Election to be called Fri - predict outcome

Joe286

I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party

It will be November 15th

extra-ordinary_

Yeh…another FFG government. No credible alternative.

Clo-Clo

Who said election will be called Friday?

JVince

It won't be called Friday.

Finance bill still needs some time.

Some other bits of legislation too, but considering it near certain FF/FG coalition for the next 5 years, they may decide it better to have them ratified in the new term, thus election call Thursday 24th just before the bank holiday and election Nov 15th as predicted by the Bookie himself last June https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/ivan-yates-predicts-november-15th-general-election-date-1639167.html

Joe286

I really don't want both FF and FG back in power. They are essentially the same party.

SF on their own would be a disaster. Too populist plus still haven't apologised for 30 years of violence.

But I'd like to see them with FF or FG because they would be more reform leaning

gmisk

FF/FG probably with no Greens

Joe286

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122726827#Comment_122726827

It's is important to eat your greens. Think it through..

davepatr07

Just in response to last post.....FF/FG (and hopefully no Greens)

Joe286

It's well to recall the last election and what was expected. I do not think SF will surge again but others might

Itssoeasy

It’s interesting to see that the Tanaiste Michael Martin seem to be finally leaving the door open to a late November/early December election if the finance bill can go through quickly. Also, a trade mission to Poland set for October 28th has been cancelled.

Shan Doras

II think FG=FF will do even better than expected and have about 47= 51 seats each, Micheal Martin will Taoiseach for Christmas. Simon Harris will be Taniste and Minister for Finance for 2.5 years. Pascal Donohue will go to Justice

Itssoeasy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122726879#Comment_122726879

so you think FF and FG will likely have 47-51 seats EACH ? That’s optimism.

Joe286

FF and FG will need a third wheel. They won't have a majority on their own.

While Harris is a better campaigner than Leo he will struggle over the health and housing services

Why anybody thought Leo was a good leader to put in place was beyond me.

ted1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122726824#Comment_122726824

well you see it’s not just what you want , it’s not what you want. It’s what the majority of people want.

ted1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122726879#Comment_122726879

I wouldn’t be so optimistic , lots of sitting TDs not going for reelection

billyhead

It will be a FF/FG government again propped up by independents.

NIMAN

It'll be a FG/FF coalition folks.

No other combo.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122726824#Comment_122726824

If they are both essentially the same party, why would you want one in power but not the other?

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122727071#Comment_122727071

Progress is being made on housing and with the planning bill now approved, the number of homes being built will rise further.

40k to 50k new homes per year from 2025 is on the cards.

DarkJager21

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122727177#Comment_122727177

This 100%, the Greens are going to be annihilated and SF are in freefall.

Augme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122727199#Comment_122727199

Houses prices rose by 10% in the last year. People's wages and disposal incoming certainly ain't raising at that rate. It's going to be a long time, unless a serious crash happens, before houses become affordable for the average person.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122727232#Comment_122727232

House prices outside of Dublin are relativley affordable for a couple on average income of circa 90k.

The more we build, the cheaper they will become and FFG are building more.

Joe286

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122727191#Comment_122727191

Good point. I just want SF in power with FFG

Joe286

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122727161#Comment_122727161

Yes and the avg voter is an idiot. 1977. 2002 to name but two examples

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122727285#Comment_122727285

SF in power with FFG? That would be something to see alright.

Joe286

I suppose though that's unlikely. SF with either FF or FG unless one of the civil war parties implodes.

SouthWesterly

Please tell me there won't be a green TD left with a seat.

If they call it now SF are decimated as well. Lots of would be voters will change their mind

CarProblem

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058374653/election-to-be-called-fri-predict-outcome

if the current government isn't left wing enough for you I'd maybe suggest North Korea as an alternative place to live

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122727309#Comment_122727309

Martin should be safe, Hourigan might be safe; the rest are very very uncertain.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122727308#Comment_122727308

I think SF getting in now is a long shot.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122726834#Comment_122726834

The Greens are a small player in the government with no ability to implement anything without the support of the major players

They have known since day 1 they are been blamed for stuff they never done, they would never get into government again

Have managed to implement most of the stuff they said they would do for their voters

Like most small parties the population turns against them once they are in government and kicks them out. Has happened to all the parties, will the population ever learn? no chance

Another small party will join probably this government, they will spend 5 years been blamed for everything and come next election will be kicked out.

SouthWesterly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122727327#Comment_122727327

You didn't tell me😃.

Hopefully they'll be gone , theyve done nothing positive with this country and only left us all worse off.

ted1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122727309#Comment_122727309

If the Greens did a quarter of what they are credited with, they would be by far the most effective and hard working party in the country.

Lots of things that they are blamed for is coming from EU directives or other parties.

What have the greens done that upsets you?

Dont Be at It

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122727456#Comment_122727456

Couldn't agree more. I don't get the seemingly widespread hatred of the Greens. They've done some great work over the past few years.

Kermit.de.frog

It will almost certainly be a Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil coalition. They will dispense with the Greens (if any are left after the election).

