Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Tuesday, 3:45 p.m.
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Cloud across the northern half of the country is slowly advancing south with hit or miss showers, expect some of these in the Dublin area around 6 p.m., then the front should stall across south-central Ireland overnight, leading to some drizzle before fog develops. The latest guidance returns to the theme of stronger winds on Friday, but other than that, the forecast should remain about the same. The weekend is looking very unsettled and becoming quite windy especially in the northwest on Sunday.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 12 August, 2009
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There are some signs of improvement of the weekend forecast as far as Sunday goes, resulting from a general speeding up of the wave train heading for Ireland later in the week. However, Monday will now get round two of the weekend storm potential. Saturday is still basically a meteorological write-off unless you hope to jump from a high cliff and sail a prodigious distance with some risk of electrocution.

But the weather pattern at first is rather mundane, so I thought a little off-the-wall humour might be in order. (many readers say, we thought this was always the case here ...)

TODAY in any case will start out rather cloudy and the sun will have a hard time breaking through, although it may be seen trying at times. There could also be some drizzle or light rain mainly across the central parts of Ireland, with highs today 19-21 C. If any sun does break through, it could reach 23 or 24 C locally, probably in the southeast. It will feel very muggy as this air mass has travelled up from the subtropics.

TONIGHT will become quite misty with a little more light rain, and then foggy as skies overhead clear to some extent, but the low-level moisture will then be trapped by a weak inversion, with lows near 12 C.

THURSDAY could bring a few sunny intervals especially in eastern sections, with more extensive cloud streaming in later. Highs will be about 22 C. Rain may be edging in by late afternoon in the southwest, and some places could have a period of drizzle or light rain during the day as high pressure moving across is rather weak.

FRIDAY will become quite windy and wet from early morning, with risk of some thunderstorms but generally a soaking rain for a few hours, after which it may tend to clear slightly from the southwest, with winds becoming SW 20-35 mph, and highs near 21 C.

SATURDAY will be breezy and later on quite windy, especially in Donegal and Mayo where gusts may reach 45 or 50 mph from the west and later northwest. Most of the day will be fairly mild with persistent showers and risk of heavy thundershowers with hail possible, on gusty SW winds 30-45 mph at times. Somewhat colder air will arrive by evening on the strong NW winds. Highs will be near 19 C. There could be a risk of severe local storms around Galway towards Offaly and Westmeath, stay tuned for more about that.

SUNDAY may turn out alright after all, due to the faster motion of the Saturday low. Assuming this is actually true, then Sunday will see the brief but timely influence of a ridge of high pressure bringing some mid-day sunshine after the cloudy, windy early morning period, and before cloud and rain arrive late at night for Monday. This timing is a bit delicate for my liking at five days out, but that's what the guidance is saying, so I will at least report it as such, and hope for the best ... highs would be near 19 C.

MONDAY would then become cloudy, windy and wet again, with quite gusty winds and risk of some heavy rainfalls.

annieee

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Tuesday, 11 August, 2009
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TODAY should turn out to be quite pleasant with at least some sunshine, except perhaps near the south coast where fog may be persistent, and also in Donegal and the northern parts of NI, where cloud heading for Scotland may stream across most of the day. That leaves most of Ireland under partly to mostly sunny skies, once the morning mist thins out, and temperatures heading for about 23 C away from slightly cooler sea breezes from a westerly direction (south near the south and east coasts).

Not in Sligo, mate. It pissed all day there yesterday.

obrienmichael

Cloudy here in North Tipperay all morning with some light rain but starting to brighten up in the past few minutes quiet humid aswell. I have just finished watching the 1 o clock weather update on RTE. The five day weather chart at the end of the forcast shows next Monday to be dry with light winds from the south and highs of around twenty degrees. I hope this doesn't change over the next few days.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 13 August, 2009
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TODAY should start out dry with some hazy sunshine fading gradually behind advancing cloud, at least in the west; some eastern sections may have sunshine until mid-afternoon. Rain will be advancing rapidly towards the west around sunset, hopefully it won't spoil the evening there. Highs will reach 22 or 23 C in many places.

TONIGHT will bring some heavy rain at times with a steady SSW wind of about 15 to 25 mph. It will be quite mild at about 14 C. Fog may develop over some coastal areas and hills.

