Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

snow scorpion · 13-09-2009 6:58pm

kerry1960 wrote: »

..., btw when will the rains return :rolleyes: , it's been bone dry for almost 4 days , place is like a dust bowl here .

Here in New York, we see the news from RTE once a week and they said you guys are getting more good weather for the next 10 days.

Ballybunion Sunday, 13 Sept:

kerry1960 · 13-09-2009 8:48pm

20.40 local time ,very bright , very visible , was that the ISS MTC ? , any link to a timetable for the coming week

.

nilhg · 13-09-2009 9:18pm

kerry1960 wrote: »

20.40 local time ,very bright , very visible , was that the ISS MTC ? , any link to a timetable for the coming week .

This is for my location, but shouldn't be too far off for most of the country ( you can set your own location on the home page), it does seem as if it was the ISS you saw.

kerry1960 · 13-09-2009 10:32pm

nilhg wrote: »

This is for my location, but shouldn't be too far off for most of the country ( you can set your own location on the home page), it does seem as if it was the ISS you saw.

Just saw your post too late nilhg , missed the 2nd pass by a few mins

, no problems with light pollution here so hopefully clear sky's for a few more nights , cheers

.

M.T. Cranium · 14-09-2009 5:32am

Monday, 14 September, 2009
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TODAY the fine spell of mostly sunny weather should continue with perhaps a little more cloud evident in eastern counties and especially Ulster. With a slight easterly component to the wind, temperatures are likely to vary from about 17 C around Dublin (possibly as low as 15 C in parts of Ulster) to about 21 C in some inland western counties. Local sea breezes and randomly drifting fog banks near some coasts will complicate things slightly. Some fog may be slow to clear this morning too as cooler air drains into the eastern part of the country.

TONIGHT will return to clear, rather chilly conditions except where cloud drifts in from the east. That cloud may settle to fog or mist while inland clear skies could also turn to fog, and by morning this fog could be quite dense in places. North central valleys could drop to 2-4 C, other locations 4-7 C mostly. A touch of ground frost is possible.

TUESDAY will bring somewhat gustier northeast breezes and possibly the cloud slowly spreading from the Irish Sea will make a morning advance into other sections of Ireland then clear slowly after mid-morning. Highs are likely to fall by several degrees, to the range of 14 C east to 18 C west. Winds will become noticeable around the east and south coasts, NE 15-25 mph at times, but lighter inland.

WEDNESDAY, after quite a cold, foggy start, the day should brighten to partial sunshine and highs around 16 or 17 C. Winds now will be a bit lighter again.

THURSDAY may be a touch warmer again as the ridge redevelops overhead, so the morning will start out foggy and cool, the afternoon could be as warm as 19-20 C again.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY, as you'll recall, I said I wasn't that confident of the models knowing much about the timing of the breakdown, and now they have a different view, a developing southeast flow that could bring some cloud and drizzle to some southern counties perhaps, but is likely to be rather dry elsewhere.

I have the hunch that any breakdown of this spell will eventually be a "retrogression" of the high westwards into the mid-Atlantic with the gates opening to northerly flow from east of Iceland ... so the month could end with some much cooler weather.

Mobhi1 · 14-09-2009 9:47pm

Well, it pretty much stayed cloudy all day in the Dublin region with only a few glimpses of sun.

nacho libre · 15-09-2009 12:39am

kerry1960 wrote: »

Great stuff MTC , long may it continue , the piccy taken this morning in my location , looking toward Tralee and West Kerry , in the background is Slieve Mish Mountain , perhaps you recall this area from your visit all those years ago .

i'm glad to see you're enjoying the settled weather, i just hope there won't be a recurrence of those past floods come Sunday evening:P

M.T. Cranium · 15-09-2009 5:46am

Tuesday, 15 September, 2009
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TODAY will continue somewhat cloudy in many regions, but probably with a little more sunshine in the east than yesterday, and highs of about 16 to 19 C with the warmer readings in the south central to inland western regions. Some mist will linger for a while this morning, and a rather keen northeast breeze will develop fairly soon after sunrise and reach 20-30 mph at times near the southeast coast. There could be some light drizzle at times where cloud is slow to break.

TONIGHT will likely become clear again in many areas and could be more extensively foggy than last night, with some rather low readings in the northern inland districts, 3-6 C but closer to 5-9 C for lows elsewhere.

WEDNESDAY will bring somewhat more sunshine again, with cloudy intervals, and highs near 18 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY should be back to the more balmy sunshine of last weekend as the ridge rebuilds (it has drifted west and then it should drift back east to where it was on Saturday). Therefore, the highs may be back to the vicinity of 20 or 21 C in some western counties and 17 C in the east. Nights will be clear, and foggy in many places.

THE WEEKEND continues somewhat uncertain as the models try to assess whether the ridge will break down at all, and if so, from the south or the northwest. We've had several different "looks" in the past few runs, and I think the best forecast suggestion is to say, probably mostly dry, could be more cloud than sun, and temperatures near normal. At this stage, can't rule out some rain although this seems more likely late Sunday and in the west mostly.

