Freezing Weather Discussion - Widespread Snow Tonight/Tuesday

darkman2

Continue here:)

Hail/Snow here near Malahide. Place is as white as New Years.

This will continue for at least as far as we can say (which is very far).


Snow tonight and early morning. At least a dusting. Probrably 3 - 5cm's generally.

Seperate

darkman2 wrote: »

Continue here:)

Hail/Snow here. Place is as white as New Years.

This will continue for at least as far as we can say.

Where's 'here' ?

Alicat

Was just coming to post this Darkman!

Malahide also.

darkman2

Seperate wrote: »

Where's 'here' ?

Sorry, near Malahide.

Finished now.

darkman2

Alicat wrote: »

Was just coming to post this Darkman!

Malahide also.

Yes, indeed it looks very similar to new years out there. Of course the Ice hardly melted so everything settled. Going to be dodgy in the morning (if it was not dodgy enough in our locale).

Stevek101

I hope this is heading towards the Dublin 9 area

Alicat

darkman2 wrote: »

Yes, indeed it looks very similar to new years out there. Of course the Ice hardly melted so everything settled. Going to be dodgy in the morning (if it was not dodgy enough in our locale).

Yellow Walls Road is a death trap! Did you see the crash there near Texas Lane this evening?

darkman2

Alicat wrote: »

Yellow Walls Road is a death trap! Did you see the crash there near Texas Lane this evening?

No but im very familiar with the problems on Yellow Walls. It was like walking a road in Siberia yesterday and not much better today. Cars skidding and not moving at the same time, pedestrians falling etc. It's very bad. The council are muppets.

sdanseo

darkman2 wrote: »

No but im very familiar with the problems on Yellow Walls. It was like walking a road in Siberia yesterday and not much better today. Cars skidding and not moving at the same time, pedestrians falling etc. It's very bad. The council are muppets.

They're a damn sight better that Dublin CIty Council though apparently. There was a yoke on Newstalk earlier about how noticeable the FCC area was because it had actually BEEN gritted. We're talking main routes here too.

Yeah Old Yellow Walls road was bad too up near Centra, and Centra's carpark was a complete icerink all of yesterday. The carpark in Airside was treacherous today to the point that it needed gritting or someone was going to kill themselves on it. Outdoor carparks C and D in the pavilions were closed also, so traffic there utterly mental and expect worse tomorrow morning and all day, all round as a result of tonight's new covering.

darkman2

sdonn wrote: »

They're a damn sight better that Dublin CIty Council though apparently. There was a yoke on Newstalk earlier about how noticeable the FCC area was because it had actually BEEN gritted. We're talking main routes here too.

Im telling yeh now FCC are a bunch of retards. How long have I and others been saying here that this was going to happen? That it was common knowledge that very cold weather was coming? Never mind that though - the Yellow Walls is still not gritted. It remains the death trap it was yesterday and will be worse in the morning. God knows what will happen this morning but there will be alot of frustrated, angry people - I can gaurantee that.

items

Waiting for snow is like waiting for a bus, kettle to boil, bread to toast etc, seems like it will never come. When I was a kid, always wished for snow during xmass, over hols, running up to return to school, hopeful entire village would be trapped in by heavy snow. Snow never really came during those times, then one year I wished it never came, I wanted to go out fishing, that year I never saw so much snow. Anyone who grew up during 80's will know what I am talking about.

Most if not all years after that, I returned hoping for snow and always have since then, so far it never came like it did in 80's

This year I don't want it, trying to move house, frozen roads and all sorts is holding me back. I have to finish move this week so sorry folks, don't want any snow my way. I am a bit worried now as this is first time since 80's I genuinely don't want any snow. Funny to see if Ireland does get hit by big snow after this kind of confession.

Watch out tomorrow, be safe, take time traveling to work.

ro_chez

Interchanging between light graupel and snow in Dublin 3 at the moment

Duiske

Theres another shower developing off the east coast. Looks like its aimed at S.Dublin/Bray area.

Redsunset

Duiske

redsunset wrote: »

Strange that the showers on the north coast are not showing on the ME radar. They are snow showers according to RainToday.

plein de force

fresh dusting here
the path and roads are white again

Redsunset

You think a snowfest was coming looking at this,ridiculous.

phlegms

Nice dusting of snow around Raheny as of a couple of hours ago.

SpitfireIV

Bloody stomach bug.....anyone want it, I'm a fond believer of sharing!

Anyway, after one the temp was almost -5c, now its a healthy...-1.8c!

Super-Rush

CroppyBoy1798 wrote: »

Bloody stomach bug.....anyone want it, I'm a fond believer of sharing!

Anyway, after one the temp was almost -5c, now its a healthy...-1.8c!

Keep it to yourself thanks. Going to start this trip to Enniskillen in a few minutes. I'm not optimistic.

M.T. Cranium

A trough has moved south of the Faeroes, approaching Shetland and the K5 buoy later this morning, and there appears to be potential for steady accumulating snow in Ireland from this feature, expected to arrive in Ulster around 6-9 pm and central Ireland (Dublin-Galway) about midnight. I'm waiting to see how it performs on radar west of Scotland later today, but I am saying potential for local 5-15 cms of snow with this on Tuesday.

It's probably the sort of system that could have local variations and I would expect amounts to be greater near east coast, on north-facing slopes, whatever gives a bit of advantage to bring down the full potential of the trough. Winds would veer from WNW to NNE during the trough passage and therefore sea effect would take over from the synoptic scale snowfall during the day Tuesday.

Noting that winds at 850 ft on the Faeroes obs (they report these along with sea level conditions) are oscillating and in the 20-30 knot range. This is a good indication of instability.

I'm sure we'll have quite a range of opinions and estimates on this snowfall event, and a matching range of reports as it happens. Hope you get lucky where you are.

snaps

My temps are running again the same as Claremorris. Currently -5.7c here in SE Mayo. Very White frost out there. Might make a -6c at sunrise.

snaps

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

A trough has moved south of the Faeroes, approaching Shetland and the K5 buoy later this morning, and there appears to be potential for steady accumulating snow in Ireland from this feature, expected to arrive in Ulster around 6-9 pm and central Ireland (Dublin-Galway) about midnight. I'm waiting to see how it performs on radar west of Scotland later today, but I am saying potential for local 5-15 cms of snow with this on Tuesday.

It's probably the sort of system that could have local variations and I would expect amounts to be greater near east coast, on north-facing slopes, whatever gives a bit of advantage to bring down the full potential of the trough. Winds would veer from WNW to NNE during the trough passage and therefore sea effect would take over from the synoptic scale snowfall during the day Tuesday.

Noting that winds at 850 ft on the Faeroes obs (they report these along with sea level conditions) are oscillating and in the 20-30 knot range. This is a good indication of instability.

I'm sure we'll have quite a range of opinions and estimates on this snowfall event, and a matching range of reports as it happens. Hope you get lucky where you are.

This trough seems to be moving SE and not SW towards us.

Redsunset

Airmass divide

Redsunset

Actually beginning to look like great potential,could be very interesting indeed.

Deep Easterly

Latest Met.ie forecast:

National Forecast


04 January 2010 07:04

Today

Very cold and frosty this morning with icy roads and pavements, with the frost and ice clearing only slowly, despite some sunshine, and lingering in some places all day. A lot of dry weather today, but scattered wintry showers also, with some hail, sleet and snow at times, this especially likely over the northern half of the country. Top temperatures zero to plus 5 C.

Tonight

Very cold and frosty tonight with icy patches once again and scattered wintry showers. Also, a spell of rain, sleet and snow over Ulster before midnight, will cross the country overnight, with some fresh snow in places by morning. Lowest temperatures zero to - 5 C.

Tomorrow

Very cold tomorrow Tuesday, with sunny spells and scattered wintry showers. Frost and ice clearing only slowly. Top temperatures zero to plus 4 C.

Outlook

The cold, but mainly dry weather, will continue through the rest of the week and over next weekend, across the whole country. There will be further severe frosts at night, and ice on untreated surfaces, some fog patches possible at times too. Daytime temperatures will be in low single figures at best, despite some winter sunshine, with frost and ice slow to clear.

Tuesday night will be very cold with temperatures well below freezing in many places, and possibly as low as -7 or -8 C., in a few sheltered areas. Frost will be severe with icy surfaces. A few wintry showers are also possible at times, on eastern and northern coasts, but most parts of the country should be dry. Wednesday will be very cold and breezy with a fresh and gusty northeast to northerly breeze. Frost and ice will linger in places, despite some sunny spells. Most places dry, but some wintry showers are possible in places close to the east and north coasts once again. Very cold, frosty and icy overnight and for a time on Thursday.

Most places dry and bright on Thursday with some weak winter sunshine, but there is a risk that a spell of rain sleet and some snow may affect the Atlantic Seaboard. Most of the showers look set to disappear for Friday and next weekend, with just a few possible on eastern and northern coasts, but the days and nights will stay as cold and frosty as ever.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

The warm spell to continue.

irish1967

Light snow here now in Donegal Town.

snaps

yes, made -6.3c there as i was heading out the door. car also reading -6, which is strange as it is always higher than garden

Mothman

Very overcast and sub zero
-0.1/-2.8C
Overnight min -1.8C

Elmo5

About -4 here, I can see the lightest of coverings of snow from last night but not really much different from yesterday. Still some lying snow from new years eve although it has thawed a bit.

Snowaddict

Morning Everyone

Introduction

Firstly, a few points. The overnight outputs, especially that of ECMWF is much better in the medium term with a more sustained Easterly flow. A rewned, fairly potent due Easterly flow, is now likely to be developing into the weekend. Also, the overnight ECMWF shows no sign of a breakdown again until T+240! UKMO 00Z is another excellent run, with a shortwave feature moving down across the country between T+96 T+120, undercutting, with a strong Easterly flow developing. Into the medium term there is, at present, no sign of a let up in these conditions, with renewed blocking quite likely from Scandinavia to Greenland, Ireland being under an Easterly flow.

Snowfall Distribution & Potential

What I find a bit perlexing about the latest Met Eireann update is that the overnight ECMWF 00Z Guidance is once again holiding firm about the snowfall threat, in Eastern and Southeastern areas in particular. With the risk as mentioned last evening for Western Atlantic Seaboard areas into Thursday, when a Shortwave feature will run down the country, hitting into the cold air in place, as a Blocking High builds over Scandinavia.

Here are some of the overnight ECMWF Precip Charts:

Tuesday Night



Wednesday Morning



Wednesday Afternoon



UKMO 00Z

Also holds constant regarding the snowfall risk. The main risk periods include the period from 01.00 to 07.00 tomorrow, when it models the cold front moving down across the country. In models this as remaining intact, all the way down, even strengthening in Eastern areas:



It also models a further risk of snowfall quite widely in the East and Southeast, later on Tuesday and into Wednesday, very much in line with the latest ECMWF guidance. Again, that's not to say that these are entirely correct but these latest runs are almost even better than the ones of last evening & do clearly suggest the potential for snowfall in the risk areas that were mentioned last night. Also, most model guidance now prolongs the Northeasterly flow into Thursday.

GFS 00Z is not as good into the medium term but I suspect it's picking up on a signal initially picked up upon by the other models and subsequently dropped, as overnight, all other NWP Guidance supports a renewed, potent Easterly flow developing towards Friday onwards.

Summary

In summary, the snowfall potential, as discussed last night largely holds firm on the vast majority of guidance. Again, there are no certainties in this setup, the evolution is complex and snowfall is very difficult to predict and model. From all of the available NWP Guidance, the risk of the overnight GFS 00Z evolution with much slacker conditions, is about 35%, with a solid 65% support for a renewed Easterly flow. Equally, it would be positive to see a fairly rapid reversion from GFS, preferably by later today. Some of the other Guidance has modelled this GFS evolution before, bus has subsequently dropped it. UKMO appears to be, by far, the most consistent at the moment.

SA

owenc

yes we have had snow here about 2cm but its something temp is surprisingly -4c... is there another band coming tonight?

Mothman

Mothman wrote: »

Very overcast and sub zero
-0.1/-2.8C
Overnight min -1.8C

If I looked out other windows at the time I would have said partly cloudy.
Mostly clear and temp is dropping
-0.9/-3.5C

ciaran67

This weeks weather

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=uk7dayx7;page=1;type=free;ct=31739~Dublin;sess=#forecast

MetLuver

darkman2 wrote: »

No but im very familiar with the problems on Yellow Walls. It was like walking a road in Siberia yesterday and not much better today. Cars skidding and not moving at the same time, pedestrians falling etc. It's very bad. The council are muppets.

