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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2024/2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Gonzo

Mod Note:

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward for Winter 2024/2025.

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

Thanks

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Winter is finally here! The opening first 2 weeks of December appear average to mild in terms of temperatures. At the moment not much in the way of excitement in the models. We look to be mostly Atlantic dominated and mild with a chance of high pressure building at times.

It could become fairly unsettled towards the end of next week with possibly strong winds.

On this particular run high pressure tries to make a move towards us but never really gets there, instead we have winds coming around the high from the north-west.

Winds turn northerly very briefly allowing much colder air to stink southwards over us for a limited time.

The northerly quickly gets cut off and we go back to a mildish North-westerly airflow.

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ascophyllum

The GFS has shifted the projected the low a good bit nprth and has hurricane force winds hitting the west coast at 144h.

GEM and ECM has a similar system but far enough out to sea to not impact the country.

ICON keeps it south.

squarecircles

Alarming.

.Donegal.

GFS on xcweather has some exceptional gusts. It just does 3 hour intervals for Friday so gusts could be slightly higher/lower either side. Glosh in mayo gust 105mph/168km/h. Average winds 70mph/113km/h. Belmullet gust 102mph/164km/h.

ECM 929mb gets closer on this run, the very worst of the winds stay offshore but it’s a fine margin. Storm conditions for western counties. ECM also has a snow to rain event away from the south and east coast early Friday.

Dazler97

The BBC weather at the end of their run has the low about 200 miles west of Galway but even this far out there keeping an eye on it they said

Donegal Ken

Most likely scenario starting Friday is for high impact weather. That low on the GFS is alarming if we actually manage to get a low that deep. That would do some damage acros the western and northwestern half of Ireland.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123070708#Comment_123070708

Yes and after storm Darragh people 2 Miles away where without power for a week thankfully mine went for 20 hours but went off a few times up till 5 days later

JanuarySnowstor

So many saw my comments last night on the potential of this one. Here's this evenings 18z gfs, just out. Nuff said

Donegal Ken

To be honest it was looking likely it was going to turn unsettled for the last week and a few posters have spoke about the risk over the past few days . Talking about warnings at this stage is to far out and jumping the gun. It's going to be the middle of next week before any models get a real grip on this as there will be alot at play and swapping and changing . There is a high potential for a high impact storm but let's just watch the model runs for now and what the throw out.

squarecircles

18z, less concentrated, more widespread violent winds across the country.

JanuarySnowstor

JMA 18Z last frame available is nudging South again. What a Monster!!

This in uncharted territory imo

WolfeEire

On the risk of stormy weather impacting Ireland and Britain later next week, there is significant differences in output from the main models. It will be midweek before we get a clearer indication of what our weather will look like in 6-7 days.

What we do know is that a low pressure system will form off the coast of Newfoundland on Wednesday and will undergo rapid cyclogenesis. It's exact track thereafter is up in the air, both literally and figuratively.

The below image tracks the latest runs from the ECM, GFS, UKMO, GEM and JMA models for midday on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. The GFS is the only model at present to chart a course over land. The other models, as is often the case with deep areas of low pressure in our neck of the woods, take a more northerly trajectory offshore of Ireland.

One to watch but certainly not one to overemphasise at present.

coillsaille

Excellent graphic Wolf!

Robwindstorm

Yes, that's a super graphic Wolf. There looks to be an extreme atlantic storm almost certain for next week but where it tracks and how quickly it unravels is still up for grabs. It just goes to show what could and did happen in the past, if a beast like that hit Ireland full on.

Donegal Ken

The Icon 06z run trying to blow the western half of Ireland of the map although we do know it can over do it on the gusts at times. It's growing ever more likely this morning that we will have a very strong storm Friday and potentially some snowfall depending on the track of the low.

I think it fair to say that there is good agreement on the models it's just trying to iron out the track of the low pressure system now.

Met Eireann are also suggesting "There is potential for spells of impactful weather, particularly towards the end of the week, with heavy rain and strong winds possible at times during the period."

TheMilkyPirate

ECM, GFS fairly rough for the south of the country this morning. ICON a small bit further north. Possible red warnings for at least the south west coast going by this morning's runs but there will be more changes in track and intensity to come.

ascophyllum

No, this is not the National Hurricane Centre, this is Cathal Nolan who is now mimicking the NHC and producing a hurricane chart using the exact same language as they do, I wonder does he know that this is not a tropical system and does not have an eyewall?

A knowledgeable poster here made a very useful chart yesterday showing the possible paths of the low and he has obviously seen it and made his own.

munsterlegend

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123072515#Comment_123072515

Just looked at his Facebook page. It's like a cult with his followers and their comments. Of course boring weather doesn't get the same interaction so i get the hyperbole buts let's wait until it's in a reliable time frame with track more certain.

squarecircles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123072515#Comment_123072515

OMG that is so,so, utterly tragic, hes using the wrong pantone colour for the blue shading and the typeface is slightly off.

Neddyusa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123072515#Comment_123072515

Knownothing about the lad you say made it, but it's a useful graphic.

squarecircles

latest gfs, severe storm incoming…

.Donegal.

GFS

squarecircles

widespread damaging gusts across the country on the gfs 12z

Dazler97

I know it's just 5 days away but I'm still in monitor mode and gonna stock up on candles and batteries incase

pauldry

Hopefully the strongest winds will stay in places like Mace Head and Belmullet and places on the Wild Atlantic that are built for this. Seems a lot of the winds stay off shore but it will be a stormy day just hope it's not Daragh esque. Rather impressive that GFS all month has shown storminess around the 24th. Will have to keep an eye on this but it doesn't look great. The only saving grace is we had another storm like this in Sligo and bar a few trees down we didn't get too badly affected.

downwiththatsor

Looks further North on latest Ecm, then round 2 on the Monday.

Ros4Sam24

Esb could be very busy, especially if there is multiple rounds of winds😬

adocholiday

The 12z runs are showing a trend of the storm centre staying out to sea and the strongest winds mainly affecting the western side of the country. None of them showing a cross-country track like the earlier runs, but still some potentially very damaging wind speeds affecting parts of the country. UKMO showing 160kmh gusts for coastal Galway, Clare and Kerry for a time! That model is a bit like ICON though and overcooks the wind speeds this far out. The jet stream is looking pretty intense directly over us Friday afternoon so will give this one plenty of power.

Dazler97

Met Office run showing very tightly packed isobars on Friday afternoon, centre of the low about 100 km off sligo, only runs till this time currently

.Donegal.

GFS some transient snow NW early Friday. In to Saturday and more notable snow for N Leinster/midlands in particular

7am Sunday and more snow for N Leinster

Come Sunday evening a fall for Connacht and Ulster

2 days later

Melted come the 30th

pauldry

Certainly a lot of "impactful" weather on the way from the end of the week. Will be changes in the detail as time goes on. What's showing now is likely close enough but maybe with a moderation in everything be that wind, snow, or rain.