Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

Dubinusa · 18-04-2024 09:40PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122036438#Comment_122036438

Yep. It's a good haul, if true. Boyle would instantly be in the 23. Brownlee will probably have to move position.

fitz · 18-04-2024 10:23PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122036023#Comment_122036023

Imbalance in central contracts isn't the problem, it's a symptom. The real problem is player development is not where it should be in the other three provinces. Some of that is on the IRFU, some of it is demographic, but a lot of it is to do with local leadership and how they've invested. Throwing more money at the problem isn't necessarily going to help if the people spending it aren't spending in the right areas.

And is it worse than it's ever been? When the Ireland team was dominated by Munster, was the imbalance much better than it is now? I genuinely don't know, but my sense is that the distribution was probably similarly skewed then, no?

The takeaway for me is - saying it's unfair that Leinster get more headroom in their budget because of central contracts is too dismissive of the fact that they've succeeded in developing players that attract those contracts. If there's something to be done, it's to focus investment on the barriers to the other provinces doing the same. That's investment the IRFU should be making, but it shouldn't come out of Leinster's earned budget, imo.

awec · 18-04-2024 10:41PM

Anyone with an interest in this topic should listen to the latest episode of The Counter Ruck (the Irish Times rugby podcast).

D'Arcy is the guest on it, he was on a central deal himself, he knows exactly how it all works. His points are very interesting.

https://www.irishtimes.com/podcasts/the-counter-ruck/the-counter-ruck-is-irelands-central-contract-system-broken/

You would nearly think that D'Arcy reads boards. 😉

aloooof · 18-04-2024 10:45PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122036712#Comment_122036712

When the Ireland team was dominated by Munster, was the imbalance much better than it is now? I genuinely don't know, but my sense is that the distribution was probably similarly skewed then, no?

I've been searching for sources for this exact data, and it's incredibly difficult to come by (as compared to nowadays). But it seems to be agreed that there were 25-30 central contracts in the 00's.

If you look at the 2003 and 2007 Rugby World Cup squads - imperfect, but likely a reasonable analog; squads of 30, and we had 2-3 overseas players - yes Munster had the highest number of players but the distribution is nothing like it is now.

And I think that makes sense; while Munster dominated the starting pack and half-backs, they never dominated the full 22 in the way Leinster dominate the 23 now. Leinster had 16 players in the 23 for the first game of the 6 Nations. I'm not sure Munster were ever that dominant.

Using the RWC squads, and distributions in the 22's at the time, it seems to suggest Munster, at some point likely had an imbalance similar to this season's (or maybe slightly less).

But it doesn't look like it was ever close to it being 3x the number of the other provinces combined.

So it's not something that's cyclical. The distribution from next season seems to be a huge outlier.

phog · 18-04-2024 10:55PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122036747#Comment_122036747

But it seems to be agreed that there were 25-30 central contracts in the 00's.

That's one of the issues, the IRFU have reduced the number of contracts available, that in itself needs to be reviewed.

aloooof · 18-04-2024 10:59PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122036712#Comment_122036712

To add, fwiw, here's what I found. Sources are an Independent.ie article, threads on here from the time and 2003,2007 are the RWC squads, as mentoned.

So I suspect imperfect but indicative:

50HX · 19-04-2024 05:55AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122036577#Comment_122036577

I see what you are saying but there is about as much logic in saying that beirne & jager went from leinster to munster as there is in sean cronin from munster to leinster

jacothelad · 19-04-2024 07:19AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122029875#Comment_122029875

Ulster finished 2nd to Leinster in the normal table in 19 / 20, 2nd in 20 / 21, 2nd in 21 / 22 and 2nd in 22 / 23. Other teams would like that level of failure. I assume there is prize money for doing so. They are playing like crap this year without doubt.

It's probably not any individual player's fault that they don't have or have not developed the individual talent of their counterpart in Leinster. That is down to genetics, coaching, access to playing and having an interest from an early exposure to the game. There definitely was a seismic collapse when Payne and Peel left. There was a change in the relationship between the head coach and the players which was negative. He changed the playing style in a rather wasteful way and it's hard to get back to the status quo once that occurs.

