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2024 Irish EV Sales

1356720

Comments

  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 8,086 Mod ✭✭✭✭liamog


    You could equally spin the same story as I'm getting a 60k car for 45k.

    The person in the story who's talking of an ID.4 that lost 22k in two years from their 60k car, doesn't mention that the replacement is now 45k, giving them an actual loss of 7k if they change.



  • Registered Users Posts: 992 ✭✭✭crl84


    How so?

    All I see in that article is a long piece about a (supposedly real) person who bought their car outright in cash and is now moaning that it has depreciated a lot in the first two years of ownership. Aside from the fact that an anonymous "senior executive at a major Irish-based company" would be far more likely to have a company car, due to the obvious financial advantage, there are other things in the article that seem unlikely, if not untrue, eg.: "This owner noticed that a similar-specification diesel-engine model which was priced at €58,000 on the day they bought their ID. 4 was being retailed second-hand on the same forecourt for €55,000." - I don't know what "a similar spec diesel model" of an ID4 is, but I can guarantee that none that were retailing for 58k two years ago has only lost 3k in depreciation in two years.

    They then go on to give a list of things, such as instantaneous fires (lol), that will mean they have to sell their EV and buy a diesel, despite seemingly the issue earlier in the piece being deprecation.

    There's basically nothing else of note in the article.

    As pointed out above, lower prices means more people can buy an EV 2nd hand, and likely means even more people becoming EV owners.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,576 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    The cost of the replacement doesn't matter as they don't want one. His loss is 22/28k.



  • Registered Users Posts: 992 ✭✭✭crl84


    If they are, then they're a bit of a moron, as brand new diesels have similar levels of depreciation. Probably less than an EV bought 2 years ago, but about the same as these cheaper EVs available now. As I said in another thread, if you're worried about depreciation, then don't buy a new car, whatever the fuel source.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 40,027 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gumbo


    More BS. Adrian Headwrecker has jumped on the same bandwagon.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,343 ✭✭✭✭rob316


    Think you are another few years away for mass adoption of EV. Personally if I'm buying a new car tomorrow it will be a diesel.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,576 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    I can see their frustration, I jumed out of the ID family quick, took a hit but glad I didn't hold as lost litreally nothing on the following 2 cars.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 40,027 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gumbo


    Many did. But those journalists have a facility to reach the public with their article and they are using that to vent their anger at the wrong choices they made or lack of research etc

    Imagine 2 major newspapers putting this story out because EV sales dropped by 0.34% compared to last January. I just think it’s laughable.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,948 ✭✭✭kanuseeme


    I see this pop up a few times recently here,

    this is my opinion on it, the 2 year old id4 is worth less than 38k, we all agree the new is worth 45k, there is no way on earth that I now value a 2 year old at 38k, why should I, a new one is only 7k more, I just sign up for 60 payments instead of 48, I get a newer car more warranty, less degradation etc.

    So that leaves the guy with a 22k drop, does he agree with my valuation on it, which is whatever the 2 years of depreciation is on a 45k car, or does he keep it. spreading the devaluation out over more years, say 10 years and its worth zero ( its just a thought exercise no need for any of you regulars to get upset) so 6 k a year, my new car I have decided its fantastic and I keep it 10 years ( its just a thought exercise ) 4.5 k a year, the only winner is the guy who buys now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,464 ✭✭✭sk8board


    I’ve been saying exactly this for months - the people who I know personally on my street who’ve either been Musked, or bought an expensive ID4, both of them working through the ‘known beta test issues’ - they’re not buying another because they don’t want to. Pretty simple.

    its very hard to convince someone that the solution to their problem is to buy another of the same thing in order to crystalise a large loss instead of a huge loss



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,343 ✭✭✭✭rob316


    That's my same thought, if I'm spending 40-50k on a car it'll be a tried and trusted technology. Diesel is still holding good value



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 40,027 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gumbo


    You get great joy from that statement being “musked”.

    Kinda like a repetitive disorder that you mention it in every thread in the forum.

    I assume you have the same saying for people that have been “Blumed” or “Zipsed”?

    I don’t understand strange the behavior of individuals that hang around sub forums they have no knowledge or interest in. Fine, you don’t want an EV. So what. You don’t have to remind the world every day.

