Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121198338#Comment_121198338

So there is no one in there now? If that is the case then their should be an empty property tax on it

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121198375#Comment_121198375

No, there is a couple still in it and they are overholding.

The owner cant get them out.

Its all in the Posters description of events.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121198400#Comment_121198400

sorry I missed that

The Student

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121198294#Comment_121198294

Which do you think is more likely to happen?

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121198531#Comment_121198531

Well if you have watched primetime there are dozens of people being chucked into the same room so not for nothing but they are both happening. what is also missing is there will be a % of people not showing up anywhere in the stats and there are some landlords who will have a place with say 2/3/4 rooms and will have nothing but bunkbeds in them and you can be sure as sh1t the landlord is not making this known.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121197205#Comment_121197205

Anyone holding long Bonds made a big bet that rates would fall with either interest rate cuts or QE. That’s one big bet when rates were on the floor. To put it simple terms it’s the equivalent of mortgaging your house and then putting all the money on a bet that Uruguay would beat the all blacks tonight.

The only exception is people holding long bonds for regulatory purposes where they are required to do so. And if they haven’t hedged the interest rate risk then they deserve to be burned because yet again the made a big risky bet that rates wouldn’t rise and thought they could save by not paying for the hedge. Yet again in layman terms the equivalent of buying a new boat and not insuring it despite the weather forecast predicting a storm.

The last point and probably the most important when comparing it to the impact of the GFC is who owns most of long bonds in circulation and how will any losses they have impact the real economy.

Seeing as we just undertook the largest QE ever seen where central banks bought long bonds in exchange for cash/call money. It s safe to say that central banks will take the biggest hit which will never make its way into the real economy. So comparing to shareholders losses in the GFC is pointless and is nothing more than click bat.

Not to sure if this is just you saying this or if something David McWilliams is using to increase viewers so he can get paid advertising. Let’s not forget that this is the so called expert that advised the government to right a blank cheque to the banks and made the whole mess 1m times worse as it created runs on banks in other countries as they piled into Irish banks thanks to this blank cheque.

I see sheep

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121197098#Comment_121197098

My heart bleeds for this guy who kicked a pregnant woman (who's been paying his rent in Canada for years) out of her house.

SharkMX

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121199898#Comment_121199898

He didnt kick a pregnant woman out of his house. He is getting married, living his new life in his new country and is selling his assets in Ireland so that he can get on with his new life with his new wife.

We were all renting and got more than the required notice. We dont blame him for wanting to get on with his own life at all. Its not his fault that he has to sell his house in Ireland.

I see sheep

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121199933#Comment_121199933

Good for him hope he has a great life in Canada.

Being a landlord is a way to make money and like any other way it's not without ups & downs, everyone knows that going in.

Zenify

AIB August Property Report has a different tune than before:

"The last time prices fell for this length of time was late 2011"

"Looking ahead, the rising interest rates environment will likely continue to act as a headwind to homebuyer activity and exert some further downward pressure on prices"

The report states that we need 30,000 units per year of new homes that we are meeting. I thought that went up? They do say that there is a backlog and that's why it isn't enough right now.

housing-market-bulletin-august-2023.pdf

SharkMX

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121200211#Comment_121200211

Going to be some car crash when interest rates start coming down too.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121199898#Comment_121199898

Of course he is a typical vulture LL. He had emigrated and was probably unsure if he would stay abroad and make his new life there so he rented his house to a group of people he knew.

From the look of it he rented it at about 50% of the market value. Of course there was no blame on the idiot and his gf that got pregnant in shared accommodation. If he had not decided to sell that couple would have to move out anyway as shared accommodation is unsuitable for a family.

He also gave them substantial notice it seems. As everything in the private rental sector no good deed goes unpunished. Your post shows your lack of understanding and is a completely blind attitude as well it the reason LL leave the sector

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121200211#Comment_121200211

I think 30k does not count the supply needed to make up on previous years of shortfall.

Something like 50k is needed to meet demand.

Emblematic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121198235#Comment_121198235

I would say that scenario is comparatively rare in practice.

SharkMX

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121200976#Comment_121200976

As someone who is looking at houses for the last while im seeing a lot of similar properties. ex rentals and even some with tenants still in them.

I dont think its rare at all. Clearly a lot of rentals are being sold around where im looking anyway. The EA even told me for one viewing I was trying to arrange that the vendor had just put it on the market to get some bids in but they were probably going to sell to the council in the end as the tenants didnt want to move out. Practically told me I was wasting my time going to see it.

Emblematic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121201161#Comment_121201161

Well at least the tenants get to keep their home.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121200976#Comment_121200976

Ten years ago it was not unusual for a couple to rent a two bed apartment/ house before moving into buy. Nowadays they rent one bed apartment. If a one bed is sold it's a single person moving in there virtually never a couple.

If a two bed is sold it's a single person or a couple who are not planning on having children. Most two beds are now rented to small families units, couple with 1-2 children or a lone parent with two children.

In 90% of situation's where a LL sells if the house goes to an owner occupier the residential footprint number will drop by 40-50% on average.

As well all my children rented at some stage in every house they were in every bed room was occupied. There was never more than two common rooms ( kitchen and sitting rooms) if there was a third common room or a home office it was used as a bed room. It was the same 40 years ago when I rented except double bed room where two single beds fitted were shared

These situations are very common

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121201360#Comment_121201360

+1

Every rental I've ever lived in had 0 spare rooms. When renting, leaving a room empty costs you money, almost always look for someone to fill. And on top of that, privately rented student homes typically had 2 beds in most bedrooms - when landlords sell a student rental the occupancy rates plummet in comparison

Emblematic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121201360#Comment_121201360

I was responding to what I thought was an exaggerated example of seven or eight tenants being removed in order to house a couple. I would still maintain that this example is fairly rare.

I can understand some reduction in occupancy. A couple may purchase a property with a view to starting a family and for period of time will have unoccupied rooms until they fill them with offspring. But this is necessary and understandable. It is not, after all, about cramming as many people as possible into as few rooms as possible. The fact that some landlords do this does not make it right.

PeadarCo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121201360#Comment_121201360

This situation is arguably the norm. Given the current rental prices its far cheaper to rent a room. Realistically it's very hard for most people to rent their own place and then buy. The cost versus income doesn't make financial sense. People will rent a room just to save money to get a deposit.

A lot of house shares these days have more in common with bed sits especially in situations where house mates don't have pre existing relationships/friendships. Basically people rent a room and aside from that you just have the bare minimum of a common room and kitchen. Every other room will be converted into a bedroom. They are just bedsits under a different name.

However when landlords renting these places sell to an owner occupier, the owner occupier will not tolerate the previous occupancy levels unless they are financially desperate. So while these house shares are not ideal what's even worse for the rental market is these houses being sold.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121200976#Comment_121200976

I was renting in two houses in the past 10 years, both were sold and both were rented by a number of adults at least equal to the number of bedrooms. 3 adults in the first, 4 in the second.

All my friends were in similar situations. Now I own a house, 4 bedrooms, 2 adults living in 1 room and I've no wish or need to take in a tenant.

I see sheep

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121200574#Comment_121200574

Sayonara

SharkMX

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121201399#Comment_121201399

The one I was in that I was talking about had 1 couple and 3 single people when we moved in first. 2 ended up moving their girlfriends in a few months down the line when the landlord said that was ok with him.

To sometimes in rentals you get extra people moving in. Same can happen for single people owning houses too, but its probably much rarer these days.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121201764#Comment_121201764

For me the difference is that no tenant will treat your own house with the same care that you do. It would bug me to see someone being messy or careless with appliances and furniture, so there's no chance of renting out rooms to anyone, even if i knew we would get on well.

In a rental, no one in the house really cares if the floors get scratched, or someone puts a hole in the couch,

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121201500#Comment_121201500

But yet the council dont house social tenants in house shares, which would dramatically clear down the waiting lists, if not eliminate them altogether.

PeadarCo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121202305#Comment_121202305

Ye but I'd argue a lot of people are clueless about the reality of house shares in the current market. We've seen some of this on the thread when it comes to the numbers of people in rented accommodation versus owner occupied.

There are more practical issues as well, unless it's a council owned house, I imagine it would be hard to convince existing landlords and tenants to take some one from the social housing list. When you put a group of random people in a house living together interpersonal relations can be hard at the best of times. If there are issues with the person/people from the council it would just add another layer of complication on an already delicate situation.

In terms of using council houses for house shares it's a good idea in the short-term. But its short-term, the reality is that house shares are not really suitable for the long term. Even if that's the reality for a lot of people now unfortunately. I imagine there would be significant push back against this idea politically. The council would also have to get involved in situations where house mates fell out. I doubt they want to deal with this hassle.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121202411#Comment_121202411

All fair point and I agree that it wouldnt be a politically popular deision.

But its a perfectly legal practice and is commonplace for every other cohort in society. Students, working professionals, people who have seperated from their partner and so forth.

It doesnt make sense that social tenants should be insulated from this reality, when its a loved experience for those that pay their own way.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121202411#Comment_121202411

The only way the Council could do it is to make it voluntary. If 2-3 single people are on the housing list give them.the option of combining there request for social housing. While not all wound opt for it a few nights fit got them up the priority list

delusiondestroyer

What do people think, will property get cheaper outside dublin? Or would it be better to just pull the trigger and buy now? will the interest rates drop from 5% would there be any point in fixing at 5% or just go with variable?

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121201699#Comment_121201699

Very taughtful insightful counter post