There are systemic failures in rugby in Ulster without quibble. (The failure on here appears to be that they aren't as good as Leinster.) Without doubt, they are at a low point in the cycle. It is more due to societal divisions in N.I.. Half the population have no interest at all in rugby for well known historical reasons. That half don't play it at school. If you don't do that you won't develop an interest particularly when there are pressures not to do so, however subtle. It's still a 'them' and 'us' story sadly.

In the 'other' half of the population, a huge % don't give a flying Boris for rugby never did, never will and hardly knows it exists. Demographic changes as a consequence of recent history has led to many of those State schools that once played the game becoming too small in pupil numbers to field teams or in fact to simply being shut down. The Ulster branch can't suddenly magic up thousands of kids to play the game. Many of the clubs that were central to the great Ulster sides of the 80's and 90's and which also provided large numbers of Ireland starters have all but disappeared. Sides like North of Ireland, Collegians, Bangor, Ards, CIYMS and others have either gone are are much diminished.

Just like in Dublin now, a large proportion of players for Ulster would have attended private boarding schools. For the pursuance of a perverted ideology, one political party, when they ran the education portfolio, basically in effect if not in law, banned private education. It only exists in tiny pockets. Many Grammar Schools that were the bastion of rugby are gone. They couldn't survive financially. If you are an NI parent who wishes private education for your child within the UK you have little choice but to send the kids to England or Scotland. I now live in a fairly remote part of Scotland near Gordonstoun School. My friend here sends his children there. They are just back from the Hong Kong Sevens with the school. There are quite a surprising number of N.I. children there. It's not even the most expensive at £10,000 per term. Fettes College in Edinburgh is £36,945 per year. Again, quite a surprising number of N.I. children attend. It is easy to ignore the persistent exodus of a part of the population over the last 25 years or so. If you were a parent of an 18-year-old school-leaver in N.I. and the son or daughter goes to University in G.B. you know they aren't coming back.

I have also believed for a long time that the committee system in Ulster is helping the failure to thrive as we might expect. Additionally, the Academy has failed year-on-year to further the talents of seemingly promising players.

The £900,000 hit over the La Rochelle debacle was almost the straw that broke Ulster's back.

jacothelad · 19-04-2024 07:29AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122030207#Comment_122030207

I would get the IRFU to appoint the coaches to the academies. I have met and observed and actually personally knew quite a few of those at Ulster over the years. Some were not what was needed…….being polite. Jobs for the boys springs to mind. A new broom……etc

aloooof · 19-04-2024 08:09AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122037127#Comment_122037127

Brilliant post, jaco, very interesting to get the Ulster perspective to this level.

19-04-2024 08:22AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122036772#Comment_122036772

It's good data to have, thanks for pulling together - and in a weird way it's almost reflective of the relative gap between the teams at various points.

But as others have said - there is very little to be gained by consistently pointing out the disparity. Nobody queries this.

But it's purely down to player production. The bar is unquestionably higher now to get to a CC - guys like Gavin Coombes or James Hume might have picked up 10-20 caps in the 2000's, but Ireland are so much better relatively now, and so are the players they're competing with to get CCs.

I can't understand the griping though around a system though that simply allows Leinster to retain the players they produce. The only remedy for this is for the other provinces to produce players worthy of winning a place in the Irish team and then in time earning a CC (just like Jack Crowley).

To me - there seems to be two different things though sought by fans on this forum - some want the IRFU to fund/permit significant relaxation of the NIQ rules to allow Munster & Ulster sign a greater number of NIQs in an effort to close the gap to Leinster in the first team right now. This would be the short term and incredibly short-sighted solution that would actually exacerbate the current situation.