    Your “friends”, “neighbors” and “co-Workers” are probably happy with their cars and don’t want to change. How hard is it to accept that 🤷



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,209 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Diesel will hold good value until it doesn't. The depreciation is gradual until it falls off a cliff edge, as the demand for 2nd hand diesels will disappear.

    We are definitely a good few years before EVs become adopted by the mass market, but when that happens the sizeable cohort of people who would get an EV second hand only for price being too high, will suddenly have plenty of affordable options. On that day, demand for diesel will plummet.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,275 ✭✭✭✭josip


    It doesn't matter how you dress it up, the alleged person in the article made a poor decision and bought at the top of the market. The article says that such price corrections are rare but neglect to mention the previously unseen increases in new (EV) car prices 2021-2023. Most were saying prices were nuts and nobody was forced to buy during that time. I don't know what describing him as a senior executive in a major company is trying to achieve. If it's trying to impress, it achieves the opposite. It makes him look stupid.

    Also, zero introspection and taking responsibility for his current situation, "..looking back, yeah prices were a bit high and there were warning signs". No, the remainder of his comment is just sour grapes and talk of reverting to diesel is just doubling down on being stupid. If that person is real, he should be very annoyed with Neil Briscoe this evening for how stupid he makes him appear. Hopefully it is an imaginary person in Neil's head, because there's so much identifying information in that article to make the anonymity worthless.

    Finally, anyone who trades in after 2 years for new and who has been buying cars for longer than the past 3 years, should be well used to taking a financial hit.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,275 ✭✭✭✭josip


    I'd think the opposite, EVs have had a major price reduction and are now a safer buying proposition than the diesel which might also be getting a price cut in the future.



  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 8,086 Mod ✭✭✭✭liamog


    So rough end of the story, person buys car for 55k (+5k grant) and is offered 33k after 22 months. That's a 40% depreciation in two years.

    Are we expecting all new cars sales to end if they hit 40% depreciation in 2 years. I thought a common rule of thumb was that car's lose between 15% and 20% per year. Person in the story has seen a 22% rate based on the market conditions.

    Person has an option to upgrade to a similar spec of car and avoid the loss but doesn't want to for reasons.

    Here's an article from the same publication giving market values of just 35% for cars after 3 years.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,576 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    You're completely ignoring the diesel buyer in the story, then use an article from 8yrs ago to show depreciation rates, that's not what's happened over the last couple of years in Ireland, some people didn't even realise any depreciation.

    There's been some massive depreciation in the ev market no matter what way you spin it. Your kinda saying well it's his own fault for not buying another ID, much the way a Tesla owner might talk about their own depreciation, sure isn't a new one cheaper to change into now. Your missing the capital has been eroded.

    Hey these are cars though and man maths always wins out so what ever works for you.



  • Registered Users Posts: 485 ✭✭PaulRyan97


    I think there's a lot of unnecessary panicking here about this minor drop in share YoY.

    I'd imagine by the end of Q1 share will have increased up beyond 15-16%. There a couple factors at play here.

    The most popular EV, the ID.4 suffered at the hands of VWs ridiculous pricing strategy towards the end of the year. That caused a tank in new orders, forcing them in mid-December to reduce prices across the board. The majority sold in January were pre-facelift models already in stock that hadn't been registered and sold for the cut prices. All new orders made post price cut have yet to begin production. I wouldn't expect them to start coming in until the Summer as Volkswagen is having trouble building enough AP550 motors to supply the ID.4/5/7, Enyaq and Q4.

    Tesla have yet to begin delivering the new Highland Model 3 but have been taking orders for it now for at least 2 months. This should be a popular vehicle at its current asking price.

    Higher interest rates have made financing much more expensive than it has been over the last few years. Expensive cars took a hit, EVs are predominantly occupying the higher end of the market, so they can be seen to have taken a disproportionate hit. Outside of specific models having sales fluctuations I think this will be the trend that dominates the market this year.



  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 8,086 Mod ✭✭✭✭liamog


    Capital has always been eroded with new car purchases. Is it really newsworthy to say person loses money after driving a new car for 2 years? When a claim is made that somebody lost 22k in 2 years it's sounds bad, when you put that into perspective of people should expect to lose between 15% and 20% per year, and that instead they've lost 22% per year. Its shows the sensationalism involved.

