2024 Irish EV Sales

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121710979#Comment_121710979

I think the perception of grants being removed doesn’t help. I’m not saying they should stay as the manufacturers should be reducing the artificially high prices but I’ve often heard people saying “sure the grants are going” I’m not getting one now!

I am seeing a change in work though. Some staunch diesel heads now looking at EV’s. They don’t mind the general warranty being out but they are actively looking for cars that are still within the battery warranty.

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121710953#Comment_121710953

They've been bragging about "their" solid state batteries and that they will be in their EVs next year for about a decade now. Swansong of vaporware.

josip

I have nothing but admiration for Toyota. I thought that by this stage people would be wise to their lies. They have made billions by predicting that there's a sufficient percentage of the market that they can keep stringing along forever.

crl84

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121710953#Comment_121710953

The next gen EVs they've been saying are coming any time now since 2017?

Toyota are full of sh1t.

kanuseeme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121711377#Comment_121711377

You have to take this stuff with a pinch of salt much like the self driving gimmick and any one who doesn't buy a tesla might as well buy a horse.

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121711560#Comment_121711560

Tesla are not the only show in town. Far from it. BYD on par with them IMO. I ignore the self driving propaganda from the likes of Mercedes etc that only works on a few roads in Germany and up to 30 mph or something and they now want to add different colours to the front of their cars to demonstrate when cars are in self driving mode!

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121711560#Comment_121711560

There was a case around a year ago where Tesla were offering exceptional value compared to any comparable EV in the market. I think the people who bought 62k ID.5s vs spending 45k on Model Y were nuts.

Now the market conditions have changed the ID.5 starts at 46.6k. Thankfully the price corrections are hitting across many manufacturers which will benefit car buyers. When people seek advice it should always be taken in the context it was given.

drunkmonkey

Irish Times article just now wouldn't exactly inspire confidence https://www.irishtimes.com/motors/2024/02/02/tumbling-prices-for-new-electric-cars-is-not-all-good-news/

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121711847#Comment_121711847

Prices High, EVs too expensive due to high purchase price

Prices Drop, EVs too expensive due to depreciation

Low resale prices for the overpriced 2022 EVs shouldn't cause issues for a 2024 EV that's sold for 3/4 of the 2022 price.

drunkmonkey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121711888#Comment_121711888

It says it in the article, Do you not think people looking at 2024 cars see the price of 2022 ones and go, oh hell no, i'm not prepared to lose that kind of money, safer buy the diesel.

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121711896#Comment_121711896

You could equally spin the same story as I'm getting a 60k car for 45k.

The person in the story who's talking of an ID.4 that lost 22k in two years from their 60k car, doesn't mention that the replacement is now 45k, giving them an actual loss of 7k if they change.

crl84

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121711847#Comment_121711847

How so?

All I see in that article is a long piece about a (supposedly real) person who bought their car outright in cash and is now moaning that it has depreciated a lot in the first two years of ownership. Aside from the fact that an anonymous "senior executive at a major Irish-based company" would be far more likely to have a company car, due to the obvious financial advantage, there are other things in the article that seem unlikely, if not untrue, eg.: "This owner noticed that a similar-specification diesel-engine model which was priced at €58,000 on the day they bought their ID. 4 was being retailed second-hand on the same forecourt for €55,000." - I don't know what "a similar spec diesel model" of an ID4 is, but I can guarantee that none that were retailing for 58k two years ago has only lost 3k in depreciation in two years.

They then go on to give a list of things, such as instantaneous fires (lol), that will mean they have to sell their EV and buy a diesel, despite seemingly the issue earlier in the piece being deprecation.

There's basically nothing else of note in the article.

