Election to be called Fri - predict outcome

That would be a treble negative. I said could not refuse.

Averil is separated from Fionan nearly as long as from FF…

They usually stick a notice on the ballot box about the ring being inside. Then count staff can set it aside and return to owners. When they open on count day.

It happens almost every election somehow

Funny, considering the benchmark you used for years here was the 2020 GE.

Now the benchmark is the locals…..

When are we going to face the reality that Michael Martin was by far the most credible option as Taoiseach and the electorate knew it? The leaders debate was a turning point and the result reflects that. Martin's staying power has blocked SF's route to govt for more than a decade.

MLMD just doesn't have it. As for Carthy as a possible replacement, get real. He's an even bigger spoofer than O'Broin

And so it played out.

I couldn`t get where the media saw McConalogue in trouble with two FG candidates with fair sized votes below him as well as where transfers were likely to go based on geography.

SF also helped him out by putting Jordan next door to Pringle attempting to take him out and then not using the vote they got in the north of the county to help Jordan out.

Very poor vote management where SF got 42% of FPV as opposed to FF`s 24% and both end up with 2 seats.

Wrong. The next crisis will knock FF/FG out.

Not permanently of course - FF, the Greens and now Labour prove that Irish parties bounce back. But for long enough to give us a different government and perhaps even a fundamental political re-alignment. If the crisis is deep and enduring, it could eventually create an alternative political reality which is unimaginable now, just like we got an FF/FG coalition with rotating Taoiseach - something that was inconceivable before the Crash.

I don't know when the next crisis will hit. Trump might do it or it might be, once again, some obscure corner of the financial markets.

But it will surely happen in our lifetimes (alternatively - my condolences!)

At this stage they have shrunk down to the point that they need to coalesce to stay in power. That was a big deal in 2020. Now it's just accepted. Their voters are transferring heavily to one another now as well. They are for all intents and purposes a single party now. They can stay in power for as long as the economy doesn't crater.

This all reminds me so much of 2007. Back then it was FF on their own who were dominant. Now it is FF-FG together. Back then they were over-reliant on the stamp duty from houses. Now it's the tax receipts from a few massive companies. In both elections parties from all sides were outdoing each other to promise to spend more and more. Independent voices were calling for restraint but they were roundly ignored.

If there is a recession and especially if house prices drop their voters will lash out. The left-wing opposition need to get their act together and be ready to present a viable opposition coalition, in a way that they did not in this election. That begins by Labour not going into government now to prop up FF and FG.

I was going to make this exact point. There will be a recession at some stage in the future, that much is for sure, and with a recession comes a reduction of wealth and money in peoples pocket.

SF need to get their act together over the next 5 years that they are taken as a credible coalition partner. Soc Dems have a great base to build from, and if they can build from this election, there is no reason they can't look for 20+ seats come 2029 (or sooner)

Soc Dems and Labour should keep their respective powders dry, stay out of government now at all costs and be ready next time round

I don't think anybody in the country thought a SF + FF coalition or FFG were the choices on offer to be fair. Certainly in the main transfers would suggest FFG were transferring each other and Labour and SF voters were transferring to PBP and SD. SF more transfer friendly than Aontú and other right wing loons but that shouldn't be the benchmark for any party

SF FF has always been SFs only route to power in this election.

Some of us have been saying that for well over 12 months, perhaps 2 years.

There could be a move back toward SF from FF, once MM and MLMD are out of the picture, but for now its FFG, as per predictions from a long time ago.

FF have been kingmakers in this election since the day after the 2020 election.

SH by far had the worst campaign, Probably the worst in living history. Precipitated a fall from 27% to 20,5% in a couple of weeks. But thanks to FF he'll be back in government and incredibly, likely to be Taoiseach again.

You couldn't write it, to be perfectly honest.

At least he got a viral TikTok out of it.