Russia - threadbanned users in OP

scottser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122024815#Comment_122024815

Russia also would not still be in this fight if it wasn't for Chinese, Iranian and North Korean 'help'. And you are incorrect about Ukraine needing to win - Putin started the war so the pressure is on him to win. For Ukraine, even if this war ends up in some form of occupation by Russia, they will switch to guerilla and cyber attacks. Russia won't hold Ukraine for long.

20silkcut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122024990#Comment_122024990

Europe didn’t bow down to the US . It was devastated and on its knees in front of them. All the old empires were shattered . The vast majority of its land had been imprisoned for 4 years by a murderous regime that were industrially gassing and burning people in ovens by their millions. Europe was finished an absolute failure the lunatics had taken over the old order was gone and utterly discredited. America stepped into the breach reluctantly And thank god they did. The tragedy was that the Soviets took the Eastern portion and their nightmare continued for another 44 years.

zerosquared

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122025233#Comment_122025233

they can’t even make enough gasoline now

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1779951662955655460.html

Aside: how does one say “gas lighting” in Russian because that’s how reading last couple of pages above feels like

Poon Tang

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122025233#Comment_122025233

My bet is Russia will hold these new territories permanently, just like Crimea.

And Ukraine/the west have stated what a win should look like for them - they want everything back including Crimea. That's not going to happen. I doubt Russia will care about a guerrilla war. They won't deal with such a war, the same way the Brits did with us… they'll take the gloves off and the Ukrainians know this. Look at how they dealt with Chechnya. Ask yourself, why has there been very little of that in Crimea since they annexed it? The Ukrainians know better than to attempt such a style of fighting against Russia.

Ireland had some political support within the corridors of power in London, otherwise they could easily have wiped us off the map with our tiny little guerrilla campaigns. Ukraine will have no such support in the Kremlin post war, and nobody calling for anything like the sort of soft tactics / policies we witnessed from the Brits.

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122025080#Comment_122025080

The usual story goes something like Ukraine was a red line for Russia. Nobody else better look at Ukraine because Ukraine is Russia's bítch. But, goddammit, didn't the U.S. roll by anyway in its lowrider, giving Ukraine the bedroom eyes. Russia saw this, and when Ukraine went out to meet the US in the street, Russia was forced to drag her back by the hair and give her the pimp hand in order to remind her who daddy really was.

Something interesting you might notice in any, if not pro-Russia, then certainly anti-USA/west case which is made is that they all suggest no agency on the part of Ukraine. They all assume it is impossible that the Ukrainian people would in a majority sense prefer to pivot their political, social and economic values toward the West. Instead the assumption is that this drift toward the West arises from pernicious espionage. Something Robert Mearscheimer refers to quite vaguely as 'western social engineering' in his paper on why the Ukraine crisis is the West's fault.

Let's extrapolate on this and assume for the sake of argument that the above is true. Let's pick up this line of reasoning and start to follow it. Well, firstly, we know that Ukraine hasn't exactly been well treated during its time within the Russian sphere of influence and the shadow of Holodomor still looms over the country. We should know from our own history how devastating a famine can be and how it can sour relations with the authority blamed for causing it. We can also see that Ukraine's neighbours, such as Poland, joined the EU and gained considerable economic growth from it and aren't in any great hurry to leave it. So, this is just two broad demonstrations of why a country can become distant from one old ally and also be drawn to a new one. See the line begin to fray a little bit?

Let's walk along that line.

You see, Ukraine has not been Russia's only no-go area. In 2007, I think it was, at the Munich security conference, Putin painted the front row of dignitaries with flecks of spittle as he ranted about the injustice of NATO expansion. As Putin saw it, this was never supposed to happen. This was the breaking of a verbal promise made in 1990 that NATO would not place military infrastructure in East Germany and NATO did not place military infrastructure in the former East Germany. However, NATO did eventually come to Poland and several other Eastern Bloc countries. More accurately, they applied to join and this was accepted.

Why is this pertinent?

It's pertinent because the mentality that Ukraine is a red line is the same mentality which would have said that those former Eastern Bloc countries was a red line. It was just a red line which Russia was too weak to do anything about at the time, but Putin would still rant about it years later and become determined never to let it happen again. However, nobody really talks about the 'Western social engineering' that went on in Poland or Romania or Bulgaria. Largely, we accept that it is those countries democratic wish to be west-facing. Why do some people not afford that same assumption to Ukraine? Why is it that when somebody like Zelensky gets elected, that's supposed to be Western interference, but when Yanukovych backed out of a trade deal with the EU, leading to the Euromaidan protests, that's apparently above board? Don't hear the usual heads mention that bit in the same breath…

It's clear from Putin's own writings that he regards Russia as something of a victim of history, especially when he talks about how Ukraine was formed in the first place. It's also clear from how he runs his country with his circle of oligarchs and tight grip on power that he has no particular interest in creating an egalitarian country that develops itself and makes it an attractive and prosperous place to live, such that Ukraine would naturally want to stay in its orbit. He wants control and brutal suppression of discontent.

