2024 Irish EV Sales

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This discussion was created from comments split from: 2023 Irish EV Sales.

josip

Is there a 2024 version of this thread that I've missed? Today's beep beep update will be interesting, but might be a bit skewed towards those manufacturers who already have stock or have had deliveries during January.

There are five 241s in our estate so far and none of them are EVs.

Old diesel

You will probably find a big rush to buy diesels etc "while we are still allowed to".

With people wanting the newest ICE car possible to postpone the move to EV for as long as possible.

creedp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121704171#Comment_121704171

Or People just assessing what's out there and opting to buy their preference. Just because one person thinks its mad to buy a new ICE doesn't make it necessary to come up with some kind of convoluted conspirancy theory to explain why others think differently.

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121704171#Comment_121704171

There's still 11 years to the proposed ban, which, if the current setup doesnt improve, will likely be pushed back anyway.

Old diesel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121704204#Comment_121704204

I suspect the actual assessment of a typical brand new car diesel buyer in 2024 looks like this.....

"If it's not diesel it's totally useless".

Assessment of alternatives is done in less time than it takes to read this post.

A proper assessment means you look at something like a Toyota hybrid and consider how that should be more reliable then most diesels.

Or you consider a PHEV.

Etc.

My original post was intended to be an observation only. People have been buying cars I disagree with since I first got interested in cars 37 years ago now.

So I'm cool with it.....

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121704122#Comment_121704122

Oh dear what cars are they? Looks like those people are underestimating how quick the transition to EVs will be. With big consequences for the second hand value of ICE cars. For once it's a good thing the vast majority of cars in Ireland are bought on PCP so the brunt of the extra depreciation hit will be with the actual owner of the car (not the people in your estate)

creedp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121704317#Comment_121704317

Agree the assessment process is non existent by many so sometimes you need to shrug your shoulders and walk away. 3 friends have replaced their cars in recent weeks. 2 diesels and one phev. The diesels were model specific and no other options even considered while the phev resulted from a slightly more involved process summarised as bored with diesel and wouldn't touch an EV. People are strange....

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121704342#Comment_121704342

RAV4, i20, Scala, a Ford something and a Toyota something else (not a bzx4qr6). I haven't inspected the backs of the cars (yet) to determine fuel type.

Gumbo

I have to say, so far, I’ve seen less 241 cars than any other January in recent memory.

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121704342#Comment_121704342

Interestingly I was talking to an absolute petrol head the other day. Drives motorbikes, goes off to car Rally's across Europe as part of the crew etc.

He was totally anti EV 2 years ago but he even accepts it's inevitable.

There will be a tipped point, but I'd say the secondhand ICE market is safe enough for anybody who buys one this year.

waterwelly

When can we expect some figures to be released?

josip

If I was a betting person I'd go for January figures of:

Petrol 31%

Hybrid 24%

Plug In Petrol Hybrid 10%

Electric 18%

Diesel 17%

AmpMan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121704122#Comment_121704122

I've seen about 10 in my estate.

All EVs , Etron, ID4s mostly

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121704539#Comment_121704539

Hybrid.

Slick marketing and sales pitches making people think it's electric without the hassle.

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121704557#Comment_121704557

Doesn't sound right. That would *anecdotally* suggest EV's are the biggest share of the market.

drunkmonkey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121704664#Comment_121704664

How many are company cars though? That's something we haven't been able to get from the figures in the last few years. Incentices are still in place, if they're not held or increased and taper down as planned over the next couple of years it's going to have an effect on the market again unless new ev prices are possibly lower than buying a petrol or diesel by January 2026. If EV depreciation is still a thing they need to be considerably lower.

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121704896#Comment_121704896

Would you buy a VW Tiguan for €42,125 or an ID.4 for €39,943. I think in a lot of cases comparable model are now approaching price parity, prices are coming back to the 2020 levels and the depreciation levels look pretty standard for the expected age of cars.

I don't see why a given car being a company car or not is relevant, either way it's another EV in the fleet, and will be available on the 2nd hand market in a few years. Fleet sales are a great way to seed the market.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121704985#Comment_121704985

Company cars not as good a measure of consumer sentiment?

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121705009#Comment_121705009

Company car schemes usually have a choice of vehicles, not many people will go from daily driving an EV and switch back to driving a petrol/diesel. Exposure and experience tends to quieten down the fears and uncertainties of something new. It wasn't too long ago that we had people thinking EVs don't work in rural areas, a problem which was somewhat solved by the 1930's rural electrification scheme.

