FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
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I posted this in the general chat but the accumulated totals between now and this time next week are similar on both GFS and ECM. It's not just heavy thundery showers making up these totals either. Monday is maybe more showery but Tuesday and Thursday it's looking like lighter, persistent rain and Friday is looking like heavy persistent rain in late afternoon (based on current models).
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A very zonal westerly setup looks certain for the remainder of July with average or slightly cooler than average temperatures and plenty of rain or showers. The GFS 00z has a lovely Azores high sitting over us by the end but this is very much an outlier. Hopefully within the next week we will see another spell of 3 to 4 settled days developing before the end of July.
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Not the sort of ensemble you want to be seeing in the middle of Summer, an overall cooling trend and things staying wet and unsettled from start to finish. Once we get the warmish air out of the way by Saturday we're into a cool north-westerly pancake flow from the Atlantic for the forseeable future. I hope we see a more positive change develop next week, that this isn't summer going down the tubes.
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For the sunny south-east the next few days don't look all that sunny.
A good chance of rain over the next few days up until the 22nd of July. After that we are into the unreliable timeframe so alot of scatter in the models. However the one change I see in the unreliable timeframe is a move to dryer conditions. The 00z and all of yesterdays output was definitely wetter than this from start to finish. There is also a hint that temperatures may pick up briefly between the 24th and 26th of June, possibly early signs of a brief push of warm air again.
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I don't know Gonzo, ECM is going for decent amounts of sunshine for the SE all this week and next week. GEM is backing that up too. It won't be clear blue skies for sure, there's plenty of precipitation in the coming week but the following week looks relatively dry with plenty of sunny spells (using Rosslare as location here).
The dark blue line here is the average of the ECM ensembles showing approx. 11 hours of sunshine per day for next weekend and beyond, and the second graph showing little amounts of precipitation for the same period. This is specific to Rosslare though, the rest of the country could be completely different.
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