Winter 2010-2011 outlook

nacho libre

It seems to me he/she was predicting a fairly normal pattern of a zonal influence with some colder interludes. I don't see any reference to a blocking pattern and sustained cold in his/her post for the month of December. With this in mind, despite the revisionism by some, not many weather organisations anticipated such a cold winter for the UK and Ireland in 2009/10.
So WolfeIRE's point might be worth bearing in mind.

Wild Bill

Last night the dog howled at the sky in the direction of Orion. If you are looking for animal sings of the Winter ahead they come no clearer than that. :eek:

Wild Bill

And now look at the chart for today.......



When dog howls at the Pole Star in the house of Cassiopeia the world will shiver.....:eek:

Speak Now

NetWeather's winter forecast sounds perfect, below average rain and no mention of storms i can hope i guess.

WolfeIRE

For the next two weeks, the standard Atlantic maritime influence on our weather will struggle to get rid of colder northerly/NW/NE airflows.

As I pointed out at the weekend, the warmer uppers extending from the Atlantic are not extending much beyond the north of Ireland and Scotland. Up to Nov 4th on all models (which extend this far out) have colder air constantly pushing back the warmer Atlantic airmass.

At times colder air breaks through only to be pushed back by the warmer air. This battle of warm v cold scenario in the colder months of Jan and Feb would deliver a lot of snow to the country so I hope the trend continues. Hopefully it will, as it has been like this for at least 3-4 weeks.

I wonder also if there is anything that would tip the situation in the favour of colder air dominating. anyone?

pauldry

Last Winter I predicted a mild one.
This Winter I predict a mixture of cold and mild weather. Probably the normal Irish set up. Nothing exceptional.

So expect blizzards and storms galore.:D

Iancar29

Wild Bill wrote: »

Last night the dog howled at the sky in the direction of Orion. If you are looking for animal sings of the Winter ahead they come no clearer than that. :eek:

Haha thats funny... my dog only starting howling while out the bac ( without wanting to come in) there the other night! ....:D

nacho libre

WolfeIRE wrote: »

For the next two weeks, the standard Atlantic maritime influence on our weather will struggle to get rid of colder northerly/NW/NE airflows.

As I pointed out at the weekend, the warmer uppers extending from the Atlantic are not extending much beyond the north of Ireland and Scotland. Up to Nov 4th on all models (which extend this far out) have colder air constantly pushing back the warmer Atlantic airmass.

At times colder air breaks through only to be pushed back by the warmer air. This battle of warm v cold scenario in the colder months of Jan and Feb would deliver a lot of snow to the country so I hope the trend continues. Hopefully it will, as it has been like this for at least 3-4 weeks.

I wonder also if there is anything that would tip the situation in the favour of colder air dominating. anyone?

perhaps a collective snow dance by all the people using this forum, who want a snowy and cold winter?

also the nao staying negative- and will it be west or east based;
:la nina not undercutting a blocking high to the northwest of us
:the high not sinking it in over us, giving us faux cold/surface cold.
: Continued low solar activity,
: favourable surface sea tempetaures
:the jet stream parking it as far south as possible over the winter months.

from what the experts are saying, they seem to be doubtful of major warming in the stratosphere this winter(though they might have thought the same last year), but this winter could prove that a negative nao and a buckled jet, or preferably it sodding off well to the south of Ireland , could produce a decent winter for snow addicts in Ireland.

Lumi

nacho libre wrote: »

perhaps a collective snow dance by all the people using this forum, who want a snowy and cold winter?

Yep! Time to dust off Redsunset's Snow Dance guide ...
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=64353747

derekon

Fionagus wrote: »

Berwick swans have arrived in England 3 weeks earlier than last year. It's supposed to indicate a harsh winter's on the way though to be honest its probably more of a reflection of likely conditions in Siberia
http://www.independent.ie/and-finally/arrival-of-swans-sparks-winter-fear-2384431.html

Very interesting indeed.

Animals have a "gut" instint about the seasons so to hear of these swans arriving in England 3 weeks earlier than last year can only bode well for a cold winter.

I have also just had a look at the latest GFS and although mild air will break through on Friday , it is set to be replaced by colder air for mid Saturday, Sunday and most of Monday.

For some reason (maybe a negative NAO), the Atlantic influence on Irish weather seems to be reducing over the past number of weeks with colder northerlys an easterlys kicking in. If we get this pattern during the winter , we could be in for a cold one !