FRIDAY will see this heavy rain dispersing into showers, some still rather heavy, but as the day progresses there could be some brief sunny breaks and some dry intervals between showers. Rainfalls will probably average about 15-25 mms in the west and 10 mms in the east. Highs will be about 19 or 20 C unless one or two places get enough sun at mid-day to reach 22 C.

SATURDAY will become quite blustery with passing showers and risk of a thundershower. This system is not quite as strong on the more recent charts and wind gusts by evening may only be 30-35 mph but there could be local gusts higher than that in thundershowers. Highs will be about 18 C, possibly 20 C if there are some sunny breaks. Overnight it will remain cloudy with more showers, but it will feel cooler as winds become more W'ly.

SUNDAY is looking somewhat improved but there could be quite a bit of low cloud around to start, and this may be slow to clear in the northern half of the country, with a persistent WSW wind of about 20 mph. Brief showers are possible too, but with any luck there should be some long sunny intervals in the south and east, where winds won't be as strong. Highs will be about 17 C.

MONDAY, there was some hope earlier for a dry and even sunny day, but recent output suggests the warm fronts are speeding up, displeased with the idea of two consecutive dry days, and hoping to drop some rain by late in the day at least. Winds will pick up to about 20-30 mph from the south. Highs should be near or slightly above 20 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY should be quite interesting as very warm air begins to move northeast in the general vicinity of the southeast and parts of the U.K., so there may be an eruption of thundershowers with the developing fronts. Temperatures may be a little above 20 C but it will be very humid.

By the way, we had about the same weather as Ireland on Wednesday, namely cloudy in the morning, sunny intervals at mid-day, the odd sprinkle of rain not leaving any amounts, and highs near 21 C. Considering how different we were two weeks ago, this is somewhat more normal.

M.T. Cranium

You're having a slightly better day than we are here, it has been cloudy since early morning and off and on rain, about 4 mms so far, mostly before noon. It is about 18 C. Needless to say the ridge is long gone, it was 97 F in Washington DC yesterday, that's where our heat wave ended up, and so it must be trying to go your way. We'll see what the Atlantic has to say about that idea.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 14 August, 2009
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Interesting note about today's weather -- the system is moving in on schedule but a layer of dry air seems to be causing evaporation of the first part of the rainfall; once daylight arrives, you may notice "virga" which is the rain falling part way to the ground. I would imagine this might be visible in Dublin and points south, as the rain appears to be reaching the ground already in northwest and north central Ireland.

TODAY, then, will start out cloudy with either rain or the virga mentioned above, leading to sporadic light rain, but then some brighter intervals may develop as the heavier cloud and moisture moves through towards Northern Ireland and southwest Scotland. This may leave some time for sunny intervals and temperatures could reach 20 C during those, otherwise it will be around 17 or 18 C. Some more showers could follow all that by late afternoon or evening. Winds will pick up to moderate strengths from the SSW 15-25 mph. Rainfall estimates vary from 20-30 mms in higher western districts, to 5-10 mms in sheltered eastern districts (sheltered by high ground to the southwest, that is).

TONIGHT will continue cloudy with a few showers, rather gusty SW winds, and lows around 13 C.

SATURDAY will bring some heavy showers in the morning, and the risk of a brief thundershower, then variable cloud with some sunny intervals, as winds freshen and veer to westerly 20-35 mph. The northwest could see higher gusts to about 45 mph, and some locally heavy hail showers are possible over inland hilly sections of Connacht.

SUNDAY will be cloudy with some sunny intervals, mainly near the south and east coasts, and further west or north there could be drizzle or light rain at times in a humid, clammy sort of SW'ly flow, with highs reaching 17-19 C.

MONDAY now appears to be a fairly dry day with some chance of sunshine but also a lot of cloud around, and increasing southerly winds over the western half of Ireland. Highs may reach 21 C away from the sea breeze zones.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY should be active days weather-wise as warm, humid air moves into the southeast and clashes with dry, cooler air masses further west and north. Some heavy thunderstorms could develop, and certainly there is likely to be persistent showery rainfalls. Temperatures will be close to 20 C and won't fall off much at night. Winds may be fairly strong at times from the south, at least over the southeast quarter of Ireland.

