Freezing Weather Discussion - Widespread Snow Tonight/Tuesday

Zzippy · 04-01-2010 5:10pm

Light rain in Galway. That's just going to freeze and make the roads worse. Argh! Prefer snow or nothing any day...

maquiladora · 04-01-2010 5:10pm

grandmaster wrote: »

Where do you live as I want to move there?

Waterford, the no snow zone. :pac:

Defcol · 04-01-2010 5:11pm

So whats the outlook for Navan/Midlands area for tonight and tomorrow morning? Is the prediticted snow threat now a pipe dream?

G-Money · 04-01-2010 5:11pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Waterford, the no snow zone. :pac:

Beginning to pack...

Timistry · 04-01-2010 5:14pm

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

Whoops: I was about to post that Snowaddict! Damn you:p

The compromise outcome on the PL would be for something very like that FAX chart, but perhaps it would take a more SW track avoiding much of Scotland but would still manage to affect the western half of Ireland at first. Where it would go from my landfall guess of NW Donegal is beyond me though. So is its intensity. What I'm most hopeful about is the isobar gradients which are good I think, or certainly better than I feared. Cold air rapidly moving over warmer waters en route here, would certainly help its longevity.

You can see it here advancing towards the Faeroe Islands. http://www.yr.no/satellitt/1.5941760

Will it reach the far south and be potent enough to deliver at low-levels if conditions are right?

WolfeIRE · 04-01-2010 5:15pm

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

Whoops: I was about to post that Snowaddict! Damn you:p

The compromise outcome on the PL would be for something very like that FAX chart, but perhaps it would take a more SW track avoiding much of Scotland but would still manage to affect the western half of Ireland at first. Where it would go from my landfall guess of NW Donegal is beyond me though. So is its intensity. What I'm most hopeful about is the isobar gradients which are good I think, or certainly better than I feared. Cold air rapidly moving over warmer waters en route here, would certainly help its longevity.

You can see it here advancing towards the Faeroe Islands. http://www.yr.no/satellitt/1.5941760

TBC and anyone else....what do you make of that long cloud tail behind the system (part of the system). Is it possible for that to wrap around the front end and develop the system into a polar Low? If not, if it continues its path to Ireland is it not likely to result on an extended period of precip?

Figuramatyi · 04-01-2010 5:15pm

Zzippy wrote: »

Light rain in Galway. That's just going to freeze and make the roads worse. Argh! Prefer snow or nothing any day...

I did see snowflakes... what part are you in? Down close to water?

pistolpetes11 · 04-01-2010 5:17pm

Melanoma wrote: »

Yep but if you farm the land there you need to live there. Would be against folks moving there for the scenery and then expecting lots of help when its bad but it might be an idea for the army to get some of the elderly out of there till supply routes are open. This is a very long duration freeze and despite agreeing with the sentiment of your reply remember that we live in a humane country were being clever is not the same as being wise.

I am nearly a 100% the person in question is not farming the land, a published writer if I am correct.

I know that we live in humane country , I just just felt the persons needs would be best served at lower elevations.

Zzippy · 04-01-2010 5:18pm

Figuramatyi wrote: »

I did see snowflakes... what part are you in? Down close to water?

In the city. Was very brief, hopefully not enough to cause problems with ice. Wouldn't mind a good belt of snow though!

Villain · 04-01-2010 5:23pm

umm

G-Money · 04-01-2010 5:24pm

Are there any good (reliable) sites out there for long term forecasts? It would be nice to know when this cold spell is going to end. It seems to be expected to last until the weekend at least.

maquiladora · 04-01-2010 5:24pm

Villain wrote: »

umm

:rolleyes: More rain for me so...

Defcol · 04-01-2010 5:24pm

Defcol wrote: »

So whats the outlook for Navan/Midlands area for tonight and tomorrow morning? Is the prediticted snow threat now a pipe dream?

Anyone?