    You are of course correct that we've had an unusual couple of years when it comes to new car's depreciating less, the fact that the market is returning back to normal shouldn't be too much of a shock. I wonder if we'll see articles about the value drop of '24 diesels in '26 when they go through expected levels of depreciation.

    There wasn't a diesel buyer in the story, there was an anecdote about a VW diesel being on sale at the same time as the ID.4 purchase which on the lot with a sticker price showing not much change. Are we also going to make it newsworthy that dealers offer lower trade ins than they advertise the car for?

    If EV sales are going to stop because new cars lose money, then we should expect to see a stop on all new car sales.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,576 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    It's the rate of depreciation that matters but I do see it slowing as new prices fall and the used stock becomes tempting. You won't have a 22k shock if the price is lower.

    Grants and incentives are critical though as we're in the 1st few seconds of the revolution.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,691 ✭✭✭✭fits


    Just got this to my inbox. How much were they before? 57 or something outlandish like that?





  • Registered Users Posts: 992 ✭✭✭crl84


    Quick Google suggests that they started at 49.

    More for higher spec models, I presume €43,500 is for the base model.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,692 ✭✭✭maidhc


    EVs will sell when they are 1) consistently cheaper to buy and own than an ice and 2) convenient. People are pretty straightforward.

    a huge increase in petrol prices will do it. I am sure an oil crisis coupled with good grants for pv generation would do it.

    as of 2024 the sums don’t favour evs.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,163 ✭✭✭Firblog


    Where is the 360Km stretch of motorway? Drove from Cork to Charlestown last week in a Kona, had 100km range left when I pulled in for a coffee, muffin & a charge. Did the Limerick to Galway section @ 130Kmph on the Kona speedo..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,664 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    No, the actual loss is 22k. That's the amount of cash they fronted, less the value of their car.

    If they trade up to a €45k car they will have spent €29k more than the combined value of both cars.

    If they had bought a Tiguan for similar money, that car would be worth €10k more than the ID4 today.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,691 ✭✭✭✭fits


    On pcp anyway aren’t you protected from high depreciation? Your gfmv is worst case scenario value after the three years.



  • Registered Users Posts: 232 ✭✭Ev fan


    Of course you are correct that the senior manager's loss was 22k over 2 years but it does bear more analysis. The 1st thing to say is as has been mentioned here already is that anyone buying a new car needs to be able to accept normal depreciation levels over a number of years. On high cost cars then depreciation costs will be high in actual cash terms. In this case 30% would be normal for 2 years which means an expected 16.5k loss plays against an actual loss of 22k. So now we have an unexpected additional loss of 5.5k. The car has higher than normal average mileage of 30k- with 20k being normal. This drops the car's value by at least another 1k. So we are now down to an additional loss of 4.5k. What would be his fuel savings over the 2 years? - assuming that as a senior manager he is reasonably smart he would have a smart meter at home and hence would benefit from cheaper electricity? In any event it would not be beyond the bounds of possibility that he could have fuel savings of 0.5k per 10000kms - so 3k savings in total. So now we are now down to an unexpected loss of 1.5k in an original 60k cost car. Still not good and he is obviously emotional when he makes the idiotic comment about instantaneous fires - if he really believed that he wouldn't have got the car in the 1st place. As regards the 2 year old diesel with little depreciation- good luck with going into a dealer with a 2yr old diesel and expecting that trade in value. Carzone is chocker block with well overpriced used cars with too little depreciation.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,828 ✭✭✭Old diesel


    Hold up......

    Is it really a thing now that you can be a managing director of a big company.....

    And not have some sort of car related benefits built into your contract.

    Whether it's a direct company car or a car allowance......