LATER in the week it should turn brighter with fresher westerly winds and about equal chances of sunshine or showers. Highs will be near 18 C.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Friday, 5:30 p.m.
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Mainly light showers at worst for the Dublin region this evening, as well as large sections of the southeast and south central parts of Ireland. Somewhat heavier but still intermittent rain elsewhere, with the prospects of some heavy showers and possibly a rumble of thunder late tonight, between 0300 and 0600, as the most active part of this frontal system moves across Ireland. Both Saturday and Sunday are looking changeable and it isn't likely to rain all day but it's not likely to remain dry all day, so your outdoor plans may involve a quick look at the radar to pick a window of opportunity (or an umbrella). Storm lovers may be thrilled to see the latest output for Tuesday and Wednesday, it looks quite enticing. More about that as we get closer to the events.

The weather here today is about the same as in western Ireland, cloudy with rain on and off, not too warm but humid at 16 C. Looks like a drying and warming trend for us over the weekend.

Hope you all have a marvellous weekend and perhaps PH can get some revenge on the T-man at the PGA (if you're lost, you won't care anyway).

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 15 August, 2009
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TODAY will start out quite miserably in most places with a steady rain, with some heavier bursts, bringing 10-25 mms before it ends (fairly soon in the west, about 0900 central and 1200 eastern counties). Some rather rapid clearing may follow with winds veering more to the WSW (20-30 mph) which will allow for some rapid drying, but then a few heavy showers or even a thunderstorm could follow a few hours later (watch for these around mid-day in the southwest and west central coastal regions, to about 3-5 p.m. in the Dublin region). Highs today could reach 21 C if the sunshine lasts long enough.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy in the south and overcast in the north, with some light rain at times there, and rather strong westerly winds. Lows will be near 12 C.

SUNDAY will be mostly cloudy in the north, to partly cloudy in the south, and still with some chance of light rain at times mainly in the west and northwest, but this will become a bit heavier or steadier by the evening. Highs will be near 19 C in the south and 16 C in the far north.

MONDAY will have some sunny intervals probably more frequent in the south and east, and mostly dry conditions, with morning lows near 10 C and highs near 20 C.

TUESDAY will see some heavy showers developing and southerly winds rising to 20-35 mph at times, with risk of thunderstorms. Highs will be near 21 C.

WEDNESDAY could bring some heavy bursts of rain or thunderstorms, with gusty winds at times, veering from south to southwest, and highs near 21 C.

THURSDAY is currently timed to be a dry day with some sunshine, then another rainy frontal system arrives by FRIDAY with more strong southwest winds possible.

It seems that the jet stream is trying to lift a bit further north this month but essentially it is only succeeding in bringing in some warmer moist air than in much of mid to late July, so although there was some improvement for a while, the month may end up being almost as wet as July was.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 16 August, 2009
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TODAY will continue mostly cloudy with brief sunny intervals in the east and south, while drizzly light rain moves into western counties on a brisk SW'ly breeze. Later on, somewhat heavier rain will develop and bring 5-10 mms to most of Connacht, with 3-7 mms for Ulster and most of Leinster, possibly a bit less for Munster overnight. Highs will be around 17 to 19 C today.

TONIGHT will see the periods of rain tapering off to drizzle and mist or fog by early morning, with lows around 13 C.

MONDAY will have some breaks in the overcast, and a few hours of sunshine will develop across some southern and eastern counties from late morning to evening. The west and north will tend to be more cloudy and some sporadic drizzle or light rain could continue there. Highs will vary from 16 C in Donegal to 21 C in the southeast. Monday night will continue to bring some clear intervals and it may be a little cooler than most recent nights with rural lows of 8 or 9 C possible.

TUESDAY will become cloudy from around sunrise with periods of rain developing along with moderate southerly winds and temperatures rising to about 20 or 21 C. The rain could become thundery in a few places.

WEDNESDAY is likely to bring a mixture of cloud and sunshine with scattered showers and thundershowers, with moderate SSW winds that could become gusty around some of the heavier showers. Highs will be around 22 C in some eastern counties and 19-20 C for most other districts.

THURSDAY may bring some sunny intervals with highs near 20 C, but FRIDAY is currently looking wet with highs held down to 17 C by the rain and low cloud. Next weekend promises more unsettled and slightly warmer than average conditions.

The rather rapid onset of tropical storm activity may be part of a large-scale change over the Atlantic which could actually favour Ireland with a better chance of high pressure settling over the region later in August and into early September. A related change that may be a good sign is that persistent cool weather (relative to normal) in the northeast U.S. through June and July has eased to a somewhat warmer than normal pattern in early August. It shows that a long-term "height deficit" (meaning a depressed jet stream) over the Atlantic is slowly easing, but so far the pace of change has been too slow to give Ireland much improvement from July to August. Even so, I think there will be one more warm spell or mini-heat wave to add to the brief ones observed earlier this summer. And then there's always late February for some reliable warm weather.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Sunday, 9 p.m.
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Things appear to be on track for the northern and central two-thirds of Ireland to see some light or at times moderate rain overnight, and I should mention that Sligo will get as much as anywhere.

To update my own weather conditions, Saturday was a mostly cloudy day with a high near 20 C, so about the same as what many of you had, without the morning rain. Today has turned out to be sunny and it is warming up again, 23 C so far, and the forecast for the week ahead is for highs in the 27-30 C range, not as extreme as we had two weeks ago, more of the normal summer warmth.

If you're watching the PGA golf from Minnesota, they are getting some clearing skies there after some light rain all morning (local time is six hours behind yours and two hours ahead of mine). It will be about 25 C there by the end of the golf today, and by the standards of that region, not overly humid although the dew points have just fallen slightly to about 17 C. There's a steady west wind of about 20-25 mph.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 17 August, 2009
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TODAY will be cloudy with some sunny intervals, mainly around mid-day in eastern and southern counties. Some drizzly light rain may continue for a while this morning in west-central Ireland, then this will die out for a while to be replaced later by showery rain arriving on a warm front this evening. Highs today will be around 18 to 20 C.

TONIGHT will be clear in the east for a while and lows could fall to 8-9 C in rural districts, but further west it is likely to be overcast with occasional rain, and this rain will spread further east after midnight. Lows in other parts of Ireland will be near 12 C.

TUESDAY will be warm and humid with some heavy morning showers, possibly a few sunny breaks mid-day or early afternoon, then more rain later with the risk of thundershowers developing. A rather strong southerly wind will develop especially near the south and west coasts. Highs will be about 21 C inland and 18 C near the water.

TUESDAY NIGHT will also feature some thundershowers moving through with possible heavy rainfalls, and lows of about 14 C.

WEDNESDAY will bring intervals of cloud and sunshine for part of the day, then more showers and thundershowers, with highs near 22 C in eastern Ireland, and 18-20 C elsewhere. Winds will be rather strong at times from the southwest.

THURSDAY will feature some partial clearing after early morning showers to a fresher, westerly wind that may gust to 40 mph in the north and west at times. More showers could follow, but there should be longer sunny intervals and highs near 17 C.

FRIDAY continues to look rather wet and relatively cool, with highs near 17 C.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY are currently looking unsettled and about like most of the other recent weekends temperature wise, near 20 C.

NEXT WEEK there are indications of higher pressure building up to the northeast and allowing some drier conditions with east winds, this could turn out to be a warm spell as long as the wind direction gets to be a little south of due east, but the signals are a bit mixed; this could equally be a rather cool, cloudy period with winds swinging more around to the north. I'm not really that confident that these models have picked up a real signal here, so if it just turns out to be yet another mild southwest Atlantic sort of week, don't blame me (entirely).

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Monday, 8:30 p.m.
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Not much to change in the forecast, despite drizzly light rain advancing from the west, it may stay dry if not clear for part of the night in some eastern and southeastern locations, probably you'll be able to see a few stars through a veil of higher cloud, and the moon doesn't rise until well after midnight so if you see that it could be something else.

By the way, the only planet visible in the evening or around midnight nowadays is Jupiter, which should be visible in the southeast after sunset and low in the south around midnight. Venus is currently a morning star, and Mars is rising after midnight too. Saturn is quite close to the Sun in the sky and can't easily be viewed at this point.