Muppets is an understatement!!:(

Mothman

Mothman wrote: »

If I looked out other windows at the time I would have said partly cloudy.
Mostly clear and temp is dropping
-0.9/-3.5C

Apart from clear skies on the far horizon here,it's totally dull and cloudy and sub zero here too.

-0.4c/-2.9c

Pangea

Ah met eireann are up and down like a yoyo, now they changed the showers of snow for tonight to rain sleet and snow, I dont care what anyone says, Met eireann change their forecasts on a day to day basis, while BBC get it spot on for their parts, and the only time i can expect snow is when bbc put out a warning for northern ireland for heavy snow.

MetLuver

owenc wrote: »

yes we have had snow here about 2cm but its something temp is surprisingly -4c... is there another band coming tonight?

Well done Owenc glad you got something, lets hope that system delivers more for you later this evening and tonight:D

owenc

MetLuver wrote: »

Well done Owenc glad you got something, lets hope that system delivers more for you later this evening and tonight:D

yes ill be happy if it comes tonight and delivers 15cm (like thats ever going to happen) and then somewhere i know would be shut... maybe...

ninebeanrows

Looking likely to be a a widespread fall off snow tonight across much of the country, reaching the middle of country by around 3/4am.

Totals are not likely to be huge but there should be widespread accumulations of 3cm and upto 10cm's in places.

Tiny warm sector could sleety it up in the northwest.

owenc

Weathercheck wrote: »

Looking likely to be a a widespread fall off snow tonight across much of the country, reaching the middle of country by around 3/4am.

Totals are not likely to be huge but there should be widespread accumulations of 3cm and upto 10cm's in places.

Tiny warm sector could sleety it up in the northwest.

`
aww dont tell us that! To be honest with this snow lying these temps and nw predicting 90% chance of it snowing i'd say it hopefully will snow... were is the places most at risk at getting the most amount of snow?

maquiladora

Looks like a bit more precip on the 06Z GFS run, it's only out as far as Tuesday night but looks good.

francie BradyII

Why isn't RTE forecasting this snow? Is it so the goverment can say we didn't see it coming? Predictions on here are for 3cm - 10cm, that will bring the country to a standstill(hopefully)

owenc

francie BradyII wrote: »

Why isn't RTE forecasting this snow? Is it so the goverment can say we didn't see it coming? Predictions on here are for 3cm - 10cm, that will bring the country to a standstill(hopefully)

hopefully that happens then people do not have to go back to work etc till next week another week off would be brill!:eek: Hopefully we get alot more than last night we can still see grass its really slim snow..

rhonin

Snowing here now.

Su Campu

Yes the Arctic is on its way to us.

Jan Mayen sounding over the last 2 days shows H850 going from -9 to -20°C in a stiff northerly wind.

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=np&TYPE=GIF%3ASKEWT&YEAR=2010&MONTH=01&FROM=0212&TO=0400&STNM=01001

Torshavn (Faroe Islands) is beginning to see cooling in the upper levels. The 12Z sounding today should show a big drop at all levels.

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=np&TYPE=GIF%3ASKEWT&YEAR=2010&MONTH=01&FROM=0212&TO=0400&STNM=06011

Lerwick too

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=europe&TYPE=GIF%3ASKEWT&YEAR=2010&MONTH=01&FROM=0300&TO=0400&STNM=03005

Castor Bay (Lurgan) is still showing a cap at 00Z, with warm mid-upper levels. Tonight's 00Z sounding will be very important for us.




Meanwhile here's the 12Z Low Level Aviation chart for today. Dontchya just love Area B, moving south at 20knots, with SN (SNOW) forecast in it (not just SHSN - Snow Showers, but real SNOW!!!) And the trough along the northwest coast in Area C should bring localised light snow showers.