    Especially with the BIk incentives available on EVs in 2022



  • Registered Users Posts: 232 ✭✭Ev fan


    I agree with you- why did the manager not avail of the very generous BIK benefits and buy the car through the business? this does not make sense without further explanation. Maybe he was expensing his considerable mileage bringing the cost of running the car to a minimum? I was responding Maybe somewhat tongue in cheek to the facts as reported- that he bought the car outright with his own cash. Even in this scenario I was trying to make the point that he lost very little more than normal depreciation. He also had the benefit of driving a very comfortable,smooth and quiet car for 60000km. Stories like this which are light/economical on the facts are more suited to the daily mail/ the sun newspapers.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,664 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    There's a couple of things there. Yes, there does seem to be some sort of thought out there that EVs were expected to be very low depreciation cars. In the example cited, I'd expect a similarly specced Tiguan to an ID4 to be making low €40s today. No one will sell a 2yr old diesel example with 60k Kms for 55k today. So the unexpected cost to this man is €10k. Not all of this can come down to price cuts, as six months ago a 21 reg ID4 77kwh 1st 30k kms could be bought for low 30's (I know, I bought one). That same car is fetching at most €27k now. About half of that depreciation in the last 6 months can be assigned directly to VWs price cut.

    The important thing to state though is the depreciation curve without the price cuts was well ahead of other VWs. No amount of man maths or wishful thinking about cost to change alters that.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 232 ✭✭Ev fan


    Per your maths the manager is sitting on a 10k loss by buying the ID4 rather than the diesel Tiguan (for example). Depreciation on Tiguans seems to be significantly lower than normal and I'm not going to speculate why that is - maybe someone with market knowledge might enlighten me. In the meantime a Tiguan owner would not have gained the significant savings of EV BIK or tax allowances or mileage expenses (take your pick which the manager had because I don't believe for a moment that he didn't get some significant monetary benefit). Also you as an EV owner will have some experience of the additional savings that accrue from much reduced fuel costs especially bearing in mind the relatively high mileage of 60000km. If you do your own maths on these 2 factors then I think his loss on paper will be a lot less than 10k. That being said the manager did make an unexpected loss due to bigger depreciation/price reduction on the ID4 - maybe just not as big as was claimed. FYI I traded my 2 Yr old ID3 last year for a new Born. I got a 33k trade in value which was a ridiculously low 10% depreciation off the new price for an ID3. The ID3 has been on Carzone for a long time now and is currently asking 27k. I think it will need to drop another 2k before it will sell. The new Born has dropped in price by 2k which of course will reduce the trade in value of my car when I go change it - probably in 2026. Ultimately I went in with my eyes open and I am not unduly concerned that my Born may be worth less than I thought at that time.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,664 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    Don't get me wrong, I think the example person used in the article is a poor one. Assuming that the driver does average social domestic and pleasure driving the extra over is work travel then they'd have received €12k in travel expenses. As a director they'd surely have "free" work charging giving a fuel bill of nil netting them a further €6k saving over diesel. True, they'd have been entitled to the travel expenses regardless of fuel type but my sympathy is minimal in this case, they haven't done too badly. Emotion seems to be ruling them anyway with the throwaway comment about them "bursting into flames".

    This person is the exception though. There are plenty of people out there that have taken a hiding on their car values in the last year - cars that the media were happy to push as the future 12 months ago but also happy now to effectively rubbish them.

    One line I thought interesting that was glossed over was the 60k km of uneventful driving. A year ago, they'd have led the article with that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 232 ✭✭Ev fan


    Good response. Just to add to your point on some people taking a hiding. Eddie Cunningham in the Indo today- woman bought a new ID5 last year for eur 62k. Of course the car doesn't suit her now and wants to change. Car now valued at eur 40k. Yikes!!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,771 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    EVs are far cheaper to run. The purchase price is on par with ICE. the sums do add up



  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 8,086 Mod ✭✭✭✭liamog


    Mod Note: Thread for taxation is here taxation-of-alternative-fuelled-vehicles is over here https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058278820/taxation-of-alternative-fuelled-vehicles couple of posts moved



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,275 ✭✭✭✭josip


    February figures are up on beep beep. https://stats.beepbeep.ie/

    EV percentage of sales still lagging 2023 and have slipped even further relative to January




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,464 ✭✭✭sk8board


    Just saw that.

    Jan EV market share was 13.0% (4,100 EV sales), versus 13.4% in Jan 2023

    Feb EV market share was just 11.3% (1,860 EV sales), versus 16.8% in Feb 2023, which is quite a fall in share, when a hockeystick adoption curve was probably expected.


    the year on year share would’ve been truly awful if it wasn’t for Tesla & BYD delivering 413 & 575 cars respectively, versus zero in 2023.

