kenring wrote: »

This is confusing, to say the least. Here in NZ any sentence that starts "I predict that..." is called a prediction. It is fairly easy to work out why. If equally I said "I guess.." around here we would call that a guess. Or if I said I think, why, that would be a thought! Voila! It is a straight forward system! So do please enlighten me on what would consititute a real prediction because on this board I would sincerely like to join other members in making them. What's more I have now read about 6 statements that claim to be predictions by different weather services, from Met Eirann to PWS and some on this board, all going for a worse winter than last year. Mine claims the exact opposite. Please kindly explain why mine is not really a prediction whilst theirs is.

regards
Ken Ring
www.predictweather.com

Maybe i dont count it as a prediction as your predictions are generally for publicity. Remember the september snow prediction? (actually it was precipitation in sub zero temperatures which did not happen). anyway, you got great publicity out of it and nobody commented really when it didnt happen. Now you come out with a ''prediction'', a prediction that is very likely to happen. However you are only making this prediction because so many others are not. i.e., if everyone else was sayong a mild winter is on the way, you would be forecasting snow and a very cold winter.

Your predictions would generally have more accuracy if you put all the conditions on a sheet of paper and poked a pin at it with your eyes closed.

Maybe you should start doing that and stop claiming credit for events that happen within 2 weeks of when you predicted them . . .

I'd take the donegal postman word more seriously.

nacho libre · 16-10-2010 03:58PM

Kenring wrote: »

What's more I have now read about 6 statements that claim to be predictions by different weather services, from Met Eirann to PWS and some on this board, all going for a worse winter than last year.

regards
Ken Ring
www.predictweather.com

that's not quite correct Ken. Other weather services, like positive weather solutions and weatheroutlook, have predicted a cold winter, however they also stated the cold was unlikely to be as severe and sustained as last year. also I don't think anyone here has seriously predicted that the 2010/11 winter will be worst than last year. while some of us may wish it were, we all know that last year was most likely a once in 40- 50 year event in terms of sustained cold.

BEASTERLY · 16-10-2010 04:24PM

I remember hearing ken on today a few times , he is always predicting snow in may and june for ireland.

lol

Redsunset · 16-10-2010 04:52PM

Anyone see these mad headlines.

As another freezing winter looms, council hands out 2,000 spades and tells residents: 'Dig yourselves out when it snows'

Council chiefs have sparked outrage after proposing residents dig themselves out of the snow as Britain braces itself for another winter of Arctic conditions.

As long-range forecasts suggest the country will be hit by blizzards and temperatures plummeting to -20c, bosses at Camden Council prepared to hand out spades.

But their solution to the bitter weather has been slammed by those who remember the headache of last year's gritting crisis which brought widespread disruption and left people trapped in their homes.

Dig yourself out: Residents attempt to shovel ice from the road in Hartley Wintney, in Hampshire, in January. This winter is expected to bring similar conditions

The north London council's proposal involves a 'self-help' scheme in which people can ring and request a shovel.
The authority plans to give out more than 2,000 spades to community centres and groups, shopkeepers and families to help clear clogged-up roads and pavements

thetonynator · 16-10-2010 04:56PM

Anyone remember this? :P

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7MPRmOUxRMY

Min · 16-10-2010 07:08PM

I don't know why some weren't clearing pavements outside their homes in Dublin, I remember watching the news and there was a group of people standing doing nothing but complaining that the council weren't remvong the ice.
Hello, move to the countryside and wait for the council to do something....it would be a long wait.

I think people in towns and cities should be encouraged to clear snow and ice from the pavements outside their homes or business.

It would have been nice to have seen the politicians doing some work in the Dáil...

Winter 2010-2011 outlook

Comments