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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Perhaps therein lies the potential peace plan: Ukraine itself can join NATO, EU maintain a full army all it wants etc. but the 20% lost reverts to Ukraine - but run as some broad DMZ or limited federalised region. As said some of those hamlets are probably beyond reconstruction and given Russia wants (but won't get) a fully demilitarised country this could be the next best thing.

    With a nominal NATO force posted inside Ukraine to make sure Russia don't try yet another YOINK.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,112 ✭✭✭keeponhurling


    Probably as good a solution as any.

    But I can't see any peace solution being agreed, I don't think either Putin or Zelensky would accept it.

    And destroying part of Ukraine can still be seen as a "victory" for Putin.

    The war will continue as long as Putin is in power.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,082 ✭✭✭Paddigol


    I think at this point, social and political stability in Ukraine is key. Zelenskyy has been an incredible war time leader… without someone of his calibre at the helm I think Ukraine would have crumbled early doors and a Belarus-style leadership installed. That would have been that. Protests and dissent would have been painted as terrorism and terrorist actions and crushed quickly. There's still a risk of all Ukraine's achievements (if you can call fighting one of the biggest military powers on the planet to a standstill an achievement given the terrible civilian losses suffered by Ukraine) of the past couple of years being lost if Russia manages to meddle in its internal politics and governance.

    Keeping casualties - military and civilian - to an absolute minimum should now be Zelenskyy's goal. No more hopeful counterattacks. Until the West gets off the fence and properly backs Ukraine militarily, it would be a pyrrhic limited-victory at best.

    Instead, solidify defensive lines and make Russia suffer massive losses for every metre they try to take. Keep hitting valuable Russian infrastructure in Russia to bring the war home to them. Keep emasculating Russia's military capabilities through targeted hits - airforce, navy, air defence systems, weapons dumps, tanks… anything expensive which Russia can't afford to replenish.

    And keep picking high profile targets for maximum publicity.

    That way the pressure builds on Putin to reach a 'resolution'. Even if he says, "ok, we've achieved our aims, we've secured a 20% land buffer", that doesn't end the war. The losses will keep mounting on the Russian side through targeted strikes as long as their forces remain on Ukrainian soil. The question then is how long can Russia sustain its economy, how long will the population put up with limbo, and how long will those beneath Putin allow him to remain in place.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,593 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    Why should Ukraine shoulder the loss of its territory to a DMZ arrangement? Given that the troublemaker in this conflict was Russia, shouldn't it be the Belgorod-Bryansk-Kursk-Voronezh region that's demilitarised?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    They shouldn't, not at all, but assuming a General Russian retreat isn't likely I was wondering what could amount to the same, while preserving Ukrainian autonomy and sovereignty in the regions taken? Some flim flam to let Moscow claim they've neutered the threat while Ukraine gets on.

    The Russian invasion ensured Ukraine is now armed to the teeth with western equipment, trained by western nations in modern warfare and has the ear of same. Putin rolled the dice on a quick regime change and has only ensured further Westernisation of Kyiv (barring a new quisling installed post zelensky); if Russia ignored the latest terms, this time they'd face an experienced and battle hardened Ukrainian Army ready to push back.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,593 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    Assuming the Russians don't agree to a retreat (with or without a symbolic "win" to brag about), Ukraine's strongest weapon will be the pretext of an unresolved conflict to justify using their (homegrown) drones and other armaments to target key "war effort" infrastructure - i.e. refineries, drone factories, storage depots, military training camps, bridges, railways, etc - inside Russia.

    If the West is going to dither about and impose restrictions on what Ukaine can and can't do with what they're given, while failing to effectively enforce sanctions already imposed on Russia, then Ukraine is well within its rights to not agree to any half-hearted ceasefire. Let Russia continue to pay dearly for their war, up to and including the loss of their more peripheral oblasts and republics who decide that they've had enough of Putin's folly.

    Ukraine would be mad to agree to any T&Cs that left Putin free to park all his remaining forces on the Belgorod border, knowing that he could send fighter jets risk-free across the whole of the Donbass-Luhansk region any time he wanted because Ukraine had no Patriot missles there.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,159 ✭✭✭purplepanda


    The Ukrainians knew this war was coming since 2014, and they prepared for it as best they could, despite a weak economy. Whilst the west has supplied some weapons, most of the Ukrainian Arsenal up until now has still been old Soviet equipment. Some modernised & updated with more supplied from former Soviet nations formerly under the jackboot of the Warsaw Pact.