NEXT WEEK is currently looking rather variable and mild, perhaps even warm at times, until near the end of the month when the highly uncertain long-range signals are for much cooler northerly type weather.

15-09-2009 9:20am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Tuesday, 15 September, 2009
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TODAY will continue somewhat cloudy in many regions, but probably with a little more sunshine in the east than yesterday,

The irish sea is producing showers.It's been raining steady here for the last 10 minutes and is as dull as ditch water-I have the lights on.

glimmerman123 · 15-09-2009 3:04pm

It's rather cloudy and breezy here in North Tipperary at the moment. M.T i enjoy your daily updates and although i don't post too often i do check in a couple of times everyday and i must say i find your forecasts very accurate keep up the good work and thanks.

La Madame · 15-09-2009 3:46pm

Southwest: Cloudy with Sunny Breaks - late afternoon.

kerry1960 · 15-09-2009 5:48pm

nacho libre wrote: »

i'm glad to see you're enjoying the settled weather, i just hope there won't be a recurrence of those past floods come Sunday evening:P

Hehe , so you're forecasting the County could be swamped in a tide of emotion come Sunday evening Nacho

.

M.T. Cranium · 16-09-2009 5:22am

Wednesday, 16 September, 2009
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TODAY, cloud will break to hazy sunshine for brief intervals, but a few places mainly in the southeast could see a few periods of light drizzle too, as a rather strong northeast wind just clips Wicklow and Wexford (if you plan any upland climbs today, you might find this wind as strong as 40 mph near summits, but 15-25 mph around sea level). Further north and west, there could also be a few drizzly intervals this morning, but I doubt that many places will get more than a trace of rain, and some could see 4 or 5 hours of sunshine at least. Highs will be similar to yesterday, 15 to 18 C mostly.

TONIGHT, I expect some more clearing as higher pressure builds back in, but this clearing may be patchy, so lows will depend very much on where skies clear, if they do, lows would reach 3-7 C, if not, 8-11 C. Clear skies would also rapidly lead to fog formation.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY should be fairly warm and pleasant days with variable amounts of cloud but of a rather high elevation, mostly alto-cumulus, and some will see more sun than cloud too. Highs should be able to recover back to near 20 C with the additional sunshine, and the lighter winds will make it seem a bit warmer too.

THE WEEKEND is looking similar, as this ridge has nowhere to go, one weak system is circling around to the south, and the jet stream is staying well to the north, so although the ridge is stretching out and weakening, the central part of it continues to run east-west through Ireland until perhaps Monday. This should mean a fairly pleasant weekend too, weak troughs could bring more cloud and a few minutes of light rain but it may stay dry in most places and rainfalls would be 1-2 mms at worst, I think ... until a stronger frontal system arrives on Monday or perhaps Tuesday morning ... then a more variable and windy period will follow ... and later in the week or the following weekend it could turn colder, but several days next week before that may be quite warm.

My weather here on Tuesday was cloudy to start, sunny to finish the day, rather warm again at 23 or 24 C. I just saw the ISS again, and this time I caught it doing its disappearing act -- takes about five seconds for it to lose all the apparent brightness and wink out. This was almost right overhead too. I hope they get a good night's sleep up there. :cool:

Sponge Bob · 16-09-2009 8:20am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I just saw the ISS again, and this time I caught it doing its disappearing act -- takes about five seconds for it to lose all the apparent brightness and wink out. This was almost right overhead too. I hope they get a good night's sleep up there. :cool:

The ISS is quite low for a spacecraft , the wink out is because you saw it( I guesstimate) 2.5-3 hours after sunset at your location and the sun had moved too far around the curvature of the earth . Ireland is due a wink out tonight . If you havea clear sky look to the south west and you will see a very bright 'white like venus' object moving in a direction east to south east at around 23:23:50 . Around 2 mins later it will rapidly fade from Bright to invisible just like M.T. said at around 23:25 .

Then go to bed as it is late , OK

M.T. Cranium · 17-09-2009 12:24am

Forecast update at the usual time, just popped in to see what's up, and to report my own weather for Wednesday, which was mostly cloudy with some light rain at times, a max of about 21 C. Looks like another warm spell building up for us by the weekend.

M.T. Cranium · 17-09-2009 6:45am

Thursday, 17 September, 2009
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TODAY will be partly cloudy with longer intervals of hazy sunshine, once any local fog dissipates. In some places this may take until after 10 o'clock. Winds today will be very light, the high that was over Ireland last weekend is back after a leisurely swing around the nearby Atlantic. Now it's heading east very slowly. Highs today should be close to 19 or 20 C except in some northern counties where 17 C might be the maximum.

TONIGHT will see extensive fog developing, and quite chilly overnight lows in most rural areas, 2 to 6 C with some slight risk of ground frost here and there, but in larger urban areas it may stay milder, 8-10 C.

FRIDAY will have widespread morning fog, some hazy sunshine mid-day, and increasing high cloud through the afternoon hours, with highs of 18-20 C.

