Russia - threadbanned users in OP

drop table Users

More reality with sources on foreigners in Russia

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1742904514926064100?s=20

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121570536#Comment_121570536

Fast track citizenship..

Nothing new there the law was proposed pre Ukraine invasion

drop table Users

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121570567#Comment_121570567

And now signed by your leader for life, here is your chance to get that coveted Russian citizenship and show off your military expertise

Gatling

This isn't a great sign,Ive seen other reports from Ukrainian unit's saying that they ran out of mortars and 40mm grenades for their MGLs

https://twitter.com/Harri_Est/status/1742663195758834078?s=20

johnnyskeleton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121568497#Comment_121568497

The U.S. may not but the E.U. certainly do. Not to the point where Russia collapses chaotically or uses weapons of mass destruction, but the majority of E.U. Member States want to see the Russian army routed from all Ukrainian territory.

You keep mentioning the artillery deliveries as though it is the only weapon that is being used or the only help that the E.U. can provide, when it is not. You speak about it as though it was a broken promise - the EU promised 1m shells within a year from March, 2023, they have delivered almost 500k and they still have some time before March to make it up. But in any event it is not because they are dragging their feet or unwilling to provide shells, the problem is that you can't just magic up a millions shells out of nowhere, nor can you give away your entire stocks that will be needed to train your own troops and to be used in the event that Russia attacks an E.U. Member State.

Your dismissive attitude towards 2,500 armored vehicles is striking. Likewise with the jets.

Are the U.S. and E.U. being cautious and conservative about assisting Ukraine? Absolutely yes. They don't want it to escalate into a full scale NATO v Russia war and they don't want to deplete their own stocks or run the risk that Russia will destroy or capture their most sophisticated equipment. But the E.U. countries at least would like to see nothing more than a Ukrainian victory as soon as possible. It's just that it isn't possible to win a war overnight.

As to what is the plan, well in many ways there is no plan. The US and EU didn't start this war. Their actions have been entirely reactive throughout. A more relevant question is what are the next steps for the US and EU, and the answer to that will hopefully be revealed in the next couple of weeks.

The U.S. is not going to cut all aid to Ukraine, but they are probably not going to give the 60bn that Biden would like them to give. The U.S. has a massive national debt and the Republicans are gaining ground in arguing that they shouldn't be giving out so much money in foreign aid (even though it is in their long term strategic interests that Russia not take over Ukraine and that the money is often reinvested in the US industry). The figure they eventually give will, IMO, be somewhere in the region of 20-40bn. I would hope that it will be towards the upper end of that range.

As for the E.U. Member States, well that's a more straightforward issue. They can't use the E.U. or N.A.T.O. to coordinate aid to Ukraine, so they are going to have to find a way to do so without involving Hungary. This will take longer as it requires the national parliaments to get there, but they will. So I wouldn't be pessimistic on that front.

As to how 2024 will play out, it is very hard to say. I suspect that the period between now and March will be very intense but if the Russians keep attacking as they are they will suffer huge casualties and deplete their weapons. After the election, it is unclear if Russia will engage in mass mobilisation or not. It is also not clear whether they can realistically mass mobilise and achieve any real effects, but you can be pretty sure that if they do so the EU and US won't be far behind in increasing support for them.

johnnyskeleton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121568874#Comment_121568874

The logic of Ukraine not striking inside Russia in 2022 was that they didn't want to escalate and they didn't have the capacity given that they weren't allowed to use aided weapons to strike Russia proper. 2023 showed us that Ukraine can hit military targets in Russia, but it is a risky strategy if they target civilians as this could play badly amongst the countries providing aid to them.

The idea that Russia retaliates 100 fold isn't really accurate I'm afraid. Russia are intent on striking civilian targets across Ukraine regardless of what the Ukrainians do. They didn't decide on a whim to fire over 200 missiles in the last week - that was planned in advance. The fact that Ukrain struck Belogord is an excuse for them to claim that it is retaliation, but in reality it is not.