    The West suppled some modern weapons up until the USA Trump inspired recent withdrawal of support, but even now Ukraine is still fighting with mostly ex Soviet equipment. With some added updated drone & other technological advanced gear they manufactured themselves. Most of the financial support given to Ukraine, particularly from Europe has been to ensure the government & civil society in Ukraine doesn't end up collapsing.

    It's time to open the Arsenals of all democratic nations & give & manufacture for Ukraine the military equipment need to defeat Putin & his scummy invaders. Failure to do so will be a stain forever on every western nations history if this doesn't happen now.

    There might well have been an logistical excuse for the world to decide not to properly aid Czechoslovakia & Poland, against the tyranny of Nazi invasion.

    Such an excuse is no longer valid, Ukraine is bordered by western & NATO nations, with support further afield in many other democratic countries. Why are the worlds richest democratic nations still waiting?

    Ukraine is being destroyed & many just make excuses for procrastination or even worse swallow evil Russian propaganda.

    Post edited by purplepanda on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,694 ✭✭✭swiwi_


    Would you support the Irish government introducing a Ukraine tax? Money where the mouth is.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,159 ✭✭✭purplepanda


    So lets add the cost of many more millions of refugees from a Ukraine completely conquered, fleeing to the rest of Europe, added to even more refugees & economic migrants continually being filtered through by Russia via eastern European borders.

    If you consider the overall cost of the above scenario, then taxes to aid Ukraine would be obviously cheaper in the long term, for both Europe & Ireland.

    We don't have the politicians with the vision to do what's needed so it won't happen. Even the prospect of another 10 million possibly many more Ukrainians leaving their homeland in exile & arriving in European nations won't change western policy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 6,751 ✭✭✭flutered


    this week, both sullivan and blinken demanded that ukraine stop hitting targets insine russia, cant find the link right now, heck do they want ukraine to fight with its shoe laces tied togeather



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 6,751 ✭✭✭flutered




  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,653 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    In WW2, they came in two sizes. Goliath and Borgward. (Goliath is the small one)

    image.png image.png

    Not particularly successful, folks tended to shoot at them on the way in.
    And, of course, there was that unmanned T-55 that was driven at Ukrainian lines a year ago.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,474 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,474 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    If we can find 5 billion for asylum seekers surely any country can find this money.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,699 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,574 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,887 ✭✭✭Apiarist


    Personally, I would. I already send money to various Ukrainian causes anyway.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,082 ✭✭✭Paddigol


    That's what we need more of. Fingers crossed it's true. Goes to show the appalling state of Russian military defence organisation… how can a power that likes to flaunt itself as being a global leader, be hit time after time behind its own lines, in the same manner using the same tactics, by an adversary that IT has taken the war to? Its hard to imagine the US showing that much incompetence. Goes to show just how vulnerable Ukraine has made Russia… really hope they can keep it up.

    Repairs to the facilities being hit, lost revenue as a result of refineries being taken out of action even temporarily, replacement costs of high tech military equipment (aircraft, AA, navy) must be absolutely massive when aggregated. And those are losses that would definitely not have been factored into this war by Putin - whatever about the cost of sanctions to the Russian economy, he clearly did not envisage the ability of Ukraine's own military inflicting such damage outside of the battlefield.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,236 ✭✭✭EltonJohn69


    A great haul. Ukraine needed some good news. Got to keep hitting russia. Refineries, airfields, drone factories…..all great targets.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,310 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    The 6 Russian bombers destroyed this morning in Rostov Region is just the beginning.

    Ukrainian Armed Forces now has the capability of drone strikes to 3000km.

    Russian oil infrastructure, airfields, Putin's palaces all on the menu.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,310 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    Interesting read:

    Since the onset of Russia’s military aggression in 2014 and its full-scale war in 2022, Ukrainian citizens have consolidated their efforts and demonstrated remarkable unity in defense of their country. 