SATURDAY, some light rain is likely in the northwest mostly, and skies will become cloudy for most of the day even where it stays dry (southeast most likely), any rainfall amounts should be light (1-3 mms) and it will stay reasonably warm at 17 C.

SUNDAY will probably start out rather cloudy, and become sunny around mid-day with highs near 18 C.

MONDAY is likely to be similar to many Mondays before the dry spell, warm (near 20 C) with increasing southwest winds followed by rain at night. Has anyone else noticed this sort of seven-day cycle in the weather this past few months (it was broken this week by the dry spell)? Anyway, the models are now showing a fairly strong low moving past Ireland on TUESDAY bringing strong SW winds, some risk of heavy showers although this system looks a bit "flatter" so it might be mostly cloud and light showers. Temperatures would stay up around 20 C. Through next week, following these windy days another high builds up over Ireland ... the earlier model indications of a cold outbreak have been shifted into "never-never land" and in fact now they want to warm things up considerably in a southeast flow.

eigrod · 17-09-2009 8:56am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

SUNDAY will probably start out rather cloudy, and become sunny around mid-day with highs near 18 C.

Can we be reasonably confident of a dry, calm day for the All Ireland Final in Croke Park next Sunday then ?

kerry1960 · 17-09-2009 7:23pm

eigrod wrote: »

Can we be reasonably confident of a dry, calm day for the All Ireland Final in Croke Park next Sunday then ?

Dry , for sure , not sure of the calm part around 5pm though

.

M.T. Cranium · 18-09-2009 5:14am

Friday, 18 September, 2009
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TODAY will be hazy once any fog dissipates, and sunshine may be obscured by increasing high cloud, but it should remain dry and highs will reach about 17 C or so.

TONIGHT will become overcast and misty with periods of light rain moving across Connacht and some parts of north Munster towards north Leinster and most of Ulster before morning. This rain is likely to be intermittent and will leave 3-4 mms before departing; some southeast counties will stay dry. Lows will be about 8 to 10 C.

SATURDAY will be mostly cloudy but some sunny breaks may develop especially in the south, while the morning rain is likely to taper to drizzle and depart all areas by mid-day. Highs will be about 15 or 16 C.

SUNDAY is looking fairly settled and while there could be considerable cloud, fog or mist in the morning, the sun may appear at times around mid-day to afternoon. Highs will be near 17 C.

MONDAY will become windy from the south, with periods of rain developing especially by late afternoon and evening, heavier in the southwest (20 mms potential there, 10 mms most other regions). Highs will be 18-20 C.

TUESDAY will become partly cloudy later in the morning once the showers depart, and it will be fairly windy from the SW veering more westerly, with highs near 18 C.

M.T. Cranium · 19-09-2009 8:00am

Saturday, 19 September, 2009
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TODAY, some light rain will continue to move eastward across central and northern districts, giving about 3-5 mms in most locations before some afternoon sunny breaks as winds veer from south ahead of the weak front, to westerly behind it (gusting to 30 mph at times). The south will have even less rain and highs generally should reach 15-17 C.

TONIGHT will become rather misty or foggy as winds become light and skies clear overhead, but low cloud may obscure the sky at times. Lows will be in the range of 6 to 10 C.

SUNDAY will be a rather cloudy day with some sunny intervals, more frequent in the southeast. Some drizzle may continue at times near the west coast and on higher hills but this will probably not give much accumulation of rain. Highs will be 17 or 18 C.

MONDAY will start out dry and perhaps sunny for a while, before cloud increases on strong S to SW winds 25-40 mph, and rain develops by afternoon or evening. Highs will be 18-20 C.

TUESDAY will also be rather warm and windy with the morning rain becoming showery before some clearing develops by afternoon. Winds will veer to SW then WSW about 25-35 mph.

From WEDNESDAY onwards, into the following weekend, another settled, dry period is likely under high pressure, with some rather chilly nights, local fog and patchy ground frost, but the days will be pleasantly mild to warm, with highs generally 15-18 C.

Enjoy the weekend.

Oh yes, my weather ... I think I overlooked Thursday, which was sunny with increasing cloud, 21 C. Then Friday, the cloud gave light morning showers, with clearing before noon, and afternoon sunshine with 23 C as the high. It has now clouded over again with more light rain threatening.

M.T. Cranium · 20-09-2009 6:41am

Sunday, 20 September, 2009
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TODAY will be mostly cloudy, with some mist and fog lingering this morning, and there could be some very light rain but mostly in west coastal districts. Some sunshine could break through especially in the east and southeast by mid-day. Highs will reach 16 or 17 C.

TONIGHT will be cloudy with rain gradually spreading into western counties, and winds picking up from the south at 15-25 mph. Lows will vary from about 8 C in the east, to 12 C in the west.

MONDAY will become quite windy and mild with periods of rain, winds SSW 20-40 mph (30-55 mph northwest coast), and highs near 18 C.