Derek

WolfeIRE

The seas to our north and northwest must be cooling down quicker than normal for this time of year because of this blocking system that has been keeping the atlantic at bay during october. The NAO suggestion thrown up some people does make sense and I have no doubt we are in for a lot of wintry precip next month and during this winter if this trend continues. atlantic fronts meeting a colder airmass that has been in place for quite some time!!

km79

are we likely to see repeat lo last November's rain and flooding:(

Su Campu

The seas around us are all warmer than normal, especially the Greenland and Norwegian Seas, where we would like out Arctic blasts to originate. This needs to change

Pangea

Michael gallagher the postman was on tv today for anyone thats interested go to 4:40 and see his interview.

http://www.rte.ie/player/#v=1083029

Slimity

Pangea wrote: »

Michael gallagher the postman was on tv today for anyone thats interested go to 4:40 and see his interview.

http://www.rte.ie/player/#v=1083029

Interesting that he sees signs of a harsh winter again.

Su Campu

Aye, a wee but of a harsh wunter alrayt.

Wild Bill

My God I stopped at Joe "€500k-per-year-of-taxpayer-money" Duffy eulogising James Connolly and, sorry, I threw up and could go no further. :mad:

So what did the old guy predict?

nacho libre

Wild Bill wrote: »

My God I stopped at Joe "€500k-per-year-of-taxpayer-money" Duffy eulogising James Connolly and, sorry, I threw up and could go no further. :mad:

So what did the old guy predict?

he said it was too early to call, but he said there was some indications that it might be another harsh winter.

Pangea

Su Campu wrote: »

Aye, a wee but of a harsh wunter alrayt.

A man from kildare is in no position to be mocking accents :pac::pac:

Deep Easterly

Where did he say that a harsh winter is on the way?? He just said that flower growing in October is not a good sign - that could mean anything!

Pangea

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Where did he say that a harsh winter is on the way?? He just said that flower growing in October is not a good sign - that could mean anything!

He said that he was concerned about the winter coming and that the flowers growing is not a good sign, in other words the signs so far are pointing towards a harsh winter.

eskimocat

I would have often heard my Granda (donegal man) talking about the signs of a harsh winter to come. He was very interested in the weather and I have caught the 'bug' from him.

He was rarely wrong and occasionally would argue away to the radio when the met eireann forecast was on.
I am so sorry that I didn't note down his nature tips on weather to come before he passed. Some seem similar to what the post man was talking about.

Interesting to see if he is right again this year!

Su Campu

Pangea wrote: »

A man from kildare is in no position to be mocking accents :pac::pac:

North Co. Dublin actually, I'm only a blow-in here!

Pangea

Su Campu wrote: »

North Co. Dublin actually, I'm only a blow-in here!

Well your definitely in no position to be mocking accents then haha

eskimocat

Pangea wrote: »

He said that he was concerned about the winter coming and that the flowers growing is not a good sign, in other words the signs so far are pointing towards a harsh winter.

I agree, I think it might be the accent that is confusing them all, we knew clearly what he was talking about Pangea yeah? lol

Deep Easterly

Pangea wrote: »

He said that he was concerned about the winter coming and that flower growing is not a good sign, in other words the signs so far are pointing towards a harsh winter.

Wide, but he could mean a stormy mild winter too, which would be harsh weather. Playing his cards close to his chest me thinks.

Su Campu

Speaking of Donegal, here's the DMI's seasonal forecast for Greenland, just a bit further up to the northwest! :pac:

A couple of degrees above normal, which wont help things when it comes to establishing a winter-long 1060hPa High in the area, to feed the northerlies down this way. :rolleyes:

I still find it hard to believe that nature predicts anything, it can of course, indicate what the recent past weather conditions have been, most humans have lost that ability as we are isolated from the real environment! (live in houses, wear clothes etc)

Most of these types of predictions are based on long memories and remembering what happened the last time such weather patterns occurred and assuming the current season will follow the same path.

Pangea

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Wide, but he could mean a stormy mild winter too, which would be harsh weather. Playing his cards close to his chest me thinks.

Honestly now come on lol hes not talking about stormy mild weather, you dont need to be a einstein to understand what he was saying. All the signs he was talking about in that interview about the sheep being hungry etc. he was referring to cold winters. Hence him saying the signs so far was not good.

Pangea

Deleted User wrote: »

I still find it hard to believe that nature predicts anything,.

Why wouldnt nature be able to predict anything? Seagulls fly inland when they feel a storm coming, I see it often myself hundred of seagulls flying inland while its calm before the storm. I dont see why people think its hard to believe, animals live outside and they have to live off the land and trees so they have a closer sense of what nature is bringing than we do.
Birds can sense cold weather , if the berries are taken from the trees early then its a sign they are stocking up for the winter ahead.
Its really not hard to believe if you get your head around it.