Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion Spring /Summer 2025

Possibility of warnings tomorrow if enough thunderstorms break out . Fairly good potential with enough vorticity in the atmosphere and cold air aloft, towards the surface a lot of convergence zones aiding lift along with the warming day. Enough moisture in the atmosphere to produce heavy convective showers.

'A level 1 was issued for parts of S Ireland mainly for a few tornado events and heavy rain.'

... S Ireland ...

'A level 1 for an augmented funnel/short-lived tornado and flash flood risk was issued for the noon/afternoon hours. The background environment offers decent LL CAPE along a slow moving LL confluence zone for a few spin-ups especially during the more discrete phase along any LL convergence zone. Betimes, clustering convection poses an heavy rain risk with isolated flash flooding possible. The risk decays after sunset.'

I reckon the charts would be highlighting the area below as the main area supporting thunderstorm activity although some could be quite isolated, could get isolated storms outside of this area also and a few might just migrate across in to the NE . S Leinster might have the most shower activity and it is where thunderstorms might break out first and then taking in parts of Connaught and parts of Munster . Could get some areas reporting localized flooding and could get reports of hail in a few spots.

Upper cold pool and LL convergence in abundance with decent vorticity and transiting trough all aiding instability, noticeably not as warm tomorrow but enough heating getting into the high teens in the afternoon in parts especially the W and NW along with topographical lift all helping to produce convection of which some will be electrified mainly from a line around Limerick up to the North of the country and could get some thunderstorms elsewhere also like Tipp/ N Cork but less of a chance according to the ECM, some of the models showing heavy convective rain spreading more into the the SE so not a lot of agreement between the models, might have to see later model output for more cross model agreement.

I would think under the upper cold pool would have the most chance of thunderstorm activity tomorrow.

Yeah Dazler, could get thunderstorms fairly widespread tomorrow , hard to pinpoint as models showing different scenarios, maybe more scattered than I was thinking earlier. Models showing some heavy rain in parts tomorrow, could be a bit more than heavy just showers, some of which could merge into some more prolonged rain in parts. I believe the ECM and other models show the heaviest rainfalls where the main shortwave trough line lingers the longest, its not all the picture though as convection will form also away from it where warming occurs during the afternoon under the upper trough. Yes think there could be warnings issued again tomorrow and from looking at the models thinking we could be getting reports of localized spot flooding.