TUESDAY will see the rain clearing eastward by about 0900h and this should be followed by some sunshine in strong SW to W winds (25-40 mph), with highs near 19 C east, 17 C west.

WEDNESDAY, another long dry spell appears likely to set in, with clear, cold nights (lows 1-4 C except 6-8 C in sheltered south and west coast locations) featuring some local frost and widespread fog, but mild to locally warm days, with considerable sunshine and highs of 15 to 18 C. This spell could last for a week to ten days. There may be weak troughs with more cloud and the odd sprinkle of rain embedded, but it seems likely that measurable rainfall will be very slight.

Mobhi1 · 20-09-2009 11:32am

It's actually a beautifully clear sunny morning here.

M.T. Cranium · 20-09-2009 10:40pm

UPDATE _ Sunday, 10:30 p.m.
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Not much change in the model runs, some rain likely for most tomorrow and early Tuesday, but amounts may not be too heavy, will have a rethink on that before the 0530 forecast ... any other thoughts appreciated ... we are enjoying a very nice Sunday here, full sunshine, a few cumulus clouds, and a fresh breeze -- the week ahead looks warm and dry too (here). About 21 C for the high today, expecting 25-27 C by midweek (and over 100 F in parts of the western states inland).

This year to date has featured very warm weather over the far west of North America and parts of Texas, but otherwise rather cool in most other regions. This trend seems to be lifting to more of a coast to coast warmish autumn pattern. The weather certainly has improved for Ireland this month compared to July and August; you'll recall June was quite a good month too, so it has turned out to be a sort of sandwich summer, the bread a lot nicer than the spread.

Joe Public · 21-09-2009 1:20am

We had quite a big dollop of yucky spread into the bargain.

M.T. Cranium · 21-09-2009 6:05am

Monday, 21 September, 2009
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TODAY, an equinoctial gale of sorts will have its greatest effects in Connacht with SW winds gusting to about 40 mph, and 5-15 mms of rain. It will be similar by mid-day to afternoon in Ulster. Further south and east, the weather will be cloudy with a few showers, and also a few sunny breaks, with SSW winds about 20-30 mph (30-40 mph in Kerry and parts of Cork). Highs will be around 17 or 18 C.

TONIGHT, the mild, rather humid weather will continue with a little more rain likely, as winds continue to blow steadily from the SW at about 25-45 mph. Lows will only fall to about 12 or 13 C.

TUESDAY, morning showers will probably give way to partly cloudy skies, with just a few isolated showers left over, and winds veering to WSW 25-45 mph. Highs will reach about 19 or 20 C in the east, and stay around 17 C in the west.

WEDNESDAY will continue partly cloudy to overcast in the north, with still a slight risk of light showers, while the south sees a settled trend with more sunshine possible. After a rather chilly morning low of 3-7 C, highs will be in the range of 14-17 C north to south.

THURSDAY onwards, high pressure will be situated close to the south coast and this will bring settled conditions, clear skies at times in the south and central counties, more overcast with drizzle at times further north. This general trend is likely to continue, with chilly nights (2-5 C rural, 7-10 C urban), some patchy ground frost as well as widespread morning fog, but mild to warm mid-day and afternoon highs around 17 C.

This spell is likely to continue with little variation for a week or even two weeks; the high may tend to drift back to the west at times (retrogression) allowing more of a northerly breeze, but would then tend to drift back towards Ireland, possibly a little closer to the north over time.

Watch for updates in today's moderately active weather pattern.

glimmerman123 · 21-09-2009 3:45pm

Bright and sunny but very windy here in north tipperary at the moment. Feels pleasant enough in the sun. I hope it continues into October especially Halloween for trigger treating with the kids.

DOCARCH · 21-09-2009 4:23pm

glimmerman123 wrote: »

Bright and sunny but very windy here in north tipperary at the moment. Feels pleasant enough in the sun. I hope it continues into October especially Halloween for trigger treating with the kids.

trigger treating......:eek: sounds dangerous!

Turned into a lovely afternoon here. 18.8c atm.

M.T. Cranium · 22-09-2009 5:42am

Tuesday, 22 September, 2009
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TODAY will start out generally cloudy with light rain or drizzle at times, but skies should brighten by mid-day and there could be some sunny intervals by afternoon, although northern counties could continue to see some occasional light showers. Winds will continue rather brisk at SW 20-45 mph. Highs will be in the range of 17 to 19 C with the warmer readings near the east coast.

TONIGHT will continue breezy and partly cloudy, and there still could be some drizzle or light showers in the north, but not much accumulation. Lows will be around 5 to 8 C as skies begin to clear before sunrise. Winds will drop off in the south and east, but may continue WSW 20-30 mph further north.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy with a slight risk of showers, mainly in the west and north, with highs around 16 C.

THURSDAY to SUNDAY (and possibly beyond the weekend) will be dominated by higher pressure over the south with mainly clear skies at night leading to some local frost or fog patches, and mild to warm daytime sunshine although the far north could remain more cloudy. Highs through this period will be around 16 to 18 C and lows will range considerably, 2-5 C in lower lying rural locations, to 8-10 C elsewhere.

NEXT WEEK is also looking settled and may remain dry in some places for several more days, with rather warm temperatures in the daytime (17-19 C possible) but local fog and ground frost possible at night.

M.T. Cranium · 23-09-2009 5:25am

Wednesday, 23 September, 2009
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TODAY will start out cloudy with some light rain or drizzle at times, but the sun may appear by mid-day. Rainfall is not likely to be more than 1 mm, and winds will be moderately light from the west at 10-20 mph. Highs today will range from about 14 C in the north to 16 C in the south.

TONIGHT will see gradual clearing in most regions but it may stay cloudy in northern counties. This will lead to some fog in central rural districts, and lows will drop off to about 2-6 C in these areas, while staying a little milder 7-10 C in some northern locations.

THURSDAY will be partly sunny in the south, mostly cloudy in the north, and there still could be some drizzly showers in Donegal and parts of nearby counties. Otherwise it should be fine, with highs around 17 C for most.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny, with early morning fog patches, lows of about 3-7 C, and mild to warm highs of 16-19 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy also, with somewhat stronger west to northwest winds developing, and a risk of showers by afternoon mainly in northern counties. Highs will be around 18 C.

SUNDAY will be cloudy with sunny intervals and a few morning showers that shouldn't amount to much where they do materialize; highs will once again be around 18 C.

My weather conditions for Tuesday -- sunny and HOT (!) with a high very close to 30 C. The entire western half of North America is basking in late summer heat this week. Skies were clear, not even any cirrus today.

M.T. Cranium · 24-09-2009 12:07am

UPDATE _ Thursday, 0010h
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By the way, at the risk of appearing a total noob, what do you call the time zone for Ireland, I am going to guess it is not BST but some other designation? Just wondering ... what I call my time zone is Arizona time, because it is about 30 C outside, I just got in from a walk and it is boiling hot in the sun here (Wednesday afternoon at 4 pm here). Actually my time zone is Pacific and we are on daylight savings time also, so it is PDT here.

As you can tell by now, there is no actual update, just these rambling observations. Looks very pleasant for your weather now to about Monday, then a slow decline into autumnal northerlies, at least that's the model suggestion, but we've seen this yanked away before.

GFS, yanked away, good one MTC. Back to what I wasn't doing then ...

Sponge Bob · 24-09-2009 12:22am

It is GMT . In the summer BST is applied but it reverts to GMT in the winter. BST is considered to be an adjustment off GMT ( nowadays UTC) rather than the other way around even though more of the year is spent in BST than in GMT .

The very West of ireland is naturally 40 mins behind @ 4 mins per degree of longitude but most of Ireland is nearer Greenwich 0 than 15 west degrees west which would warrant a different timezone.

An experiment with perma BST in the early 1970s was abandoned after a year .

Too many crashes in the dark mornings in midwinter.

M.T. Cranium · 24-09-2009 8:10am

Thursday, 24 September, 2009
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TODAY will continue somewhat cloudy and breezy over northern counties with a few spits of rain at times, but the southern half of the country should start to see more sunshine and lighter winds, once any fog dissipates. Highs will reach about 14 C in the north and 17 C in the south.

TONIGHT expect more widespread fog after skies clear fairly extensively in the evening. It will become quite chilly in most places with lows around 3 to 7 C, although staying closer to 10 C in the cloudier north.

FRIDAY to MONDAY will bring mostly clear skies with some drifting patches of lower cloud or fog (this mostly in the overnight and morning hours), so that there is a good chance of sunshine each day in many places, but also the slight risk of a shower mostly in the northern third of the country. Highs each day will be rather variable due to the different rates of dissipation of fog and low cloud, but sunnier locations should reach 18 C at times, while cloudier or foggier places could stay closer to 15 C. Nights will be generally quite chilly and there may be some readings close to 2 or 3 C in rural spots, but the average should be about 6 C.

NEXT WEEK, there are fewer hints now of any colder northerly outbreaks, and more signs that the settled weather will gradually fade into a cloudy easterly flow that eventually turns to a mild, rainy southeast to southerly.

Mobhi1 · 24-09-2009 10:54am

Sponge Bob wrote: »

It is GMT . In the summer BST is applied but it reverts to GMT in the winter. BST is considered to be an adjustment off GMT ( nowadays UTC) rather than the other way around even though more of the year is spent in BST than in GMT .

The very West of ireland is naturally 40 mins behind @ 4 mins per degree of longitude but most of Ireland is nearer Greenwich 0 than 15 west degrees west which would warrant a different timezone.

An experiment with perma BST in the early 1970s was abandoned after a year .

Too many crashes in the dark mornings in midwinter.

