Russia - threadbanned users in OP

CelticRambler · 04-01-2024 01:54PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569067#Comment_121569067

Neither side has made any major progress? We keep hearing this, and have been hearing it for months (frequently accompanied by the phrase "failed/stalled counteroffensive") ... and yet that point refers only to the movement of the line of conflict on the ground.

Anyone who's wandered through the north of France will surely have seen the panels marking the position of the front line in WW1 and noticed how little it moved over the course of several years - but the war wasn't being fought and won there.

In 2023, Ukraine drove the Black Sea fleet out of Crimea, and have make the Black Sea sufficiently treacherous that the same Black Sea Fleet generally stays out of it. Similarly, they have made the skies over Donbas, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Crimea sufficiently dangerous that helicopters rarely visit the front line regions any more, and their jets are increasingly wary of taking to the air.

Those two achievements alone are "major progress" for Ukraine, and there is nothing comparable for the Russians to brag about.

Jinglejangle69 · 04-01-2024 02:00PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569885#Comment_121569885

FFS just give Ukraine what they need to finish these rats off altogether.

Gatling · 04-01-2024 02:11PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569113#Comment_121569113

But they are press ganging people into service theres plenty of videos showing Ukrainian men being grabbed on the streets and taking away to be conscripted,

glen123 · 04-01-2024 02:13PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569553#Comment_121569553

...and this somehow makes me less Ukrainian and less knowledgeable than you, for example, about what goes on in the country where, as I mentioned, all my family and friends and their kids still live? Unlike you, I don't watch and read Russian propaganda to know what exactly they are promoting there these days. Maybe you should switch to Ukrainian news instead too for a change?

Or are you ashamed to come across this? After all it's the creation of our "hero" and his besties.

Kvartal 95 making disgusting jokes about people of Skadovsk (Kherson), currently under occupation, during their New Years performance. One of the participants visited Crimea at least 3 times since its occupation (big no-no but ...what's another y....visit). Some MPs are now calling for them to volunteer to the frontlines after their wonderful performance (won't happen, of course). Poor sods even had to cancel their gig at Bukovel (our top ski resort)...and one would think what...ski resort..gigs...during the war??

https://eng.obozrevatel.com/section-entertainment/news-11-tv-channel-apologizes-for-the-displaced-woman-from-skadovsk-the-scandalous-episode-of-kvartal-95-will-be-cut-03-01-2024.html

Poor mayor of Skadovsk was so disgusted, he ended up quoting Petlura's "We are not so afraid of Moscow lice, we are afraid of Ukrainian nits."

Let's see how Zelenky's strong hand is going to pack them all up, drive them to Avdiivka and leave them all there as volunteers :)

drop table Users · 04-01-2024 02:21PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121570170#Comment_121570170

Way to not read the article about press ganging foreigners in Russia and also go off on a tangent and to then make claims without any evidence

Gatling · 04-01-2024 02:54PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121570223#Comment_121570223

Tangent your grasp of thing seems very much limited

drop table Users · 04-01-2024 03:13PM

More reality with sources on foreigners in Russia

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1742904514926064100?s=20

Gatling · 04-01-2024 03:18PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121570536#Comment_121570536

Fast track citizenship..

Nothing new there the law was proposed pre Ukraine invasion

drop table Users · 04-01-2024 03:29PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121570567#Comment_121570567

And now signed by your leader for life, here is your chance to get that coveted Russian citizenship and show off your military expertise

Gatling · 04-01-2024 03:42PM

This isn't a great sign,Ive seen other reports from Ukrainian unit's saying that they ran out of mortars and 40mm grenades for their MGLs

https://twitter.com/Harri_Est/status/1742663195758834078?s=20

johnnyskeleton · 04-01-2024 04:46PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121568497#Comment_121568497

The U.S. may not but the E.U. certainly do. Not to the point where Russia collapses chaotically or uses weapons of mass destruction, but the majority of E.U. Member States want to see the Russian army routed from all Ukrainian territory.

You keep mentioning the artillery deliveries as though it is the only weapon that is being used or the only help that the E.U. can provide, when it is not. You speak about it as though it was a broken promise - the EU promised 1m shells within a year from March, 2023, they have delivered almost 500k and they still have some time before March to make it up. But in any event it is not because they are dragging their feet or unwilling to provide shells, the problem is that you can't just magic up a millions shells out of nowhere, nor can you give away your entire stocks that will be needed to train your own troops and to be used in the event that Russia attacks an E.U. Member State.

Your dismissive attitude towards 2,500 armored vehicles is striking. Likewise with the jets.

Are the U.S. and E.U. being cautious and conservative about assisting Ukraine? Absolutely yes. They don't want it to escalate into a full scale NATO v Russia war and they don't want to deplete their own stocks or run the risk that Russia will destroy or capture their most sophisticated equipment. But the E.U. countries at least would like to see nothing more than a Ukrainian victory as soon as possible. It's just that it isn't possible to win a war overnight.

As to what is the plan, well in many ways there is no plan. The US and EU didn't start this war. Their actions have been entirely reactive throughout. A more relevant question is what are the next steps for the US and EU, and the answer to that will hopefully be revealed in the next couple of weeks.

The U.S. is not going to cut all aid to Ukraine, but they are probably not going to give the 60bn that Biden would like them to give. The U.S. has a massive national debt and the Republicans are gaining ground in arguing that they shouldn't be giving out so much money in foreign aid (even though it is in their long term strategic interests that Russia not take over Ukraine and that the money is often reinvested in the US industry). The figure they eventually give will, IMO, be somewhere in the region of 20-40bn. I would hope that it will be towards the upper end of that range.

As for the E.U. Member States, well that's a more straightforward issue. They can't use the E.U. or N.A.T.O. to coordinate aid to Ukraine, so they are going to have to find a way to do so without involving Hungary. This will take longer as it requires the national parliaments to get there, but they will. So I wouldn't be pessimistic on that front.

As to how 2024 will play out, it is very hard to say. I suspect that the period between now and March will be very intense but if the Russians keep attacking as they are they will suffer huge casualties and deplete their weapons. After the election, it is unclear if Russia will engage in mass mobilisation or not. It is also not clear whether they can realistically mass mobilise and achieve any real effects, but you can be pretty sure that if they do so the EU and US won't be far behind in increasing support for them.

johnnyskeleton · 04-01-2024 04:57PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121568874#Comment_121568874

The logic of Ukraine not striking inside Russia in 2022 was that they didn't want to escalate and they didn't have the capacity given that they weren't allowed to use aided weapons to strike Russia proper. 2023 showed us that Ukraine can hit military targets in Russia, but it is a risky strategy if they target civilians as this could play badly amongst the countries providing aid to them.

The idea that Russia retaliates 100 fold isn't really accurate I'm afraid. Russia are intent on striking civilian targets across Ukraine regardless of what the Ukrainians do. They didn't decide on a whim to fire over 200 missiles in the last week - that was planned in advance. The fact that Ukrain struck Belogord is an excuse for them to claim that it is retaliation, but in reality it is not.

If Russia really had additional, non-nuclear and politically acceptable capacity to damage Ukraine, they would have done so by now. And the last year has shown that they can strike inside Russia without causing the Russians to take drastic measures.

saabsaab · 04-01-2024 05:01PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121571195#Comment_121571195

I presume you mean military targets only?

drop table Users · 04-01-2024 05:04PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121571195#Comment_121571195

It turned out in end that it was Russian anti air that “struck Belgorod” and another example of a bomb being dropped on this town by … Russians themselves

Gatling · 04-01-2024 05:08PM

@johnnyskeleton You speak about it as though it was a broken promise - the EU promised 1m shells within a year from March, 2023, they have delivered almost 500k and they still have some time before March to make it up.

They already said that they failed and wouldn't be able to deliver on the promised as I said they would,they haven't delivered 500,000 either in September/October they were looking at 300,000 shells delivered in 8 months,we also know that even if they promised 20bn ,90% of that stays in America going to America jobs supporting American programmes not Ukrainian,for instance there was discussion of another patriot system and I believe 100+ missles for it ,but that and they won't be delivered before 2027 ,the EU wants Russia out of Ukraine but they more than likely want Russia sitting at the table Russia can provide big opportunities to the EU and they don't want a broken up and highly unstable groups on European borders ,

While artillery isn't the only weapon system in Ukraine,it's the the main tool for keeping large numbers of men and vehicles at bay ,if they are suffering shortages as coming from Ukrainian accounts that suggests that they are going to end in a precarious position in the next few months,

johnnyskeleton · 04-01-2024 05:27PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121571243#Comment_121571243

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-countries-order-only-60000-shells-ukraine-via-new-scheme-sources-2023-12-06/

Together, those schemes have yielded some 480,000 munitions, according to the EU - less than half of the target, with about four months to go.

drop table Users · 04-01-2024 05:29PM

It’s interesting how some (ahem) are demanding detailed war plans and exact commitments

While ignoring that the Russian side they cheer for still hasn’t produced war plans or coherent justifications several Years into the Three Day war they started

And continue to make wild claims on thread without offering a shred of evidence to backup said claims

Vicxas · 04-01-2024 05:31PM

Does the Ukraine have the capacity to make their own shells? Would they even bother if it would constantly be targeted

Manic Moran · 04-01-2024 05:31PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569680#Comment_121569680

Odd. I've been in S3/G3 positions long enough to know how much of the planning is done by enlisted vs officers, and I can't say I agree with your assessment which is supported by....?

I would also be curious to hear why you think that the Soviets, Chinese and Albanians were wrong when they decided to revert back to a rank structure which included officers and enlisted. Surely after having actually tried going the other way, they would be best placed to make the determination from practical experience as to just how needed the positions are for effective operations?

Gatling · 04-01-2024 05:34PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121571346#Comment_121571346

You haven't been able to explain anything so far including how a respected military officer and historian is wrong.

Gatling · 04-01-2024 05:35PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121571348#Comment_121571348

They recently set up new production lines for western artillery shells ,but capacity and protection is the biggest issue,they are blowing through a serious amount of artillery per week,much more than they or the EU can realistically produce in short periods

drop table Users · 04-01-2024 05:46PM

Meanwhile in the land of endless manpower and equipment

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-purchasing-iran-missiles-ukraine-war/32759893.html

zv2 · 04-01-2024 05:48PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121571348#Comment_121571348

The have and are developing some capacity.

rogber · 04-01-2024 06:28PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569816#Comment_121569816

Dictators have survived a lot longer than Putin in countries much poorer as well. We'd all love to see him fall but he's been there nigh on 20 years already and I wouldn't be surprised to see him cling on for quite a few years more

rogber · 04-01-2024 06:31PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569113#Comment_121569113

I wasn't even responding to that, you're twisting things around

zv2 · 04-01-2024 06:43PM

???

drop table Users · 04-01-2024 08:11PM

Russia is now in violation of UN sanctions on North Korea

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/01/04/russia-north-korean-missiles-ukraine/

Gatling · 04-01-2024 08:19PM

Some deliveries from Berlin

1x Skynex air defense system

- 10x Marder 1A3 IFV

- 2x Hensoldt TRML-4D air surveillance radar units

- Undisclosed number of IRIS-T SLM Missiles

- Undisclosed number of Leopard 2 ammunition

9000 artillery shells.

More trucks

305 Haenel MK 556 rifles aka H&K 416...

The skynex is probably the most interesting delivery it's an anti aircraft gun geared towards which can be ground or truck based depending what they delivered pretty new system I previously posted about on here

saabsaab · 04-01-2024 08:21PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121572061#Comment_121572061

Not really a surprise. I wonder are they any better than their shells?

AbusesToilets · 04-01-2024 08:22PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121571349#Comment_121571349

I've been in similar situations, and the level of planning tends to be very broad strokes. Anything pertaining to actual operations being handled on the lower level. Fires, logistical support, air coordination, all regulary the remit of enlisted or contractors. There's no special sauce involved that necessities an officer corps, it doesn't take OCS to send emails or populate trackers.

A system based on meritocracy, competence and experience would be far preferable to one that pushes individuals into positions of authority based on nothing more than a college degree. It's telling that the most capable sof units are NCO driven and largely free from officers.

Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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