The weather here is warming up again, it is sunny and 27 C at 1230 local time here.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 11 August, 2009
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TODAY will become quite warm with a few sunny breaks in south-central counties spreading eventually to the east coast. Further north, it may stay cloudy but the morning rain is likely to become showery and then brighter spells should develop there also. Around Dublin there will probably be some occasional morning showers and a brief sunny interval in the lunch hour or early afternoon time frame, then more cloud. Highs will reach about 23 C in some inland southern or even central parts, and 20-21 C almost everywhere else. Winds will become a little more gusty from the south.

TONIGHT will see heavier showers redeveloping and moving in from the southwest around evening, then reaching central and eastern Ireland around or after midnight. Lows will be quite mild at 15-18 C. Some places may see about 15-20 mms of rain.

WEDNESDAY will bring a few more sunny intervals after the morning showers clear away, and it will remain warm with highs near 22 C. There will be another round of heavy showers or even thunderstorms later in the day as winds become SSW 20-30 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT is likely to be quite showery or even stormy with another very mild overnight low of about 16 C.

THURSDAY will see the squally showers heading away from the east coast by about mid-morning and afterwards, there should be some sunny intervals, brisk westerly breezes, and highs near 18 C. More showers could redevelop especially in the north and west.

FRIDAY was supposed to be wet, but at the time of the latest guidance this system has weakened to the point where the day may only be cloudy with light showers. Let's hope that idea holds because probably few need any more rain at this point. Highs still look to be around 17 or 18 C.

THE WEEKEND is continuing to look rather unsettled and breezy with highs probably close to 20 C.

NEXT WEEK, nothiing much is happening except for Hurricane Bill ... well that's what the GFS model was showing me very recently, the hurricane is to hit Newfoundland on Monday morning as quite a strong storm (80 mph winds are indicated) and then race across the Atlantic in much weaker form to graze southern coastal Ireland with a weak remnant low on Tuesday night of next week. I should stress that this model forecast only shows winds of 20-30 mph by that time, so no need for anyone to worry about this now.

This can't really be trusted yet beyond the general idea that the hurricane may be near Newfoundland by about Monday; after that, what's left of it could easily be anywhere from Iceland to Portugal by mid-week, it all depends on how much the Atlantic ridge ridges as the hurricane approaches eastern Canada. So keep it in the back of your mind that Bill could be part of the forecast scenario in about eight days.

nilhg

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Tuesday, 11 August, 2009
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NEXT WEEK, nothiing much is happening except for Hurricane Bill ... well that's what the GFS model was showing me very recently, the hurricane is to hit Newfoundland on Monday morning as quite a strong storm (80 mph winds are indicated) and then race across the Atlantic in much weaker form to graze southern coastal Ireland with a weak remnant low on Tuesday night of next week. I should stress that this model forecast only shows winds of 20-30 mph by that time, so no need for anyone to worry about this now.

This can't really be trusted yet beyond the general idea that the hurricane may be near Newfoundland by about Monday; after that, what's left of it could easily be anywhere from Iceland to Portugal by mid-week, it all depends on how much the Atlantic ridge ridges as the hurricane approaches eastern Canada. So keep it in the back of your mind that Bill could be part of the forecast scenario in about eight days.

Interesting about Hurricane Bill, I'd just left Ag college and started farming at home with my father when Hurricane Charley came to visit on the night of the 25/26th of August 1986, ever since I pay plenty of attention to talk of hurricanes slipping across the Atlantic from Canada.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 19 August, 2009
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TODAY will bring intervals of rain, heavy at times, to most of western and central Ireland. The east may remain dry until mid to late morning, then the rainfall could be more showery when it arrives there. The heavier bursts of rain in the west may be followed by some brighter intervals before a final round of heavy showers and possible thunderstorms arrives this evening. Throughout, winds will be rather gusty from the south at 20-35 m.p.h., and highs will be near 21 C. Rainfalls could be as heavy as 15-30 mms and local flooding is possible.

TONIGHT the rain and thunder may become quite heavy as it moves slowly east across the country, with gusty SSW winds veering more westerly by morning, and very mild lows near 17 C. A further 15-30 mms of rain could fall leading to more flooding.

THURSDAY should be a brighter and less muggy day with strong SW to W breezes (quite windy over the open Atlantic and on hills throughout Ireland) 20-40 m.p.h., passing showers redeveloping by afternoon, and highs around 17 C.

