Russia - threadbanned users in OP

drop table Users

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121573681#Comment_121573681

The US always had an isolationist side BUT one party actively wanting to dismantle the republic and install a dictator for life is new, which has repercussions far outside US and is discussed in other threads

But time and time again something would happen that would highlight to Americans that head in sand stance doesn’t protect em (seem some but not all EU countries have realised this too now) and they go bananas

Keep in mind that while Putin very much would like Trump back in power the Chinese very much would not and would be doing their own meddling and of course a lot of money now pouring into Hailey who is a classic neocon, but anyways I don’t want risking moving the thread off topic tho relevant to this war

RedXIV

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121572776#Comment_121572776

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121573009#Comment_121573009

I wonder if this is capitalism at work rather than pure humanitarian support to a neighboring country? As @Gatling has pointed out, every time there is a package of X billion promised by the states, approx 80-90% of it remains in the nation as labour costs etc. War is big business and Rheinmetall is arguably best placed to establish itself as a new contender if military spending continues in this vein for the next few years. Even in Ireland, people are talking more about Defence budgets in the last few years, than they have in the last few decades prior. The Swiss industry has proven to have too many legal stipulations, so a strong available source in Europe could be a way for Germany to start pulling more power in the EU bloc back towards them, in a purely financial sense.

Either way, a welcome development and great to see additional systems being delivered

CelticRambler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121573826#Comment_121573826

Watching the change of attitude of the German government (and the GOP-ian reaction of Germany's muscovite stooges) I've also been wondering if those Germans with a good sense of capitalism know that the very best investment they can make now is literal boots on the ground in Ukraine. I suspect they've realised that they can easily switch their now-embargoed dealings with Russia to the same-but-different Novorossiya/Ukraine.

If that's the case, then Putin should realise that he's in a hell of a lot more trouble than his generals are (not?) telling him: it would suggest that decisions have already been made in the shadows of the corridors of power that Ukraine will be joining the EU and will be joining NATO, and no washed out KGB agent is going to stop it now.

zv2

Just sayin...

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1743196635843174574

silverharp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121573980#Comment_121573980

Governments and policy can change depending on public opinion, the US might be able to make the printing presses go whrrrr, not so much in the EU. A lot of people are going to balk at an opened obligation like this. Its not like the EU is on a financial roll , I dont think it would take much to shift public opinion when it comes to paying a price.

Mr. CooL ICE

If true, then holy crap

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121571429#Comment_121571429

And I guess that since Iran, China, N Korea et al, are supplying these weapons, they are getting paid for them (and they are not exactly cheap, and none of the A/M Countries are notable for their charitable endeavor's) Putin's piggy bank is running low at this point, and at some stage this arms supply will dry up too.

RoyalCelt

It's not true

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121574143#Comment_121574143

The situation for Europe here is very different to the US. What is the potential cost to Europe/the EU of Ukraine being turned into a failed state, destroyed or even occupied by Russia I wonder? No idea how to calculate that one, maybe you do?

What is the cost to Europe if we have a situation where Putin believes he has gained far more evidence the will won't be there to oppose him if or when he decides to gamble on stability of NATO and the value of US promises to members in coming years?

Yes, a low likelyhood event, but one with human and material costs for Europe that would be staggering. Waging war on your own terrirtory is very bad (see Ukraine), no matter how it turns out in the end, and will make the cost of aid given to Ukraine now (+ costs of rebuilding the EU members militaries etc. to Cold War levels) look miniscule.

silverharp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121574547#Comment_121574547

If you are implying Putin would attack a NATO country, I dont see it. Its really down to what is negotiated and agreed for "west Ukraine"

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121573816#Comment_121573816

So that's another no you can't ,.

So you cannot counter anything he's said typical low level account stuff

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121574690#Comment_121574690

Not directly as in tanks crossing the border. However a few cables/pipelines mysterious blowing up or being cut. A spate of refugees pushed to the EU borders, hacking state utilities, maybe a few missiles over a NATO country or downing an airliner etc.. there's plenty of ways to indirectly attack countries and cause instability with pretty much zero repercussions.

CelticRambler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121574547#Comment_121574547

This is where I think there's a shift in the German attitude. It looks to me like the serious players in the German economy have moved beyond the question of "what's the cost of having Ukraine as a failed state?" to "how much profit can we make in having Ukraine as a successful European state?"

This is not something that particularly concerns the USA, so they have no reason to make it happen any faster than might be the "natural" course of events. But if Big Business in Germany (and other parts of the EU) has decided that it is to Europe's advantage to have access to Ukraine's natural, agricultura and human resources, over and above any inconvenience of pissing off the Russians, then Europe still has the clout to make that happen.

With memories of the Covid disruption to Asian supply chains on the one side, and the threat of Trumpian isolationism on the other side, this is a very good time for Europe to invest in "local" projects. Sure, there's money to be made in producing and selling arms to armies of varying colours, but there's a hell of a lot more money to be made in re-building a country and an economy like Ukraine.

If that decision has been made, private capital will make it happen faster than any amount of Congress-dependent drip-fed aid packages.

silverharp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121574776#Comment_121574776

the biggest damage long term to Europe is that Germany etc. cant buy energy from Russia or sell all that well crafted German automobiles and other tech to the Russians. The EU has gone from having a successful trading partner to possibly inheriting a rump basket case of a state. The only countries trousering it are the US and China.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121573752#Comment_121573752

Thats an interesting take,,,Russia wants Trump, but the Chinese don't.... fun times ahead !! 😂

drop table Users

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121574808#Comment_121574808

Oh please Ireland trades more with rest of EU than Russia did

Time to inject some reality

Russian imports from EU are possibly larger than above as they launder products via Stans

The only loser here is Putin destroying his gas exports by trying and failing to freeze Europe and now China and India are paying a fraction of the price for their gas and oil

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121574690#Comment_121574690

Putin has been attacking the West, the US, Australia, in fact anyone or Country he deems an "enemy" for many years ( inc NATO, actually especially NATO) . Not openly though, all deniable stuff. Massive hacking operations worldwide, using submarines to map undersea communications and oil / gas pipes, (and possibly planting remote controlled explosives on them) pumping cash into radical groups to de-stabilize democratic Countries, mass propaganda to interfere wilt elections. It's a long list of possibilities, and Putin ticks all the boxes. He's the original bad apple in the box that rots the rest of them.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121574788#Comment_121574788

I think your cynicism is in poor taste to be honest. I kind of doubt any resources Ukraine has that might be exploited post war can offset cost (to Germany/EU) of aiding Ukraine now (incl. shifting their energy use away from Russian fossil fuels much more rapidly than intended) and rearming.

It's been clear (to "normal" politicians in Germany and in the other EU countries) for well over a year that the old relationship with Russia is dead and previous policy was a total failure. They tried economic engagement, and Russia went to war anyway. There is also a distinctly genocidal character to this war after Putin's dream of decapitating the govt. of Ukraine failed.

All they can do now is cut their ties with Russia, aid Ukraine as much as possible, and rearm to face a new security reality in Europe. However they are market economies and democracies, and neither the policy change or effect of it is going to be instant. I mean look at how long it can take to change things in this country, even when the politicians/leaders finally understand the policies they had were wrong and are harming them (as well as the country) and they are on the clock and need to do something (!).

Increasing levels of German military support to Ukraine we are seeing that you commented on are just the working through of this process (that started a long time ago).

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121574690#Comment_121574690

I don't see it now.

I do see probability of a Russian test of NATO increasing in a situation where you have (post the collapse of US/EU will to support Ukraine + this resulting in some kind of Russian "success" there, I suppose size of this success determines the danger level...):

• Team MAGA running USA (into the ground)
• EU hamstrung, members at each others throats (i.e. dumbfuck far right governments in most countries or even just a few key ones) and
• Key EU member states (and UK I suppose) have also failed to rearm at all (arguments of what-a-bout the budget, what-a-bout spending it on better things than stuff to kill people and blow things up win the day).

So a fair few stars probably have to align for it, as said a low likelyhood event with a very high cost. Safer to support Ukraine and rearm imo.

scottser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121574813#Comment_121574813

The US and China are locked in an endgame for the supply of superconductors, which are currently produced in Taiwan. Whether the next US president is Democrat or Republican, the American stance won't change.

drop table Users

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121575242#Comment_121575242

Biden at least has somewhat softened the anti China rhetoric (and conversely China toned down alot of the rhetoric too) and there were several meetings where the end result are both being frenemies of sorts “competing”

Trump is clearly the worst of two outcomes for China (and US) on so many levels

anyways speaking of elections

Putin approves list of who can run against him

https://www.euronews.com/2024/01/05/russian-authorities-approve-two-candidates-to-stand-against-putin-in-march-election

swiwi_

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121574088#Comment_121574088

You post too much stuff in this thread without checking sources. IMHO. It might be true but most probably isn’t.

Markcheese

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121574690#Comment_121574690

What do you think he's been doing for the last 10 or more years , assasinations , "accidents", buying politicans and radicals , left and right , destabilizing states, sure its a long game, but you wait for the opportunity,

2014 crimea and donbass ,was decades of work leading to an opportunity,

oh but ukraine has a security pact with uk and US,and their neutral , - fat lot of good that did them ,

zv2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121576236#Comment_121576236

I don't agree. I'm pointing out the fact that the rumor is out there and rumor is important in these matters.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121576245#Comment_121576245

But he's not going to Chance a NATO state,

There is one of two weak links in the alliance but the moment Russian forces Cross into NATO territory they will be wiped out in a few days, they don't have either the man power or logistics to attempt it now , even worse they have no air superiority....

farmerval

Gerasimov killed in a Ukrainian airstrike currently rumoured on Youtube.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121576803#Comment_121576803

Been rumoured since last night still no confirmation from any source we've seen this happen 3/4 times previously where it's been claimed a particular Russian was killed only to turn out to be a false claim

nacho libre

No doubt Russia will release an undated photo or video of him to quell the rumours :)

Like the last time... its huge news if Ukraine did kill him. Very embarrassing for the Russians. You'd never see it happen to his equivalent in the west .

Say my name

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121576882#Comment_121576882

There's massive bounties available to Russians if they inform the Ukrainian military of gatherings of troops or high ranking officials.

It's wait and see.

Deregos.

An 83 year old Russian lady is not afraid to give her honest, angry opinion about Putin and the upcoming election.

https://youtu.be/h_LMdoCuSRM?si=POoHpLxB6aHrSL_v