FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2024/2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

The GFS has shifted the projected the low a good bit nprth and has hurricane force winds hitting the west coast at 144h.

GEM and ECM has a similar system but far enough out to sea to not impact the country.

ICON keeps it south.

GFS on xcweather has some exceptional gusts. It just does 3 hour intervals for Friday so gusts could be slightly higher/lower either side. Glosh in mayo gust 105mph/168km/h. Average winds 70mph/113km/h. Belmullet gust 102mph/164km/h.

ECM 929mb gets closer on this run, the very worst of the winds stay offshore but it’s a fine margin. Storm conditions for western counties. ECM also has a snow to rain event away from the south and east coast early Friday.

Most likely scenario starting Friday is for high impact weather. That low on the GFS is alarming if we actually manage to get a low that deep. That would do some damage acros the western and northwestern half of Ireland.

So many saw my comments last night on the potential of this one. Here's this evenings 18z gfs, just out. Nuff said

18z, less concentrated, more widespread violent winds across the country.

On the risk of stormy weather impacting Ireland and Britain later next week, there is significant differences in output from the main models. It will be midweek before we get a clearer indication of what our weather will look like in 6-7 days.

What we do know is that a low pressure system will form off the coast of Newfoundland on Wednesday and will undergo rapid cyclogenesis. It's exact track thereafter is up in the air, both literally and figuratively.

The below image tracks the latest runs from the ECM, GFS, UKMO, GEM and JMA models for midday on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. The GFS is the only model at present to chart a course over land. The other models, as is often the case with deep areas of low pressure in our neck of the woods, take a more northerly trajectory offshore of Ireland.

One to watch but certainly not one to overemphasise at present.

Yes, that's a super graphic Wolf. There looks to be an extreme atlantic storm almost certain for next week but where it tracks and how quickly it unravels is still up for grabs. It just goes to show what could and did happen in the past, if a beast like that hit Ireland full on.

ECM, GFS fairly rough for the south of the country this morning. ICON a small bit further north. Possible red warnings for at least the south west coast going by this morning's runs but there will be more changes in track and intensity to come.

Just looked at his Facebook page. It's like a cult with his followers and their comments. Of course boring weather doesn't get the same interaction so i get the hyperbole buts let's wait until it's in a reliable time frame with track more certain.

Knownothing about the lad you say made it, but it's a useful graphic.

GFS

I know it's just 5 days away but I'm still in monitor mode and gonna stock up on candles and batteries incase

Looks further North on latest Ecm, then round 2 on the Monday.

The 12z runs are showing a trend of the storm centre staying out to sea and the strongest winds mainly affecting the western side of the country. None of them showing a cross-country track like the earlier runs, but still some potentially very damaging wind speeds affecting parts of the country. UKMO showing 160kmh gusts for coastal Galway, Clare and Kerry for a time! That model is a bit like ICON though and overcooks the wind speeds this far out. The jet stream is looking pretty intense directly over us Friday afternoon so will give this one plenty of power.

GFS some transient snow NW early Friday. In to Saturday and more notable snow for N Leinster/midlands in particular

7am Sunday and more snow for N Leinster

Come Sunday evening a fall for Connacht and Ulster

2 days later

Melted come the 30th