FRIDAY looks variable with some cloud, some sunshine, and brief showers, rather extensive higher cloud over top of it all, and highs near 17 C after morning lows that could be as low as 9 or 10 C.

SATURDAY is expected to be breezy, showery and a bit warmer again with highs of 19 or 20 C.

SUNDAY should see this trend continuing with slightly cooler temperatures again, highs near 17 or 18 C.

MONDAY will continue somewhat unsettled with mostly cloudy skies and showers, highs near 17 C.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY is the time frame we are watching closely as the various weather models all seem to agree that what's left of Hurricane Bill can be expected to be near Ireland at some point in this interval, but it's too early to speculate on the details (the hurricane is being shown near St. John's Newfoundland on Monday afternoon, and speeding eastward in a strong jet stream. I wouldn't be surprised if it brings gales and heavy rains to some part of Ireland and/or Scotland.)

Tuesday here was sunny and quite warm, about 27 C, but this is not as extreme as that heat wave we endured and it didn't feel too bad with the low humidity.

-- See the thread started by Deep Easterly for more ideas about today's rainfall.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Wednesday, 8:20 p.m.
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The heavier rain is now moving towards central and eventually eastern Ireland, would say to expect downpours in Dublin by about 0200h after intermittent showers. Some may get a thundershower during this frontal passage. I will perhaps issue another update around midnight as I continue to monitor the radar and satellite imagery.

As for Bill, the models have been quite consistent for days showing this hurricane slamming into Newfoundland. From that point on, they have dispersed the remnants all over the Atlantic on various runs, but the most recent guidance is starting to look about as expected, a strong wind and rain event for parts of Ireland on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.

There probably won't be a clear indication on this until Saturday, because there has always been some chance that the storm would track too far north to be much of an issue for Ireland. There is also a slight chance it would track southeast towards the Iberian peninsula.

My weather, naturally, hot and sunny with highs near 30 C. If we could only combine our climates into one tolerable blend.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 20 August, 2009
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TODAY will bring some squally showers moving rapidly east this morning, with a few thundershowers mixed in, then sunny intervals, less humid conditions and brisk SW breezes 20-30 mph, with highs near 17 or 18 C. A few more showers could develop later and affect mainly western counties.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with just a slight risk of showers, mostly to the northern counties. Lows will drop off to about 8 or 9 C in some rural areas and 10 to 12 C elsewhere.

FRIDAY will be a partly to mostly cloudy day with showers at times, somewhat heavier in the northwest than elsewhere. Winds will be brisk across Donegal, Mayo and nearby counties because just to the north there will be gales approaching western Scotland, but further south winds will be more moderate (all from a westerly direction). Highs will be about 17 C.

SATURDAY will bring more showers and warmer temperatures near 20 C, with brisk southwest winds developing.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with a few more showers, brisk westerly winds and highs near 17 C.

MONDAY will also be cloudy with showers, strong west to northwest breezes, and highs near 16 C.

Following that, as Bill crosses Newfoundland Sunday night and Monday, there remains a chance that a strong remnant storm could be racing in towards Ireland by late Tuesday. Some guidance is suggesting this strong low will halt rather quickly and spin around in the central Atlantic, but this seems rather suspect. We'll keep watching developments.

Sponge Bob

Absolutely Pishing in Galway/Clare all morning and this heavy rain is now about to cross into Tipp/Offaly/Westmeath and should clear Connacht by lunchtime .

Currently flooded area like Kilkenny are at risk of a topup from then onwards.

Storm 10

We had unreal rain here in Galway from around 8am just starting to brighten up now, there are reports of flooded roads and I am not surprised when you look at the radar.

http://www.met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp

Where in the name of god is summer gone have we no hope for some nice weather.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Thursday, 5:45 p.m.
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Widely scattered showers, the heaviest around Wexford at the moment, should continue their "splash and dash" trek east across much of Ireland this evening, but it will be dry much of the time with some sunny intervals. The rather strong SW winds will tend to stay fairly steady through much of the night then drop off except in exposed locations before morning.

The latest guidance on Bill continues to show the remnants heading towards Ireland late Tuesday, and the suggestions most recently are for gale force potential around the northwest coastal regions by Wednesday morning. The track is pretty much due east until near 20 W then a curve north, followed by several days of spiralling around and filling slowly, which would mean several days of breezy, showery weather. Of course, you can get that without Bill's help, I suppose.