Apparently there is actually a designation IST (Irish Summer Time):
http://www.timeanddate.com/library/abbreviations/timezones/eu/ist.html

M.T. Cranium · 24-09-2009 11:09pm

UPDATE _ Thursday, 2310 IST
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I must confess that I have not had time to check the new model runs (there goes my raise) ... but just while I'm here, the local weather for Vancouver has continued sunny although quite a bit fresher today with a sea breeze. Some local stratus developed but not in my location. It is about 21 C outside, the sun is still quite hot but the air feels chilled in comparison to the past two days. It continues record warm further east, for example 32 C in Lethbridge, Alberta.

Back in the morning, your time.

M.T. Cranium · 25-09-2009 6:10am

Friday, 25 September, 2009
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For the next four days, high pressure will be sitting over southern Ireland, very slowly drifting a bit further to the north and then west, but never far away from Ireland ... so the weather has once again ground to a halt. This is probably fine with most of the population, but weather fanatics are climbing the walls hoping for some action.

TODAY will continue rather cloudy with a gradual trend to more sunshine by afternoon. With very light winds, any lingering fog or cloud is hard to shift, but the weak autumnal sunshine will eventually prevail. Highs will reach about 16 to 18 C.

TONIGHT (and the next several nights) will feature more clear intervals than the previous two nights, so that temperatures should begin to dip well below 10 C in rural areas, and fog should become more prevalent. Any places that stay cloudy from sunset onward will have lows only near 10 C, but other spots mainly in the south could see lows in the range of 3 to 7 C. Fog may become rather thick in some valley locations.

SATURDAY to MONDAY, this settled spell of weather will continue with fairly equal proportions of cloud and clear skies, leading to some sunshine for most places each day, a few locations having more cloud and even some patchy drizzle at times, and highs generally 16 to 19 C. The overnight conditions will continue as per the above, partly cloudy to clear, with fog patches developing.

The settled spell is likely to break down slowly in mid-week with some tendency to an east wind followed by southeast to southerly winds, and low cloud with light rain or drizzle more frequent by about Thursday or so. Eventually the weather should become more active again with an increase in winds by late next week or the following weekend.

Clear and rather cool here at 10:00 pm, about 12 C outside.

La Madame · 25-09-2009 9:30pm

This settled spell seems somehow unusual after all these Freak Summers of the last years.

jaykay8989 · 25-09-2009 9:51pm

Hi M.T., just want to add my thanks for all your work. Your forecast is the only one I look at now - so reliable! Keep up the good work - hopefully there'll be some interesting weather for you here over the winter months!

M.T. Cranium · 25-09-2009 10:11pm

You guys and gals are too kind, but I share your hope that things will get more interesting, because these long periods of anticyclonic torpor reduce my flickering brain activity to a mere fraction of its usual sporadic volume, hence the name I suppose ... not sure what I just said there.

I popped in to make sure a ninety mph hurricane had not sprung up, also to post my own rather boring weather report, sunny and 22 C, this whole week has been just like mid-summer and we're just waiting for the other shoe to drop because by later Saturday, I'm expecting 50 mph wind gusts and squally showers with a sharp cold front. So there is action somewhere.

The jet stream has pushed much further north across North America this month, in phase with the northward movement it displayed over your regions. It must have dropped south somewhere, probably eastern Asia and the western Pacific. That is not in itself a good sign for a cold winter anywhere between here and there, but another rapid change in a month or two, and somebody could get lucky. The El Nino signal is apparently getting stronger too. I will issue my own long-range forecast, when I have one, which I don't yet ... but this will be sure to burst the accuracy perception bubble if nothing else can. The LRF game is very much a case of pin the tail on the donkey, as I prove on a regular basis over in the Boards forecast comp forum, but if you want an accurate LRF, there's one or two lads over there with a good track record, certainly a good deal better than mine.

jaykay8989 · 25-09-2009 10:18pm

Yes I heard about the El Nino signs and that even if we do get El Nino conditions, there are a number of ways they could pan out for us. Will also be interested to hear your LRF and that of the guy from New Zealand everyone is talking about.

Planning to enjoy the current calm spell as a make-up for our non-summer in Jul/Aug. It felt positively balmy in Dublin City this afternoon!

M.T. Cranium · 26-09-2009 5:35am

Saturday, 26 September, 2009
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Well, things have really ground to a halt now, and most parts of Ireland should enjoy a pleasant autumn weekend with at least some hazy sunshine each day. This will continue well into next week, and then the models have some confusion (looking at various output at various times recently) as to whether the high breaks down from the north, or the east, or even the south.

In other words, take anything beyond Wednesday with a big grain of salt.

TODAY, SUNDAY and MONDAY should all be about the same, partly cloudy, hazy, with some pleasant sunshine at times in most locations, and highs in the range 17-19 C. Winds will be light all three days, and mainly of local drainage origins, weak sea breezes, valley breezes etc, and not much overall trend except a weak WSW flow in northern counties giving perhaps a little more cloud and the risk of some patchy drizzle at times there.

