Vicious Storm likely this Saturday/Sunday

ninebeanrows · 07-12-2007 11:01pm

Looking at the ENS,s the exact location of the LP is actually more uncertain than i first thought.

The Operational having the center of the low further south than most.

mickger · 07-12-2007 11:09pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Indeed Longfield

Not often we have a storm off our coast with sustained winds of 70 knots or 80mph

Lads this looks rough for the weekend. Whats the very latest? Will it be very bad in the south east?????:eek:

Sierra Oscar · 07-12-2007 11:15pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Looking at the ENS,s the exact location of the LP is actually more uncertain than i first thought.

The Operational having the center of the low further south than most.

So is this good or bad, excuse my ignorance. How is it looking for the Limerick region?

rc28 · 07-12-2007 11:17pm

What are meteireann playing at. On their main forecast page they just say for saturday night-"windy at first". I know there is still some uncertainty about the low's exact track but i think they are taking way too much of a risk to not even mention the possible severity.http://www.met.ie/forecasts/
They have a separate warning out but then why to they appear to forget about it in the actual forecast.

Supercell · 07-12-2007 11:19pm

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

So is this good or bad, excuse my ignorance. How is it looking for the Limerick region?

I think you should keep checking online.

ninebeanrows · 07-12-2007 11:21pm

Yes if Limerick should be on alert, gusts above 70mph are likely through tomorrow night.

The track could change 100 miles north or south which could make a huge different as the core of intense winds is rather small.

Sierra Oscar · 07-12-2007 11:41pm

Thanks for the info!

ian_m · 07-12-2007 11:41pm

Cloud formations to the Southwest don't appear too unsettling in Weather in my Google Earth...

mickger · 07-12-2007 11:50pm

ian_m wrote: »

Cloud formations to the Southwest don't appear too unsettling in Weather in my Google Earth...

How you get that on google Earth????

ian_m · 08-12-2007 12:05am

You should have a 'Weather' layer under the 'Primary Database'. You can see cloud formations there. I'm using version 4.2.0198.2451 (beta).

Late RTE late Weather forecast just seemed to think we should just expect high winds in the south of the country...

boardsdotie · 08-12-2007 1:23am

ian_m wrote: »

You should have a 'Weather' layer under the 'Primary Database'. You can see cloud formations there. I'm using version 4.2.0198.2451 (beta).

Late RTE late Weather forecast just seemed to think we should just expect high winds in the south of the country...

BBC Michael Fish 1987, nuff said

SpitfireIV · 08-12-2007 3:29am

boardsdotie wrote: »

BBC Michael Fish 1987, nuff said

Thats reassuring :eek:...:p

Gillo · 08-12-2007 8:09am

I didn't think Google Earth was a live system, aren't they just archived pictures. As for the weather, it's dirty enough at the moment around Balbriggan. Have a xmas party to go to tonight, it's out looking good! Does anyone have a link for working out the symbols in those weather chart's I can remember the basic's from school but that is about it.

Sierra Oscar · 08-12-2007 8:35am

Still quite clam down here in Limerick.

Damomanye · 08-12-2007 8:55am

yes it looks like the latest medels take the path of this low even more south. At this stage it's center is going to track over mayo and down over Dublin.
00z Run showing L center over Dub

I think that would mean not as strong a winds for us in Limeick as previously thought sierra Oscar.

Yesterday XC weather was touting winds at Shannon Airport sunday to be around 40 - 42mph but looking this morning i see they have refined there predictions to max's of 35mph.

DOCARCH · 08-12-2007 10:11am

From UKMO

Shannon
Storm warning 0800 Sat 08 Dec
At 080000 UTC, low 57 north 30 west 968 expected 54 north 11 west 962 by 090000 UTC. Winds will reach storm force 10 or violent storm force 11 in the southwestern semicircle between 50 and 400 miles from the centre until 081800 UTC, and between 150 and 600 miles from the centre from 081800 UTC. Winds will reach hurricane force 12 in the southwestern quadrant between 100 and 300 miles from the centre between 080900 UTC and 090300 UTC. New low expected 57 north 07 west 960 by same time. Winds will reach storm force 10 in the southern quadrant within 70 miles of the centre until 081800 UTC and in the western semicircle between 70 and 150 miles from the centre from 090000 UTC.

ninebeanrows · 08-12-2007 10:22am

Interesting to note the first loop currently over the west coast, like a little storm in itself while the main storm is still way out to sea.

With regards to the first loop, will be interesting to see the windspeeds in the next few hours.

Damomanye · 08-12-2007 10:24am

DOCARCH wrote: »

From UKMO

Shannon
Storm warning 0800 Sat 08 Dec
At 080000 UTC, low 57 north 30 west 968 expected 54 north 11 west 962 by 090000 UTC. Winds will reach storm force 10 or violent storm force 11 in the southwestern semicircle between 50 and 400 miles from the centre until 081800 UTC, and between 150 and 600 miles from the centre from 081800 UTC. Winds will reach hurricane force 12 in the southwestern quadrant between 100 and 300 miles from the centre between 080900 UTC and 090300 UTC. New low expected 57 north 07 west 960 by same time. Winds will reach storm force 10 in the southern quadrant within 70 miles of the centre until 081800 UTC and in the western semicircle between 70 and 150 miles from the centre from 090000 UTC.

I think those force 12 winds they speak of will be gusts...if they're sustained...then im off to write my will:D

arctictree · 08-12-2007 10:29am

GFS tracks the centre of the storm over Wicklow at 6am

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn241.png

A

DOCARCH · 08-12-2007 11:02am

Damomanye wrote: »

I think those force 12 winds they speak of will be gusts...if they're sustained...then im off to write my will:D

Remember this forecast is for the sea area of Shannon. The area they forecast will recieve force 12 winds is way out to sea - this would be the sustained wind forecast. Winds over the sea tend not gust (unless seas are exceptionaly huge) - its really the influence of land (mountains, etc.) that cause gusts.

Still will be very windy your way - maybe consider the contents of you will.:D

Sierra Oscar · 08-12-2007 11:10am

Its beginning to get windy here in East Limerick.

Mothman · 08-12-2007 12:35pm

Damomanye wrote: »

I think those force 12 winds they speak of will be gusts...if they're sustained...then im off to write my will:D

As Docarch says, they are sustained. Gusts are generally not defined using Beaufort Scale

Damomanye · 08-12-2007 12:47pm

Mothman wrote: »

As Docarch says, they are sustained. Gusts are generally not defined using Beaufort Scale

ah yes i see now. i got mixed thinking the forecast was for the shannon area but as pointed out it's the sea area. my bad.

There was a 56 mph gust at 12.30 out at shannon XC says.

kkontour · 08-12-2007 1:23pm

In sligo Ox mountains,
Was clam but wet this morning until about 11:30, then the wind just started.
No measurement equipment but it is gusting quit strong. My satellite dish is taking quite a hammering.
Hope its still intact for the hatton v mayweather fight.

Damomanye · 08-12-2007 1:24pm

The Met have finally updated their sites forecast to warn people of the severity of this storm.

"Further showers or longer spells of rain overnight, heaviest in parts of the west and southwest, with further flooding possible. But cold over parts of the north and east with some frost for a time, as winds moderate. But it will get extremely windy or stormy over much of Munster and west Connacht, with gale force northwest winds giving some severe gusts in places before the night is over. Lowest temperatures 1 to 5 C., in the east and north, but 5 to 8 C., elsewhere."

Was it yesterday they had ' windy for a time' forecasted for the same timeslot?

ninebeanrows · 08-12-2007 1:46pm

The storm bears down on Ireland..

http://www.sat24.com/frame.php?html=homepage

Winds already high across the country with widespread 50mph gusts.

ninebeanrows · 08-12-2007 2:05pm

The storm at 1345, now has 60mph sustained winds around its southwestern quadrant.

Mothman · 08-12-2007 2:27pm

Damomanye wrote: »

The Met have finally updated their sites forecast to warn people of the severity of this storm.

"Further showers or longer spells of rain overnight, heaviest in parts of the west and southwest, with further flooding possible. But cold over parts of the north and east with some frost for a time, as winds moderate. But it will get extremely windy or stormy over much of Munster and west Connacht, with gale force northwest winds giving some severe gusts in places before the night is over. Lowest temperatures 1 to 5 C., in the east and north, but 5 to 8 C., elsewhere."

Was it yesterday they had ' windy for a time' forecasted for the same timeslot?

Yes but they had this warning. Note when issued

Issued at 07 December 2007 - 12:37
Severe Weather late Saturday-Early Sunday

Very windy and at times very wet weather over the weekend with potentially stormy conditions for a time overnight Saturday and early Sunday, mainly in Connacht and Munster, with northwest winds of mean speeds 35 to 40 knots (65 to 75 km/h) with gusts of 70 to 80 knots (130 to 150 km/h) possible. Valid 00:00 to 15:00 9-Dec-2007

Also the evening before on the television forecasts, that there would be severe winds across the south. So IMO they were well up with the game with their forecasting.

For me the issue is that the warnings section is not given enough prominance.

Only a strong breeze in east Wicklow with max gust of 38mph.

Damomanye · 08-12-2007 2:41pm

on the warnings section is not given enough prominance, I couldn't agree more there.

Sierra Oscar · 08-12-2007 2:42pm

I was just checking out the ESB faults for the Munster region - there are quite a few, 15-20. I wonder is this related to the storm?

rc28 · 08-12-2007 3:11pm

Strong gusts here for most of the afternoon. Fields are really flooded after the very heavy rain this morning. Sunny spells now

rc28 · 08-12-2007 3:33pm

http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/1208/weather.html
Plenty of flooding overnight. The waterlogged ground will only make things worse for the west and southwest tonight because trees will fall down more easily.

rc28 · 08-12-2007 4:05pm

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I was just checking out the ESB faults for the Munster region - there are quite a few, 15-20. I wonder is this related to the storm?

Do you have a link to that page, esb homepage seems to be down for me.

ian_m · 08-12-2007 4:07pm

Sun is setting now. Anyone got any updates? Beginning to look impressive in google earth.

Anybody think its over-rated?

Sierra Oscar · 08-12-2007 4:09pm

rc28 wrote: »

Do you have a link to that page, esb homepage seems to be down for me.

It is on their informatin helpline - 18500372999

Seems the power is gone over at the grannies.:(

rc28 · 08-12-2007 4:11pm

ian_m wrote: »

Sun is setting now. Anyone got any updates? Beginning to look impressive in google earth.

Anybody think its over-rated?

Keep up to date on the following forum(boards doesn't have as many weather members)-http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=42377&st=289&gopid=1125658&#entry1125658

M.T. Cranium · 08-12-2007 4:46pm

Having a close look at 12z model runs for various global models ... the situation is still very much too close to call for some parts of Ireland. I think the very strong winds are more likely than not in regions lying south of a diagonal line from about Westport, north of Galway, then the centre of the country and out through the southeast corner. So if you're north of this, the winds may back around to a more easterly direction as the low approaches, and drop off to much lighter values, then pick up again on Sunday from the north.

If you're south of that line, expect SW then WSW winds to increase steadily through the night and peak at around 0400 to 0700 hours from a westerly direction, sustained near 50 or 55 mph and gusting to 80 or even 90 mph. Huge waves and surf will come in during the night and last through tomorrow, but the winds will gradually veer more to NW and drop off slightly to 40 mph gusting to about 65 or 70 (in this windier zone south).

There could also be some nasty hail squalls after midnight in some southern districts. Take care if you're in the firing line -- I don't think there is much chance now that the whole country will be spared strong winds as the low is crossing 20 W at about 56.5 N and still heading more east than ESE. The turn to ESE will come around midnight, taking the low towards Donegal. It will probably cross parts of Donegal and Northern Ireland towards the Isle of Man, but the very strong winds do not extend right into the centre as with a hurricane, but to about 70 miles from the centre based on satellite imagery.

If you can run a satellite animation, have a look at how fast the clouds are streaking on the southwest side of this monster now, that's what is heading for such places as Tralee, Limerick, Valentia and Cork later on. The low does begin to lose a bit of its punch after about 0300, but still, 80% of this storm at its peak will be more than enough.

maquiladora · 08-12-2007 5:40pm

UK MET :

Shannon

Gale warning 1533 Sat 08 Dec

Westerly severe gale force 9 increasing storm force 10 imminent, increasing hurricane force 12 soon

Shipping forecast 1725 Sat 08 Dec

Wind - West veering northwest severe gale 9 increasing hurricane force 12 for a time.

Sea State - Very high occasionally phenomenal.

_______________________________________________

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/shipping_forecast.html?area=Shannon&type=All&x=9&y=12

Mothman · 08-12-2007 5:50pm

It's not often one sees Hurricane force 12 in gale warnings, and I never even knew "phenomenal" existed!

Supercell · 08-12-2007 5:50pm

Wow , never ever heard a sea state described as "occasionally phenomenal" in my life before. Batten down the hatches southern and western coastal communities.

Damomanye · 08-12-2007 5:56pm

maquiladora wrote: »

UK MET :

Shannon

Gale warning 1533 Sat 08 Dec

Westerly severe gale force 9 increasing storm force 10 imminent, increasing hurricane force 12 soon

Shipping forecast 1725 Sat 08 Dec

Wind - West veering northwest severe gale 9 increasing hurricane force 12 for a time.

Sea State - Very high occasionally phenomenal.

_______________________________________________

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/shipping_forecast.html?area=Shannon&type=All&x=9&y=12

oh for the love of mary...were goin to be blow out of it.One thing garunteed tonight is the emergency services will be very busy with downed poles/trees/ariels ect...

Sierra Oscar · 08-12-2007 5:59pm

Six 1 news starts now - lets see what they say...

maquiladora · 08-12-2007 5:59pm

Mothman wrote: »

It's not often one sees Hurricane force 12 in gale warnings, and I never even knew "phenomenal" existed!

Smooth Wave height less than 0.5 m
Slight Wave height of 0.5 to 1.25 m
Moderate Wave height of 1.25 to 2.5 m
Rough Wave height of 2.5 to 4.0 m
Very rough Wave height of 4.0 to 6.0 m
High Wave height of 6.0 to 9.0 m
Very high Wave height of 9.0 to 14.0 m
Phenomenal Wave height more than 14.0 m

homah_7ft · 08-12-2007 6:01pm

That sounds like some scary waves. Glad I'm not at sea tonight!

Snowbie · 08-12-2007 6:01pm

Mothman wrote: »

It's not often one sees Hurricane force 12 in gale warnings, and I never even knew "phenomenal" existed!

In fact i never heard of the two around our waters before.The fastnet rock storm was violent storm 11

rc28 · 08-12-2007 6:08pm

Further to the flooding here, NI got hit too;http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/northern_ireland/7134241.stm

Damomanye · 08-12-2007 6:08pm

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Six 1 news starts now - lets see what they say...

Not even a mention on the headlines. interesting.

Paddy.1 · 08-12-2007 6:13pm

Met Eireann of Radio 1 downgrading storm to an extent. Looks as if only coastal regions of the southwest will get anything like a force 11 tonight and tomorrow but 'damaging gusts' could occur anywhere.

Sierra Oscar · 08-12-2007 6:17pm

Damomanye wrote: »

Not even a mention on the headlines. interesting.

Very interesting - its like they are playing it down. (Met)

Takeshi_Kovacs · 08-12-2007 6:23pm

Pretty damn windy out there at the moment, pressure is reading 987.4 currently

Vicious Storm likely this Saturday/Sunday

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