Belfast Aldergrove TAF gives a low chance of heavy snow showers from 5am tomorrow

TAF EGAA 040503Z 0406/0506 26005KT 9999 SCT020 TEMPO 0406/0424 3000 -FZRA -SHRASN BKN012 PROB30 TEMPO 0406/0418 BKN007 PROB30 TEMPO 0418/0424 1200 BR BKN003 BECMG 0421/0424 33012KT PROB30 TEMPO 0505/0506 0500 +SHSN BKN005 BKN010CB=

---

Derry/Eglington and Belfast City have freezing rain and sleet or snow showers for today

TAF EGAE 040802Z 0409/0418 26006KT 9999 FEW012 SCT025 TEMPO 0409/0418 3000 -FZRA -SHRASN BKN012 PROB30 TEMPO 0409/0418 BKN007=

TAF EGAC 040802Z 0409/0418 26004KT 9999 FEW012 SCT025 TEMPO 0409/0418 3000 -FZRA -SHSN BKN012 PROB30 TEMPO 0409/0418 BKN007=

---

Dublin gives a low chance of light snow showers overnight from 2am

TAF EIDW 040500Z 0406/0506 VRB03KT 9999 SCT020 PROB30 TEMPO 0406/0409 3000 -SHSN BKN010 BECMG 0409/0412 31008KT BECMG 0416/0418 27012KT PROB30 TEMPO 0502/0506 3000 -SHSN BKN008 BECMG 0504/0506 34010KT=

---

Shannon gives a higher chance of longer spells of snow from 10pm tonight

TAF EINN 040500Z 0406/0506 03007KT 9999 FEW020 PROB30 0406/0411 2000 BR SCT003 BECMG 0411/0414 31007KT PROB40 TEMPO 0422/0506 2500 -SN SCT004 BKN008 BECMG 0502/0505 01009KT=

---

Knock has a low chance of light snow showers from 3-11pm today, followed by moderate snow overnight

TAF EIKN 040500Z 0406/0506 36005KT 9999 FEW020 PROB30 0407/0411 2000 BR SCT003 BECMG 0412/0415 27010KT PROB30 TEMPO 0415/0423 2000 -SHSN BKN003 BKN012CB TEMPO 0423/0506 0600 SN SCT002 BKN006 BECMG 0501/0503 35012KT=

---

Donegal chance of light snow showers from 10am today

EIDL LOCAL AREA FORECAST VALID 041000/041900 WIND VRB05KT BECMG 1012 28010KT VISIBILITY 9999 PROB40 TEMPO 1019 3000 WEATHER PROB40 TEMPO 1019 -SHSN CLOUD SCT022 PROB40 TEMPO 1019 BKN010 CLOUD HEIGHTS GIVEN ABOVE MSL=

---

Sligo sleet or snow showers from 11am

EISG LOCAL AREA FORECAST VALID 041000/041900 WIND VRB4KT BECMG 1114 29009KT VISIBILITY 8000 PROB40 TEMPO 1119 3000 WEATHER PROB40 TEMPO 1119 -SHRASN/-SHSN CLOUD SCT015 SCT030 PROB40 TEMPO 1119 BKN010 CLOUD HEIGHTS GIVEN ABOVE MSL=

---

MetLuver

owenc wrote: »

yes ill be happy if it comes tonight and delivers 15cm (like thats ever going to happen) and then somewhere i know would be shut... maybe...

ah you never know when snow will fall, the weather will do as it pleases one morning...(if you havent been lampost watching all night that is) you might wake up to a few inches, ill pray for snow in Coleraine as well as Navan tonight and hopefully that place you know will be shut;)

ninebeanrows

Also it does look like a trough/comma feature will approach from the north quickly after this front during Tuesday afternoon, perhaps down the east coast.

Exact track uncertain.

maquiladora

francie BradyII wrote: »

Why isn't RTE forecasting this snow? Is it so the goverment can say we didn't see it coming? Predictions on here are for 3cm - 10cm, that will bring the country to a standstill(hopefully)

I don't think the country will be brought to a standstill by "scattered wintry showers".

There is good potential for a dusting of snow in a lot of places and some decent snowfall in other places, on high ground for sure, but I wouldn't expect more than that. These events have an unfortunate habit of being frustrating half or non events at the last minute.

peasant

maquiladora wrote: »

These events have an unfortunate habit of being frustrating half or non events at the last minute.

on that note ....


...it just started r a i n i n g in Strandhill, Sligo :rolleyes:

(= Sligo Airport)

Elmer Blooker

I'm quite anxious after looking over this mornings charts. The Greenland high is sinking south later in the week and milder atlantic air is drifting over the top - the dreaded toppler!
If this Scandinavian high doesn't materialize then it's all over. All the charts seem to be in general agreement though that this high will build over Scandinavia. We're depending on it to hold back the Atlantic!