I'll post my weather now although it's only 0945 here, it looks like being another sunny, hot day, but with late thunderstorms and a cooling trend setting in overnight. The predicted high is about 30 C. It is 24 C now.

df1985

flying out of dublin airport wednesday at 6am,are flights likely to be disrupted due to big bad BILL?

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 21 August, 2009
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TODAY will start out partly cloudy in most areas, but the west will be showery, with some heavy and possibly thundery rain in the southwest, slowly advancing east towards Cork and Waterford. Although winds will generally be rather light today, the northwest coast could see some higher gusts by early to mid afternoon (WSW 25-40 mph there), and the heavy shower complex in the southwest could produce some strong wind gusts as well. Further east, a mixture of cloud and sunshine with brief and widely dispersed showers can be expected later on, and for almost all regions the highs will be 17 or 18 C.

TONIGHT will see some clear intervals and lighter winds, allowing rural areas to drop to about 8 C for their low, and 10-12 C in coastal and urban areas.

SATURDAY will see a gradual increase in cloud during the morning, with rain to follow, possibly quite heavy in the southwest and central counties by afternoon. Winds will gradually pick up to reach SSW 20-30 mph. Highs will be about 19 C.

SUNDAY will start out rather stormy in most of Ireland with squally showers and thunderstorms, then it may brighten as winds become more westerly. After morning lows near 13 C the daytime highs will be around 18 C.

MONDAY is expected to be breezy, mostly cloudy, with showers or longer periods of rain, and steady SW to W winds of 20-30 mph.

TUESDAY will continue unsettled, and if the current model forecasts are right, we'll be watching the approach of (remnants of) Hurricane Bill, which is being advertised as a very windy system racing in towards western Ireland by late in the day. On the current guidance, many parts of Ireland could see wind gusts to 50 or even 60 mph from this storm Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with squally showers or thundershowers. And although it would ease off gradually mid-week, the rest of the week into the weekend would remain breezy and cool due to the continuing presence nearby of this low, which is then predicted to loop around near Iceland and drift southeast eventually into the North Sea.

Meanwhile, watch for updates on today's more localized storm in the southwest.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Friday, 2:30 p.m.
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Issuing an alert for possible local severe storms in parts of s Tipps, Laois, inland Waterford and Wexford ... also local heavy showers in north central counties ... possible hail, wind gusts to 50 mph, and slight risk of a small tornado with any of these (by small tornado, I mean an F0 tornado that may be nothing more than a rope-tornado feature but still capable of flipping over a garden shed or taking tiles off roofs).

A noticeable feature of these showers also, is how chilly the temperature becomes after they move past, 12 C at Finner Camp for example, very cool for this time of year.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 22 August, 2009
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TODAY will start out bright and at least partly sunny despite advancing higher layers of cloud in the west. Rain is likely to arrive by early to mid afternoon in the west, but it may remain dry much of the day in the southeast and east, although cloudier by afternoon. Winds will be picking up steadily after a rather calm start, to reach SSW 20-30 mph. Highs will range from 17 C in the northwest, to 20 C in the inland southeast.

TONIGHT periods of rain may become heavy and thundery at times, with winds continuing to blow steadily from the S to SW at 20-30 mph, and with potential for 20-30 mms of rain. Lows will be about 13 C.

SUNDAY is likely to start out quite wet and even stormy in places, then there could be some intervals of sunshine with a slightly less humid SW flow setting in, but more showers could then develop from west to east ... highs should be generally about 18 or 19 C.

MONDAY will bring somewhat cooler and showery conditions with blustery SSW winds turning more westerly by evening. Highs will be about 17 C.

TUESDAY will feature intervals of cloud and sun, a few showers, but this may be the calm before the storm as remnants of Bill arrive in the west by late in the day. Highs will be near 18 C.

WEDNESDAY looks quite windy and showery as the remnant low of hurricane Bill edges closer to Ireland and stalls near Donegal or Mayo (on the latest guidance). Winds may increase to 30-50 mph at times, with potential for some heavy showers and local thundershowers. Winds will start out southerly and veer westerly during the day (subject to updates as this is not a done deal yet). Highs would be about 19 or 20 C with quite a tropical humidity along for the ride.