A Dub in Glasgo · 04-01-2010 5:25pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Waterford, the no snow zone. :pac:

To be fair I lived in Waterford for a bit and had one memorable couple of days with loads of snow (1990 I think)

Johnny1999 · 04-01-2010 5:25pm

Just been out lamp post watching, and it is starting to flurry!:)

maquiladora · 04-01-2010 5:27pm

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

To be fair I lived in Waterford for a bit and had one memorable couple of days with loads of snow (1990 I think)

Ah yeah, the odd once or twice in a lifetime event. :pac: I'm still hoping we might see one over the next couple of days, but I have my doubts...

pistolpetes11 · 04-01-2010 5:27pm

grandmaster wrote: »

Are there any good (reliable) sites out there for long term forecasts? It would be nice to know when this cold spell is going to end. It seems to be expected to last until the weekend at least.

No such thing as "reliable" and "long term" in weather forecasting .

I reckon about March it should start to warm up

Purely speculative though.

maquiladora · 04-01-2010 5:28pm

Defcol wrote: »

Anyone?

Hard to know to be honest.

Snowaddict · 04-01-2010 5:28pm

The latest UKMO T+36 Fax Chart is Excellent IMO, especially for those in the East & Southeast..

With a very cold and unstable Northeasterly airflow, combined with that area of low pressure cented in the Southern Irish Sea - there could potentially be quite a few snow showers generated on it's northern periphery affecting the East and Southeast.

A very interesting development from what I can see.

SA

Mental Mickey · 04-01-2010 5:28pm

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

No such thing as "reliable" and "long term" in weather forecasting .

I reckon about March it should start to warm up

Purely speculative though.

Hahhahahahahaah

lucernarian · 04-01-2010 5:29pm

WolfeIRE wrote: »

TBC and anyone else....what do you make of that long cloud tail behind the system (part of the system). Is it possible for that to wrap around the front end and develop the system into a polar Low? If not, if it continues its path to Ireland is it not likely to result on an extended period of precip?

As for identifying the long cloud tail, I think that's the remains of the occluded front which the PL formed from (the baroclinic zone). I don't think it will form into anything bigger, but I'm definitely open to correction on this.

Deep Easterly · 04-01-2010 5:32pm

Cloudy and frosty here. Temp currently at 0.7c. Wind light variable. (currently SSW in direction)

owenc · 04-01-2010 5:37pm

ugh here we goo agai back into horrior hill! temp has risen here to 0c and it is clouding ovre how long is this warm period ment to last ( is it at the front of the front or the whole way through) ugh im so angry and depressed ugh!...........

snow ghost · 04-01-2010 5:38pm

Could anyone be good enough to enlighten me as to why that M1 Bouy never has any readings on the reports???

Is it dead... sunk... decommissioned???

Su Campu · 04-01-2010 5:39pm

Just to get things straight guys, the polar low hasn't formed yet....that cloud off Norway is just a complex depression.

And I think people are losing the run of themselves a bit about getting snow tonight. There will be very little snow at low levels tonight, mostly rain or sleet. The real cold arrives tomorrow morning.

Western Scotland has only rain or sleet showers at low levels at the moment.

12_UKMet_Boden+00.gif

It's a pretty miserable day in the Faroe Islands, with whiteout conditions reported the last few hours.