But please, trolls, tell us more about why Ukraine wouldn't want to leave such a shambolic setup.

Igotadose

Great post

Paddigol

At least we've progressed to accepting that the US is not in a war. Baby steps.

Next lesson ' "Why China is not currently a more healthy/ stable nation than the US".

Field east

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122025070#Comment_122025070

and another point- it was the USSR ITSELF, ITSELF, ITSELF that decided to break some of its ‘ in house republics’ away from the USSR. Nobody influenced it to do so. And now Putin. Wants to wind back the clock because he sees it as a MAJOR mistake. And when that is achieved - including East Germany - think Alaska for starters. And why is Putin currently doing everything to disrupt everything and anything that ‘he can get his hands on’ Eg interfering in elections, poisonings , spreading false information, funding overseas private armies, hacking into overseas commercial companies/ government institutions and some posters here recommending that we go down the partner route with Russia. Germany was trying it and we see where that has lead us/ the world

Field east

Re expanding NATO’s membership in an eastern direction . NATO was set up to protect countries that felt that they might be invaded anytime in the future - so a purely defensive stance- and that they would come to each others aid. So Putin gave Sweden and Finland a 1000% reason to join NATO. When they saw Putin Attacking Ukr for no logical/meaningful reason - apart from his on logic- Sweden and Finland saw the writing on the wall and both would have been VERY. Isolated if outside Of NATO .
So MR PUTIN that train has left the station - thanks 1000% to you.
what’s of interest is that ‘ all the talk’ was about NATO not expanding beyond West Germany but there has NEVER any talk about Russia/ USSR expanding up to the borders of NATO countries

zerosquared

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122025539#Comment_122025539

Great point!
Kazakhstan rang and left a message

as the last remaining member of USSR they want their UN Security Council seat and nukes back

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122025329#Comment_122025329

Nope, not going to happen like that. Europe will not tolerate Russia on its borders and will support Ukraine to make sure that it will not happen. First, Ukraine will join the EU, (already in progress) and later on they will join NATO. Russia tried their best for 10 years to control Afghanistan and failed. They are not going to win a guerrilla war in Ukraine either, even if it comes to that. Putin's Russian Federation is slowly but surely disintegrating mainly due to the fact that the war is absorbing too much money from the economy. Its currently struggling, all these dams breaking etc. is only the tip of the iceberg.

eoinbn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122025839#Comment_122025839

The EU/Russia already share a border - how will it not tolerate Russia on its border?

Ukraine joining the EU depends on Ukraine winning the war which looks less and less likely. The next week will be key - what will Johnson's deal look like.

Russia wouldn't fight a Guerilla war - they would just wipe out the locals if they didn't play ball. Stop applying western standards to Russia. They don't play by the same rules.

Timelines are important. Will Russia 'disintegrate' this year, next year or in 10 years?

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122025329#Comment_122025329

I kind of agree with your points about resistance & guerilla warfare in Ukraine's lost territories, but it is interesting to see a pro-Russia poster boast that the Russian govt.'s sheer brutality and their willingness to utilise terror tactics (on full display during this war) is a big asset for a "successful" occupation! A mask off moment.

Poon Tang

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122025839#Comment_122025839

Ukraine have little or no control within these annexed territories, so any guerrilla war will be taking place within Russia and Ukraine will fail miserably just like they're failing miserably to get their land back - despite eyewatering levels of western aid. Which will not continue for very much longer.

Remember, it's the US who are carrying insane levels of national debt. It was already ridiculous 10 years ago, it has doubled since then. Russia's economy is actually doing remarkably well all things considered, and they are in a defensive posture now so Ukraine/the west are expending more manpower and resources.

zerosquared

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122025888#Comment_122025888

Timelines are important

Will Russia “win” this year, next year, or in 10 years

And what does a “victory” looks like if Russia remains most sanctioned country in world, sanctions mount, trade with “western” world dwindles to a trickle and hundreds of billions in their frozen assets are confiscated

riffmongous

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122025210#Comment_122025210

There's quite a few dubious inclusions, but yet Chechnya doesn't even get a direct mention

20silkcut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122025888#Comment_122025888

Russia mercilessly and genocidally wiping out local resistance in places like Kiev , kharkiv , Lviv etc will not be accepted and will utterly discredit any remaining legitimacy they have as a country. Look what happened the Serbs when they tried that tactic.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122025888#Comment_122025888

Who said such a guerrilla war would be conducted only in Ukraine. It'd be brought to the streets of Moscow and other cities. Very difficult to wipe out Muscovites and keep citizens on board.

