FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2024/2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

GFS 12z is going close to a 2 week cold spell but in reality I think we'll be doing well to get a full week out of it. Much better than the 6z which had a bit of a wobble. In about an hour we should know how the 12z operational is performing against all the other GFS members.

Also worth noting the AO forcast is really tanking negative over the next week, almost record breakingly so, and the NAO also going moderately negative so northern blocking is going to be very much in business for the first half of January.

GFS 12z continues to show a substantial warming taking place but not an SSW, however the warming looks significant and extensive. The PV doing everything it can to stay in business but if warmings like this persist past mid January the PV will come under alot of pressure, could we see an SSW before the end of January?

PV currently

PV January 9th.

We Finish up mid January with another warming taking place over Europe merging with the warming over Sibera and the PV displaced over the United States and Canada.

IF we were to roll on an extra few days this could potentially enter the poles and split the PV into 2 lobes. This is something I'd love to see before the end of January as SSWs in February are generally too late and affect the Spring rather than the tale end of Winter.

In my eyes the past few days has been the most interesting winter related model watching we have had since January/February 2018.

NAO/AO forecast has updated and the AO now not looking at record breakingly negative as yesterday but still a fairly moderate negative signal for the start of January.

NAO not much change since yesterday, looking relatively negative and for us that's important in the potential for northern blocking to affect our part of the world.

this is looking very interesting but it is over 2 weeks away.

GFS finishes up January 15th with us still in mostly sub zero temperatures and snow risk increasing, we shall see.

I don't know about snow over the next few weeks but we're certainly going to see alot of frost and expensive heating bills.

CFS keeps us locked in the freezer until January 18th/19th.

Icon 12z has given up on the swift return to mild.

GFS 12z is in the middle of the pack in terms of cold, sometimes on the warmer end, many of the GFS ensemble members go and stay colder than the 12z operational run.

After we get the rain out of the way on New Years Day a mostly dry signal after that.

CFS monthly charts for January are issued every day throughout December and we just had the last one today and if the CFS is correct it's forecasting a colder than average January for us with blocking close to Greenland for the majority of the month, this is rarity and something we rarely see from the CFS.

GFS 12z is one of the milder GFS runs and becomes a bit of a mild outlier the further on we go into January.

Icon turns it slightly milder for the weekend and then reloads the cold from Monday and into next week.

GEM is cold until Monday/Tuesday and then surges a blowtorch southerly directly very far northwards into the second half of next week which in turn builds a Scandinavian high and has a very cold and unstable easterly right at the end which could affect us further down the line.

Absolute model chaos going on right now. An absolute forecasting nightmare.