OVERNIGHT HOURS each of these days should be partly cloudy and there may be a cooling trend because the high is gradually building a bit further north so that the wind gradient will drop off to zero allowing for some more intense cooling than we've seen yet under this patchy cloud. So I will say expect some lows down around 3-7 C eventually, although any place that stays mostly cloudy will probably stay closer to 10 C. Some dense fog is likely to form eventually, more likely by Sunday night and Monday morning.

By TUESDAY the weather could be shifting very gradually to a more cloudy, breezy variety with likely a north to northeast component setting in as the high is pushed back a bit to the west by strong northerly winds over the eastern North Sea. Ireland will feel just the outer edges of that new regime and perhaps not even that, but it will have the effect of getting a bit of moister air from the Irish Sea into the surface mix, and perhaps longer cloudy intervals.

Eventually, this could turn into a moderate northeast breeze and spits of light rain in places, or, it could turn into a low cloud and southeast wind with drizzly rain too. Either way, temperatures would probably be near 15 C.

Sorry to be rather vague, but I don't really place a lot of trust in the guidance at the moment, beyond the breakdown period of this high. We'll see more clearly what is going to happen later next week, by Sunday or so.

Have a wonderful weekend, and good luck to Padraig Harrington at the golf championship. I haven't looked into the weather there, but of course there has been a ton of rain in that area (Georgia) recently. I think I saw some risk of heavy thundershowers indicated for that part of the world on the weekend.

La Madame · 26-09-2009 6:49pm

All Saturday - cloudy her in SW Ireland - rather warm for the location.
MetEireann speaks of an 'Indian Summer' pretty subjective but from an Irish point of view ok - haven't we got over two weeks without rain now?

M.T. Cranium · 26-09-2009 10:17pm

I would have to imagine, from this distance, that the dry weather has been a life-saver for some farmers and others with outdoor business interests, another month like July and August could have been quite damaging. On the other hand, we've had this dry weather here since late January and water levels in the rivers of this part of the world are quite low, the crops did fairly well thanks to irrigation and some timely rains in August, but the grass is still not fully "greened up" after the summer drought here. It looks green now, but there are still some yellowish patches to be found, which is quite unusual for here, usually the rainy season is starting to lock in about now (and we get about three months of very heavy rain here at the end of the year).

Well, today we had quite a strong westerly wind blow in behind a cold front, and the mid-day temperature has fallen off to 17 C from the low 20s past few days. Another strong Pacific high is building onto the coast here and so tomorrow could be even cooler but still mostly dry, with patchy rain a bit further north.

The tropical season hasn't amounted to much so far, after a late start and a pick up of the pace in late August, we are only dealing with one weak tropical disturbance (no. 8) near the Cape Verde Islands.

M.T. Cranium · 27-09-2009 5:55am

Sunday, 27 September, 2009
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This rather dull and quiet spell of settled weather will probably continue most of the upcoming week. The high pressure centre is just to the southwest of Ireland today, and will keep trying to push north, but apparently waves of colder air moving southeast through Scandinavia will keep pushing it back, so that it will tend to stay about where it is now until perhaps Friday, before fading back to the south and allowing some fresher W to NW winds to develop; even then, the change in the weather will be rather subtle.

I will resume more detailed daily forecasts on Monday; for today, I will just suggest that from today to about Friday, each day is likely to bring considerable cloud, some hazy sunshine in a few places in the afternoon, the odd bit of drizzle mainly near the west coast, and highs near 18 C for most. The nights seem likely to continue mild and cloudy too, but there is always the risk of some parting of the clouds and considerably cooler local overnight lows. With the cloud, the lows have been staying around 11 or 12 C, but with any clearing you might expect 3 to 7 C with dense fog resulting.

Maybe some boards weather folk will post some additional ideas, but I don't see much more than this by way of details through the period. By Thursday there may be a slight northwest wind setting in, and by Friday and next weekend, a moderate westerly, but temperatures should remain about the same.

At 10 p.m. on a Saturday evening, it is clear and crisp outside here, near 10 C and a strong westerly breeze gradually dying out.

FlutterinBantam · 27-09-2009 11:43am

I always check your forecast before scheduling golf MT, tks for the good forecasting.

La Madame · 27-09-2009 4:40pm

This Sunday afternoon has deserved the term 'Indian Summer'
- Sunny & Rather Warm.

Me too prefer ' M.T. Cranium forecast' to Met Eireann.

M.T. Cranium · 28-09-2009 5:38am

Monday, 28 September, 2009
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TODAY will continue rather cloudy and quite mild with some intervals of hazy sunshine possible at times, but also the odd spot of drizzle mainly in the west. Winds will continue quite light and from a westerly direction in most cases. Highs will be 17 to 19 C.

TONIGHT may see a bit more clearing than previous nights but lows will probably average about 10 C with lower values anywhere that it clears in the evening. Some dense fog patches could develop there.

TUESDAY will be similar to today, partly cloudy, hazy and mild (warm perhaps) with highs 17 to 19 C. Winds will be light from a west to northwest direction.

WEDNESDAY will see some slight increase in the wind from a northwest direction, but there will not be a huge change in the weather, partly cloudy with highs near 18 C, and just the slight risk of a brief shower in parts of Ulster.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue similar, partly cloudy, mild to locally warm, gentle W to NW winds, and highs near 18 C.