    Big drops for all of the 2023 stalwarts - VW, Kia, Hyundai, BMW, Nissan, Renault, Cupra, etc etc.

    only MG, Mercedes & Volvo bucking the trend, which is a surprise to me

    2024 v 2023: by manufacturer


    2024 v 2023 by propulsion:

    Again, Tesla and byd really saving the blushes here



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,464 ✭✭✭sk8board


    For sure.

    I think the EV depreciation will keep happening in the 2nd hand market as it seems that more price cuts will be needed in the new car market to shift volume and meet targets.

    the Feb new car registrations are in, and EVs have taken a beating when you consider all the price cuts of existing options, coupled with new options like BYD. If it wasn’t for Tesla and byd, the year on year number wouldn’t been heavily negative


    Post edited by sk8board on


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 8,086 Mod ✭✭✭✭liamog


    That's what happens when you offer a compelling product at a good price point. Good to see consumers trying out BYD's offering.

    Interesting that the refreshed Kona is the bestselling EV so far this year. Seems that we're still very much in the cycle of sales coming with new models.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,493 ✭✭✭✭TitianGerm


    Keep in mind that Tesla have had delivery delays so their figures would have been even higher for February if not for the delays and I'd imagine a lot of initial ID4 1st buyers will have orders for the new model ID4 due in March/April which will tie in with their PCP deals ending.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,198 ✭✭✭Buddy Bubs


    Too many EV models are untouchable at the moment due to price uncertainty.

    Anyone that has a comparable offering to the Tesla model 3 and y and id3/id4 and hasn't dropped prices to those levels must be selling nothing. I think it will change but they've missed a couple of prime selling months there.

    I'll have a good look at the breakdowns by model later.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,045 ✭✭✭Casati


    People come off PCP whenever they want to change out of their cars, many launch ID4 owners have already traded while many others will be planning to keep their cars long term,so I wound t expect a massive surge in ID4 orders based on that reason next month



  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 8,086 Mod ✭✭✭✭liamog


    Definitely an element of that, Hyundai, Kia, and BMW still seem to be running on '23 prices and haven't moved with the market. VW have been very coy with price cuts. Not surprising to see the main cars still selling well are those where the Model 3 and Y don't compete.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,493 ✭✭✭✭TitianGerm


    My father has one ordered and his dealer has said that he's about 15 other orders from initial ID4 buyers upgrading as well. Maybe it's bullshit but he's been honest in all the years they've been dealing together.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,198 ✭✭✭Buddy Bubs


    The dealers are just waiting on boardroom decisions I suppose.

    Kia and Hyundai were the 2 I was thinking of alright. They have great EVs in the Ioniq 5 and the ev6 but too pricey just at the minute.

    BMW will be back in the running when they get some new models out and price differently.

    Audi are a funny one, for all their talk about becoming an electric only brand they haven't really kicked off. Q4 never sold in big numbers, the price gap to an id4 is now huge. That should be their volume seller. Q8 and GT are range topping models that won't ever sell in big numbers.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,142 ✭✭✭✭the_amazing_raisin


    Not surprised, that's what happens when you try to price yourself out of a market and then let the competition from China take over

    New ID.4 looks like a better deal than last couple of years, but unless you like VW there's not many reasons to spend more on one than the competition

    "The internet never fails to misremember" - Sebastian Ruiz, aka Frost



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,464 ✭✭✭sk8board


    PCP’s are geared towards moving to another new car at the end of the 3 years - given the flux in the 2nd hand market around range, warranty and everything else, I’d fully expect owners of ID4’s to simply move into another one and kick that can down the road once again.

    there will be absolutely no one paying off the balloon on an ID4 that they overpaid for



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,493 ✭✭✭✭TitianGerm


    My father was offered 26k. He paid around 44k so 40% depreciation over three years. Not to bad and he's happy with his offer.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,771 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    Tesla, VW,BYD and others have all price certainty. Who do you think doesn’t ?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,464 ✭✭✭sk8board


    Those early ones where cheaper, I believe, so he had a fairly normal experience, in and out.



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