    Thousands volunteered for the Armed Forces, and Ukrainian women have not been an exception. They took up arms to fight for their country’s independence and personal freedom. Over the years, their numbers in the ranks of AFU only increased, the range of their positions became more diverse, and even uniform and protective ammunition for women has seen a rapid transformation.

    https://war.ukraine.ua/articles/how-many-women-are-defending-ukraine-against-russia-s-invasion/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    The science nerd in me appreciates that graphic remembering about the Mercator Projection & they didn't just draw a perfect circle around the centre in Ukraine.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,310 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    BTW - with this capability of Striking with drones up to 3000km and the persistence of same should definitely change the tune in Russia and Putin. Why? Well IF Russia takes more of Ukraine all that is ahead of Russia is this + insurgency + constant guerilla warfare on the motherland for ever. Ukrainians will not go away you know … to use a phrase from over here



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,310 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    And interestingly, in these drones they are fully utilizing AI. Which means the drones dont use or depend on GPS which is what is used mainly by the opposition to detect drones. The AI is a mapping AI that recognises the terrain its flying over as it goes toward its target. So for there journey to the target they are totally self sufficient. Apparently this is the reasons russians cannot find them

    Absolutely fascinating & equally terrifying for all our futures if this falls into wrong hands:

    “Accuracy under jamming is enabled through the use of artificial intelligence. Each aircraft has a terminal computer with satellite and terrain data,” the source close to the drone program explained. “The flights are determined in advance with our allies, and the aircraft follow the flight plan to enable us to strike targets with meters of precision.”

    That precision is made possible by the drone’s sensors.

    “They have this thing called ‘machine vision,’ which is a form of AI. Basically you take a model and you have it on a chip and you train this model to identify geography and the target it is navigating to,” said Noah Sylvia, a research analyst at the Royal United Services Institute, a UK-based think tank. “When it is finally deployed, it is able to identify where it is.”

    “It does not require any communication (with satellites), it is completely autonomous,” Sylvia added.

    Post edited by aidanodr on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,310 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    Also from that CNN article I posted above this post:

    “From what we’ve seen, some of it is they’re striking targets that need a lot of Western technology and Russia has a much more difficult time procuring this technology,”

    Now thats clever



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,082 ✭✭✭Paddigol


    Terrifying to be honest. Right now they're being used by the good guys, but given how cheap and easy they seem to be to manufacture (compared to conventional weaponry), how long before the bad guys start exploiting them. In fact I'm surprised given the degradation of their resources, the Russians haven't turned to them more.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Was about to say same: if this is true and AI is being used in this fashion then suddenly drones become exponentially more dangerous and potentially cataclysmic in a western world already struggling to live with terrorism - domestic or otherwise - always nipping at its heels. You could be looking at a situation where that former disgruntled student in the US, instead of walking into a school with a gun, can simply pilot a drone into his classroom from the comfort of his bedroom, without anyone noticing before its too late.

    When the dust settles, we could see a ramping up of drone & AI legislation to put some functional limits on the things. For sure we might be seeing the end of the era when you can just buy a drone from the internet alongside your groceries.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,310 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    "In fact I'm surprised given the degradation of their resources, the Russians haven't turned to them more."

    Russia having "dumb" drones using moped engines is one thing .. like the Iran Shaheed drones. But I imagine fully AI controlled autonomous Drones is another level altogether tech wise & would need Western Hi end tech that Russia cannot access due to sanctions .. but Ukraine has full access to.

    And yes, terrifying. Ukraine rewriting modern warfare with essential experience of same that counts. With experience even the most advanced militaries ( eg US Army ) dont have. As you said issue is WHEN likes of ISIS and Al Queda etc get there hands on this type of long range tech. I am surprised that has not happened yet. This is why Macron/France are really fearful for the Olympics in Paris this summer



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,310 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    Just to be clear about the AI. Ukraine has basically packed a whole computer into a drone with full GPS info normally aquired from a satellite via GPS. So no more need for traceable GPS on board a drone. Completely self sufficient. Knows the terrain and direction of travel its flying over without any external assistance. A self drive drone so to speak. No remote "pilot" required.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    So, and even worse proposition cos a GPS blackout around schools (a non starter but still) won't stop them & if it's self sufficient good luck with the authorities tracing back the owner til they claim responsibility, cos the rubble and ruined drone will probably yield nothing.

    Yeah. If drones don't become highly regulated items by the decade's end, all because of these insanely possible use cases, I'll be shocked. Great to see Ukraine punching above their weight at the barbarians at their gates - but the future of these things looks scary.



This discussion has been closed.
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