As pointed out above, lower prices means more people can buy an EV 2nd hand, and likely means even more people becoming EV owners.

drunkmonkey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121711909#Comment_121711909

The cost of the replacement doesn't matter as they don't want one. His loss is 22/28k.

crl84

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121711896#Comment_121711896

If they are, then they're a bit of a moron, as brand new diesels have similar levels of depreciation. Probably less than an EV bought 2 years ago, but about the same as these cheaper EVs available now. As I said in another thread, if you're worried about depreciation, then don't buy a new car, whatever the fuel source.

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121711847#Comment_121711847

More BS. Adrian Headwrecker has jumped on the same bandwagon.

rob316

Think you are another few years away for mass adoption of EV. Personally if I'm buying a new car tomorrow it will be a diesel.

drunkmonkey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121711987#Comment_121711987

I can see their frustration, I jumed out of the ID family quick, took a hit but glad I didn't hold as lost litreally nothing on the following 2 cars.

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121712012#Comment_121712012

Many did. But those journalists have a facility to reach the public with their article and they are using that to vent their anger at the wrong choices they made or lack of research etc

Imagine 2 major newspapers putting this story out because EV sales dropped by 0.34% compared to last January. I just think it’s laughable.

kanuseeme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121711909#Comment_121711909

I see this pop up a few times recently here,

this is my opinion on it, the 2 year old id4 is worth less than 38k, we all agree the new is worth 45k, there is no way on earth that I now value a 2 year old at 38k, why should I, a new one is only 7k more, I just sign up for 60 payments instead of 48, I get a newer car more warranty, less degradation etc.

So that leaves the guy with a 22k drop, does he agree with my valuation on it, which is whatever the 2 years of depreciation is on a 45k car, or does he keep it. spreading the devaluation out over more years, say 10 years and its worth zero ( its just a thought exercise no need for any of you regulars to get upset) so 6 k a year, my new car I have decided its fantastic and I keep it 10 years ( its just a thought exercise ) 4.5 k a year, the only winner is the guy who buys now.

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121711968#Comment_121711968

I’ve been saying exactly this for months - the people who I know personally on my street who’ve either been Musked, or bought an expensive ID4, both of them working through the ‘known beta test issues’ - they’re not buying another because they don’t want to. Pretty simple.

its very hard to convince someone that the solution to their problem is to buy another of the same thing in order to crystalise a large loss instead of a huge loss

rob316

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121712043#Comment_121712043

That's my same thought, if I'm spending 40-50k on a car it'll be a tried and trusted technology. Diesel is still holding good value

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121712043#Comment_121712043

You get great joy from that statement being “musked”.

Kinda like a repetitive disorder that you mention it in every thread in the forum.

I assume you have the same saying for people that have been “Blumed” or “Zipsed”?

I don’t understand strange the behavior of individuals that hang around sub forums they have no knowledge or interest in. Fine, you don’t want an EV. So what. You don’t have to remind the world every day.

Your “friends”, “neighbors” and “co-Workers” are probably happy with their cars and don’t want to change. How hard is it to accept that 🤷

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121712065#Comment_121712065

Diesel will hold good value until it doesn't. The depreciation is gradual until it falls off a cliff edge, as the demand for 2nd hand diesels will disappear.

We are definitely a good few years before EVs become adopted by the mass market, but when that happens the sizeable cohort of people who would get an EV second hand only for price being too high, will suddenly have plenty of affordable options. On that day, demand for diesel will plummet.

josip

It doesn't matter how you dress it up, the alleged person in the article made a poor decision and bought at the top of the market. The article says that such price corrections are rare but neglect to mention the previously unseen increases in new (EV) car prices 2021-2023. Most were saying prices were nuts and nobody was forced to buy during that time. I don't know what describing him as a senior executive in a major company is trying to achieve. If it's trying to impress, it achieves the opposite. It makes him look stupid.

Also, zero introspection and taking responsibility for his current situation, "..looking back, yeah prices were a bit high and there were warning signs". No, the remainder of his comment is just sour grapes and talk of reverting to diesel is just doubling down on being stupid. If that person is real, he should be very annoyed with Neil Briscoe this evening for how stupid he makes him appear. Hopefully it is an imaginary person in Neil's head, because there's so much identifying information in that article to make the anonymity worthless.