The only solution that remedies the current situation is continued investment in facilities, coaching and talent identification in underage pathways, but the unfortunate thing is it's not a short term fix. It might take years to catch up.

phog · 19-04-2024 08:22AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122037127#Comment_122037127

Brilliant post

Again, quite a surprising number of N.I. children attend. It is easy to ignore the persistent exodus of a part of the population over the last 25 years or so. If you were a parent of an 18-year-old school-leaver in N.I. and the son or daughter goes to University in G.B. you know they aren't coming back.

This is replicated across most counties in Ireland, some move to Dublin, the rest move abroad.

I look at the school classes that my kids went to, there's few enough of them living locally.

aloooof · 19-04-2024 08:38AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122037331#Comment_122037331

But as others have said - there is very little to be gained by consistently pointing out the disparity. Nobody queries this.

To be fair, I was replying to a post where someone had questioned the disparity; or, at least, compared it to Munster in the 00's. They're not comparable, the distribution from next season is the, singular, significant outlier since CC's were introduced.

I can't understand the griping though around a system though that simply allows Leinster to retain the players they produce.

I don't think anyone is saying Leinster shouldn't be allowed retain the players they produce. Certainly the centrally contract players, obviously. But this is too simplistic.

The "griping" is because the mechanism that allows them to retain these players now gives them a much, much more significant advantage over the other provinces than it previously had. Surely you can understand why?

(As an aside, I can completely understand why some Leinster fans are happy with the current status. I don't agree, but I understand it).

Like I said, it's new territory. It's perfectly reasonable to question if it was ever intended to work this way. And if it wasn't 1) could it have further ramifications and 2) if so, should it be something the IRFU look at?

I've asked this above, but straight question. Do you think the imbalance in the Central Contracts is a potential issue for the IRFU that could have further ramifications?

Whiff of Cordite put this as follows:

I think the law of unintended consequences have played out and the system has landed in a place it was never supposed or expected to where it now risks perpetuating the superiority of the strongest team.

I think that's a completely fair comment and is pretty much exactly what I've been saying.

19-04-2024 08:43AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122037333#Comment_122037333

Well, let's let the actual science speak to this point rather than your local survey of your kid's classes:

From the 2016 census to the 2022 census the Irish population grew by just over 361k people, c. 8%. Every county in the country experienced population growth (first time this happened in the history of the State).

While inward migration was certainly a factor (c. 53% of the population growth), we also have significant natural population growth (360k births over the period versus 189k deaths), and have a fertility rate that is the fourth highest in Europe.

While growth in Dublin City is strong at c. 6.1% over the period, growth in Limerick is very comparable at 5.4% over the same period (Cork County is 8.1% and Cork City 5.4%).

There are quite different dynamics at play in Northern Ireland, where while the population was also growing at the 2021 census, it is quite clear there are demographic shifts happening there.

ionadnapóca · 19-04-2024 08:59AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122037127#Comment_122037127

Very informative post.

Ulster finished 2nd to Leinster in the normal table in 19 / 20, 2nd in 20 / 21, 2nd in 21 / 22 and 2nd in 22 / 23. Other teams would like that level of failure. I assume there is prize money for doing so. They are playing like crap this year without doubt.

Agreed and I've said before McFarland (and the coaches) did well to right the ship considering that Ulster were, as they are now again, a basket case. But when you look at the caliber of player they had, and have had, they should NOT be in in this state. Again! They have underperformed.

I have also believed for a long time that the committee system in Ulster is helping the failure to thrive as we might expect. Additionally, the Academy has failed year-on-year to further the talents of seemingly promising players.

Would be very interested to hear more about this.

The £900,000 hit over the La Rochelle debacle was almost the straw that broke Ulster's back.

Definitely. And add in the subsequent embarrassing performances from the players the IRFU have had to go into Ulster and remove the CEO (I think that's also the 2nd time) and The Head Coach because of the complete balls they were making of it. They have had to pay them off. With IRFU money.

IRFU have had to parachute in their U-20 coach and the national team scrummaging coach to take over.

Massive decisions ahead for Kevin Potts and David Humphreys. I hope Humphreys is going to be involved in recruiting.

19-04-2024 09:00AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122037402#Comment_122037402

No, I don't think it ever was intended to end up like this.