If Russia really had additional, non-nuclear and politically acceptable capacity to damage Ukraine, they would have done so by now. And the last year has shown that they can strike inside Russia without causing the Russians to take drastic measures.

saabsaab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121571195#Comment_121571195

I presume you mean military targets only?

drop table Users

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121571195#Comment_121571195

It turned out in end that it was Russian anti air that “struck Belgorod” and another example of a bomb being dropped on this town by … Russians themselves

Gatling

@johnnyskeleton You speak about it as though it was a broken promise - the EU promised 1m shells within a year from March, 2023, they have delivered almost 500k and they still have some time before March to make it up.

They already said that they failed and wouldn't be able to deliver on the promised as I said they would,they haven't delivered 500,000 either in September/October they were looking at 300,000 shells delivered in 8 months,we also know that even if they promised 20bn ,90% of that stays in America going to America jobs supporting American programmes not Ukrainian,for instance there was discussion of another patriot system and I believe 100+ missles for it ,but that and they won't be delivered before 2027 ,the EU wants Russia out of Ukraine but they more than likely want Russia sitting at the table Russia can provide big opportunities to the EU and they don't want a broken up and highly unstable groups on European borders ,

While artillery isn't the only weapon system in Ukraine,it's the the main tool for keeping large numbers of men and vehicles at bay ,if they are suffering shortages as coming from Ukrainian accounts that suggests that they are going to end in a precarious position in the next few months,

johnnyskeleton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121571243#Comment_121571243

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-countries-order-only-60000-shells-ukraine-via-new-scheme-sources-2023-12-06/

Together, those schemes have yielded some 480,000 munitions, according to the EU - less than half of the target, with about four months to go.

drop table Users

It’s interesting how some (ahem) are demanding detailed war plans and exact commitments

While ignoring that the Russian side they cheer for still hasn’t produced war plans or coherent justifications several Years into the Three Day war they started

And continue to make wild claims on thread without offering a shred of evidence to backup said claims

Vicxas

Does the Ukraine have the capacity to make their own shells? Would they even bother if it would constantly be targeted

Manic Moran

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569680#Comment_121569680

Odd. I've been in S3/G3 positions long enough to know how much of the planning is done by enlisted vs officers, and I can't say I agree with your assessment which is supported by....?

I would also be curious to hear why you think that the Soviets, Chinese and Albanians were wrong when they decided to revert back to a rank structure which included officers and enlisted. Surely after having actually tried going the other way, they would be best placed to make the determination from practical experience as to just how needed the positions are for effective operations?

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121571346#Comment_121571346

You haven't been able to explain anything so far including how a respected military officer and historian is wrong.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121571348#Comment_121571348

They recently set up new production lines for western artillery shells ,but capacity and protection is the biggest issue,they are blowing through a serious amount of artillery per week,much more than they or the EU can realistically produce in short periods

drop table Users

Meanwhile in the land of endless manpower and equipment

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-purchasing-iran-missiles-ukraine-war/32759893.html

zv2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121571348#Comment_121571348

The have and are developing some capacity.

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569816#Comment_121569816

Dictators have survived a lot longer than Putin in countries much poorer as well. We'd all love to see him fall but he's been there nigh on 20 years already and I wouldn't be surprised to see him cling on for quite a few years more

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569113#Comment_121569113

I wasn't even responding to that, you're twisting things around

zv2

???

drop table Users

Russia is now in violation of UN sanctions on North Korea

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/01/04/russia-north-korean-missiles-ukraine/

Gatling

Some deliveries from Berlin

1x Skynex air defense system

- 10x Marder 1A3 IFV

- 2x Hensoldt TRML-4D air surveillance radar units

- Undisclosed number of IRIS-T SLM Missiles

- Undisclosed number of Leopard 2 ammunition

9000 artillery shells.

More trucks

305 Haenel MK 556 rifles aka H&K 416...

The skynex is probably the most interesting delivery it's an anti aircraft gun geared towards which can be ground or truck based depending what they delivered pretty new system I previously posted about on here

saabsaab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121572061#Comment_121572061

Not really a surprise. I wonder are they any better than their shells?

