Winter 2010-2011 outlook

Harps

As far as I know its mandatory in Germany to clear the pavement around your own house whenever theres snow.

Really annoyed me last year with everyone complaining when it takes 5 minutes if you clear it before it compacts, we cleared and gritted our area every time it snowed but it made little difference as half the neighbours did nothing and once it compacted it was like an ice rink all winter

peasant

redsunset wrote: »

As long-range forecasts suggest the country will be hit by blizzards and temperatures plummeting to -20c, bosses at Camden Council prepared to hand out spades.

A spade is just about the most useless implement for moving snow ever. You can hack some ice with it, but that's about it. A snow shovel needs to be wide and have a long handle. The idea is to place it on the ground and then walk behind and push the snow on the shovel, pushing the snow in front of you like a plow. You only start shovelling when it gets too much and you can't push it anymore. (Just in case people are thinking about getting spades now)

yogidc26

Min wrote: »

I don't know why some weren't clearing pavements outside their homes in Dublin, I remember watching the news and there was a group of people standing doing nothing but complaining that the council weren't remvong the ice.
Hello, move to the countryside and wait for the council to do something....it would be a long wait.

I think people in towns and cities should be encouraged to clear snow and ice from the pavements outside their homes or business.

It would have been nice to have seen the politicians doing some work in the Dáil...

I did this last year and then when the sun went down the path iced over again, When my next door neighbor came out to get her kids she thought that it was fine to walk on she ended up in hospital with wiplash. It was not nice tell her it was me that cleared the path

thetonynator

Sometimes, unless youre going to salt or grit the path, the resulting ice is worse than the snow before it . .

Harps

Yeah just throw a bit of sand over it afterwards

The ice is worse at night but if you leave it and the snow compacts it becomes literally impossible to walk on so its still better to do it

peasant

btw ...ashes from the fire leave a really nice, grippy surface on ice (and a bit of a mess afterwards ...but safety first)

nacho libre

peasant wrote: »

btw ...ashes from the fire leave a really nice, grippy surface on ice (and a bit of a mess afterwards ...but safety first)

i do that as well.

Kenring

thetonynator wrote: »

Maybe i dont count it as a prediction as your predictions are generally for publicity. ...you got great publicity out of it. Now you come out with a ''prediction'', a prediction that is very likely to happen. However you are only making this prediction because so many others are not. .

What a strange thing to say. Do I run the media then? I don't know who quotes me, and I do my work for those who find it useful. I have no control over media reports, some of which misquote me severely and it turns up here as what I was supposed to have said and didn't.
The other point is nonsense. How can both be true - the prediction is "fairly likely to happen" but many others are saying it will not. (????)

thetonynator

Kenring wrote: »

What a strange thing to say. Do I run the media then? I don't know who quotes me, and I do my work for those who find it useful. I have no control over media reports, some of which misquote me severely and it turns up here as what I was supposed to have said and didn't.
The other point is nonsense. How can both be true - the prediction is "fairly likely to happen" but many others are saying it will not. (????)

I suppose you had no control over what you said when you were interviewed on today fm?? the producer was standing there holding a knife to your neck telling you to predict snow or else?

the vast majority of irish winters are mild, you're not exactly doing anything groundbreaking here predicting a mild winter . . .:rolleyes:

Kenring

thetonynator wrote: »

I suppose you had no control over what you said when you were interviewed on today fm?? the producer was standing there holding a knife to your neck telling you to predict snow or else?

the vast majority of irish winters are mild, you're not exactly doing anything groundbreaking here predicting a mild winter . . .:rolleyes:

Well then, it's obviously too groundbreaking for the others because they're still saying the opposite.. you keep contradicting yourself man

thetonynator

Kenring wrote: »

Well then, it's obviously too groundbreaking for the others because they're still saying the opposite.. you keep contradicting yourself man

I'll keep contradicting myself, the weather will keep contradicting you.

WolfeIRE

I have been thinking about the following point for a couple of weeks and am still struggling to articulate so apologies in advance if it is confusing. Those who read gfs, ecm etc may have an idea what i am on about.

Basically, i am referring to a less aggressive atlantic system than previous years which may signal something for the coming winter.

Looking at the long term models in the past four weeks I have noticed a pattern that is different to the previous two years (the time i have been looking at the models).

Around this time of year the warmer Atlantic air mass, when it breaks through, tends to shunt colder air over Ireland and the UK away with ease. The warmer 850hPa uppers have always moved NE usually and extended many hundreds if not thousands of miles to our north and east.

In the past 6-8 weeks the extremities of the Atlantic systems, when they do sweep over us and replace colder air mass, do not extend much beyond the north of the island of Ireland and east coast of Britain. This has happened on at least three occasions and each time the warmer uppers have been eventually been beaten back by an easterly/north easterly flow to be followed by a northerly wind flow.

I have no way of comparing the past 6-8 weeks to anything other than 2009 and 2008 but they are certainly showing something different in terms of the potency of our 'gulfstream effect' climate.

I have read about a possible slowing down and cooling of the Gulf Stream but i would not be knowledgeable enough to suggest a direct link between such a probability and less influential Atlantic weather systems on NW Europe, which i have alluded to above.

However, I am noticing that the Atlantic is not as active or influential on our climate/weather in recent weeks and the coming weeks as in the corresponding periods during 2008 and 2009.

thetonynator

@Wolfe

The atlantic has had very few periods when it broke through consistantly for more than a week or so since last november. Apart from some of July that is.

Could be a good sign for the winter, or could be a sign that this really isn't going to last much longer and we're set for front after front of rain and mild temps . . .

WolfeIRE

thetonynator wrote: »

@Wolfe
Could be a good sign for the winter, or could be a sign that this really isn't going to last much longer and we're set for front after front of rain and mild temps . . .

July brought us full frontal assaults from the west and SW alright Tony but besides it has been less aggressive than previous years. My main point though is the extremities of systems when they do break through.

the below being a case in point


The above (i know it's a week out but it's an example of what has been happening) is happening on a regular basis. Atalntic systems, which in previous years would have swept many hundreds of miles to our north and south with us in between jumpoing in puddles, is now struggling to extend much beyond our northern coastline.

thetonynator

Not even getting to our northern coastline in that example!!! Well if they'd go a few hundred miles less and not get to our southern coastline for the winter it would be great!!!

Su Campu

I think a more negative NAO could be the reason for this. With high pressure in the north Atlantic, this leads to a more northwesterly steering flow over us, as opposed to a more southwesterly flow with a positive NAO. This means we get situations like your chart above, where the isotherms are aligned with the isohypses, resulting in little advection one way or the other.

Kenring

WolfeIRE wrote: »

I have been thinking about the following point for a couple of weeks and am still struggling to articulate so apologies in advance if it is confusing. Those who read gfs, ecm etc may have an idea what i am on about.

Basically, i am referring to a less aggressive atlantic system than previous years which may signal something for the coming winter.

Looking at the long term models in the past four weeks I have noticed a pattern that is different to the previous two years (the time i have been looking at the models).

Around this time of year the warmer Atlantic air mass, when it breaks through, tends to shunt colder air over Ireland and the UK away with ease. The warmer 850hPa uppers have always moved NE usually and extended many hundreds if not thousands of miles to our north and east.

In the past 6-8 weeks the extremities of the Atlantic systems, when they do sweep over us and replace colder air mass, do not extend much beyond the north of the island of Ireland and east coast of Britain. This has happened on at least three occasions and each time the warmer uppers have been eventually been beaten back by an easterly/north easterly flow to be followed by a northerly wind flow.

I have no way of comparing the past 6-8 weeks to anything other than 2009 and 2008 but they are certainly showing something different in terms of the potency of our 'gulfstream effect' climate.

I have read about a possible slowing down and cooling of the Gulf Stream but i would not be knowledgeable enough to suggest a direct link between such a probability and less influential Atlantic weather systems on NW Europe, which i have alluded to above.

However, I am noticing that the Atlantic is not as active or influential on our climate/weather in recent weeks and the coming weeks as in the corresponding periods during 2008 and 2009.

What is confusing is that some say the Gulf Stream is slowing, creating cold northwards, others that it is speeding up, bringing warmer waters and air northwards before it has a chance to cool from Arctic systems. I believe both are red herrings. The key is in the average monthly speed of the moon between hemispheres, which is an apsidal function. The end of October may see some very cold temperatures in some places for this reason.

Unlike last winter, this winter sees a very much slower moon around northern declination, meaning Arctic windflows stalling, thus allowing the Gulf Stream to bring warmer conditions further north. So it matters not what the Gulf Stream speed is, and mainstream science may be looking, as is common, in the wrong place. They should be looking at not at the Gulf Stream but the combination of moon speed and moon timing of declination.

It was the same with the Russian heatwave. In August the perigee new moon was on the cusp of changing hemispheres, trekking from north to south since 6 August, drawing weather southwards. This draws the jetstream southwards. And the result was the type of flooding rains that have occurred in Pakistan and other equatorial regions, like S China, that get summer monsoons. On 6 August, on the exact day the moon started coming S, East Germany received intense rain and flooding.

On the other hand, Russia is a long way from the equator and MISSES that lower jetstream, because the range of the moon's hemisphere change is only 28°N to 28°S, and when the jetstream dives S it displaces masses of high pressure north, so Russia copped it.
Here's an example: The Russian heatwave of 2007 occurred right at the end of May, from May 27 to June. The perigee NM started moving S after May 20 in that year, displacing high pressure to the north, and the build-up of heat to the ground took a few days to develop and they got a heatwave. So did Greece, and they had massive widespread fires there.

This same jet stream pattern led to flooding in the UK during June and July 2007, and to wet summers over western Europe in both 2008 and 2009. In June and July 2007 and throughout the summers of 2008 and 2009 new moon was perigeal. The pattern began in 2007 because in mid June of 2007 new moon was perigeal, whereas in June 2006 new moon was not perigeal. In July of 2007 Russia also experienced heatwaves, and particularly Greece, which suffered widespread fires. Even in 2007, South-East Europe's heat and the UK's wet weather were both blamed on changes in the jet stream - which had taken a more southerly path across Europe that year.

During El Nino, precipitation usually increases where the N polar jet stream moves farther south and brings more storms with it and the S polar stream moves north. Conversely, during La Nina events, WHICH WE HAVE NOW, in the N hem the polar jet stream moves more NORTH and in the S hem the S polar stream moves more to the south. So what does that tell us? Less cold coming from the north, that's what!

For full moon to be perigeal, which changes the trend and the position of the jetstream, we'll have to wait until N hem summer of 2012.

So take your eyes off the Gulf Stream lads and lassies, and fix y'eyes on that there moon.

yogidc26

yogidc26 wrote: »

I did this last year and then when the sun went down the path iced over again, When my next door neighbor came out to get her kids she thought that it was fine to walk on she ended up in hospital with wiplash. It was not nice tell her it was me that cleared the path

The number one reason why people are reluctant to clear paths! the fear of being sued if (when) it ices up afterwards and someone gets hurt.

Redsunset

Interesting last 90 days,plenty of height rises to our North which are definately indicative of a negative NAO. Long may it last.




This would also explain what Wolfe has been questioning,and has already been answered.

derekon

redsunset wrote: »

Interesting last 90 days,plenty of height rises to our North which are definately indicative of a negative NAO. Long may it last.




This would also explain what Wolfe has been questioning,and has already been answered.

Forgive my ignorance but if this negative NAO continues, does this mean we could be in for a colder than average winter?

Derek

Su Campu

derekon wrote: »

Forgive my ignorance but if this negative NAO continues, does this mean we could be in for a colder than average winter?

Derek

In general, yes, it usually means colder weather for northwestern Europe, as the polar jet gets knocked southwards, bringing the winter storms to Iberia and the Med.

Redsunset

A negative NAO is one of the essential ingredients of a colder than normal winter,however there's more to it than that.

Lets just say myself and many others will be keeping a close eye on it.

I post this again,

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/teleintro.shtml

derekon

Thanks to both Su Campu and Red Sunset for the explanation on the NAO

Is there any website that monitors the NAO and if so, is there a particular "number" the NAO should be under which demonstrated the gulf stream is heading further south towards Iberia , North Africa?

Derek

Redsunset

derekon wrote: »

Thanks to both Su Campu and Red Sunset for the explanation on the NAO

Is there any website that monitors the NAO and if so, is there a particular "number" the NAO should be under which demonstrated the gulf stream is heading further south towards Iberia , North Africa?

Derek

I gave you one.
Don't be afraid to click on the blue parts:)

Jet stream not gulf stream

Su Campu

Interesting that the average J/F/M has been following a multidecadal pattern, reaching a peak in the 90s, and is now on a downward fall.

derekon

redsunset wrote: »

I gave you one.
Don't be afraid to click on the blue parts:)

Jet stream not gulf stream

Apologies Red Sunset, oversight on my part
Thanks for the reply, appreciated.

Derek

Redsunset

A classic by Bob Dylan,

For THE TIMES THEY ARE A CHANGING folks.

Interesting second graph Su.

Says it all really.

Min

Su Campu wrote: »

Interesting that the average J/F/M has been following a multidecadal pattern, reaching a peak in the 90s, and is now on a downward fall.

I am just wondering with the last graph if it is an indication that the NAO goes in patterns, I mean you had a period from the early 1950's to early 1970's where it was in negative territory.
Did this lead to predictions of a coming ice age, I will make myself sound old but I'm not that old, but when I was going to primary school it was talk of a coming ice age that prevailed before it changed to global warming before it changed again to the present climate change.

The positive NAO coincides with some very warm periods which led to CO2 being blamed, is all this a coincidence?

I hope I made sense lol

WolfeIRE

the scenario of warmer uppers failing to extend much further north than our northen coastline are again showing in long range forecast.

Thanks su and red for NAO explanation which does make sense.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=72&mode=1&runpara=0

Redsunset

The future can only be one outcome in my eyes.:D

Just look at the NAO singing from same Hymn sheet as ENSO phases