And, fwiw, while every fan of every team wants to see their players earn international caps etc., we're all fans of the Irish team first and foremost, and every single Irish fan would welcome a scenario where the Irish team is not so reliant on Leinster.

The issue I see with this though is that if the IRFU look at this and decide to take action - current fans of Munster and Ulster mightn't like the solution.

I know they're trying to strike a balance between keeping the provinces competitive enough now to keep fans coming in the door while simultaneously encouraging the development of young players, but the answer can't always be more NIQs who take up more game time, or simply raid the Leinster squad depth whenever there is a shortfall.

Some of this will wash out over time I do believe, because I think Munster's production of players (and willingness to back and trust young players) has improved significantly in recent years, but ultimately the seeds of the current CC situation were sown a long time ago, and will take a couple of years to re-balance.

jacothelad · 19-04-2024 09:16AM

With regard to the Central Contracts issue, in most walks of life, those that are the most talented or most successful usually get the most reward. Rewards in sport are usually the consequence of talent plus hard work. Being a professional rugby player demands hard, hard work so the rewards should be commensurate with the combination of talent and effort. Talent on its own is not enough of course. Dedication and coaching are also vital. The most talented (apparently) players are at Leinster. We will never know if a player from one of the other sides would be up there if they were in the Leinster system rather than say, Ulster's. Would James Hume or Robert Baloucoune be on the list if they were in Dublin rather than Belfast? I suspect they might. Would Stockdale have had his flaws eradicated rather than expanded by being with Lancaster……? I think he might. I also suspect that a few of Ulster's squad wouldn't have made it out of Leinster's Academy and that more than a few who disappeared without trace in Ulster's would have graduated to senior status via Leinster's. These are the things that I observe.

I have been playing and then watching rugby since the 1950s Essentially it hasn't changed as much as many think. It is still a game for warriors. If you don't have that warrior spirit then it will be hard to make a mark. However, having that alone is not enough. Little Lowry at Ulster has it in spades but he hasn't got the rest of the equation to be effective despite his abilities.

In seasons past, quite often the difference between Leinster and Ulster was the desire of Leinster players to simply win no matter what…and BOD of course.

The Central Deals aren't given out like smarties for being a good boy. I'm not sure why there is such a reaction to them. If we didn't have them, these guys would still be the best paid. The IRFU owns the teams. They do not "subsidise" them. Someone above declared that the IRFU subsidised Ulster. No they do not. They pay for the running of each Provincial side, own each outright and in the end carry the can when things go wrong as well as getting the kudos when things go right. Ulster didn't 'subsidise' the IRFU by donating a brand new 20,000 seat stadium to the property portfolio. If anything, I hope the IRFU take a greater hand in the running at Ulster. There was a time when Ulster had it right. Too many management appointments have been just wrong. When the heads are full of ballix the body isn't much use.

twinytwo · 19-04-2024 09:21AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122037331#Comment_122037331

I think it all comes down to money, no?(and to a certain extent population). This is reason why, i do not think any of the other 3 provinces will ever close the gap on Leinster.

A lot of the private rugby schools are in Leinster - i think a huge % of the current pros playing in Ireland have come from Blackrock and possibly St Marys? (might have the wrong school). I have no figures to prove it, but i would suspect that the money in schools rugby in Leinster is probably more than the other provinces combined.

The schools feed the academies, which feed the provinces.

Is this the fault of Leinster, no. But its harsh to expect the other provinces to be able to match this and while I wouldn't argue against anyone currently on a CC - something has to change.

aloooof · 19-04-2024 09:25AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122037503#Comment_122037503

And, fwiw, while every fan of every team wants to see their players earn international caps etc., we're all fans of the Irish team first and foremost, and every single Irish fan would welcome a scenario where the Irish team is not so reliant on Leinster.

I don't think you can speak for everyone here. And this touches on one of the ramifications I was talking about.

If the trajectory of Leinster's dominance continues, and the system unintendedly perpetuates that dominance, will fans of the other provinces start to become more disenfranchised? Some would argue that's happened already.

We had 16 Leinster players in the Ireland 23 during the 6 Nations. Now look at the age profile of the 3 Centrally Contracted players not at Leinster; Aki 34, Beirne 32 and Henderson 32. We also have POM, 34 coming off a CC.

It's not inconceivable we could see a 23 with say ~20 Leinster players in the 23. At what point do fans stop seeing themselves as "fans of the Irish team first and foremost" and starting seeing it as "Leinster in green"? I daresay some feel that way already.

And if increasing numbers of fans start to feel that way, that in turn could have further unintended consequences for the health of rugby within those provinces.

Not to go all "inception" here, but I honestly don't understand how you don't understand the "griping".

Former Former Former · 19-04-2024 09:28AM

Central contracts were only intended to do one thing - keep the best players in Ireland.

This is going back to the late 90/early 00s when there were real issues about keeping players here. With the subsequent success of the provinces and the thriving of the pro game, this is now less of an issue, and CCs are now essentially an accounting exercise.

On that basis - there is simply no system you can put in place where you pay international players what they are worth without Leinster getting the lion's share of that money. You could give out another ten CCs, and probably five or six would go to Leinster players. You could revert to everyone being on a provincial contract, but again, unless you're paying some guys less than they're worth and others more than they're worth, Leinster come out on top.

What people are asking for - even if no has actually used these words - is a quota of CCs per province, regardless of whether players at those provinces are actually good enough to merit one.

We can certainly do that, but it absolutely does not fix the underlying issues.

Red Silurian · 19-04-2024 09:33AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122037503#Comment_122037503

The issue I see with this though is that if the IRFU look at this and decide to take action - current fans of Munster and Ulster mightn't like the solution.

Depends on what the solution would be I think. They could take the 12 Central contracts and have 3 for each province, meaning Leinster would effectively lose 6 players to the other provinces. As a Munster fan I'd see this as a bad idea. Primarily because you need players to want to play for a particular team and not be forcing them into anything if we want to get the best out of them. Also why would anybody join the academies of the other 3 provinces if some Leinster player is only going to get priority

In the short term I think it should be a condition that Centrally Contracted players play every inter-provincial game in the regular URC season. In the short term this means Leinster will absolutely crush the other 3, and I accept that. In the long term it means provincial players will be regularly playing the best of the Irish teams and will probably learn more than they would playing second string sides

Former Former Former · 19-04-2024 09:38AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122037503#Comment_122037503

while every fan of every team wants to see their players earn international caps etc., we're all fans of the Irish team first and foremost

Based on the day-in day-out criticism of Ireland and the Ireland coaches on this forum, this is demonstrably false - and all this at a time when we have never been more successful.

Large numbers of posters here are either ambivalent towards Ireland or actively want them to fail. Only a few have actually said this, but it is absolutely the case for a significantly larger number.

ionadnapóca · 19-04-2024 09:43AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122036739#Comment_122036739

D'Orce cant stand Nucifora.

and still cant finish sentences properly "But…..I….think…………..it….is…..a…………….systematic…problem….in………Irish rugby."

I persevered and listened to the end.

Yes he still cant stand Nucifora (prob after been laughed out of a press conference by Nucifora in 2000)

And he didn't even offer a suggestion of what should change with the Central Contracts.

"Should 32 year old JGP get a central contract?"

"Yes 100%"

I agree. Doesn't everyone?

His mangled and regurgitated cake analogy. Good God!

"Is the lack of investment in the club game a provincial responsibility or an IRFU responsibility?"

"Ah listen….I dont……I dont know."

Empty head

His points are very interesting.

Maybe I missed something? Genuine Qs. The blood coming from my ears prob blocked it out.

Finochet · 19-04-2024 09:49AM

Constructive, considered and well thought out post. Much food for thought.

Hard not to think that a downward spiral is very difficult to reverse

19-04-2024 09:53AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122037597#Comment_122037597

I had pulled stats on this previously that I think showed just over 20% of all pro players in the country (incl academies) had come through two schools - Blackrock & St Michael's. I wouldn't imagine this has changed massively as last year's Leinster Academy intake of 8 players was split 4 Blackrock, 3 St Michael's and 1 Newbridge.