Poon Tang

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122025914#Comment_122025914

I'm not pro or anti Russia. I just don't swallow the nonsense we've been fed for 2 years about this war, or it's origins either.

All of these large power players are brutal in their own ways. The Russians are no more barbaric than the yanks in how they try to eliminate a threat, but they just do it in a different way. The Americans try to pretend they're very civilized, but it's just a façade. Russia will ruthlessly squash any terrorism or guerrilla style war, they won't tolerate it or make any attempt to appease anybody.

Anyone who thinks the Russians are more ruthless in nature, you clearly haven't been looking at the evidence of what certain nations have been doing around the world for the last half a century or more. There is a top dog in the league of brutality, and it ain't the Russians or the Chinese leading that table right now!

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122025914#Comment_122025914

I think you'd see as much guerilla warfare as we're currently seeing in what of Ukraine Russia currently occupies, which doesn't appear to be a whole lot or enough to destabilise the administrations which the Russians have set up in those areas.

Guerilla warfare somewhat relies on restraint by the occupier not to shoot civilians who the guerillas can disappear among after an attack. The Russians don't really have those kinds of scruples. If the Russians deemed a guerilla campaign to be bad enough, they'd just shoot everybody or deport them to gulags and forcibly adopt out the infant children. I don't think there's any length of depravity to which Putin wouldn't go if he held Ukraine and wanted to maintain the grip, including full ethnic cleansing.

Hoop66

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122025932#Comment_122025932

Russia's economy is actually doing remarkably well all things considered

Wibbs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122025259#Comment_122025259

The US occupied Germany and could have controlled much of Western Europe if they wanted to. In 1945 they were the military and economic superpower. They could have dropped nukes on Moscow, or anywhere else pretty much unopposed. For all their faults and they have a few, they could have run with that overseas, but they didn't. They threw trillions at Europe to rebuild it. The post war economic and social growth across much of the world and especially in the West has much to thank the Yanks for. Compare and contrast with Russia and how well the nations under their control(and it was far more direct control) fared.

China was fooked post WW2, after Mao went for a great reset and the resultant famines that killed millions meant it didn't recover until the 80's. So they were off the geopolitical table, though they did throw cash at revolutions in their backyard even while their own people were resorting to cannibalism. QV Indochina, North Korea. Iran was a clusterfook, made worse by US and British oil concerns, so they weren't on the table either. Oh and China hasn't been "communist" for decades. They were bright enough to realise it didn't work, so now just wear the label, but are a single party, single leader autocratic state.

And yep I can indeed call what's happening in the US a free press and democracy. Periods of apparent chaos are what often mark both out. One sure sign of functioning democracies for all their issues is change and even surprise. Trump was one. Brexit another. Hell the recent defeat in the referendum of pretty much the entire Irish political class is one too. You don't get that with totalitarian states like Russia. How many different parties, prime ministers and presidents has the average western democracy had compared to the 20+ years Putin has been ensconced in his leadership role? Oh he passed on the presidency to his patsy for a time so that he could come back and change their constitution to allow him to rule for life.

"Oh but the chaos is different now!!". Instant news and social media makes it feel different but nope, it's really not. Imagine twitter had been around in the 1960's that so many halfwits in the US see as a Golden Age©. In 60's America you had duck and cover, fear of commies and invasion and The Bomb™, Cuban missile crisis, their president shot dead like a dog in the street, his brother shot later on, along with MLK and Malcolm X among others, race riots, national guard on the streets setting dogs on people, a couple of mass shootings to add to the mix, Vietnam, drugs, the sexual revolution, women's lib, abortion, men on the moon while poor kids were dying in the projects and places like NY were murder capitals beyond 5th Avenue and the neon. If your average slackjawed "MAGA" or dopey "Liberal" were watching all that now, they'd have a complete fooking meltdown on Twitter. Goes for pretty much any 20th century decade in America too. But, oh look, America is still there. On the other hand Russia/Soviet Union was on the surface far more stable, but the latter isn't around any more and the former is a shadow of what it could be if it weren't so badly run for the benefit of a tiny minority.

Poon Tang

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122025539#Comment_122025539

Does this still pass as logic? That Putin wants to reform the old soviet bloc? lol

And take back Alaska? lol ffs

Seriously, anyone who actually swallowed that nonsense at the beginning of this war, deserves some sort of medal for epic levels of stupidity.

The Americans just basically sold you the boogie man under the bed, and you bought it hook line and sinker. It's depressing how easy it is to fool some people. Makes me wonder how easily we'll get dragged into some ridiculous war with China next… again another completely un-winnable conflict.

Virgil°

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122025988#Comment_122025988

I'm not pro or anti Russia. I just don't swallow the nonsense we've been fed for 2 years about this war, or it's origins either.

Then proceeds to recite literal kremlin talking points. You are 100% pro russian. No question about it.

fly_agaric

@Poon Tang

I'm not pro or anti Russia. I just don't swallow the nonsense we've been fed for 2 years about this war, or it's origins either.

All of these large power players are brutal in their own ways. The Russians are no more barbaric than the yanks in how they try to eliminate a threat, but they just do it in a different way. The Americans try to pretend they're very civilized, but it's just a façade. Russia will ruthlessly squash any terrorism or guerrilla style war, they won't tolerate it or make any attempt to appease anybody.

Anyone who thinks the Russians are more ruthless in nature, you clearly haven't been looking at the evidence of what certain nations have been doing around the world for the last half a century or more. There is a top dog in the league of brutality, and it ain't the Russians or the Chinese leading that table right now!

You should own it (the pro Russia label) rather than pretend objectivity.

The boast about effectiveness and efficiency of ruthless Gestapo-like tactics for quelling dissent and occupying hostile territory was an accidental start towards honesty.

The second paragraph is nonsense, you can't relativise the differences away like that. You are contradicting yourself too. I mean you even mentioned/semi-mocked at "the Brits" (of the early 20C) and how they dealt with guerilla warfare in Ireland in a restrained by comparison (with Soviet's, CCP's, or Putin's Russia) way.

If there are no differences, it is all the same, or just a "facade" and militaries/occupiers will just pretend to be civilised, why did you bring that up? I think it definitely made a difference to people of this country, and how events developed here since then.

You have the usual Soviet/CCP shaped blind spots in your ranking of evils of this world over last "half century or more" IMO but that has all been done to death and prob. nothing I can repeat will change your mind or anyone else's.

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122025988#Comment_122025988

Untrue.

There was widespread outrage from US citizens when news came back about atrocities their soldiers had committed in the Vietnam war. It was dwindling public support from this which is a large factor in why the US had to withdraw in the end.

By contrast, this kind of public protest is pretty much off limits in Russia and expressions of discontent about the war has led to mass arrests, all for the simple act of protesting.

When the Abu Ghraib torture came to light, there was also outrage and repercussions for the soldiers found to have been involved.

When Yevgheny Prigozhin bragged about a turncoat his men killed with a sledgehammer, he, well, it wasn't that incident which turned Putin against him, oh no. He was still bessie mates with Putin at this time. And remember those big demonstrations in Moscow about Bucha? Yeah, me neither.

All you're doing is using the oft-used fallacy that just because no side is perfect that they're as bad as each other. This is patently false. The Russians will bomb and blast Ukraine to bits if they see fit and can, with barely a peep about it back home. This is untrue of western countries, including the US. It's one of the things which places like Russia and China see as a weakness of the West; that its too tolerant and merciful. They (Russia and China et al don't give a fúck about human rights when it comes to opponents in combat. Due process? Just gets in the way.

eoinbn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122025963#Comment_122025963

This is already happening and we are standing by....

Bucha, Bakhmut, Mariupol... The list goes on.

Poon Tang

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122026091#Comment_122026091

I would have no qualms about admitting if I was pro-Russian, since I don't view this conflict the same way you likely do. But I'm not.

The fact that anyone who questions the official narrative gets labelled as such, is part of the reason why these stupid conflicts rage on for so long - they become ideological. Nobody can pass the picket line or get called some sort of heretic… well fcuk that, I'll speak my mind. If that makes me a kremlin bot or whatever the latest buzz word is, so be it.

We have been fed a bunch of nonsense about this conflict. The Russians have very little control over the narrative in the western media, so it has mostly been us feeding ourselves our own BS!

Brussels Sprout

Isn't it amazing how all these people claiming to be neutral just end up spouting Kremlin talking points?

Well actually no it's not really. It's really the goal of Kremlin propaganda in the west. Their messages to Western audiences aren't designed to make people be supportive of Russia. No, instead they are designed to drag down everyone else - to muddy the waters if you will. They try to inject and promote cynicism in every target country. Given all of the social and economic problems in late stage capitalism in an era of accelerating climate change that's pushing at an open door.

Poon Tang

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122026207#Comment_122026207

Would this not be better suited to a conspiracy theory forum? Unless you have solid evidence to back up this level of sophistication in propaganda? Russia are generally considered to be pretty useless at the information war, compared with the west. Again, it just comes off as boogie man under the bed type logic.