Following the arrival of this system, several days of breezy, partly cloudy but unsettled weather are likely to follow as the low will probably not move away too far at first, but winds will tend to become more NW'ly over the passage of several days. This would suggest a rather cool spell of weather towards the weekend.

Update on my own weather here, it turned a lot cooler today with low cloud and drizzle much of the morning, breaking up somewhat to mostly cloudy with highs near 21 C.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Saturday, 8:20 p.m.
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Bursts of heavier rain will continue to move northeast across parts of Mayo, eastern Galway, Sligo, Roscommon and Leitrim towards the western half of NI this evening; local rainfalls could be about 30 mms with spot flooding. Elsewhere, the rain will either be less intense somewhat further to the south, or later to arrive in the case of south central to eastern Ireland, with a second wave of moisture coming ashore in the southwest soon, and spreading gradually to most other regions through the night.

Bill continues to send the same signals to the computer models, heading for Ireland as a 30-50 mph wind event late Tuesday and early Wednesday, with a tropical warm sector meaning that it could be close to 21 C and raining much of the day on Wednesday. Potential there for LOCALLY heavy rains but not likely to be a country-wide heavy rainfall, details of course won't be that easy to determine until the storm is approaching.

Current location is about 400 miles south of Boston and heading north, then later tonight north-northeast, to a position probably just offshore from Halifax Nova Scotia on Sunday. Will post a satellite image link on the Bill thread if you're interested in following its progress through Canadian waters and across Newfoundland on Monday morning.

My weather today is sunny with cloudy periods and refreshingly cooler at about 21 C. It really is criminal how much sunshine we get here considering our ocean is twice as big as yours, somebody should look into this. But then, almost defying logic, you have the nicer people. (I think so, anyway)

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 23 August, 2009
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TODAY, heavy rain will spread from Galway towards Ulster, with squally showers tracking further south from about Clare and north Kerry towards Dublin. This weather system could produce 25-40 mms of rain and, given the preceding rainfalls, has potential to create serious flooding along smaller rivers and low-lying urban areas. There may be thunderstorms embedded especially later this morning in Dublin and the southeast.

Few places will escape this rain but it may be more showery in some south coast locations, then by afternoon there will be a general drying trend with partly cloudy skies, strong SW breezes, and yet a few more showers could develop. Highs will reach about 18 C.

TONIGHT will continue breezy and partly cloudy with still the risk of a few showers mainly in western regions. Lows will be about 11 C, but could drop as low as 8 C in eastern districts if the skies clear long enough.

MONDAY will be quite windy at times with squally showers, once again heavier in western districts than elsewhere. Winds will become SSW 20-30 mph for most, and 30-50 mph over western Galway, Mayo, Donegal and some adjacent counties. Highs will reach about 15 or 16 C in the northwest, to 18 in the southeast.

TUESDAY may be somewhat improved as the remnants of Bill cross the eastern Atlantic, and a gap opens up between storms, to allow for some dry intervals, perhaps a few hours of sunshine, but still some chance of showers mainly in the northwest. Highs will reach about 19 C.

TUESDAY night and WEDNESDAY, Ireland may be dealing with Bill ... the latest guidance is suggesting more of a rain event as the stronger winds are being shown skirting the south coast and heading for southern England. Highs would be 18-20 C and considerable rain could fall. As this track continues to vary from one computer run to the next, I would say just to stay tuned and expect some sort of unsettled day from early morning to evening. Details will fall into place once Bill actually gets past Newfoundland on Monday.

LATER in the week, the weather is likely to remain unsettled, breezy and rather cool.

Watch for updates on the developing heavy rainfall and possible storm situations today.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Sunday, 0900
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Radar indicates some torrential rain now moving from about Tralee towards Limerick. This storm could develop strong wind gusts as well. This activity may continue further east through the late morning and mid-day hours.

Watch for further updates, here or on other threads in the forum.

Blame it on the

df1985 wrote: »

flying out of dublin airport wednesday at 6am,are flights likely to be disrupted due to big bad BILL?

be thankful it's not Shannon. Check with the airport/airline on Tuesday. It will also depend on your destination as to whether or not your flight will be able to land.

Have a safe trip.

kerry1960

Wet wet wet