Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

So how did they get their reputations? Conspiracy?

with 2/3 young adults living at home as they cant afford rents or to buy a home we now have what seems to be the first warnings of a potential bubble as house prices rise over 10 consecutive months as interest rates start to fall

Experts warn of potential property bubble as prices double in a decade

First-time buyers now need average deposit of €52,500, bank figures show

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/experts-warn-of-potential-property-bubble-as-prices-double-in-a-decade/a721311346.html

or €22,500 claiming HTB which is why most FTBs are going for new houses

Taking the lower figure, that would mean close to 1.5 million houses in the next 25 years. That's not even considering the infrastructure that would be required. Also, what would be the environmental impact of building on that level?

Suggestions like this really do demonstrate just what chasing the infinite growth genie has brought us. Already, there are enormous social issues from such policy, and they will get worse as time goes on.

I'll be forgiven for being a tad histrionic, but genuinely feel sorry for the children of today who will have to grow up in this investment fund with a flag. Maybe it's time policy started considering the long-term best interests of future generations of Irish people and not just the short term needs of a selection of people who are here today. But who cares eh….

Evict people for non payment of social housing rent for starters - the state have kind of given up and don't bother because they'll have to be housed regardless and it's just shuffling deckchairs, what they fail to realise is that actually evicting for non payment is the deterrent necessary to get people to pay.

Extreme anti social behaviour from social tenants should also carry a threat of eviction. You need an effective deterrent for these things - in the past there very much was.

Do you honestly see any politican agreeing to this?

A few years ago, no.

In 1-2 years time though the mood will have shifted further, we are currently in the middle of a lurch to to the right on some issues. If the issue of non payment came up in the news today, you would be surprised of the support for evictions for those who refuse to pay.

I agree, but a hardening of attitudes has been and still is happening in this country. People have less and less sympathy for those seen as not paying their way these days, so eventually those kind of examples will not really provoke much outrage other than from a select few.

Leaving the problem tenants homeless is unfortunately not politically (or morally, when they have children) viable, but a fairly workable real world solution would be to evict the problem tenants from more desireable social housing locations (say any in RPZs) and only offer them alternative accomodation elsewhere.

An offshore compound is rather a stretch, but even just to places outside of the major cities would be a very helpful incentive while not being heartless.

But that would require the availability of empty social housing to move them to - which comes back to the original problem of not enough new social housing being built.

A link to HAP cost over a billion please

On the significant increase I provided a link that showed between 1970 and 1995 that state education funding increased by 2500% and between 1995 to2023 it increased by another 400%. The increase of 2500% was as the state started to take over from religious orders.

The gugures I gave for the education structure 50 years ago us very accurate and is part of the reason education costs have increased to the state.

And this person who bought for 400k in October last year. Just relisted with a 799k asking price.

Completely refurb’d it in fairness and it looks well but 400k upgrade?

https://www.businesspost.ie/news/top-developers-fear-sinn-feins-radical-plan-will-stall-housing/

Fear mongering in the BP today about SF and housing policy but the fear mongering is being done from one of the unaccountable corporates making hay from the housing crisis so I think that indicates, at face value, there is something of substance in the SF policies.

What is quite comical in the argument put forward by the corporate representative the article is that the current housing output situation would be jeopardised with SF’s plans. Turkeys not in favour of Christmas shock horror!

The government carefully choose their words when talking about prices and we all know they love to use the word “affordable”, which is vague but does not necessarily mean lower prices. Affordable mortgages could be based on a comparison to renting the same property; it could mean affordable relative to incomes etc.

The government have played a very dangerous game to throw our huge tax income of the recent years into propping up house prices in a sort of “hail Mary” effort to retain as many of their existing voter base as possible. In the papers today we see the crooked Big Tech companies playing the poor man and looking for more subsidies from the Irish government - even more good cash being thrown at places that don’t need it.

It seems to all be leading to the forthcoming election as there is no way all of this free money for the booming sectors of the economy is sustainable - we are after all supposed to be fighting (and struggling to fight) inflation. We are in the end game of the current model of throwing seemingly unlimited money at the property market - can the magic money printers and corporate tax revenue be used to push up house prices in isolation to an inflation fight when housing is the single largest expense for households? Absolutely not.

good article government plan is to increase wages (and keep house prices high)... the reality is wages are already very high compared to international salaries .. the real problem is house prices, rents, taxes, land prices, uncontrolled immigration and government inaction on funds buying up properties, green zoning and lack of supply

government tax of 33-41+% on savings and investments also is not helping as it funnels money into property investment instead