EKVG 041652Z 35021G31KT 6000 -SHSN BLSN BKN030CB M01/M03 Q1017 RMK WIND 850FT 35029G48KT 310V020
EKVG 041550Z 36024G36KT 9999 VCSH BKN035CB M01/M05 Q1018 RMK WIND 850FT 35036G51KT
[FONT=Monospace,Courier]EKVG 041450Z 36017KT 9999 BLSN BKN035CB M02/M04 Q1018 RMK WIND 850FT 36025G36KT 330V040[/FONT]
[FONT=Monospace,Courier]EKVG 041350Z 35022KT 0400 R13///// R31///// SHRASN BLSN VV006 M03/M05 Q1018 RMK WIND 850FT 34017G39KT 280V050[/FONT]
[FONT=Monospace,Courier]EKVG 041340Z 35027KT 0400 R13///// R31///// SHRASN BLSN VV006 M03/M05 Q1019 RMK WIND 850FT 35034G49KT[/FONT]
[FONT=Monospace,Courier]EKVG 041250Z 36018KT 9999 BLSN BKN035CB M02/M05 Q1019 RMK WIND 850FT 36028G43KT[/FONT]
[FONT=Monospace,Courier]EKVG 041150Z 35021G35KT 4000 -SHSN BLSN VV008 M02/M06 Q1019 RMK WIND 850FT 35034G51KT[/FONT]
[FONT=Monospace,Courier]EKVG 041051Z 35023G33KT 8000 VCSH FEW025CB BKN035 M01/M05 Q1020 RMK WIND 850FT 36029G44KT 330V030[/FONT]
[FONT=Monospace,Courier]EKVG 040952Z 36021G31KT 9999 SCT025CB BKN040 M01/M04 Q1020 RMK WIND 850FT 35036G49KT[/FONT]
[FONT=Monospace,Courier]EKVG 040920Z 36023KT 2000 SHSN VV010 M02/M04 Q1020 RMK WIND 850FT 35032G51KT 320V020[/FONT]
[FONT=Monospace,Courier]EKVG 040850Z 35028G39KT 9999 VCSH FEW015CB BKN040 M01/M04 Q1020 RMK WIND 850FT 35038G53KT[/FONT]
[FONT=Monospace,Courier]EKVG 040823Z 35025G37KT 9999 FEW015CB BKN040 M00/M03 Q1020 RMK WIND 850FT 36031G46KT[/FONT]
[FONT=Monospace,Courier]EKVG 040750Z 35024G36KT 5000 -SHSNGS BKN010CB M01/M02 Q1020 RMK WIND 850FT 35035G46KT[/FONT]
[FONT=Monospace,Courier]EKVG 040736Z 35022G35KT 2000 SHSN VV010 M00/M03 Q1020 RMK WIND 850FT 35030G47KT[/FONT]
[FONT=Monospace,Courier]EKVG 040730Z 35023KT 5000 -SHGR BKN025CB 00/M02 Q1020 RMK WIND 850FT 35027G41KT 310V030[/FONT]
[FONT=Monospace,Courier]EKVG 040652Z 36020G30KT 9999 BKN035 01/M02 Q1020 RMK WIND 850FT 35035G46KT[/FONT]
[FONT=Monospace,Courier]EKVG 040635Z 36014KT 5000 -SHSN BKN028 01/M01 Q1020 RMK WIND 850FT 35029G42KT[/FONT]
[FONT=Monospace,Courier]EKVG 040552Z 35018KT 9999 BKN035 01/M01 Q1020 RMK WIND 850FT 36023G35KT[/FONT]

EKVG 041500Z 0415/0421 35020KT 8000 BLSN SCT006 BKN030 TEMPO 0415/0421 02022G35KT 0400 SHSN BKN004 BKN030CB

Mental Mickey · 04-01-2010 5:39pm

owenc wrote: »

ugh here we goo agai back into horrior hill! temp has risen here to 0c and it is clouding ovre how long is this warm period ment to last ( is it at the front of the front or the whole way through) ugh im so angry and depressed ugh!...........

wtf?

Snowaddict · 04-01-2010 5:40pm

Just as an update for the medium term to Day 5. We now have 12Z UKMO, GME, GEM & GEFS Ensembles (To an extent, they are much better than the previous 00Z and 06Z set), all modelling a more due Easterly flow, beginning towards this Friday and into the weekend. This will, quite likely result in the westward advection of an even deeper cold pool over Ireland & 850mb temperatures may well approach -11 over Eastern areas.