Most people will never buy a brand new car in their life, their market options come from new sales by other people, getting more EVs into the market brand new is the only way to expand the choices and options for the 2nd hand market.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121705060#Comment_121705060

You still pay significantly less BIK on an EV compared to ICE, that is undoubtedly a factor.

drunkmonkey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121704985#Comment_121704985

It's relavant as if incentives aren't kept up those with a company car will switch back to ice from 2026 onwards, my reply was in relation to waterwell comment on "I've seen about 10 in my estate, All EVs , Etron, ID4s most" where he said "Doesn't sound right. That would *anecdotally* suggest EV's are the biggest share of the market"

Have you ever paid BIK, do you know the savings they're are in your take home pay with an EV over ICE, it's a huge factor to switch, and back to my suspicion if the numbers aren't made public I believe they're deliberatley hiding the information to make it seem uptake amoung ordinarly consumers is way higher than it actually is.

drunkmonkey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121705060#Comment_121705060

There's no deniying ICE cars are more pratical than EV's for business users, It's not about fear or uncertanitnes it's purely down to cost and pratictiallity. If the tax payer wasn't subsidising EV's for businesses they would nearly all be driving ICE and most still are. My point is in 2026 when there's little incentive besides a not universilly accepted ideological standpoint people will just swith back the easiest to live with option.

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121705219#Comment_121705219

I don't agree with your opening position. The unknowns of using an EV are massively overblown by certain media sources and quickly go away when a driver gains some experience, we're long past the days of early Leaf's and their 100km motorway range.

Most company cars are not used for regularly trips up and down the country beyond their range. In terms of practicality, I think for a lot of cases there is barely any difference at all, people are finding that cars just turn out to be cars. For those cases with very high daily mileage there are still hybrids and PHEVs are available and will be until at least 2035.

crl84

What were the best selling models for 2023? Is there a graphic with numbers sold somewhere?

e: found this on a press release, but nothing further:

• 5 Top Selling New Electric Vehicles (EVs) Car Brands 2023:
• 1.VOLKSWAGEN, 2.TESLA , 3.HYUNDAI, 4.KIA, 5. MG
• 
  
• 5 Top Selling New Electric Vehicles (EVs) Models 2023: 1.VOLKSWAGEN ID.4, 2. TESLA MODEL Y, 3. SKODA ENYAQ, 4.HYUNDAI IONIQ 5, 5. MG4

Surprised about the Enyaq, haven't seen many on the roads, and certainly seen more Tesla M3s.

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121705166#Comment_121705166

The numbers were never shared for personal purchases by SIMI in the past, why would you believe they are now deliberately hiding numbers that were never shared in the first place.

I guess the only way your argument will be settled is if the government don't change the BIK rules and we see a cliff edge of EV sales in 2026. Who knows we might finally get that drop in sales which people have been predicting since 2017. I'm sure if people cross the fingers tight enough, they can finally see the collapse of the EV market in Ireland, ensuring that we can continue to import foreign fuel and use it to pollute our streets.

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121705373#Comment_121705373

You can check on https://stats.beepbeep.ie/ however the database is currently down for the January update. It's likely to be available sometime this afternoon.

Old diesel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121705219#Comment_121705219

Genuine question....

Whats a typical business user situation in terms of weekly or daily mileages.

Because I'm wondering who actually needs 300 miles range in a day.....

I know some people do 1000 miles a week but that's 200 miles average over a 5 day working week.

https://youtu.be/2vVyHXSN9aA?si=GpsJRMEbwOd7XTVf

josip

I think it's been updated for January https://stats.beepbeep.ie/

yer man!

EV sales increased by 11.84% for January compared to same last year. I’d be interested to know what it will be like for the first full quarter when Tesla offloads the highland and 0%APR Model y

liamog

Interesting numbers, very similar to Jan '23 with only petrol hybrids and PHEVs seeming to pick up most of the switch from Petrol and Diesel.

drunkmonkey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121705389#Comment_121705389

See your using the beep beep numbers to say hey look at the wonderful sales figures, I'm saying that's kinda misinformation as the business sales are not known, we know from the uk it's 1 consumer sale for every 16 business sales. You can argue that's not happening here but without any data to back it up it's only an assumption. Consumer sales could have actually declined in 2023 here.

Not only will you see a cliff edge in 2026 if nothing is done, you'll see a lot of them dumped back onto the consumer market, which may be a good thing for adoption if people actually buy them, they may still be happey enough in their ICE.

There's calls in the UK now to half the vat on new sales to help things along, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/05/electric-car-sales-in-uk-flatline-prompting-calls-for-vat-cut

fits

Disappointing numbers to be honest. I think we are in an adjustment period between early adopters and mass market uptake. Price changes probably increasing uncertainty too.

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121705518#Comment_121705518

It's the only info we have, you're using a gut feeling to say the sky is falling. Do you have any evidence to show that consumer sales have declined?

drunkmonkey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121705428#Comment_121705428

I can't speak for typical but know plenty who have long journeys, a dublin based rep might clock up 700km in a day. 400km in a day does me for most things.

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121705497#Comment_121705497

The MYs due in Feb would have already been in transit when the 0% was announced. So there may not be enough in the shipment to meet any increased demand. Although from the way EVs as an overall percentage of sales are static, and the decrease in petrol/diesel has been picked up by 'hybrids', I don't think any change in EV financing APRs will result in a significant increase in sales.

PaulRyan97

Any reason BMW i4 sales dropped 86%? Issues with deliveries seems the most likely.