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121571349#Comment_121571349

I've been in similar situations, and the level of planning tends to be very broad strokes. Anything pertaining to actual operations being handled on the lower level. Fires, logistical support, air coordination, all regulary the remit of enlisted or contractors. There's no special sauce involved that necessities an officer corps, it doesn't take OCS to send emails or populate trackers.

A system based on meritocracy, competence and experience would be far preferable to one that pushes individuals into positions of authority based on nothing more than a college degree. It's telling that the most capable sof units are NCO driven and largely free from officers.

Manic Moran

"Very broad strokes"?

Mate, unless your similar situation involves something like a division or corps level operation against an intelligent adversary in a rapidly moving 24/7 environment, I submit you are making unfounded assumptions. If you think populating trackers is what the plans cell does, for example, you have absolutely no conception of what goes on in a military HQ and your statements have zero credibility.

I fully accept that small scale units can operate without officers. Assignments there, however, are learning experiences to give a grounding for when the officers move up to higher level. The meat and potatoes of officer work is at field grade, not line units.

I note you have also not addressed the question of why countries which have attempted to abandon ranks have reversed course after experience.

thomil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121572095#Comment_121572095

If anyone's looking for the source of that, here it is:

https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/news/military-support-ukraine-2054992

What I find interesting is that Germany has also increased its commitment for IRIS-T SLM systems from five to nine, and also promised another Skynex system in addition to the one that was delivered. While there's certainly an argument to be made that the pace of deliveries is to slow, the fact that Germany keeps sending top-of-the-line equipment to Ukraine is something that I wasn't expecting from Berlin.

It's also worth pointing out that, according to Jane's, the Skynex system delivered to Ukraine apparently consists of four truck-mounted gun systems, a command post and a radar, so a pretty potent package:

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/rheinmetall-to-supply-ukraine-with-skynex-after-confirming-qatar-delivery#:~:text=Rheinmetall%20to%20supply%20Ukraine%20with%20Skynex%20after%20confirming%20Qatar%20delivery,-by%20Nicholas%20Fiorenza&text=Rheinmetall%20will%20supply%20Ukraine%20with%20Skynex%20short%2D%20and%20very%20short,December%2C%20citing%20German%20government%20officials.

Gatling

The 35 mm Oerlikon cannons have been around for decades as anti aircraft gun system, the latest skynex version was designed for the German Navy ships , but can be mounted to trucks or on semi permanent ground installations,

Rheinmetall is making serious sales pitch over the last 12 months with there efforts in Ukraine and elsewhere

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121572618#Comment_121572618

The point is that there is nothing about the nature of the work, which is contingent on an entrenched hierarchical separation. Whatever skills are necessary to function in those roles are learnt. An officer starts off as a fairly useless addition to a unit and generally gets worse from there. All while being paid many times more than those actually doing the important work.

I don't think it particularly relevant looking to examples from decades past, in countries with wildly different social and educational situations. The point is that now, today, the idea that an officer corps is necessary for the functioning of a unit is an outdated idea. Any role filled by the position of an officer could and often is accomplished by an enlisted person or warrant officer. The meat and potatoes, as you put it, is to exist in a political environment that is created by and which serves the propagation of the officer corp. Most field grades will have very little operational experience, especially nowadays with combat pretty hard to come by. These are the people who make the decisions which impact those who actually have to carry out the tasks involved in conducting warfare. The yawning chasm between those who sit in S/G shops quibbling over PowerPoints formats and those who do work.

drop table Users

https://archive.ph/Tb31u

The Pentagon is Trying to Rebuild the Arsenal of Democracy

It’s not just one war or two. How do you fight three at once?

By Jack Detch

——

Interesting quote in there that EU companies already produce 600,000 to 700,000 shells per year by end of 2023

The biggest problem remains of course not industrial (the arms industries are booming) but political, especially the Republicans dragging feet

Markcheese

I don't think the US really wants to be the arsenal of democracy any more -

It seems to be entering a more isolationist phase , and not just trumpian republicans , hardly surprising considering the balls ups they made in iraq and Afghanistan,

In a way their response in Ukraine may be a blip