As this cold pool moves over the Irish Sea, there is also potential for deep convection & associated snow showers to move onshore in both Eastern and Southeastern areas. While pressure becomes higher, towards 1018mb - 1025mb, the depth of the cold should still ensure the generation of shower activity, at least to an extent, over the Irish Sea. In addition, it will also make for further bitterly cold weather.

Awaiting the 12 ECMWF evolution for final guidance on this.

SA

G-Money · 04-01-2010 5:41pm

Is south county Dublin and Dublin city centre likely to get much snow tomorrow?

04-01-2010 5:41pm

WolfeIRE wrote: »

TBC and anyone else....what do you make of that long cloud tail behind the system (part of the system). Is it possible for that to wrap around the front end and develop the system into a polar Low? If not, if it continues its path to Ireland is it not likely to result on an extended period of precip?

I think the UKMO have nailed this feature as a trough low that will track down the centre of Ireland with most of the precip on it's western flank.
polar low light if you will.
If it travelled down the coast it would have more moisture and depending on dp's would deliver a lot more snow that it will.
But it's potential track has been obvious all day.
The x is where they think the centre of this shallow low will be.

ninebeanrows · 04-01-2010 5:41pm

owenc wrote: »

ugh here we goo agai back into horrior hill! temp has risen here to 0c and it is clouding ovre how long is this warm period ment to last ( is it at the front of the front or the whole way through) ugh im so angry and depressed ugh!...........

You have been officially warned now.

With the amount of time you've spent on here you surely realised that there is warmer maritime air entrenches ahead of this cold front especially affecting coastal areas the north and west raising the temps slightly.

WolfeIRE · 04-01-2010 5:42pm

RTE RADIO ONE discussing snow

Redsunset · 04-01-2010 5:42pm

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQh80G5TAek

In reference to the potential POLAR LOW

Could be a good one.

Doyler1981 · 04-01-2010 5:42pm

- 0.2c at present. Its gotten very cloudy in the past hour as well, surprised nothing has fallen from it yet!

snow ghost · 04-01-2010 5:43pm

owenc wrote: »

ugh here we goo agai back into horrior hill! temp has risen here to 0c and it is clouding ovre how long is this warm period ment to last ( is it at the front of the front or the whole way through) ugh im so angry and depressed ugh!...........

Are you by any chance a snowman owen??? Don't worry if you totally melt we'll keep your carrot nose as a memento.

ninebeanrows · 04-01-2010 5:44pm

Su Campu wrote: »

Just to get things straight guys, the polar low hasn't formed yet....that cloud off Norway is just a complex depression.

And I think people are losing the run of themselves a bit about getting snow tonight. There will be very little snow at low levels tonight, mostly rain or sleet.

I agree and disagree.

Tonights Cold front could give heavy falls of snow for Leinster and the Midlands in my opinion.

Obviously the colder air following behind with more substantial snow prospects.

But away from northern Ulster, Western and northwestern Connacht and as the cold air bites in behind the front and then meets the cold air build over eastern Ireland it should be snow.

The Irish Met have already jinxed this for themselves.

They are coming across far too cocky and confident for a very uncertain weather situation and potentially very severe.

WolfeIRE · 04-01-2010 5:46pm

thanks a million Black for that.

By the way, the GEFS indicates a significant low on Sunday
gens-0-2-132.png?12

Pangea · 04-01-2010 5:47pm

Flash warnings of severe or extreme weather

These are issued when the Met Office has 80% or greater confidence that severe weather is expected in the next few hours.

Local areas affected Warning type Valid from Valid to
Northern Ireland:
Co Antrim
Co Armagh
Co Derry
Co Down
Co Fermanagh
Co Tyrone
Widespread Icy Roads 1630 Mon 4 1200 Tue 5

Outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow spreading south across Northern Ireland this afternoon will fall onto already frozen surfaces giving widespread icy roads and pavements. The precipitation will clear away south this evening leaving a cold night with a widespread frost and occasional wintry showers, giving some further mainly slight accumulations of snow, although there is a risk of a more significant snowfall around dawn on Tuesday morning.