HalloweenJack

FFG + indies/smaller third party.

Another five years of this rotating Taoiseach lark and so on for the foreseeable future until a real alternative emerges that doesn't have a tainted history (SF) and isn't a collection of assorted leftovers or rabid 'silent majority' types.

combat14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122727590#Comment_122727590

the greens are almost univerally despised for their tax anything that moves besides donkeys and carts approach to climate issues they are all stick and no carrrot

many perceive them to be affluent based dubs with absolutely no understanding of rural ireland and the sheer lack of reality that there are damn all public transport alternatives available

this is the stuff greens salivate over:

Tax on Europe’s frequent flyers could raise €64bn a year – study

Levy rising by €100 for each return flight after the first in a year could cut emissions by 21%, report says

JVince

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122727168#Comment_122727168

That is probably a positive for this election.

People want to see new faces but also like the security of what we currently have.

So new faces for fg and ff supported by the current sitting td is a win win

Patser

FF, FG and SDs is my prediction - a lot of people are going to be turned off on this election due to lack of alternatives, but will also be resistant to just letting FF and FG back in yet again. With SF struggling, it's now or never for SDs to step up as alternative - and FF/FG would much rather have another party in coalition with clear price tag/requests than 20 odd Independents.

I can see the Left vote fracturing up a lot - a lot of independents gaining from Green or SF voters - so mathematically after the election, it would probably be possible to have a SF, SD, Lab, Ind, PBP government but that'd be like herding cats.

Outside chance that FF go in with SDs and SF and ditch FG. FG would actually probably like a term in opposition, watching an assortment of others trying to be stable, but FF and FG have been so polite to each other and honoured pretty much all their deals that's its unlikely that alternatives would look as attractive

wazzzledazzle

It is almost certain that it's going to be FF/FG and i'm going to say Soc Dems as the third wheel. I really hope the greens aren't involved. Martin is safe i'd assume. Is Pippa Hackett running? She may have a chance if so. ROG is surely a gonner. Anyway, not gonna waste too much of my breath on them.

Indies will do well and who knows what SF will end up with. It's probably safe to assume MLMD is on her last legs unless something miraculous happens

Fr Tod Umptious

My ideal scenario is FF and FG winning enough seats so that the best option is to go into collation with each other and no one else and not be in a position for either of them to go into collation with anyone else.

We need a strong centre right government than doesn't have to pander to anyone on the left or single issue independents

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122728003#Comment_122728003

I'd love to see a FF-FG only government. It would speed up the process of these two becoming one.
I wondering though if there is a further rise in the polls for FG will they try and put clear blue water between them and FF. There is bound to be members in both parties who have pride in the legacy of their party. With SF no longer a threat it could be interesting.

Joe286

I would not rule out ROG..

The greens did improve public transport

wazzzledazzle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122728057#Comment_122728057

The people of Blanch and surrounding area's are not voting him back him. Not a hope

Joe286

Why would anybody want to see this exact government back in power? Because you love paying 65 euros to see a doctor? Because you love waiting 12 hours in A and E

Because it took them 12 years to reform planning?

There is no easy solution to either the housing or health crisis but obviously the people hoping for the governments re-election are not sick and have private health insurance.

MacDanger

Most likely a return to the same/similar.

A lot of people are delighted with SF's recent trouble and the thought of them losing a rake of seats, I'd be worried though that this may allow some of the right wing head the ball parties to get a foothold and start to make ground. Regardless of who gets in, I really hope that doesn't happen

HBC08

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122727376#Comment_122727376

Being blamed for everything has a bit of merit in relation to the pattsie Roderic but still you can't defend him,Cartin Martin who went into hiding during the RTE scandal or indeed Ryan himself who is a decent sort but utterly clueless of reality.

Independants will be the big story (along with the hilarious collapse of SF) of this election.

I wonder is it possible if FG do really well to form a government with a big number of independents and move away from FF?

Then FF could have a few years in opposition figuring out their identity.SF could then slip back to their natural level of fighting it out with SDs and Labour.

HBC08

No chance the SDs are in government.

The SF vote collapsed because it wasn't representative of the general publics view on immigration (their more recent woes is just the final nail)

The SDs would be even more at odds with the majority view on immigration,they won't be near government in my life time.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122728057#Comment_122728057

In the Fingal area of his constituency in June, the Greens were outpolled by FF, FG, SF, Labour, Soc Dems, PBP and even fecking Aontu. He could come embarrasingly far from a seat.

csirl

SDs and Greens (and Labour) are essentially the same party.

Genghis

I think FF and FG have a fair chance of forming a coalition with no other support, they are more cohesive than in 2020, i.e. they will gain transfers between them, they both did well in local and Euros earlier in the year, not to mention their main alternative (SF)) is in turmoil.

If a third wheel small party is required for security, I would like to see Aontu, though they will need 3-4 more seats minimum. Aontu could pick up some SF disillusionment votes in some area but maybe a breakthrough for them is a long shot.

I think a small number of independents from the FFG gene pool is more likely.