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Election to be called Fri - predict outcome

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Comments

  • Administrators Posts: 55,019 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    They didn't need to tell them, it is fairly obvious, particularly when FF publicly dismissed SF as a partner.

    There's no path to government for FF that did not involve either FG or SF. They were clear they didn't have any interest in SF, people voting FF knew exactly what they were voting for.

    The same is true in the reverse.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,798 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    You're leaving out Noel Grealish, with his record propping up the 2007-10 government as the PDs I'd say he'd be one of the first names on the list.

    I'd say him and

    Michael Healy-Rae (FF gene-pool. Father propped up FF), Danny Healy-Rae (FF gene-pool. Father propped up FF), Michael Lowry (former FG. Often votes with government) and Mattie McGrath (former FF) are absolutely nailed on.

    Next on the list I would put

    1. Kevin Boxer Moran (member of 2016 government with FG)
    2. Sean Canney (member of 2016 government with FG)

    Given their record in the IA they might have notions of influencing national policy but with FF backgrounds would be fundamentally pragmatic and would have no interest in bringing down the government under any crcumstances, which is the main thing.

    Get all them signed up and FFG will sail through five years…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,525 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    particularly when FF publicly dismissed SF as a partner.

    …and presented themselves as a different offering to FG.
    Now they are going to enthrone FG and allow a leader with ten less TD's be Taoiseach.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,051 ✭✭✭MFPM


    Of course he's wrong. They're perhaps the butt of some people's jokes but I dare say that reflects on those types more than anything else.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,140 ✭✭✭hamburgham


    i thought Bertie was sounding very old and frail on the radio over the weekend.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    You should do a little bit of research into the history of ireland and see how ireland has improved over the last 100 years

    You are reaping the rewards and unaware but that is down to your own ignorance and nobody elses.

    No it reflects on SF and their incompetence

    You waffled for weeks that FF would join SF.

    Again you prove you havent a clue

    You also said you would never vote for SF again if they would be mudguards for FF or FG. That was another porkie wasn't it as you are out here defending SF after they offered to be mudguards.

    😂

    Credibility



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,462 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    SF would be demanding the role for 2 years as a red line issue if FF would talk to them.

    FFS everyone who voted FF knew that this would happen.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 435 ✭✭Grassy Knoll


    Ha ha, not a card carrier for them but you can expect on the public transport side a significant, continued roll out in the next few years - Bus Connect, rail, Metro. The Foynes rail freight line is currently under construction. The harvesting of turf is gradually on the way out. The climate action bill has in domestic law the legal requirement we get to net zero by 2050. One of the Future Ireland funds is dedicated to climate change on its prompting.

    Throw in from the EU both the Nature Restoration and Energy Performance Building Directive - these will have profound impacts upon our land use and built environment respectively.

    The impact - positive or negative of the Greens recent spell in Government will live on for some time. Whether it has had too much sway given its size is another question



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,141 ✭✭✭monkeybutter


    If anything FF and FG have hampered this progress more than aided it, but you know that already



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,525 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I said it more often than I care to remember that I didn't think SF would go into a coalition with FF if they were 10 seats shy of them.

    No such worries for FG it seems. FF wins the election, they do too. Simple as that really.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Fair point on Grealish. I left him out as I don't think he's supported any governments since the end of the PDs (particularly the 2016 one) but he'd definitely be of the right ideological persuasion.

    The thing going against Boxer & Canney is they might want to be junior ministers or something. That was probably only on offer in 2016 since it was just FG involved and there were plenty to go around. That won't be the situation this time. They won't have as much leverage this time with so many other possible partners available.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,798 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    I wonder are Collins and co regretting their II venture now. I'd say they, especially Collins himself would be strong candidates as 'true indos' to prop up the government but under their current flag I'd be very surprised if FFG were interested…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,462 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    So FF are right to ignore them if thats true.

    You're all over the place. Saying FF should talk to SF. But them claiming SF wouldn't be interested as they have too few seats



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,525 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Only time I said FF should talk to SF was when SF had the largest mandate.

    FF have it now, they can do what they like. But we know they'll do the same as before most likely.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Yes. Listening to Collins at the weekend it sounds like he's open to negotiating but unless they get rid of that whip rule then I can't see it being possible. They would also likely want input into policy rather than just being bought off with local initiatives.