That can't be just population though. While Blackrock is a big school (it's where I went to school), at c. 1,100 students, it's not so big as to justify it's disproportional production of rugby players. There is boarding, but it's not a massive component (around 120 boarders or so I think), and while they do get some people from further afield who go there for rugby purposes (Joey Carbery and Jeremy Loughman both from Athy as prime examples of guys who went for senior cycle), these guys are very much the exception.

In reality - the bulk of players produced are from a relatively short locale near the school. It's obviously an area of a good sized population, and it definitely tends towards a wealthier socio-economic background, and there is obviously a very strong and deep rooted rugby culture, but it's still illogical just how many great international quality rugby players come from there.

There isn't something in the water there - it's just a combination of a strong and competitive rugby culture, access to players, very good facilities and very good coaching. That model has to be replicable to some extent elsewhere.

19-04-2024 10:16AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122037620#Comment_122037620

Yeah, everything you'd outlined is absolutely a possibility - but the target of the griping is entirely misdirected.

This discussion is all about Leinster like Leinster is the problem, when the problem is in Munster & Ulster. That's the point that needs to be acknowledged here.

This discussion has been sparked this week across multiple fora and other platforms because of the announcement of other CCs for Leinster and the signing of an NIQ (which is utterly irrelevant to this topic), when the roots of the issue have been apparent for some time.

Ultimately the IRFU are responsible for the game across the whole country, but in practical terms this is cascaded down to local branches to manage at this level, and those are the people who haven't pulled their weight here.

Fans might start to get annoyed with it - but to me that's a stupid and irrational response. The best players, by and large, are picked for the national team. We keep going around in circles here, but ultimately the only solution here is for Munster and Ulster to significantly improve their player production.

19-04-2024 10:22AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122037654#Comment_122037654

I can't see how you think your second point there fundamentally improves anything. The selection of CC players (or players subject to the Player Management protocols, likely the same thing) already comes with a lot of conditions attached. This would be an unnecessary and likely impractical additional one to that.

Leinster already have a very strong track record against the provinces in interpros for the past decade or so, and attendances at these games aren't an issue - so don't see how this improves things.

Forcing Leinster centrally contracted players to move to other provinces would be a retrograde step. It doesn't improve Ireland - just spreads our playing base out more. The players don't want it and wouldn't like it, it would dilute provincial rivalries and it would actually just impede the ability of all provinces to succeed. We'd then have four decent provinces, none of which would likely be capable of winning in Europe (and bringing in the associated revenue those home knock outs etc bring to the IRFU pot).

I've said it about 50 times now - but the only solution is the other provinces improving their player production, but that's not a short term fix.

19-04-2024 10:27AM

I can understand the argument that with the number of CCs and international players, Leinster should not be signing 2 or 3 NIQs. But beyond that I'm not sure what other changes people want

aloooof · 19-04-2024 10:27AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122037849#Comment_122037849

I've repeatedly said the system, tho unintended, is the problem.

I've repeatedly acknowledged the problems in Munster & Ulster.

If Leinster can only afford the NIQ signing because of the new imbalance of central contracts, that absolutely is relevant.

Fwiw, I typed all of the above before I got to this:

Fans might start to get annoyed with it - but to me that's a stupid and irrational response.

Why would anyone bother engaging further…

19-04-2024 10:33AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122037895#Comment_122037895

I'm not calling your engagement with this a stupid and irrational response - I'm referring to "fans" who are claiming they don't support the Irish team because it doesn't have enough players from their province in it stupid and irrational, and I stand by that.

It's not the case that Leinster can only afford the NIQ signing because of the imbalance of CCs - Leinster generate a lot of revenue and have previously had external investment.

They've had expensive NIQs previously, including at times when they had far fewer CCs, so it absolutely isn't the case to say that they can only afford Jordie Barrett now because the CCs.

Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

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