The public are advised to take extra care and refer to Traffic Watch (NI) (operational hours 07:30 to 18:30 Mon to Fri) for further advice on road conditions.

Issued at: 1442 Mon 4 Jan

Risk of disruption Warning Valid
Northern Ireland:
Co Antrim
Co Armagh
Co Derry
Co Down
Co Fermanagh
Co Tyrone
Widespread Icy Roads & Heavy Snow Tue 5 Jan

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting Northern Ireland, parts of southwest Scotland, northwest England and North Wales on Tuesday.

Overnight rain, sleet and snow will clear southwards early Tuesday and as temperatures fall, widespread ice is likely to form on untreated roads and paths. Further heavy snowfall may then develop across Northern Ireland.

Issued at: 1152 Mon 4 Jan

Duiske · 04-01-2010 5:48pm

Anyone curious as to what the story is in Scotland with rain/snow, this is a handy site. Check out the first few North/Highland cams. Thats what I want to wake up to tomorrow

http://www.trafficscotland.org/lev/list.aspx

ffarrell · 04-01-2010 5:50pm

I would say that the Northern, Eastern and North Western regions are the most likely to get any precipitation over the next 48 hours and not too much at that - probably 2 - 5 centimetres at best with about 2-3 centimetres in the Greater Dublin area. I don't see any accumulations at all in the Southern low lying areas of Munster.:o

glossy · 04-01-2010 5:51pm

WolfeIRE wrote: »

RTE RADIO ONE discussing snow

so what did they say! any thing good, or have they been reading what input you guys have done here

DOCARCH · 04-01-2010 5:52pm

owenc wrote: »

..... intimidating users are trying their best to annoy me!

You probably do not intend it, but they way you write some of your posts, they can appear confrontational!

Ohh....is Owenc gone! :-)

SpitfireIV · 04-01-2010 5:52pm

glossy wrote: »

so what did they say! any thing good, or have they been reading what input you guys have done here

That guy was hard to listen to, all I heard was about griting roads etc, not weather as such.

Deep Easterly · 04-01-2010 5:53pm

WolfeIRE wrote: »

RTE RADIO ONE discussing snow

Currently talking about safe driving. Hope this advice is taken on by some of the stupid drivers who seem to disregard the state of the roads over the last couple of weeks. I get the impression sometimes that some people on the roads are merely out to impress at how fast they can drive on ice.

ffarrell · 04-01-2010 5:54pm

Duiske wrote: »

Anyone curious as to what the story is in Scotland with rain/snow, this is a handy site. Check out the first few North/Highland cams. Thats what I want to wake up to tomorrow

http://www.trafficscotland.org/lev/list.aspx

Go the Dublin/Wicklow mountains and you will see metres of the stuff. You won't unfortunately be able to make it to Sally Gap but the depth is incredible elsewhere.:D

Kippure · 04-01-2010 5:55pm

http://www.irelandsweather.com/forum/index.php/topic,790.15.html

A couple more photos of the snow today in the wicklow mountains

knoximus · 04-01-2010 5:56pm

The southeast is out of luck then?

ninebeanrows · 04-01-2010 5:57pm

knoximus wrote: »

The southeast is out of luck then?

Nope possible snow from Cold front.

Definately heavy snow showers tomorrow afternoon/ night into Wednesday.

G-Money · 04-01-2010 5:57pm

Weather just over on RTE 1. Wintry showers on western, northern and eastern coasts tomorrow. Keeping themselves covered aren't they.

Deep Easterly · 04-01-2010 5:59pm

Forecast on Radio One now spoke of warnings issued for northwestern counties for snowfall over the next 12 hours:

Sligo, Mayo, Donegal, Leitrim. Longford.

Mental Mickey · 04-01-2010 5:59pm

There'll be a "better" forecast on after the news. Failing that, check the weather forecast on Sky News.

Freezing Weather Discussion - Widespread Snow Tonight/Tuesday

Comments