Election to be called Fri - predict outcome

The 2 FG candidates got just 9% of the FPV. Even if you credited all that 9% to FF it would still only leave them on 33% compared to SFs 42%.

MacLochlainn was on 9,799 after the 1st count. Jordan on 3,321. MacLochlainn even if he didn`t get a single further vote was not going to get caught out for a seat, but Doherty`s tansfers to him were 3,396, whereas Jordan`s got just 1,084.

Along with the large difference in percentage FPV, that only gave them the same number of seats as FF, that is terrible vote management if you are serious about getting a 3rd seat in a 5 seater.

I could grow to like him if it wasn't for the fact he worked for Bertie.

SF just got the lowest vote ever for the main opposition party.

They were the worst opposition in history IMO and the electorate seem to agree.

They are the main opposition for each other for the last 100 years, and people are treating the current setup like it's a success

So incompetent they both bankrupted the country

Louth just finished up. That just leaves Cavan-Monaghan and the Cork North Central recount. The final figures are more are less confirmed now barring something unexpected happening with those:

• FF - 48
• SF - 39
• FG - 38
• LAB - 11
• SD - 11
• II - 4
• PBP-SOL - 3
• AON - 2
• GRN - 1
• 100%RDR - 1
• IND - 16

FF and FG combined is 86. 88 is required for a bare majority. They'll also need a bit of a buffer to get a working majority, especially if they want to go the full 5 years. Bertie Ahern suggested a figure of 94 would be ideal. So…how can they get to a number in that ball park?

Numerically the easiest thing would be for them to coalesce with either SD or LAB. That would get them to 97. The downside for them is that this would require a lot of compromising on policy AND would cost them disproportionately in cabinet seats. It's also possible that neither party would actually want to go into coalition with them (especially so in the case of SD). Fionan Sheehan said last night that his sources in FF told him that the Soc Dems would be at the back of the queue when it came to prospective partners.

SF, PBP-SOL and Aontu have all been ruled out by one side or the other

Independent Ireland have as party of their ethos that they won't apply a whip. That would make them unreliable as coalition partners - especially when unpopular votes occur.

The cost of satisfying the 100% Redress candidates demands would likely be too high with the potential to get even higher in the future.

That leaves the Independents. To use an old phrase, if FF and FG can find some reliable ones that can "be bought and will stay bought" then that would suit them just fine. There are quite a few gene pool FF and FG ones to choose from, many who have already been offering their services. Some possibilities

1. Michael Healy-Rae (FF gene-pool. Father propped up FF)
2. Danny Healy-Rae (FF gene-pool. Father propped up FF)
3. Michael Lowry (former FG. Often votes with government)
4. Kevin Boxer Moran (member of 2016 government with FG)
5. Sean Canney (member of 2016 government with FG)
6. Verona Murphy (former FG)
7. Mattie McGrath (former FF)
8. Gillian Toole (former FG)
9. Barry Heneghan (protege of Finian McGrath who was a member of the 2016 government)

There's actually so many of them that FF/FG can probably afford to play them off against each other and pick & choose say six to deal with. They could possibly do so while keeping all of the ministries for themselves.

There's going to be a lot of noise in the next few weeks but my guess is that this is where things will land.

That's currently what we have the 3 main parties are the same thing

If they are in power, the are not opposition parties.

Ged Nash on Drivetime talking about SF disaster campaign, Labour 8 years ago had 37 seats, now they're doing a jig with 12 and slagging off SF. Laughable!! 🤣

He'd be very much the 80's style traditional labour politician. (Think of the Siptu lads)

Failures? Irish government is just a list of failures, you have to get a chance to fail

Anyone with sense opposed the bailout and the subsequent deals, including fg