Finally, anyone who trades in after 2 years for new and who has been buying cars for longer than the past 3 years, should be well used to taking a financial hit.

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121711896#Comment_121711896

I'd think the opposite, EVs have had a major price reduction and are now a safer buying proposition than the diesel which might also be getting a price cut in the future.

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121711968#Comment_121711968

So rough end of the story, person buys car for 55k (+5k grant) and is offered 33k after 22 months. That's a 40% depreciation in two years.

Are we expecting all new cars sales to end if they hit 40% depreciation in 2 years. I thought a common rule of thumb was that car's lose between 15% and 20% per year. Person in the story has seen a 22% rate based on the market conditions.

Person has an option to upgrade to a similar spec of car and avoid the loss but doesn't want to for reasons.

Here's an article from the same publication giving market values of just 35% for cars after 3 years.

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/motors/used-values-rising-but-depreciation-still-biggest-cost-1.2687427

drunkmonkey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121712265#Comment_121712265

You're completely ignoring the diesel buyer in the story, then use an article from 8yrs ago to show depreciation rates, that's not what's happened over the last couple of years in Ireland, some people didn't even realise any depreciation.

There's been some massive depreciation in the ev market no matter what way you spin it. Your kinda saying well it's his own fault for not buying another ID, much the way a Tesla owner might talk about their own depreciation, sure isn't a new one cheaper to change into now. Your missing the capital has been eroded.

Hey these are cars though and man maths always wins out so what ever works for you.

PaulRyan97

I think there's a lot of unnecessary panicking here about this minor drop in share YoY.

I'd imagine by the end of Q1 share will have increased up beyond 15-16%. There a couple factors at play here.

The most popular EV, the ID.4 suffered at the hands of VWs ridiculous pricing strategy towards the end of the year. That caused a tank in new orders, forcing them in mid-December to reduce prices across the board. The majority sold in January were pre-facelift models already in stock that hadn't been registered and sold for the cut prices. All new orders made post price cut have yet to begin production. I wouldn't expect them to start coming in until the Summer as Volkswagen is having trouble building enough AP550 motors to supply the ID.4/5/7, Enyaq and Q4.

Tesla have yet to begin delivering the new Highland Model 3 but have been taking orders for it now for at least 2 months. This should be a popular vehicle at its current asking price.

Higher interest rates have made financing much more expensive than it has been over the last few years. Expensive cars took a hit, EVs are predominantly occupying the higher end of the market, so they can be seen to have taken a disproportionate hit. Outside of specific models having sales fluctuations I think this will be the trend that dominates the market this year.

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121712551#Comment_121712551

Capital has always been eroded with new car purchases. Is it really newsworthy to say person loses money after driving a new car for 2 years? When a claim is made that somebody lost 22k in 2 years it's sounds bad, when you put that into perspective of people should expect to lose between 15% and 20% per year, and that instead they've lost 22% per year. Its shows the sensationalism involved.

You are of course correct that we've had an unusual couple of years when it comes to new car's depreciating less, the fact that the market is returning back to normal shouldn't be too much of a shock. I wonder if we'll see articles about the value drop of '24 diesels in '26 when they go through expected levels of depreciation.

There wasn't a diesel buyer in the story, there was an anecdote about a VW diesel being on sale at the same time as the ID.4 purchase which on the lot with a sticker price showing not much change. Are we also going to make it newsworthy that dealers offer lower trade ins than they advertise the car for?

If EV sales are going to stop because new cars lose money, then we should expect to see a stop on all new car sales.

drunkmonkey

It's the rate of depreciation that matters but I do see it slowing as new prices fall and the used stock becomes tempting. You won't have a 22k shock if the price is lower.

Grants and incentives are critical though as we're in the 1st few seconds of the revolution.