Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 24 August, 2009
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This forecast will be basically a real shocker. Storms are lining up to bring frequent rain and wind to Ireland, starting with one already gearing up to arrive later today. After that, it's Bill (Tuesday night) and Bill's evil twin, a strong low heading in by Thursday night and Friday with the strongest winds of the summer.

TODAY, enjoy any morning sunshine in the east, because more heavy showers are forming in western counties, and these will advance steadily eastward, to be followed by heavier and more squally showers by afternoon and evening. Winds will increase rapidly in the western half of Ireland to reach SSW 30-45 mph. These will be less gusty in the southeast but by evening it will generally be quite stormy across the country. Rainfalls of 10-25 mms are likely (heavier in the west). Highs will reach about 17 C in most places.

TONIGHT the strong winds and showers will gradually move off to the east, with some clearing to follow, and lows near 10 C.

TUESDAY will start off fine in most places with some mid-day sunshine, and just moderate S to SW winds. Highs will reach about 20 C. Cloud and rain will be sweeping in as the remnants of Bill arrive by evening in the west.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY will be windy with periods of rain and the risk of a thunderstorm. Winds will increase rapidly overnight to reach SSE 30-50 mph with possibly higher gusts in the southwest. These will veer to WSW 30-55 mph during the day. It will also be warm and humid with highs near 20 or 21 C. Rainfalls of 30 mms are possible.

THURSDAY will have a brief respite of dry weather before "Bill's evil twin" arrives with very strong winds and heavy rainfalls likely. There could potentially be gusts to 65 mph in more exposed places, and 55 mph generally, as this storm crosses the northern parts of the country overnight into Friday. Squally showers and gales from the west will follow on Friday. Temperatures may start out around 15-17 C when this hits, then fall to near 12 C.

THE WEEKEND looks like a good time to mop up from all of this activity as a ridge of high pressure moves across the south and some dry, milder conditions prevail for a while, before more showers arrive later Sunday.

Updates as required ... my Sunday weather was partly cloudy with a high near 22 C. ... Bill's current location is just east of Newfoundland near 50N 50W and heading east at 45 mph. It is still creating hurricane force gusts over the open Atlantic, and is forecast to race east to a position 200 miles west of Shannon by Tuesday evening, and near Donegal Bay by midnight Tuesday.

rhonin

kerry1960 wrote: »

Wet wet wet

You sound like you enjoyed it

Blame it on the

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Monday, 24 August, 2009
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This forecast will be basically a real shocker. Storms are lining up to bring frequent rain and wind to Ireland, starting with one already gearing up to arrive later today. After that, it's Bill (Tuesday night) and Bill's evil twin, a strong low heading in by Thursday night and Friday with the strongest winds of the summer.

Sadly MT, the Irish weather never seems to shock me. Maybe just disappoint every now and again

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Monday, 9:30 p.m.
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Showers in central and western Ireland are rapidly weakening and many eastern sections may have a dry overnight period or nothing more than a trace to 1 mm of rain. Winds will remain fairly brisk all night from the SSW, and tomorrow still looks relatively pleasant in the south and east, with more frequent cloudy periods and showers in the northwest.

Bill is now about 50 N, 40 W which places the rain around 35 W, heading rapidly for western Ireland. I continue to think that Bill's remnant low should track across Donegal Bay and western Scotland on Tuesday night, bringing some moderately strong S to SW winds and rainfalls averaging about 20-30 mms in the west, tapering down to 10-20 mms in eastern Ireland. These are moderate impacts but after so much persistent rain in some places, it won't take much to renew flooding.

The next system continues to look stronger and you can refer to the previous forecast post for the thinking there, stressing that it will arrive in the west before mid-day Thursday and there won't be a long interval of dry weather between Bill and the "evil twin" to follow.

My weather by way of contrast is sunny with a high of 23 C. We're expecting some showers tomorrow here.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 25 August, 2009
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TODAY will continue rather showery in the west, but eastern Ireland could have some sunny intervals through rather extensive higher cloud, with a lower risk of showers. All areas will have a steady southerly breeze of about 10 to 20 mph, and by afternoon it should be pleasantly warm for most at about 20 C.

TONIGHT, heavier rain and wind (from post-tropical storm Bill) will arrive after sunset in the south-west and this will spread quickly to the rest of the country before morning. Winds will increase rather rapidly to SSE 20-40 mph with gusts to about 50 mph at times in the southwest and along the south coast. (Watch for updates as there is some risk of higher winds developing) ... Rainfalls will be about 20-30 mms by mid-day Wednesday and overnight lows will be near 13 C.

