Winter 2010-2011 outlook

I have the biggest smile on my face reading that forecast M.T. ! The snow in 81/82 was sooooooooooooo good :D:D

Weather of December 1981
Snowiest of 20th century



Over twenty years ago Britain had one of the coldest and snowiest months of the last century. Severe weather is rarer in December than it is in January and February, but December 1981 was a truly exceptional month. The night of the 12th-13th was a record-breaker as the mercury plunged below minus 18C widely, while a large part of the country was snowbound for more than three weeks.

There was little sign of what was to come as the month opened. The early days were very mild and a maximum of 15C was reported from Aberdeen on the 3rd. Changes began the next day as the wind veered N'ly bringing snow showers to Scotland, but the very cold weather did not reach central and southern parts of the UK until the night of the 7th-8th when the temperature fell below freezing and heavy snow fell widely. Some 15cm fell in Wiltshire, Berkshire and the northern Home Counties, and with inadequate warnings road and rail transport was seriously dislocated, airports were closed, and electricity and telephone services were disr upted for thousands of customers.

Most exceptionally cold winters are characterised by long spells of dry and sunny weather punctuated by occasional snowfalls; December 1981 was different, with widespread and heavy snow occurring at regular intervals throughout the month. The second snowstorm on the 11th also hit southern England worst, paralysing roads and railways, and leaving 25-30cm of snow in total in some of the London suburbs. Just two days later a fierce blizzard swept England, Wales and Northern Ireland on the 13th, persisting over much of Scotland and northern England on the 14th where the Yorkshire Dales were buried under a metre of snow. Even the Queen did not escape - she was stranded for several hours in a Cotswold pub. Two ships foundered in the English Channel, sea-defences were breached along the Bristol Channel, and some homes in Somerset were without electricity for five days after.

Further snow affected high ground in the West Country on the16th, northern Scotland on the 17th, and much of central and eastern England on the 20th-21st. After this fall snow lay 33cm deep in and around Lincoln and 10 inches deep in north London. High winds again caused havoc in our coastal waters, and on the 19th the Penlee lifeboat capsized as it went to the aid of a crippled cargo ship off the Cornish coast with a total of 16 lives lost. After a fine, frosty Christmas Day another belt of snow travelled eastwards across the country on the 27th, but thereafter a general thaw set in.

In the brief interlude between the snowstorms of the 11th and 13th much of England was gripped by a frost of unprecedented intensity. At RAF Shawbury in Shropshire the temperature sank to minus 22.6C at daybreak on the 12th, climbed only to minus 12.1C that afternoon, then plummeted to minus 25.2C during the early hours of the 13th.














Bloody hell dec and Jan were marginal,and thats when we get the best snowfall.







The greatest disruption occurred on the 8th and 9th when an Atlantic depression moved into the Southwest Approaches; heavy snow accompanied by a gale force easterly wind produced one of the most severe blizzards of the century across southern England, the Midlands, Wales and Ireland. Throughout the snowfall, which lasted over 36 hours, temperatures were between -2 and -4C so the snow was dry and powdery and drifted freely in the wind.

Transport services were completely dislocated over a wide area and millions of commuters failed to get to work in London two days running. South Wales was isolated for three days and troops were brought in to deliver essentials and to help clear roads. Worst hit were Gloucestershire, Monmouthshire and Glamorgan, where level snow lay over 60cm deep with drifts 6 metres high. Milder air reached Cornwall and south Devon, but heavy rain falling onto frozen ground in mid-Devon, south Somerset and west Dorset created extensive glazed ice in these areas.

Following the blizzard the cold tightened its grip. Early on the morning of the 10th the temperature fell to -26.1C at Newport in Shropshire, breaking the record for England which had been set just four weeks earlier. In Scotland, Braemar recorded -27.2C on the same morning, equalling the UK's all-time record which had been set way back in 1895. The afternoon maximum temperature at Braemar was -19.1C, another new record. As far south as Wiltshire daytime maxima below -10C were recorded on the 13th as freezing fog blanketed many areas.


Warmer weather returned after mid-month and the rest of the winter was mild and snow-free.

Living in Kilkenny, if in the city you mightn't see much snow, up on the hills you get snow regularly during the winter unless it is one of those unusually mild winters - however you will always get snow at some point.

We got loads of snow last winter, down in the city they didn't get much and the distance was about 5 or 6 miles.
The end of March was a great example, a real proper blizzard with blinding snow, you could measure snow in feet, in Kilkenny city they had rain.
Took several days for the snow to melt on the hills.

Another cold winter ahead?





It's the time of the year when there is always a lot of interest in winter forecasts, more so than in previous years, largely as a result of what happened last winter - which as we all know was the coldest for over 30 years.

And once again, a colder than average winter looks the most likely outcome based on the latest projections.
The latest American model is shown below.


The winter season is shown as colder than average - indicating that a 'blocked' weather pattern is on average likely to dominate with the jet stream further south than normal. The American model successfully predicted last winters' cold conditions.

The Met Office don't issue their seasonal forecast to the general public anymore, using them for internal research purposes only, but as I understand it, their forecast also suggests that the probability of a cold winter is higher than normal.

It would seem that one of the reasons for a higher probability of another cold winter is down to a forecast negative NAO (North Atlantic oscillation).

The NAO is a way of describing pressure patterns in the Atlantic.
Climatologically, a low-pressure system over Iceland and a high-pressure system over the Azores determine that westerly winds prevail across western Europe. The relative strength and position of these systems varies from year to year; this variation is known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

A large difference in the pressure at the two stations (a high or positive NAO) leads to increased westerlies and mild and wet winters across the UK and Northwest Europe.

In contrast, if the index is low (negative NAO) westerlies are suppressed, and the UK and Europe suffer cold winters as the jet stream steers depressions through Spain and Portugal and into the Mediterranean.
The forecast NAO is calculated using a formula which incorporates sea surface temperature anomalies in Spring and early Summer.

But a negative NAO does not always mean a cold winter here.
For example, in the past, a negative NAO has been a successful indicator of a cold winter across Continent Europe - but with the UK right on the edge of milder air from the Atlantic, with a resulting battle between mild and wet weather from the west, and much colder weather further east.
Of course readers by now know that the ongoing low solar activity, and the previous protracted solar cycle all suggest a higher than normal probability of a blocked winter weather pattern leading to colder than average weather conditions.

There are of course no guarantees with long range forecasts, but It could be another very interesting winter if latest projections prove to be correct.