PaulRyan97

Worth noting that for some reason all Toyota PHEVs get reported as regular hybrids. In 2022 it was discernable on stats as they used to publish the CO2 band of each car and half of all Rav4s were the Prime model.

Assuming that trend remained unchanged, that along with the Prius means there were an additional 600 PHEVs sold.

PaulRyan97

Wow there's glaring issues here, most of Renault's hybrid car sales have been misreported as petrols.

drunkmonkey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121705532#Comment_121705532

I'm not saying the sky is falling but from experience when you put in an incentive sales go up, take it away and sales go down. This has played out in other countries. The bik incentive is huge here and the closer we get to 2026 there's less of an incentive for a business to buy one. We've also had consumer incentives last year boosting sales.

I'm not wishing for this to happen but the government need a 5yr or more plan so people know what they're getting into. No incentive and no certainty isn't a good mix.

drunkmonkey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121705580#Comment_121705580

I don't think there was many for sale new, I enquired some time last year and was told I could have the one in the forecourt or there's 2 more due in but that's it for the year. Not sure if it was a sales tactic.

They should be a good seller so I'm inclined to believe the sales guy.

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121705580#Comment_121705580

They are all far too expensive for what they are: an ICE car that had EV bits shoved in. Don't get me wrong, I like them. I would have quite possibly bought one myself (this time last year) had they made the entry level under €60k on the road, so the €5k subsidy would have gone off that too

This applies to the i5 too, the cheapest Paddy spec version is €90k which is insane. Not that long ago you could get an entry level 5-series for half that. A stinky rattly diesel, but still.

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121705727#Comment_121705727

With the current data available to us it's unknowable what the impact of BIK changes could be until 2026. We've two more budgets to get through before then and will likely have a new government. We should see more models available by then, and battery prices appear to be heading down rather than up.

Cost parity was predicted by 2025 and we seem to be on track for that. I think it's a little early to presume that all EVs are company purchases instead of private ones, and even if it is the case, it's still seeding the 2nd hand market where the majority of car buyers make their purchases.

I don't particularly care who is buying the cars on our streets, I only care that they are not polluting them and that we keep the money used for energy imports in our local economy instead.

unkel

I think focussing on cost parity is irrelevant and nothing but a distraction. It's total cost of ownership that matters and new EVs are already far cheaper than equivalent ICE in many cases, even if you remove the EV grant. Unless you do way below average annual mileage.

drunkmonkey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121705822#Comment_121705822

I'm not saying it's all business buying them, I'd say they're representing maybe 20 or 30% of new EV sales. I'd just like to see the breakdown over time.

With all that's going on in the country we're seeing more pollution and not less, we've still to add another 1 million to the population over the next 10yrs or so, the environmental impact doesn't bother me as no matter what I do it'll have little or no consequence in the short to medium term due to government policy.

mailforkev

All totally anecdotal but I’ve spotted plenty of 241s on the roads around my neck of the woods in suburban Dublin.

Majority of new motors in my estate over the last couple of years have been electric, ranging from MG4 to big eTron and plenty in between. Surprisingly no new Teslas or VWs though.

My parents live 5 mins away and you can’t move on their road without bumping into an ID.3/4/5/Enyaq, and their newest neighbours have two Teslas.

It’s turned to EV quite quickly, I didn’t think they would catch on so rapidly a couple years ago when I got my first one.

drunkmonkey

Big City versus Country division there. Think I've the only phev on the road and no EV's.

SeanaciousD

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121705437#Comment_121705437

Some interesting stats there:

• Toyota's marketing department deserve their pay packets for seemingly convincing everyone that their petrol cars are EV "self-charging hybrids"
• BYD have had a strong start, beating the likes of MG and Cupra despite all of their pre-orders not even being filled yet. Seal outsold both BMW's 3 and 5 series. Let's see if it keeps up.
• Tesla did surprisingly poorly, people waiting for the Highland M3? Or the Irish public put off by the excess minimalism? The sudden 0% APR offer now makes a lot more sense.
• Mercedes failed to sell an single EQC. A car they would expect to sell a reasonable amount of. Oh dear 😂

mailforkev

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121706036#Comment_121706036

Yeah, was always likely to be the case until more options became available.

I always judge attitudes to change based on how few or many Toyotas are around an area. When the Toyota crowd buy in to EVs then it’s sorted. A lot of them around here have migrated to Kia and Hyundai EVs.

sk8board

so EV market share was actually down a little year on year?

that includes 66 Tesla V 1 last year, includes all the new models such as BYD too.

includes all the Jan company cars.

EVs are generally cheaper versus last year

skin it whatever way you want lads, I’m all for EVs but that’s pretty poor; awful really.

anecdotally we’ve all heard about EVs being a harder sell recently, and that’s now a fact.

djan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121705428#Comment_121705428

EV become problematic in business travel which requires high speed motorways. On those even the long rave EVs will struggle with 350km which is easily done in a day. The downtime associated with charging which at fast chargers is often more expensive than diesel can be costly. Furthermore, diesel is the only one which can be written off...