WEDNESDAY will continue cloudy with periods of rain and possible thundershowers, and winds will continue rather strong from the SW veering more westerly late afternoon, at about 20-40 mph in most places. Highsr gusts are possible but will likely be localized to heavy showers or thunderstorms. This risk will not be confined to the south and west but this is where strong winds are more likely. Highs will be around 21 C and total rainfalls could reach 30-40 mms in places.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT should be a brief calmer interlude between storms, and it may clear for a while before clouding over early morning. Winds will back to south again and fall off to about 15 mph.

THURSDAY will become very windy with squally showers developing. Winds will become SW 30-50 mph with some localized gusts to 60 mph especially in the northwest around evening. Highs will be near 18 C but it will begin to turn cooler by evening.

THURSDAY NIGHT and FRIDAY will remain quite windy (WSW 30-50 mph with some gusts to 60 in exposed areas) and cooler, with more squally showers, hail and thunder included. Temperatures will stay in a narrow range between 12 and 16 C.

The weekend should be improved for a while before more rain arrives on Sunday; temperatures will be around 20 C.

The plan is to keep a very close watch on developments after 6 p.m. as Bill approaches, so be sure to check in this evening or around midnight to read the updates here and on other Boards weather threads. Opinions vary as to how strong Bill may be ... I am taking a rather moderate approach at this point, but I will be watching for anything more severe developing. The system on Thursday looks stronger and I expect more extreme weather with that one. -- MTC

Added at 1645h ... Not seeing any unusual developments with post-tropical Bill, the stronger winds will probably hit more to the south coast than the west coast due to the track ... the low is as expected near 51 N 22 W heading for landfall in west-central Ireland but the stronger part of the circulation will sweep around towards Cork, Waterford and the nearby Bristol Channel and southwest England overnight. Even there, maximum wind gusts are likely to be 55-60 mph at most, as the storm is now weakening compared to its intensity all day out in the Atlantic. Still expecting general rainfalls in the 20-35 mm range and some spot flooding in western districts that have already had excessive rainfalls. Will continue to monitor the progress of Bill. The "evil twin storm" for Thursday still looking more potent on the most recent guidance. Updates as necessary ...

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Tuesday, 8:50 p.m.
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Briefly, rain has spread across western half of Ireland and is steady if not torrential so far. Heavier bands of rain are indicated on satellite imagery closer to the centre which is now around 52 N 18 W. No significant change in the forecasts above, will update again around 11 p.m.

My weather here today has been cloudy for most of the morning, a few light sprinkles of rain, trace accumulation, sun now trying to break through, 20 C at 1250 local time.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Monday, 11 p.m.
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No changes to above forecasts ... centre of low is currently near 52.5 N 15 W and the area of rain is mainly onshore now; winds should pick up slightly later tonight in all but northwest Ireland where they will fall off to near calm for a while. I noted that the 18z GFS shows somewhat stronger winds now for Thursday afternoon on the west coast. More forecast updates later tonight as needed.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 26 August, 2009
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TODAY, moderate to heavy rain will continue for several more hours this morning, bringing totals to about 40 mms in some southern counties, 30 mms elsewhere, and some localized flooding could occur, as well as a brief thunderstorm. Winds over the eastern half of Ireland will remain strong SE to S at about 30-45 mph, while further west, winds are veering to SW 25-40 mph. Much lighter winds accompany the low centre across Galway, Mayo and south Donegal, into border regions and Northern Ireland.

The afternoon may turn a little more pleasant with some sunshine possible at times, although scudding low cloud may try to hang on despite the warming of the atmosphere, so highs will be somewhere between 20 C under persistent cloud to 23 C if any longer sunny intervals materialize (there will be a brief interval of tropical air so it will also feel very humid by late morning and mid-day). A largely dry cold front is expected to clear the air completely by late afternoon and evening.

TONIGHT will be clear in many areas, possibly more cloudy in the northwest, and winds will briefly fall away to light, allowing temperatures to fall to about 10 or 12 C (and possibly lower in a few low-lying rural areas). Cloud will begin to increase by sunrise in the southwest.

THURSDAY will be a very active weather day, as "Bill's evil twin" makes his move on Ireland. This time, the rain will sweep in during the morning, strong southerly gales will develop, and veer to westerly gale to storm force winds especially over the west coast. Rainfall amounts of about 20-30 mms are possible, and winds will be in the range of 30-55 mph for many places, but could reach gusts of 70 mph in exposed west coast locations and on higher hills (80 mph mountain summits). With this sharp front, expect some thundery hail showers. Highs will reach 15-17 C but temperatures may fall to about 10-12 C in the strong westerly winds. All outdoor activities and especially hiking, sailing etc, are strongly discouraged especially in the afternoon hours as very stormy weather will set in rapidly.

THURSDAY NIGHT will remain rather windy and cool with more passing showers of hail or thundery rain, but some may notice a brief lull between the main storm of the day and a secondary surge of strong winds after midnight (this interval more obvious in the northwest). Lows will be about 7-8 C. Winds will continue generally WNW 30-50 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY will be a blustery, frequently changeable day with more rain in the exposed west and north than in the south and east, although any place could pick up at least 5 mms and some will get 15-20 mms. Winds will continue strong from the west at about 30-55 mph, and it will be much cooler than recent days, with highs of 14-16 C (feeling like about 10 C out in the wind). It may be a little more tolerable in Dublin and Wicklow around to Waterford due to sheltering effects of the inland hills, but not that great.

SATURDAY looks much improved over any of these days and most other Saturdays to boot, partly sunny, less windy (although still quite breezy in the north where showers could continue) and lows near 8 C, highs near 19 C.

SUNDAY could bring some more rain but it also promises to warm up, so this rain may be more in the northwest than elsewhere, as highs push for 23 C in the southeast.

NEXT WEEK looks a bit warmer and more settled -- the variable is the fate of a tropical system yet to be born, but which should come into existence tomorrow (Danny) in the Bahamas, move to Newfoundland by late this weekend but following a track further north than Bill, allowing (or caused by) a rising jet stream (hurray) which will give Iceland its long-awaited opportunity to be the storm capital of Europe this summer. If all that comes to pass, the weather could be quite a bit more pleasant next week in Ireland.

(and how could it not be?)

Joe Public

"a rising jet stream" - maybe it's well covered already here somewhere but what influences the jet stream and how is it tracked? is there a met type website that shows the jetstream and it's movements?

maquiladora

Joe Public wrote: »

"a rising jet stream" - maybe it's well covered already here somewhere but what influences the jet stream and how is it tracked? is there a met type website that shows the jetstream and it's movements?

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/jetstream.asp

weisses

And this is what MET eireann has to say about next week

The weather is not settling at all for early September and there will be more rain through the days of next week.

Me confused?? not @ all :eek:

M.T. Cranium ur better be right :P

Welsh Wizard

weisses wrote: »

And this is what MET eireann has to say about next week

The weather is not settling at all for early September and there will be more rain through the days of next week.

Me confused?? not @ all :eek:

M.T. Cranium ur better be right :P

He usually is, Met Eireann have been incorrect a few times since M.T. has been doing his excellent daily weather up date...

To be honest I use nothing but this thread for my weather outlook now..

Thanks agin M.T.... Great work and like so many on here, very grateful..

weisses

Yeah I noticed that when Met eireann forecasted gales AFTER my polytunnel blew over .... :eek: could they be on a three day week ???


Their Forecasting is way to general for a country like Ireland imo

glossy

Welsh Wizard wrote: »

He usually is, Met Eireann have been incorrect a few times since M.T. has been doing his excellent daily weather up date...

To be honest I do use nothing but this thread for my weather outlook now..

Thanks agin M.T.... Great work and like so many on here, very grateful..

me to, and pass on my new found knowledge to friends

M.T. Cranium

Well, thanks very much, I wasn't expecting this thread to be what it turned into, I started it more as a discussion forum for forecasts and figured it would get into a regular exchange of ideas ... that has happened a few times and I welcome that ... but it seems to have taken on a life of its own.

As to the weather next week, I wouldn't bet the farm on a sudden improvement, the jet stream does seem to be in a rising phase now, but much depends on the actual track taken by Danny (although to be honest, I view these things as jet stream dependent, so it would be making a false excuse to say that Danny dragged the jet stream back south if he comes a calling on Monday as some models suggest). With a name like Danny, I suppose it's inevitable; however, the official track does start off on an angle through Newfoundland that would direct Danny further north than the major models are currently doing. And beyond that glitch, there are signs of a gradual improvement even in models that show Monday-Tuesday being another wet and windy period. I may join that camp by forecast time tomorrow morning, but Danny is very much of a dubious proposition so far, he could hug the US east coast and try to move inland, which would signal a buckling jet stream pattern, or he could fail to organize much altogether and never make it past the subtropics. The official track that has come out is a sort of compromise between many possible outcomes, this storm is nowhere near as predictable as Bill was (yet).

Let's focus more on improvements later next week and into the following weekend, about ten days out -- there does seem to be some model agreement now that high pressure builds over the British Isles in that time frame.

Meanwhile, I continue to be concerned that tomorrow's fast-moving frontal system will have more impact than Bill and as it's coming through during the afternoon, more people will be out and about, doing their usual daily activities, so be forewarned that rapid changes may occur. The forecast updates later on should be interesting (I will post one around 11 p.m.)

My weather here today is back to sunshine and about 23 C (not quite there yet, it's just past eleven a.m.) ... warm but not too warm.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Wednesday, 11 p.m.
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Here's a full update on the forecast for tomorrow, after a mainly dry and rather calm night ...

Periods of rain will begin in the west around 0400h and spread gradually to other regions through the morning. This rainfall is not expected to be overly heavy, perhaps 5-10 mms on average. Winds will be S 10-20 mph at this stage. By noon to 2 p.m., some squally showers will develop in the west and winds will rapidly increase to WSW 30-50 mph, with some higher gusts. There may be some clearing but more squally showers could develop. The cold front will rapidly cross the country, we'll have to see how it holds together, it may only be active to about the central regions before becoming rather sporadic for Dublin and the southeast (which would be around 3 p.m.) ... but the northwest will also see a delayed onset of the windy weather as the surface low develops overhead there around 1-2 p.m., so for Galway, Mayo, Donegal and other northwest to north-central counties, expect these stronger winds to be delayed to about 4 p.m. ... Temperatures will probably peak at about 16 or 17 C after the rain ends, but may then fall off gradually.

Once the strong winds develop, they will likely fall off gradually to 20-40 mph for a while, then pick up again to 30-50 mph after midnight as a secondary front arrives. There could be higher gusts at times especially on exposed coasts and hills. Most of Friday will be similar, windy, cool with passing showers some containing hail. This will naturally die off to some extent in the east and southeast compared to other parts of the country. Highs will be around 15-17 C on Friday.

Anyway, it promises to be an interesting weather day, but especially in the western half of the country.

The frontal wave is currently forming up around 50 N 22 W and I've seen some ship reports from the flow developing behind the wave, suggesting a steady 40 knot wind already in place, and this despite the fact that the system has yet to deepen much. Remember, this won't seem like too much until the windshift passes your location, which is timed for about 1 p.m. southwest coast to 4 p.m. east coast. There won't be much development of the southerly wind ahead of this feature, just a steady light rain.

Next update with the regular forecast at 0500 or so.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 27 August, 2009
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TODAY will start out cloudy with light rain developing, and a southerly wind of about 10-20 mph. This rain may get heavier by mid-day and in western counties, there will be squally showers followed by gusty SW to W winds of 30-50 mph. It may clear then for a while, but more squally showers could follow. These changes will proceed rather quickly eastward but the squally nature of the showers may be less pronounced by afternoon on the east coast. Also the winds will be more like SW 20-35 mph there. The northwest will have a slight delay before the blustery winds arrive (around 3 p.m.) as the developing low moves across that region. Highs today will be about 17 C. Higher gusts may develop on exposed coasts and higher slopes, and caution is advised with all outdoor activities in those regions.

TONIGHT some may notice a brief lull in the strong winds but they will resume around midnight from more of a due westerly direction at 35-55 mph in the west, 20-40 mph in the east. More showers are likely, merging to periods of rain across Ulster. Lows will be generally around 7 or 8 C. It will feel quite a bit colder than in recent weeks.

FRIDAY will continue blustery and cool with passing showers, squally in some western districts. The better chances for sunshine will be from Dublin around the southeast coast to Waterford, but even here cloud will be frequent. Winds will average W or WNW 25-45 mph but some much higher gusts are possible at times in exposed areas. Highs will be only 14-16 C.

SATURDAY will probably be dry if somewhat cloudy but there could be a few brief showers in northern areas. It will remain somewhat cool with lows near 6 or 7 C and highs of 17 to 19 C.

SUNDAY promises to be somewhat warmer at least in the south, but cloud and rain will be skirting the northwest coast and may move into western and northern districts at times. Strong southwest winds will develop, and highs may reach 21 C.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY could remain windy and showery, the outlook is very uncertain because it depends on the development of a far-away tropical storm, Danny, which may follow a path somewhat similar to Bill, or could do one of two other things that would improve the weather outlook in Ireland, namely, it could fail to develop at all and die out near New England, or it could move much further north and this would be associated with a warmer southwest flow in general and a rising jet-stream. Sorry I can't really be too precise with this, the signals are quite mixed, but I do think the trend is towards warmer and more settled weather, with higher pressure likely to build in at least after this Danny episode comes and goes.

Updates may follow as I hope to track this front from about 1230 onwards, but if other Boards weather folk have some ideas to share, please do ...

Redsunset

meteoalarm issued for donegal



valid from 27.08.2009 07:05 CET Until 27.08.2009 23:59 CETRain

Awareness Level: Yellow

rainfall "Some heavy rain today in parts of west Ulster. 15 to 25 mm of rain likely."

Redsunset

yep looks heavy around 3pm.as if donegal needs for rain!!! more landslides probable i guess

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Thursday, 11 p.m.
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Maximum wind gusts reported today were 58 kts at Malin Head and 54 kts at Belmullet (preliminary). I think most other places in western Ireland probably saw peak gusts of about 40 kts, while in eastern Ireland it was more like 35 kts. You can add about 12% to those numbers to derive m.p.h.

At present, there's a fairly good scattering of brief but sharp showers (based on radar) across the western counties, and these may make some further eastward progress. It will stay quite breezy and winds will tend to pick up again around 0300h as a secondary trough arrives.

No major changes in the forecast outlook, Danny continues to torment the models and could be a player around Ireland by Tuesday night or Wednesday, but in any case, the flow does appear to be slowly lifting further north through next week, and although it may be quite breezy at times, I think the trend is going to be towards drier weather at least in the south and east, it may take a bigger lift to get the rain past the west and north.

My weather today (I feel bad about this) at 3 p.m. is sunny and 26 C.

We'll have to get this evened out.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Friday, 0400h
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Just an advance warning before I finish assembling a forecast today, some heavy showers that look thundery have developed across south-central Ireland moving rapidly southeast. These could contain some strong to damaging wind gusts as they head for the south coast and southeast counties.

More with the general forecast in a while ...

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 28 August, 2009
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TODAY will be cool and blustery with some heavy morning showers in the south, and more likely to form in other regions, particularly the northwest, but also there may be some sunny intervals. Highs will be about 15-16 C and winds will be WNW 25-45 mph with some higher gusts. Some of the passing showers could contain hail, thunder and could create mini-tornadoes in one or two places, but your chance of seeing one is something like one in a million. You may hear about one on the news though. The late afternoon and evening may turn fairly pleasant in the southwest as the wind there slackens.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy with longer clear intervals, although a few more showers could move through Ulster and possibly some areas further south. Lows will be rather cool in rural areas, 6-8 C, and 10 C in larger towns and near the west coast.

SATURDAY is likely to be partly cloudy in the south and more overcast in the north, where there may be a few brief showers. Rain is likely to be edging into the southwest by evening but it may be fairly light. Highs will reach about 19 or 20 C.

SUNDAY looks warmer but cloud and rain are going to be skirting the west and northwest coasts, so the best chance for dry weather and a bit of sunshine may be in the southeast. Winds will be picking up to about SW 20-30mph. Highs should reach 21 or 22 C in some eastern counties, but more like 18 C in the north and west.

MONDAY will probably be showery and breezy but there may be some intervals of sunshine, with winds staying in the southwest veering slowly to west, and highs near 19 C.

The rest of the week remains a bit uncertain as Danny continues to struggle to gain much of an active circulation; the models still try to bring this storm north into the jet stream and then east across the Atlantic mid-week, but at a higher latitude than Bill. This may not even be a real solution if Danny fails to develop. But if he does, the pattern still looks rather breezy and somewhat unsettled, although more for the north and west as the jet stream forces its way between Ireland and Iceland. I'm thinking that it may be a case of gradual improvement but it may turn out even better than that; also, the signals at present point to higher pressure around the following weekend.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 29 August, 2009
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TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few sunny breaks possible in the east this morning. Some light rain may develop over the west and northwest, but amounts should be slight. Winds will also be a lot less gusty than the past two days, although a steady 10-15 mph in some northern areas. Highs will be around 18 C in the south and 16 C in the north.

TONIGHT will become misty with periods of light rain becoming somewhat heavier by morning, with some fog developing, and rather warm lows near 14 or 15 C.

SUNDAY will bring mostly cloudy skies but there could be some sunny intervals especially in the south (inland as fog may shroud the coasts). It will become rather warm and more rain is possible at times especially on the west coast and across the north. Winds will increase to SSW 15-25 mph and highs will average 19-21 C.

MONDAY will become quite windy with showers followed by periods of rain later in the day, winds SW 20-40 mph, lows near 14 C and highs near 20 C.

TUESDAY is likely to be brighter with westerly winds, some passing showers, but longer sunny intervals, with highs near 17 C.

From WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY, the models are showing a fairly strong wind event that evolves from the storm that absorbs Danny over Newfoundland. There is quite a bit of uncertainty in this whole scenario so I will just say that it looks rather breezy and somewhat unsettled through this period, in case these stronger winds fail to develop to the model strength, although that would be quite strong (gusts to about 50 mph by late Thursday and Friday) ... we'll have to keep an eye on this, but in any case, it looks like the following weekend should be fairly warm and dry.

My weather on Friday was sunny to start, but cloudy after noon, with a few light showers around this evening. The high was about 25 C and it's supposed to stay about this warm for several more days here with mixed cloud and sunshine, and light east winds.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Saturday, 11 p.m.
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Well, not much on the radar, I thought maybe it was broken since this was a weekend.

The frontal system now approaching Ireland is quite weak and although it will generate considerable cloud, rainfall is likely to be spotty and in some places may not give much if any accumulation.

Otherwise, the forecast above seems okay, the models have been giving all sorts of different "looks" at the later part of the week as remnants of Danny (which never quite came together) and its associated low are likely to approach Ireland. For a while it was looking like a complex situation of lows transferring energy, winds heading around a large trough and trying to avoid Ireland ... but later model runs are returning to the earlier idea of a moderate wind event on Thursday or early Friday, and the way things have gone with model forecasts on this storm even 12-24 hours in advance, I would advise that this could all change yet again, so let's wait and see how things are looking around Sunday night. Almost anything could still happen in the time frame of Wednesday to Friday, from a severe gale to no impact at all, that's the sort of range of possible outcomes, which makes a moderate wind event the best choice at the moment.

My local weather today was sunny, very warm (borderline hot) at 27 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 30 August, 2009
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TODAY will be mostly cloudy, although the sun could make a brief appearance around mid-day, most likely in the inland southeast. There will be drizzly light rain in some eastern counties this morning, and light rain in west coast counties at times all day; this could develop into heavier showers by afternoon moving east through central districts (watch for updates). The winds will pick up a little to SSW 10-25 mph, and highs will reach about 19 or 20 C.

TONIGHT will likely see heavier showers and the chance of a thunderstorm. Lows will be about 14 C and winds will become SSW 15-25 mph.

MONDAY will be quite breezy to windy at times, SW 20-40 mph, and there could be several lines of heavy showers moving across the country, with a little warmer sunshine in between. Highs will reach about 20-21 C.

TUESDAY will become fresher and less humid with more of a west-southwest breeze, still quite gusty at 15-30 mph generally, with highs of about 18 C. Showers may still be fairly frequent in the north and west.

WEDNESDAY is now looking a little less windy than some of the speculations earlier, but still rather breezy, SW 20-40 mph with higher gusts, and frequent showers possible. This will be the remnants of failed tropical storm Danny, which needed some help from an ordinary low to get anywhere, and that "anywhere" seems to be about the same track that Bill took, a bit further north this time. This may yet change, and the range of possibilities is fairly large.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY are looking quite breezy as well because once the "Danny" event arrives, it seems likely to loop around and try for a second round of strong winds, this time from the W to NW, so this period may turn a bit cooler. After that, somewhat improved weather should develop about the end of Friday and into the weekend, so at least the timing is not so bad.

Updates from me or others (feel free to jump in) as the day progresses. Compared to most weekends, this one has not been too wet (yet) and I hope you have a pleasant Sunday.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Sunday, 7:45 p.m.
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Moderate to heavy rain gradually moving east from the western counties this evening, should cover much of Ireland eventually with rainfalls of about 20-30 mms, with more to come on Monday. Looks now that instead of a strong Danny trying to decide how far north to travel, it's more of a weak former Danny without the strength to alter the jet stream. The problem at this point is that the jet stream is lifting more rapidly over central North America than across the Atlantic so that is being postponed for a few more days; eventually I do think the weather pattern will improve towards the following week. Still not that sure of the details on Wednesday to Friday other than to say likely cooler than average, windy at times, and showery at times.

We have hazy sunshine here today, seems to be a bit of forest fire smoke mixing into this haze and causing some mild discomfort. The fires are hundreds of kms away to our northeast but that's also the general windflow so it is wafting down over the Coastal mountain ranges and into this region. About 24 C at noon local time.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 31 August, 2009
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TODAY will bring a risk of heavy rainfalls especially in the south, with amounts (including what has already fallen) reaching 40 mms in some places, and generally over 20 mms. Periods of rain will be fairly steady through the morning (once they begin for eastern counties) and then further showers or thunderstorms could develop later. Any sunshine would be very brief, and it will be warm and humid with highs near 20 C. Winds will be generally SSW at 15-25 mph.

TONIGHT will continue showery with rather strong southwest winds to 30 mph, and mild lows near 15 C.

TUESDAY will become fresher with occasional showers re-developing after a few hours of partly sunny conditions, and winds westerly at about 15-25 mph. Highs will be about 17-18 C.

WEDNESDAY will be cloudy with occasional rain or showers, moderate SW to W winds, and highs near 16 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will see a rather windy northwesterly flow with occasional showers, and highs continuing rather cool near 16 C. Overnight lows through this period will be around 8 C.

NEXT WEEKEND, there may be some improvement especially on Saturday, while Sunday could be back to mostly cloudy conditions, but both days will probably be warmer than the three days preceding them, with highs near 19 or 20 C.

Watch for updates on today's heavy rainfall.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Monday, 9 p.m.
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From now to midnight, the only risk for further heavy rain would likely be in Galway (city) and counties between there and Ulster. Further rains of 10-20 mms are likely in that region. Otherwise it looks fairly clear for most of southern and eastern Ireland this evening, with the slight risk of more showers developing probably well after midnight except in the southwest where they are now moving in, but these are spotty and would give only a few mms of rain. Will update again before midnight in case these develop further.

My local weather is sunny, hazy and quite warm at about 25 C. If we could average out the two climates this year, everyone would be happy (it is too dry here, too wet there).

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 1 September, 2009
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TODAY may start out dry with increasing cloud in eastern counties, but heavy showers have already developed in the southwest. Eventually most regions will have a period of these heavier showers (some with thunder and hail) with 10-20 mms likely on average, and more spot flooding possible. Highs will reach about 17 C and winds will pick up during and after the showers, starting southerly then veering to westerly 20-40 mph. With the stronger winds there could be some brief sunny intervals by late afternoon.

TONIGHT will bring some clear intervals at first, then low cloud will spread in followed by rain, mostly light this time, from remnants of "Danny." Lows will be around 8-10 C. Although this remnant storm is moving in, winds will actually drop off to lighter values for much of the night and tomorrow morning.

WEDNESDAY will continue cloudy with periods of rain, but only 5-15 mms is expected (on average), as winds slowly pick up to stronger values by afternoon, westerly 15-25 mph. Sunshine will be rare but by late afternoon it may at least be brighter. Highs for the day will be 15-17 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY are looking quite windy from the west to northwest, mainly in the 20-40 mph range but with some higher gusts. Both days will bring a few more showers and just brief sunny intervals, but rainfalls should be fairly light, 1-3 mms per day. Highs will be only 15-16 C and lows near 7 C.

SATURDAY could be fairly similar to the past Saturday, with more cloud than sun, but not much rain in most places, and moderate westerly breezes. Highs should be around 17 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will see another warming trend with some risk of another significant rainfall, although it's far enough out that I should mention some hope that this time, the fronts will sweep a bit further north in general. The models are definitely trending towards a dry spell after that, so keep your fingers crossed, there may be a nice spell of late summer weather after all (middle to end of next week).

networks

on the rte news weather forecast 2nite,he said indications of a good spell of dry weather looks promising 4 the wknd and following week,thank god!last nite he said bad weather 2 continue and no signs of better weather on the horizon????must be a miracle!!! that new zealand man who predicts the weather seems 2b spot on!!!:cool: