Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting

hometruths · 11-10-2023 01:05PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121223510#Comment_121223510

That presumably explains most of it. My peers were looking at buying apartments mid late 20s, trading up early 30s.

And I guess nowadays most in their mid late 20s cannot afford to buy apartments anyway, so they're skipping that step out of necessity.

DataDude · 11-10-2023 01:21PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121223655#Comment_121223655

Wish I wasn’t farting around trying to buy a new car in my early 20s and instead put the money down on a 2 bed in 2013. Although no idea if finance was coming back to the masses by then.

Don’t know of anyone my age who even half talked about buying until late 20s. Perhaps a hangover from the crash where nobody was talking about it as a good financial move. Missed opportunity.

11-10-2023 02:34PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121223414#Comment_121223414

Exactly this. People saying it's more complicated than just getting on the ladder are wrong IMO. I was renting in a lovely area with great schools around and walking distance to the city, and the landlord said he was happy with us and we could stay as long as we wanted... until the RPZ came in and he magically found a nephew down the country that needed the apartment. Renting is just too precarious. I would suggest getting a 2 bed at a minimum though, even if it meant going a bit farther out. I'm not even sure banks will give a mortgage on the same terms for a 1 bed, isn't it 20% deposit at least? Also, there are lots of schemes like HTB etc. for FTBs, make use of them. You only get one chance at being a FTB, don't blow it. (FWIW I used HTB to buy a house 3 years ago that I now couldn't afford if I was to try buy it today, even with the 4X wage).

SharkMX · 11-10-2023 02:40PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121223612#Comment_121223612

That was our plan but as much as we save houses are going up by more as we save. We are going backwards. Time to takle what we have and settle for something less than what we were saving for. That way we can jump ahead of the cart instead of watching it get further in front of us as we run to catch up

Villa05 · 11-10-2023 07:24PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121224246#Comment_121224246

I suspect you might have trouble buying an "entry level" apartment as that's what the state is buying and I would suspect the funds also as they may move away from financing building to buying existing stock

PommieBast · 11-10-2023 09:03PM

@danfrancisco83

I was renting in a lovely area with great schools around and walking distance to the city, and the landlord said he was happy with us and we could stay as long as we wanted... until the RPZ came in and he magically found a nephew down the country that needed the apartment.

My story is not vastly different. Moved into my (then) place in 2013 and until RPZ came along had never had any rent increases, but once it came in he would go as far as having the full rise calculated down to the single Euro. Eventually sold up. Guessing he was the type of landlord who previously only did rental reviews when tenants moved on.

Bass Reeves · 11-10-2023 09:09PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121225967#Comment_121225967

That was the way it mostly worked with a lot of LL's. They reset to market rents with new tenants. However those who understood the market better decided to change that system. A lot of LL's got caught by RPZ's.

11-10-2023 09:36PM

Turned out to be a blessing in disguise, gave us the kick we needed.

Timing belt · 11-10-2023 11:01PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121223655#Comment_121223655

I think the fact that FTB assistance via tax relief, grants or HTB have increased so much that people are holding out to maximise it and use for forever home.

if these were removed from the market then I think there would be more activity with people trading up/down. This negative equity and the differential on mortgage min deposit between FTB’s and non FTB’s have had the biggest impact on the big reduction of people moving up down the property ladder.

Like any intervention in a market there are unintended consequences. The other good example is RPZ’s and the impact they have had on rental market.

I suspect that if governments didn’t intervene on housing at all we wouldn’t see half the problems.

Bass Reeves · 12-10-2023 07:18AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121226493#Comment_121226493

If the.most you can build is 30k houses a year and demand is 40-50k/ year over a 5-8 year period you will always have price pressure on houses both existing and new builds.

What government support dose idms it loads the system towards those FTB's. Whether that is a good or bad thing is hard to decipher. On one hand these are the priority for housing. It probably also creates a construction industry that tends towards smaller units. However bigger units would tie up more labour during construction.

A person moving looking for a larger units will also be selling a property. Most of these will have bought a property 10+ years ago. For those that bought 7-12years ago they will have decent equity build up in there house/apartment. Someone that bought an property in that period probably paid 50% of today's value and may have a 30+%of the mortgage paid off during a low interest environment. They would have been saving as well over the last 5 years as there repayments would have been moderate

Government intervention was originally intended to stimulate the restarting of house building. However regulations and buyer expectations have made house building expensive. Because of this it relatively hard to withdraw these supports.

Maybe the allowing of HTB for buyers of second hand properties will allow buyers to compete better with investors who at present would be out bidding first time owner occupiers for properties that decent returns in RPZ's

12-10-2023 07:44AM

Looks like foreign investors are still confident in Irish CRE. Perhaps it isn’t all doom and gloom.

https://archive.ph/3UrlX

Villa05 · 12-10-2023 09:42AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121226868#Comment_121226868

If retail is down 30% and offices down more, it will always perk up interest

Notable that investors are expecting more repricing and that they are looking at in student accommodation and offices with government contracts

A state flush with cash should be looking at those areas themselves to reduce outgoings into the future and generate an income stream for a sector that claims to be underfunded

however with recent declines in CRE values globally (across all sectors), they still see a degree of unrealistic vendor pricing in the Irish market, and repricing will have to go further for meaningful further investment in CRE

Timing belt · 13-10-2023 12:57AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121226809#Comment_121226809

I understand why HTB was introduced. And yes it priorities FTB’s over other cohorts in the housing market. introducing it to second hand market would give FTB’s opportunity to more supply but that means it’s reducing elsewhere (I.e rental, social, trader up/down).

Rental are somewhat capped on price by yields if it was previously rented but can still compete and outbid and as a result just push up prices.

social housing whether via a AHB or directly with the council have targets to meet and money thrown at them so will definitely outbid FTB’s and push prices up.

second hand / Trade up/down will be at a disadvantage to FTB’s and this is where it really matters as they will be buying and selling (unless they are emigrating) so will end up staying put and as a result less supply which pushes prices higher.

At the end of the day unless the government build more and fast all that is happening is a game of musical chairs where the available supply to buy gets shorter every time the music stops.

The only difference whoever is in government makes is whatever cohort they give priority to at the expense of others and the more they do this the more we will see unintended consequences that distort the market.

Timing belt · 13-10-2023 01:15AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121227216#Comment_121227216

Great idea get the government to throw more money at a problem that can’t just be fixed with just money.

And the government are already doing what you have suggested via AHB…. I.e buying an asset which generate cash flows to buy more and repair existing properties.

Did you ever ask yourself Why would the government increase its national debt by getting councils to build and as a result having to consolidated the debt into the official government debt figure which in turn would end up with the government paying more on its debt as yields on gov bonds increases all.

The days of councils holding the asset and debt went out the window back in 80/90’s (along with trade unions in the private sector) when the likes of Italy got away with fudging its national debt so it would meet EU standards and look like they didn’t have a debt problem.

Instead set up not for profit entity that is run as a business (aka AHB’s) and give them money which they can use as collateral to borrow more money and build houses and none of the debt is consolidated into government debt.

timmyntc · 13-10-2023 08:00AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121230626#Comment_121230626

If there's anything the irish are world leaders at, its accounting (or finding loopholes)

Villa05 · 13-10-2023 10:13AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121230626#Comment_121230626

I think it would be prudent for the state to purchase an asset that generates a return significantly greater than the cost of borrowing.

Need to be very careful setting up a state wealth fund now as the everything bubble begins deflating

14 billion in extra spending announced Tuesday, it's not like we need to borrow for capital infrastructure

Cal4567 · 13-10-2023 02:30PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121230626#Comment_121230626

I thought that was the issues with AHB, their debt is still classified as State debt?

13-10-2023 05:56PM

It might just be market saturation as about 4 or 3 new developers are within 5km of each other.

The 3 bed in the second tranch is 10k cheaper that the first launch on the other hand the second tranch of the 3bed in a development about 10km away is up 15k

Thargor · 13-10-2023 07:28PM

Sorry for off topic but who is the mod on this forum please? Need an old post with too much info about our house removed...

herbalplants · 13-10-2023 08:04PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121234224#Comment_121234224

@L1011

PommieBast · 13-10-2023 08:13PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121234224#Comment_121234224

Suggest using Flag button, and under Report explain the situation in the Reason section.

L1011 · 13-10-2023 08:21PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121234531#Comment_121234531

Do this and one of the multiple mods (its not just me) will get to it @Thargor

amacca · 13-10-2023 08:29PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121226493#Comment_121226493

I think your suspicion is correct

Govt meddling imo has been mostly detrimental....but as always the morons with the lingo and the clipboards know better

Thargor · 14-10-2023 10:14AM

David McWilliams querying why everything they do seems to be designed to raise prices in the IT today:

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2023/10/14/david-mcwilliams-my-verdict-on-budget-2024/

Villa05 · 15-10-2023 09:36AM

This time it's different!

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/not-a-good-look-anger-after-housing-minister-darragh-obrien-mixes-with-anglo-maple-10-builder-at-golf-fundraiser-for-fianna-fail/a424465833.html

Villa05 · 15-10-2023 10:35AM

Frees up some labour, I guess

Investors have started handing back the keys to their office properties as the crisis in Ireland’s €50 billion commercial property market deepens, the Business Post can reveal.

As asset values continue to plunge amid a historic cycle of interest rate hikes, owners have begun surrendering properties to lenders in a sign of acute stresses that have emerged in the market over recent months.

https://www.businesspost.ie/news/turmoil-in-e50bn-commercial-property-market-as-investors-hand-office-keys-back/

Villa05 · 15-10-2023 12:18PM

The budget measures on housing assessed

“It would be hard to devise a more anti-poor way of giving money out than by giving it to people who have mortgages,” – Ciarán Casey, economic historian with the University of Limerick, on mortgage interest relief.

“The scheme is poorly targeted with respect to incomes, location and house prices. It has socially regressive impacts,” – consultancy firm Mazars on HTB.

“Maybe the stupidest tax relief of recent times, against stiff competition,” – Barra Roantree, assistant professor of economics at Trinity College Dublin, on landlord tax relief.

Mortgage interest relief

The net wealth of homeowners is on the left. For those whose eyesight can’t make it out, the tiny slivers on the right hand side are the net wealth of renters.

In 2020, this was €303,900 for homeowners compared to €5,300 for rented households.

https://www.thejournal.ie/irish-government-housing-policies-6196644-Oct2023/

wassie · 15-10-2023 02:02PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121240585#Comment_121240585

Of course it is.

https://www.ontheditch.com/attorney-general-property-giant/

15-10-2023 06:36PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121241454#Comment_121241454

What’s the issue?

It is fair to assume that he was named as a Respondent based on his position as AG. The current AG is now probably one of the Respondents.

As he is no longer a public servant, I’m not sure why you, or the Ditch think he shouldn’t be employed in a matter related to commercial and constitutional law, after all, that seems to be his area of expertise.

Another nothing story aimed at the easily outraged.

Villa05 · 18-10-2023 11:19AM

Housing destroying the golden goose

“Housing is a huge problem,” she said.

“I feel like a broken record at this stage. We’re seeing it every day in terms of job offerings being turned down and jobs being accepted in good faith and if a relocation is involved and a candidate finds it is much more expensive than they thought it was going to be.

“Availability rather than affordability is the big issue now.

https://www.independent.ie/news/brain-drain-fuelled-by-accommodation-crisis-as-young-professionals-seek-lower-living-costs-abroad/a1677330830.html

Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting