Election to be called Fri - predict outcome

FF aren't the kingmaker's, they are the kings in this instance!

With the sheer number of TDs every party was proposing there were loads of routes for SF to come to power without any help from a civil war party. The electorate decided they want FFG in power however

I'm only using simple maths to come to these conclusions

People talking about a coalition of the left and even the elected members of these parties cannot agree on what they want.

Labour`s Ged Nash has today accused SF of having a neck looking for a coalition of the left with Labour now when the election is over, when they would not tell their supporters to transfer to Labour before the election, and now we have Labour`s Maire Sherlock on Katie Hannon not interested being in a government coalition unless it includes what other left wing parties want. Sinead Gibney of the Social Democrates, who were supposedly the party that wanted this agreement of the left, made it clear she hadn`t a clue what Sherlock was on about and that the SD would enter talks based on their agenda alone.

It seems that when there looked as there would be a need for either or both to form a government they were talking tough. Now where neither are needed they are fighting among themselves, with some members of each chomping at the bit to get into government and some wanting to stay in opposition.

Bizarre.

When on live TV the SD,s cannot make head nor tail of what Labour is on about, and Labour are telling SF to mind their own business this magical perfect place wet dream is now even more of a fantasy than it ever was.

Some possible options for the next government - some are realistic, most…. aren't 😛.

In cases where independents are needed, I've only included the minimum required.

If Sinn Fein want in with both Labour and Soc-Dems,, they still need Fianna Fail to support a minority government, and at least 3 more seats… It's not going to happen.

I'm happy with the outcome of the election, personally it's what I voted for, but I also think the clear 1st preferences and transfer patterns across the country indicated a national preference for FFG.

That said, a few observations of mine indicate a very sizeable appetite for change.

1. The growth of SD, the regrowth of labour, the fortitude of SF to hold seat count against serious challenges

2. The decline in seatshare independent candidates (add to this independents being mostly established TDs re elected than new independents)

3. Apparent decline in appetite for fringe / technical collectives like PBP/Solidarity/Socialist I4C, R2C

I wonder if say SD, SF and Labour could 'coalesce' in opposition, i.e. show a credible, forceful, creative and united opposition, one that people can see is a live, working alternative, a tangible proposition, I wonder should that be the aim?

It might mean sharing 'shadow' roles but this could be done on a strength basis. They would not need a "whip", but they could have a 'programme for opposition' and a "leaders meetings" to agree major stances etc.

SF very much sat back after 2020 and simply expected to be annointed after FFG ended (and may have expected the govt might have failed in term). Up to even earlier this year they were coasting along on good opinion polls, never really opposing anything (except maybe housing), often siding with the government on immigration, Brexit, hate speech reform, referenda, etc. Lying in wait is not going to be good enough for the left this time.

It is amazing that after the economic recession of Ireland in 2008, many people said they never again vote FF. They were almost wiped out in 2011 but they are now moving back to where they once were and that is Ireland largest political party. People have short memories. FG have made some terrible calls as well in their time of government but they didn't destroy the economy like FF did. It amazes me that there are no other options that people constantly have to vote back in FF/FG. The smaller parties are a waste of space in the electorate. They are too small to make any difference and SF are just a pity.

Democracy.

That's only because before 2020 the main opposition party was one of the big two, FF or FG. They have now had to get together to stay out of opposition and form a government. There isn't much now between FF, FG and SF in terms of support with only the cosy transfer deal between FF and FG helping each of them gain a few seats. SF have ended up with more seats that FG for the second election in a row.

I said at the start of this thread that a FF/FG government without a third party of the left would be my preferred outcome.

The above with like minded independents will not be too bad an outcome.

You're scared. And FFG are scared. They will want Labour or SD to come into government with them to be their scapegoat. Them with a few independents is their worst nightmare, especially with the left united on the other side attacking them until the next election.

especially with the left united

I don't think so

That's what you hope but that they're having discussions and advocating a pact is hugely encouraging. I think the short term pain of having FFG in together on their own could be the changing of the landscape forever. The left working with eachother until the next election will actually leave a viable alternative for the first time. The choice will be FFG again or complete change with an alliance who've worked on a program for government together.

For the good of the state, we desperately need FFG to go it alone, for Labour and the SD's to remain in opposition. And for all the left to work together. I'm actually optimistic about the future for the first time. Bankers, landlords and developers are scared shitless of this outcome.

Why would somebody working in a bank be "scared shitless"?

except he's comparing FG's 0.1 percentage point drop with 22.5% instead of 5.5 percentage points so he isn't correct. And SF's drop is not 200 times bigger than FG's, that's also way off!