    If they do stay outside of government then I could see themselves, Aontu and Carol Nolan forming a right wing bloc who will be vocal opponents on things like immigration and climate change legislation.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,566 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    So you want Martin to enthrone a party with 9 seats less than FF compared to a party that are 10 seats less and got a higher FPV than the one with 9 less.

    Martin ruled out SF because he and the vast majority of his parliamentary party knew that not doing so would cost them votes.

    I doubt there are many FF`s felling in any way embarrassed over the number of seats they now have.

    Yoy need to spit out those sour grapes Francie. They`ll give you ulcers if you keep chewing them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,525 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    So you want Martin to enthrone a party with 9 seats less than FF 

    Dafuq did I say any such thing?

    Martin will do what Martin does. And we are all free to comment on it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,635 ✭✭✭Musicrules


    One positive thing that seems to be coming from this election is that the above appears to be happening. At last, the left are coming together. FFG nearly have an overall majority, having a scapegoat like the Greens won't work next time as they'll only have a few independents. Their vote has been falling all the time, the next election is an amazing opportunity to end their reign once and for all. An actual viable alternative is available and they can work together. In fact, this is the strongest opposition FFG have ever faced. There are differences in all the other parties but as noted, there can be common ground found. The Greens can even come back into the picture along with the SD, Labour, PBP, SF etc and get young people excited to vote for them and end the century reign of FFG backed by their landlord and developer buddies.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,525 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I think FF FG will make a fair pitch to Labour, Soc Dems to try and use them as they always do but also to try and stop the coming together of a left alliance.

    In many ways it's a watershed election - either the left gets it act together, doesn't prop up this iteration of the 'merger that's not a merger' and starts building for the next election (or the next government arrangement falls apart) or they forget it for the next few generations.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,262 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    FF 48 + FG 38 = 86

    + Noel Grealish, Sean Canney, Michael Lowry, Verona Murphy, Boxer Moran, Marian Harkin = 92



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,258 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Funnily enough last time round a FG friend of mine was fuming it was on a Saturday because it meant young people were more likely to actually vote and that would not favor FF/FG.

    They did not make the mistake of doing it in a weekend again .

    Not voting because you think all options are as bad as each other is fine , I disagree but I understand that POV.

    Those who have spent the last few years criticizing the government and most times correctly not bothering are an absolute disgrace. Yes their may be some who genuinely could not have voted , but most just could not be arsed. They can pipe down for the next few years.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,284 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    Actually ye I would say so come to think about it 🤔



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,366 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Stephen Donnelly will remain as a minister until the new government is formed I believe, despite being rejected by the public.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,366 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Yep. But seemingly this is going to take weeks and weeks to arrange.

    Is it any wonder we accept the slowness of projects in this country.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,344 ✭✭✭MayoSalmon


    Optics of course

    Left will also spend the time pretending they want to form a government aswell



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    To be fair to all parties, the ongoing volatility in the electorate that now appears to have both regional and county dimensions, makes candidate strategy very difficult. While FG have got the most wrong this time out, the caveat is that they were replacing a very large number of retiring TDs, making a two-candidate strategy more attractive. They got this wrong, but they should have learned how they can pick up seats next time out.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,935 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    Havent seen much mention of the absolute cratering of PBPs support once they got beyond first preference votes, they seemed to be very transfer toxic this elections. Just 3 TDs elected vs the 4 they previously had and 2 of them (murphy and coppinger) didn't even make quota. Paul Murphy squeeking in on the 5th seat by default vs 2016 and 2020 where he easily sailed through into the 2nd seat must have had him feeling a bit worried, hes really not used to being the least popular kid on the soap box.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 685 ✭✭✭Dank Janniels


    When I was in college 16 years ago Friday was always a half day to allow people to travel home so I dont understand these complaints of a Friday election day impeding the younger vote turnout. Also, was there not an option on the voting register to update your address? Some of the reaction online like banning over 65s to vote is hilarious!



  • Posts: 133 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I heard the radio earlier mentioning the infamous Vera Wynne from Clare.

    She went from approx 8000 FPV in the last election to 300 in this. That was an exceptional fall from grace.



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  • Posts: 133 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I saw that Labour told them they weren't interested in a coalition according to the Independent



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