THE WEEKEND is likely to become breezier at times, with some chance of showers in northern counties mostly on Saturday as a weak front develops and drifts south, then stalls and weakens. Highs will still be in the range of about 16 to 18 C.

NEXT WEEK is looking more active as stronger south to southwest winds arrive in advance of deep low pressure likely to move well to the west of Donegal around Tuesday, heading for Norway. Temperatures seem likely to remain a bit above average for early October.

darc · 28-09-2009 2:40pm

The weather has got soooo boring over the past 3 weeks - any chance someone could rustle up a big storm, couple of localised floods or a typhoon?:D

You'd wonder how places like Las Vegas can have a 24 hour weather channel?

M.T. Cranium · 28-09-2009 7:39pm

UPDATE _ Monday, 7:45 p.m.
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The latest charts suggest that winds may pick up a little more than previously advertised by Friday night, Saturday and Saturday night. There may be quite a strong W to NW wind developing just to the north of Donegal and certainly western Scotland may expect gusts to 50 or 60 mph, but so far I would say the potential looks more like 30-50 mph gusts in the northwestern coastal regions of Ireland and 20-40 mph more generally (at that time). Meanwhile, the high has stalled just to the south of Valentia and seems to be stationary now.

The weather here has become cloudy today with rain threatening to the west, chance of a thundershower here later this afternoon (currently 16 C at 1145 local time).

M.T. Cranium · 29-09-2009 7:30am

Tuesday, 29 September, 2009
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TODAY will continue rather cloudy and mild with periods of drizzle or light rain becoming somewhat more frequent in the north and west. Winds will be picking up slightly there, to about 15-25 mph at times, but the south and east will remain fairly calm. Highs will be between 16 and 18 C.

TONIGHT will be a little more breezy than previous nights and rather cloudy with some light rain in the north mostly, with lows generally about 9 to 12 C.

WEDNESDAY will become partly cloudy and winds will become more northwesterly, but temperatures will remain close to 16 or 17 C.

THURSDAY will bring mostly cloudy skies and a few showers, with the northwest winds backing to westerly and rising to about 20-30 mph especially in northern areas, lows of about 8 C will be followed by highs near 16 C.

FRIDAY will become quite windy in some northern counties, with the strongest winds by evening and overnight into Saturday morning. There may be some heavier showers moving south with this disturbance but some southern counties could remain dry much of the day. Highs will be near 15 C and winds will pick up to 30-50 mph at times in the north, more like 20-35 mph in the south.

SATURDAY will start off rather windy with risk of some squally morning showers, but should then become partly sunny and less windy. Highs will be around 15 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy and rather cool, and by Monday morning it could be rather chilly in places, but most of next week is then looking quite warm again as winds gradually turn around to a southerly direction once this cooler high crests over Ireland and sinks southeast.

Well, at least things are starting to move again -- we have had some rather heavy showers here in the late afternoon and evening (Monday) and this has recently ended with about 8 mms recorded. It is about 13 C outside here at 1130 pm.

M.T. Cranium · 30-09-2009 5:36am

Wednesday, 30 September, 2009
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TODAY will continue rather cloudy but with some brief sunny intervals, and a somewhat stronger west to northwesterly breeze at 15-25 mph for most locations. There may be some light showers at times across northwestern counties, and a few may survive long enough to reach the east coast, but totals of trace to 1 mms of rain will be about it for most. Highs today will be around 15-17 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy, breezy and a little cooler, with lows of 7-9 C.

THURSDAY will become sunny at times as winds slacken again, and highs may reach 17 or 18 C. Winds across the far north will remain moderate at 10-20 mph but may drop off considerably further south.

FRIDAY will see increasing winds from the west (WSW morning veering to WNW evening), reaching 30-50 mph by evening in Donegal but 20-35 mph further south. With these winds, there will be a few showers at times, and considerable cloud with just brief sunny intervals. Highs will reach 15-17 C.

SATURDAY will be quite breezy with showers of rain or hail at times, heavier in the northwest than elsewhere. Winds will be about 20-40 mph from the WNW veering in Ulster to more NNW at times. It will feel quite chilly in the wind with highs of about 14-16 C.

SUNDAY is likely to start out with considerable low cloud breaking gradually to partly sunny skies, but there could also be some drizzly showers around, as the cool air mass from the north loses most of the strong breeze but remains rather chilly for the rest of the day. Lows of about 5-7 C will be followed by highs of about 14-16 C. With the winds lighter, it may not be that bad a day especially by afternoon.

MONDAY looks likely to bring a cool E to SE wind and periods of light rain, with highs of about 13-16 C.

TUESDAY, expect periods of rain and fog, with a SSE wind of 20-30 mph at times. Highs will be about 16-18 C.

WEDNESDAY, the early indications suggest rather strong and cold westerly winds setting in with squally showers. Highs would be about 12-14 C.

Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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